Over the past year, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) has engaged in leading-edge research on demographic change in East Asia. Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at Shorenstein APARC, discusses the recent book Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea, and the workshop on the economic, social, and political/security implications of demographic change in East Asia, held January 20-21 at Shorenstein APARC.

Across Northeast Asia, countries are facing the issue of an aging population, which causes socio-economic challenges that have policy implications. You explore this phenomenon in your forthcoming book Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea. When did aging begin to become an issue and what are some of the greatest factors that you address in the book?

Aging started at different times in the countries of East Asia. The country with the oldest life expectancy in the world and the oldest age structure of its population is Japan. It had a very short baby boom after the war and has had a steep decline in fertility. Mortality has also been falling around the world, and so this creates a change in the population. Japan is already at the fourth stage of demographic transition. South Korea is rapidly moving towards that and already has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Of course, neither of them have policies to reduce fertility; in fact, they are trying to encourage it. China, on the other hand, has long been trying to control fertility and is not as extreme in terms of the population age structure, but it is rapidly changing. China will be older in median age than the United States soon—this is not a trivial factor when you think in terms of the absolute size of the Chinese population.

One of the things that we wanted to study in this project is the premise that the demographic transition is a "problem." It is true that you need to think about and have policy responses to it. But it can also be seen as a sign of success, and as an opportunity. We wanted to reframe the issue and think about evidence on both sides. There is some research highlighted in the book, for example, that looks at the impact of population aging on economic growth, which is one of the first things that comes to many people's minds. For example, if you have a lot of elderly people, they are not in the work force and they need to be supported. It is true that this can be bad for economic growth, but there also are policy and individual responses that may moderate the effects. Our research is trying to highlight several different aspects of aging, including the question of opportunity. For example, there is more investment in individual children now and elderly persons' savings have actually contributed to economic growth. In some aspects, this has been a sign of resiliency for Japan where there are a lot of transfers to the working-age population.

Ronald Lee at the University of California, Berkeley and Andrew Mason at the East-West Center at the University of Hawai'i, who is participating in the January workshop, have been working on the concept of a "second demographic dividend." They find that as countries have an older age structure, there are more people that are saving. In the widely accepted "first demographic dividend," there are more people in the working-age part of the population—more people employed and more people contributing to the GDP. You get a boom contributing to growth. We know that this contributed to Japan and South Korea's earlier growth, and to China's in the 80s and part of the 90s, but only one or two percent of GDP. The question then is whether it is a problem that with aging you are losing that first demographic dividend. A second demographic dividend might arise because people who are preparing for a longer retirement life are saving more, and those savings are then invested in the economy and the investment drives economic growth.

Is there any correlation to demographic issues faced by the United States?

Interestingly, the aging issue is more pronounced in East Asia than in the United States for several reasons. We have a higher fertility rate than in Japan and South Korea, and many other countries in Europe as well. We also historically are much more open to immigration than most other countries, and this has led to a certain vitality in the population mix that has slowed the impact of demographic change. That said, of course, there are issues with having a lot of baby boomers. Sometimes, depending on the specific question or the specific area of policy, you find other factors that are much more important than aging. For example, the growth of healthcare spending has been in the news a lot lately. Although obviously there is an impact from having more elderly people, there are much bigger issues, such as what we are spending per person per age group and the growth of that spending. Just aging per se is not as big of an issue as people might think.

In late January, you will be holding the workshop Comparative Policy Responses to Demographic Change in East Asia: Defining a Research Agenda. What are the major issues you will explore in the conference? Who will be involved? Finally, what is the publication or research project that you will launch from this?

We had an Aging Asia conference in February 2009, co-sponsored with the Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity. The outcome of this is the forthcoming volume, co-edited with Shripad Tuljapurkar of the Department of Biology at Stanford University. We started with a basic survey of the region and thought about the basic trends-demographic, social, and economic-and built upon that to figure out where the gaps are in the literature and where the interesting research questions are. That is where the January 2011 workshop comes in as the next step. We are bringing in some of the same and some different people to focus on three specific themes: economics, society, and politics/security. The upcoming event again focuses on East Asia and there will be a public component, but it is a smaller event and its main goal is to dig deeper into these themes to figure out an interesting research agenda on the policy responses to demographic transition.

We decided to focus again on East Asia, which is the research focus of a lot of our Shorenstein APARC faculty. Masahiko Aoki and Michael Armacost are going to chair sessions, and Gi-Wook Shin is going to kick it all off and talk about the social aspects of demographic change. Andrew Walder will be participating in that session as well. Thomas Fingar will be covering the political and security implications. All Shorenstein APARC faculty have been invited to participate and think about how this issue of demographic change—and particularly policy responses—might be related to their own areas of research. 

An illustration that I like to give when people ask about how demographic change is related to other things is from Andrew Walder when he was talking about China's transition in the 1980s. He received a question about whether or not there had been an impact from the One Child policy. He said that obviously there are many different impacts, but the one thing that he noted was that students in China now, especially if they are only children, are under a lot of career pressure. This has changed the space or the freedom for self-exploration. Why does this have broader implications? Young people see access to political power as one key for their careers and this changes their views about joining the Communist Party, which has big implications for China's political future. This is just one illustration of how we are trying to explore the broader implications of demographic change.

Finally, what is the outcome that you would most hope to achieve through Aging Asia and the upcoming demographic change workshop?

I think that the biggest hope would be to develop a much better understanding of what is going on with demographic change: what are the processes and how is society changing? What are the individual challenges that families are facing and what are they are doing about it? What is the broader social or even global perspective on how this is going to shape our future world? For me, I think about the world that my children are going to grow up in.

Through our research, I hope that we will impact not only the understanding of what has driven past developments, but create policy recommendations for each of the societies that were are examining—including our own—on the opportunities and the challenges related to changes in population. That hopefully will be useful as these different societies think about how to respond.

Our research on the economic, the social, and political/security aspects of demographic change is intended to be tangible for individuals and families as well as for broader national policy.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and with the advent of a new Japanese government, the long-simmering concept of an East Asian Community has come to a boil. Trilateral discussions among China, Japan, and South Korea--the "Plus Three"--have accelerated, including early steps toward formation of a trilateral free trade area. The Obama administration has responded with new interest in regionalism, including discussion of new trans-Pacific trade agreements and a bid to join the budding East Asia Summit process. In November 2010, the trans-Pacific APEC convened in Japan, and the next annual meeting, in 2011, will take place in Hawaii.

This period could shape the future of regionalism in East Asia, but many questions have yet to be answered. On September 9 and 10, 2010, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University convened the second Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue. This distinguished gathering discussed the latest research into the course of regionalism across several dimensions: regional vs. trans-Pacific trade and production networks; traditional and nontraditional security; the intersection of historical memories and national cultures in forging, or thwarting, a new regional identity; and possible futures for the regional order and how it might interact with other transnational institutions. The final summary report from this event is now available online.

The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Asia Health Policy Program have joined with other centers and programs across the university as collaborative partners for the new Stanford Center for Population Research (SCPR). Supporting population research among faculty and students throughout Stanford, the SCPR is led by Professor Shripad Tuljapurkar, co-editor with Karen Eggleston of the book Aging Asia: Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea.

The Stanford Center for Population Research, based in the Institute for Research in Social Sciences, has leadership and involvement across campus including the Humanities, Natural Sciences, Environmental programs, and the Medical School. The goal is to promote, support and develop population studies through collaboration among researchers and training for undergraduate and graduate students, serving as both a resource and nexus for faculty at Stanford across disciplines with interests in population studies, broadly defined.  

The Asia Health Policy Program will work with the Stanford Center for Population Research in studying the implications of demographic change in the Asia-Pacific region. For example, Karen Eggleston is undertaking comparative study of population health trends in China and India with other Stanford faculty associated with SCRP.

AHPP will also support the mission of strengthening the teaching of population studies at the undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral levels, by helping to make connections for students studying demographic change in Asia. The 2011 postdoctoral fellow in Asia health policy, Qiulin Chen, will be studying population aging in China in comparative perspective. Shorenstein APARC’s affiliation with the SCRP will also help to reinforce the new Shorenstein APARC initiative studying policy responses to population aging in East Asia, kicking off with a workshop in January 2011.

Understanding the emotional connection that people have to products inspires the innovative research and work of current Corporate Affiliates Program Fellow Yuichi Moronaga.

Moronaga engaged in policy-related work for Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) for nearly a decade, and he most recently served as a deputy manager for the Prime Minister's Cabinet Secretariat. As a student, Moronaga, who holds a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering and a master's degree in biomedical engineering from Keio University in Yokohama, studied universal design--the design of making products, such as drinking fountains, and spaces, such as public parks, accessible to all. Moronaga took universal design one-step further by considering the emotional aspect of design, factoring positive feeling into accessibility.

In his work for METI, Moronaga applied his creativity and knowledge of universal design to numerous projects, including a child-focused policy agenda. Moronaga and his colleagues considered the psychology and physique of children when developing the agenda, noting the curiosity of children for exploring places considered dangerous by adults--those that are high, dark, and enclosed--and the broad range of variations in children's physiques. Mean data is not appropriate for child-focused design, says Moronaga, and so he and his team measured approximately 50 different body parts in order to provide a broad data set for designers to work from. After five years, child-focused design is catching on in Japan. A Kids Design award is now in place and the Kids Design Association, a non-profit organization, monitors products, businesses, and public spaces for child safety. Nearly 80 businesses in Japan are now dedicated to child-focused design. At the recent APEC Forum held in Japan, METI sponsored a booth displaying child-friendly products. Moronaga hopes that the trend will spread to other countries.

At the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), Moronaga is now engaging in research about essential value, which he describes as the "background story" behind companies and their products. Marketing based on essential value focuses on such things as a tradition of excellence, quality materials, and careful craftsmanship behind a company or product, which causes consumers to feel good about their purchase. The online shoe retailer Zappos, which emphasizes its customer service, is an example of a company that markets essential value. Moronaga is currently studying how social media enhances essential value, such as the way that positive consumer recommendations raise the value of a product. Already widespread in the United States-especially California, Moronaga says consumer reviews are catching on more in Japan.

Moronaga values the opportunity to speak with people at Stanford University and in local companies about his research and work experience, and about topics ranging from the environment to politics. Amidst the prevalence of hybrid cars and exciting green technology research in California, he was surprised to find that energy-saving technologies, such as solar panels, are not as widespread as in Japan. On the other hand, he appreciates discussions and hearing American perspectives on political topics, such as security issues, that he feels are less commonly discussed in Japan.

Moronaga views the connections with people that he and his family are making while at Shorenstein APARC this year as long term and he hopes that his son, who is four years old, will have a happy adjustment to living in the United States and remember the experience for the rest of his life.

October 15, 2010 was the 100th anniversary of the birthday of Edwin O. Reischauer, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and a key leader in establishing the field of East Asian studies. George R. Packard, president of the United States-Japan Foundation, worked with Reischauer in the 1960s and recently published a biography about him entitled Edwin O. Reischauer and the American Discovery of Japan. Packard spoke at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center on October 28 to share his perspective on Reischauer's life and career.

Reischauer was born to missionary parents in Japan, where he spent the first part of his life. According to Packard, Reischauer had a lifelong appreciation for Japan that deepened with time, but he also recognized that the more time he spent living in and studying Japan, the more that there was for him still to learn. Reischauer attended Oberlin College as an undergraduate and Harvard University as a doctoral student. During World War II, he worked for the U.S. State Department translating intercepted messages.

The Pearl Harbor-era view of Japan in the United States was that of a "treacherous" country-one that still surfaces from time to time, according to Packard. Reischauer's life's work was to improve American education and understanding about Japan. While teaching at Harvard University, Reischauer, along with China studies pioneer John King Fairbank, helped to build the field of East Asian studies in the United States. Packard credits their efforts for changing the British imperial-era designation of the "Far East" to "East Asia." In addition to his works such as Japan, Past and Present and A History of East Asian Civilization, Reischauer was committed to writing about Japan in popular publications like Reader's Digest.

Reischauer served as U.S. Ambassador to Japan from 1961-1966. While there, he helped to diminish the "Occupation mentality" of Americans in Japan and planted the seeds for the eventual return of Okinawa, said Packard. During his time as ambassador, Reischauer suffered many professional and personal setbacks, including the death of President Kennedy, a supporter of his efforts; the escalation of the Vietnam War, for which he drew criticism although he was not a proponent of it; and being stabbed by a deranged student. According to Packard, after the stabbing incident Reischauer was deeply concerned about generating negative sentiment toward Japan, and thus intentionally kept quiet about it to the media. After returning to Harvard University in the late 1960s, Reischauer continued to draw criticism for the Vietnam War and in later decades was labeled as a "Japan apologist."

Despite his critics, the wisdom of Reischauer's work in academia and government rings true today, as evidenced by Japan's place as a global economic power and the successful and significant role that the U.S.-Japan relationship plays in the peace and economic stability of East Asia. 

In an interview with The Incheon Daily, Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein APARC and KSP, stresses the significance of Incheon's designation as host city to the 2010 Asia Economic Community Forum. He suggests that Incheon, and in particular the Songdo Free Economic Zone, could become an important meeting ground for Asian nations, in part because it represents a geographical and political compromise, between China and Japan. For this reason, the time has come to seriously reflect upon the role that Songdo will play in Asian unification. According to Shin, Asia should do as Europe has done, following the example of the European Union, which, he maintains, has brought Europe together and strengthened the region. In this integrated Asia, he argues further, Incheon Songdo is perhaps the city best suited to serve as the regional hub.