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The recent developments in North Korea's summit diplomacy and the feasibility of CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement) of the nuclear program have received unprecedented responses, both optimistic and pessimistic, from the international community.

Please stay tuned to this page for APARC researchers' commentary and analysis on the CVID of the North Korean nuclear program through articles published in various news media.

Latest Commentaries:

How to Keep the Ball Rolling on North Korean Negotiations (East Asia Forum, May 2, 2019)

Why Walking Away from Kim's Deal May Have Been the Right Move (Axios, February 28, 2019)

Success of Second Trump-Kim Summit Will Lie in the Details (Axios, February 26, 2019)

The Second Trump-Kim Summit Must Settle the Big Questions (The National Interest, February 19, 2019)

Normalising, Not Denuclearising, North Korea (East Asia Forum, October 3, 2018)

Moon-Kim Summit in Pyongyang Was Promising, But No Game Changer (Axios.com, September 19, 2018)

Towards Normality: What's Next with North Korea? (East Asia Forum Quarterly, September 2018)

 

The Singapore Summit Empowers South Korean Chaebols (The New Republic, June 26, 2018)

Korean Elections Give Moon Momentum, But Could Shift U.S. Alliance (Axios, June 14, 2018)

Despite Lack of Plan, North Korea Denuclearization Could Still Happen (Axios, June 12, 2018)

Ambassador Kathleen Stephens shares reactions following the Trump-Kim summit, including her thoughts on President Trump's pledge to cancel military exercises on the Korean Peninsula (KQED's Forum, 06/12/18)

With North Korea, Let's Not Forget the Big Picture (The Diplomat, June 8, 2018)

"[T]he mere prospect of the June summit has already enhanced Kim's status on the international stage," observes APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, Trump needs leadership and allies to salvage the North Korea summit (Axios, May 25, 2018)

Stanford Scholars Discuss Diplomacy’s Future after U.S.-North Korea Summit Is Canceled (May 24, 2018)

Dan Sneider understands Japanese skepticism of North Korea's conversion to disarmament in Japan, China and South Korea Get Together (The Economist, May 10, 2018)

Future of U.S. troops in South Korea uncertian (Los Angeles Times, May 4, 2018)

Related articles:

A new start or a rerun on the Korean Peninsula? (East Asia Forum, May 6, 2018)

Stanford Panel Discusses North-South Summit and What Happens Next (APARC News, April 28, 2018)

North Korea Summit Diplomacy (The Diplomat, March 30, 2018)

Moon's Bet on the Olympics: What Comes Next? (East Asia Forum, February 18, 2018)

 

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Panmunjom Declaration on April 27, 2018 | Cheong Wa Dae
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Japan is known to have an exceptionally low level of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). The promotion of inward FDI is one of the policy goals of Abenomics structural reforms. This present paper studies the accumulation of Japan's inward FDI stock during the first 3 years of Abenomics (2012–2015), and finds no evidence that Japan's inward FDI stock increased more than the trend before Abenomics started would have predicted. A comparison of the main policies for promoting inward FDI that have been implemented to the real and perceived impediments to inward FDI reveals that it may be advisable to shift the emphasis of the policy to address more regulatory and administrative issues and to reduce the cost of doing business in Japan.

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Asian Economic Policy Review
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Takeo Hoshi
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Using a unique dataset on all major corporate restructuring events in Japan between 1981 and 2010, we assess changes in the role of the main bank in guiding corporate turarounds, and the economic consequences of these changes for distressed firms. We identify firms in distress among all listed firms based on accounting data, and we separately identify firms undergoing corporate restructuring based on a newspaper search for the Japanese term “saiken”. Even though the ratio of distressed firms has not declined, the incidence of saiken restructuring by such firms has become less frequent after the 1990s, indicating a decline in the governance and rescue role of the main bank. When firms undergo saiken, they adopt real adjustments in terms of labor, assets and finance. While the intensity of these adjustments has also declined over time, saiken firms make more significant adjustments than distressed firms that do not undergo restructuring. The role of saiken was an important part of corporate renewal in Japan, and it has declined. In line with existing research, these findings underscore changes in Japanese corporate governance, in particular regarding the decline of the monitoring and restructuring function of the main bank.

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Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
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Takeo Hoshi
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47
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Modern-day markets do not arise spontaneously or evolve naturally. Rather they are crafted by individuals, firms, and most of all, by governments. Thus "marketcraft" represents a core function of government comparable to statecraft and requires considerable artistry to govern markets effectively. Just as real-world statecraft can be masterful or muddled, so it is with marketcraft. 

In his new book, Steven Vogel builds his argument upon the recognition that all markets are crafted then systematically explores the implications for analysis and policy. In modern societies, there is no such thing as a free market. Markets are institutions, and contemporary markets are all heavily regulated. The "free market revolution" that began in the 1980s did not see a deregulation of markets, but rather a re-regulation. Vogel looks at a wide range of policy issues to support this concept, focusing in particular on the US and Japan. He examines how the US, the "freest" market economy, is actually among the most heavily regulated advanced economies, while Japan's effort to liberalize its economy counterintuitively expanded the government's role in practice. 

Marketcraft demonstrates that market institutions need government to function, and in increasingly complex economies, governance itself must feature equally complex policy tools if it is to meet the task. In our era-and despite what anti-government ideologues contend-governmental officials, regardless of party affiliation, should be trained in marketcraft just as much as in statecraft.

SPEAKER

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Steven K. Vogel, Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley

BIO

Steven K. Vogel is the Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He specializes in the political economy of the advanced industrialized nations, especially Japan. He recently completed a book, entitled Marketcraft: How Governments Make Markets Work (Oxford, 2018), which argues that markets do not arise spontaneously but rather are crafted by individuals, firms, and most of all by governments.  Thus “marketcraft” represents a core function of government comparable to statecraft.  The book systematically reviews the implications of this argument, critiquing prevalent schools of thought and presenting lessons for policy.  Vogel is also the author of Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry Are Reforming Japanese Capitalism (Cornell, 2006) and co-editor (with Naazneen Barma) of The Political Economy Reader: Markets as Institutions (Routledge, 2008). His first book, Freer Markets, More Rules: Regulatory Reform in Advanced Industrial Countries  (Cornell, 1996), won the Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. He edited his mother’s book, Suzanne Hall Vogel, The Japanese Family in Transition: From the Professional Housewife Ideal to the Dilemmas of Choice(Rowman & Littlefield, 2013), and a volume on U.S.-Japan Relations in a Changing World(Brookings, 2002).  He won the Northern California Association of Phi Beta Kappa Teaching Excellence Award in 2002, and the UC Berkeley Faculty Award for Outstanding Mentorship of Graduate Student Instructors in 2005.  He has been a columnist for Newsweek-Japan and the Asahi Shimbun, and he has written extensively for the popular press.  He has worked as a reporter for the Japan Times in Tokyo and as a freelance journalist in France. He has taught previously at the University of California, Irvine and Harvard University. He has a B.A. from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Steven K. Vogel, Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley
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The 10th Annual Koret Workshop

The aim of this year's workshop is to assess the current situation surrounding North Korea, and to examine all possible options for dealing with North Korea, from military intervention, containment, or sanctions to diplomatic engagement.

The annual Koret Workshop is made possible through the generous support of the Koret Foundation.

Stanford University

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Under the guidance of the Aspen Institute Congressional Program, thirteen members of Congress convened at Stanford University from March 2-5 to discuss policy options regarding the current North Korea crisis. The representatives deliberated with scholars and practitioners to acquire a better understanding of North Korea and its ruling regime, review the regional actors and their interests, assess the range of potential solutions to the crisis, and determine the role of Congress on this issue.

A report summarizing the program’s dialogue is now available for download. In addition to providing non-attributed comments from the proceedings, the document also includes the itinerary for the three days, the names of participants, as well as a collection of relevant publications.

The Aspen Institute Congressional Program was established in 1983 by former U.S. Senator Dick Clark. The program is for members of the United States Congress, and is both nongovernmental and nonpartisan in design. The program gives senators and representatives the opportunity to delve into complex and critical public policy issues with internationally recognized experts. Lawmakers are given the opportunity to explore policy alternatives in off-the-record settings, while simultaneously building relationships crucial to finding solutions.

 

 

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As the Tokyo-based co-founder and managing partner of global VC fund Fresco Capital, Allison Baum is frequently asked “Why are you in Japan?”  Indeed, with a global network of corporate partners, investors, and portfolio companies, many of them are curious to know why Fresco sees long term potential in the Japanese market. Though Japan is an advanced and well developed economy, the country is struggling with the need to innovate in the face of critical challenges such as a deflationary economy, a rapidly aging population, and an impending automation of the workforce. Fresco’s view is that this environment presents an extremely promising market opportunity for companies addressing challenges in healthcare, education and workplaces of the future. Join us as Allison shares her experience on the challenges and opportunities of expanding to Japan, bridging the cultural divide between Japan and the rest of the world, and discovering firsthand what it takes to successfully build long term partnerships in Japan.

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SPEAKER

Allison Baum, Co-founder and Managing Partner, Fresco Capital

BIO

Allison Baum is a co-founder and managing partner of Fresco Capital, a global, early stage venture capital fund investing in technology companies transforming education, healthcare, and the future of work at scale.  Prior to Fresco, Allison was an early member of the team at General Assembly, a global network for education and career transformation specialising in today’s most in-demand skills, where she developed and launched the company’s first part-time and full-time programs for technology, business, and design in New York.  In 2012, she relocated to Hong Kong to launch their first business in Asia.  Previously, she was a member of the Equity Derivatives team and Cross Asset Sales teams at Goldman Sachs in New York City.  

Allison graduated cum laude from Harvard College with a BA in Economics and a Minor in Film Studies.  She is also a member of the World Economic Forum Global Shapers community, a mentor for emerging women entrepreneurs in Southeast Asia at Wedu Global, a mentor for global social impact entrepreneurs at Endeavour Capital, and was named by Forbes as one of the 30 Top Emerging VC Managers in Asia.

AGENDA

4:15pm: Doors open 
4:30pm-5:30pm: Main Content, followed by discussion 
5:30pm-6:00pm: Networking

RSVP REQUIRED

To RSVP please go to: http://www.stanford-svnj.org/52118-public-forum/2018

For more information on the Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project, please visit the project website at: http://www.stanford-svnj.org

 

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“…factually Japan has made many apologies; but many Koreans and Chinese at the same time feel that those apologies have not been sincere. So there’s a gap between facts and interpretations or public sentiments.”

Twenty years after the Kim-Obuchi summit raised hopes for “a new Japan-Korea partnership for the 21st century”, the Carnegie Endowment for Internatonal Peace gathered diplomats and scholars, including APARC Director Gi-Wook ShIn, for reflection on what polices and initiatives have succeeded or failed since 1998 and why.

A recording of the panel is available online

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Kim-Obchi Summit: 20 Years Later
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In a flurry of developments that left experts stunned, the long-stalled Korean peace train has suddenly left the station. Sitting in the locomotive is the engineer of these events, North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong Un.

Where is the peace train headed? No one really knows. It can easily be derailed. And it could lead not to peace, but to war, writes Sneider.

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"Although peace was the prevailing theme of the opening night at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, the air in the VIP box was charged with awkwardness and intimidation," said researchers at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in a recently published article. "The real test for Moon's leadership begins now."

The full article in East Asia Forum is available here.

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2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games Opening Ceremony | flickr.com: Presidential Security Service(eng.pss.go.kr/) Hyoja-dong Studio(open.pss.go.kr/)
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