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Maritime issues are increasingly at the heart of security issues between the United States and China. Historically, the Taiwan issue had dominated the relationship, but increasingly issues such as close in reconnaissance, the South China Sea, and different views on exclusive economic zone rights are shaping the security agenda. In each of these areas, the two sides are far apart. U.S. routine practices of air and sea-based reconnaissance well outside territorial waters is met with indignation by Chinese leaders. Chinese assertive policy regarding its claims of the Spratly islands has provoked several Southeast Asian nations and drawn U.S. diplomatic attentions to the region. Chinese claims on EEZ rights are outliers internationally, however the United States stands outside the key international treaty that governs such rights.

Overlaying these potentially conflicting national interests, both sides have engaged in military shifts. China has maintained double-digit growth in its military budget for nearly 20 years, with substantial attention to the naval realm. Chinese diesel submarines and advanced combat aircraft have brought the People’s Liberation Army to modern levels. New types of systems such as ballistic missile launching submarines and anti-ship ballistic missiles are changing the vary nature of China’s maritime capabilities. As the United States winds down two wars in the Middle East, its military remains attentive to these changes and includes doctrinal and force posture changes. New deployments in Singapore, Guam, and Australia supplement enhanced partnerships with the Philippines and Vietnam, and a reinvigoration of traditional alliances.

The interaction between potentially conflictual national interests and a dynamic military situation raises concerns about the future between the two giants astride the Pacific.

About the panelists

Admiral Gary Roughead is a 1973 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy. Among his six operational commands, Admiral Roughead was the first officer to command both classes of Aegis ships, having commanded USS Barry (DDG 52) and USS Port Royal (CG 73). As a flag officer, he commanded Cruiser Destroyer Group 2, the George Washington Battle Group; and U.S. 2nd Fleet/NATO Striking Fleet Atlantic and Naval Forces North Fleet East. Ashore, he served as Commandant, United States Naval Academy, the Department of the Navy’s Chief of Legislative Affairs, and as Deputy Commander, U.S. Pacific Command. He is one of only two officers to have commanded the fleets in the Pacific and Atlantic, commanding the U.S. Pacific Fleet and Joint Task Force 519, as well as U.S. Fleet Forces Command, where he was responsible for ensuring Navy forces were trained, ready, equipped and prepared to operate around the world, where and when needed.

Roughead’s awards include the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, Navy Distinguished Service Medal, Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit, Meritorious Service Medal, Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal, and various unit and service awards.

Roughead became the 29th Chief of Naval Operations Sep. 29, 2007. He retired from active duty, Sept. 23, 2011.

Christopher P. Twomey is an associate professor of national security affairs (with tenure) at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, Calif. In 2004, he received his PhD in politcal science from MIT and joined the NPS faculty, later serving as associate chair for research and as director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict from 2007 to 2009. Today, he works closely with the Departments of Defense and State on a range of diplomatic engagements across Asia and regularly advises PACOM, STRATCOM, and the Office of Net Assessment. His book—The Military Lens: Doctrinal Differences and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations (Cornell, 2010)—explains how differing military doctrines complicate diplomatic signaling, interpretations of those signals, and assessments of the balance of power. He edited Perspectives on Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Issues (2008), and his work has appeared in journals such as Asian Survey, Security Studies, Arms Control Today, Contemporary Security Policy, Asia Policy, Current History, and Journal of Contemporary China. He has previously taught or researched at Harvard, Boston College, RAND, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and IGCC, and is currently a research fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. He has lived in China several times, speaks and reads Chinese, and regularly travels to Asia.

His research interests center on security studies, Chinese foreign policy, general nuclear strategy, strategic culture, statecraft, and East Asian security in theory and practice.

Additional information about his research and teaching can be found here.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Minoru Aosaki, "Banking System and Sovereign Risk in Japan"

After the financial crisis of 2008, European financial markets have experienced sharp increases of sovereign risk. This adversely affected the solvency of banking institutions as they suffered losses from their sovereign holdings and deterioration in their funding conditions. Meanwhile, Japan's sovereign market remained stable, but market participants were cautious as the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the world, and its banking sector holds as much as 44% of domestic sovereign debt. The question is how Japanese policy makers should address the sovereign risk in the banking system. In pursuit of this question, Aosaki compares the market environment in Japan and the Euro Area, examining the reasons banks hold sovereign bonds and the channels that connect sovereign risk with the banking system.

Prashant Pandya, "Cell-based Therapies -- Current Trends and Future Prospects"

Stem cells have been the subject of considerable excitement and debate over the last decade. Stem cell therapy is emerging as a potentially revolutionary new way to treat disease and injury, with wide-ranging medical benefits. Stem cell research provides the opportunity to advance our understanding of human biology and treatment of various diseases. In Pandya’s research, he shares his experience about major challenges related to the commercial development of stem cell therapies and key technology drivers. This research is based on consultations with several prestigious regulatory agencies—including the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency, and Therapeutic Goods Administration of Australia—as well as interviews with 45 CEOs and senior scientists of large and small biotech companies and professors from leading universities across five countries. Pandya’s research reveals that there are many intriguing aspects of stem cells still remaining to be elucidated. Stem cells have the potential to treat an enormous range of diseases and conditions that plague millions of people and offer exciting promise for future therapies. But significant technical hurdles remain that will only be overcome through years of intensive research, and successful commercialization of cell-based therapies requires more than proving safety and efficacy to regulators. Ultimately the therapy must be commercially viable.

Ramnath Ramanathan, "Designing Toxicology Studies for Small Interfering Ribo Nucleic Acid"

The field of medicine has improved drastically over the period of time. Medical treatment has evolved from using plant extracts to chemical drugs to stem cell and gene therapies. Discovery of small interfering Ribo Nucleic Acid (siRNA) was one of the most important recent breakthroughs in the field of medicine. This was due to siRNA’s capability of posttranscriptional gene silencing by destruction of mRNA and thereby reducing the protein synthesis. Though the efficacy studies conducted in vitro and in animal models are promising, there have also been circumstances where there were adverse effects including mortality of animals treated with siRNA. Since RNA interference is a relatively new technique, it is very important to understand the toxicity involved before using it as a therapy. For this purpose, toxicology studies have to be designed in order to address all questions on the safety aspects of siRNA. In addition to the traditional toxicity studies, several other tests will have to be conducted. These additional studies will have to address issues specific to siRNA therapy such as immune activation, formation of tetraplex DNA, down regulation of non-target mRNA, interaction with cellular proteins, etc. Through Ramanathan’s work, he has designed a battery of toxicology studies to understand the side effects so that only relatively safe therapy is tried on humans during clinical trials. Ramanathan will present his findings.

 

In 2011 Yingluck Shinawatra became the 1st female prime minister of Thailand,  the 3^rd member of her family to become prime minister, and the 13th member of her extended family to gain a seat in parliament.  Scholarship on family politics in advanced democracies has been scarce, perhaps because family politics are quasi-aristocratic and therefore do not align with the egalitarianism that informs democratic principles.  What literature does exist tends to treat family politics in terms of political inheritance or occupational following, and as a legacy of the past that is certain to wane with modernization.  When it comes to new democracies, in contrast, scholarship has been more abundant and has treated family politics in terms of corruption, “bossism,” hybridism, and closed games.  Professor Ockey will discuss these differences and present some preliminary findings on the scope and nature of family politics in Thailand, drawing on a database of elected members of parliament since the overthrow of the absolute monarchy in 1932.

Jim Ockey is associate professor (reader) and coordinator in the Department of Political Science at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.  He is an expert on Southeast Asian politics, with a particular focus on democratization in Thailand.

Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America's high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.  

A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia, the forefront of a phenomenon of longer life expectancy and declining birthrates that together yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another couple of decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also is confronting a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face different demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for global competition.

The third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue will focus on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which are facing similar problems. Questions to be addressed include:

• What are the inter-relationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, savings rates, and public and private intergenerational transfers?
• How and why do policy responses to population aging differ in Japan, South Korea, and across different regions of China?
• What are the effects of demographic change on national institutions such as employment practices, pension and welfare systems, and financial systems?
• What policies can or should be pursued to influence future outcomes?
• How will demographic change affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?
• How have patterns of migration impacted society and culture in East Asia, in comparative perspective?
• How will demographic change influence the movement of people across the region and the prevalence of multicultural families?
• What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from each other to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) established the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue in 2009 to facilitate conversation about current Asia-Pacific issues with far-reaching global implications. Scholars from Stanford University and various Asian countries start each session of the two-day event with stimulating, brief presentations, which are followed by engaging, off-the-record discussion. Each Dialogue closes with a public symposium and reception, and a final report is published on the Shorenstein APARC website.

Previous Dialogues have brought together a diverse range of experts and opinion leaders from Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, India, Australia, and the United States. The first Dialogue examined the global environmental and economic impacts of energy usage in Asia and the United States. It also explored the challenges posed by competition for resources and the possibilities for cooperating to develop sustainable forms of energy and better consumption practices. Last year’s Dialogue considered the question of building an East Asian Community similar in concept to the European Union. Participants discussed existing organizations, such as ASEAN and APEC, and the economic, policy, and security implications of creating an integrated East Asia regional structure.

The annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko.