A year has passed since the South Korean warship Cheonan sank into the depths of the Yellow Sea, an event attributed to an attack from North Korea and one that rekindled afresh the ongoing tensions between South and North. In that time, Pyongyang has transmitted confusing signals to the world about the strength of its leadership and its intentions toward South Korea, including publishing photos of a steely but frail-looking Kim Jong Il alongside his young heir apparent Kim Jong Un and unexpectedly attacking Yeonpyong Island in late November. It is clear that the Kim Jong Il regime still maintains strong control over its citizens and that the country's nuclear program continues to grow. Nevertheless, there are hints of instability and signs of information from the outside world trickling into North Korea that point to coming change.

During an April 21 television interview, visiting fellow Sang-Hun Choe, an International Herald Tribune journalist with many years of experience reporting on North Korea, addressed the complexity of the country's current political situation, noting the lack of firsthand information and the mixture of fear and genuine belief motivating adherence to the longstanding official party line. Choe emphasized the importance for the countries most closely tied to North Korean political developments—especially South Korea, the United States, and China—to consider the key questions regarding the future of North Korea, including what shape a transfer of power or a regime collapse could take.

Media coverage of North Korea

Reporting on North Korea is no simple matter, due in large part to the government's tight control on the flow of information in and out of the country. "North Korea is so closed that it is almost impossible for journalists to gather firsthand information," stresses Choe. Television and radio broadcasts and the internet are closely monitored in North Korea, and there is a recent move to confiscate mobile phones as they are smuggled into the country.

Choe suggests that a journalist's own interests and the political agenda of his or her country often shape the angle of their coverage of North Korea. For example, the U.S. media tends to focus on North Korean nuclear developments and the resumption of the Six Party Talks, a reflection of the official U.S. defense agenda. Reporting in South Korea is not quite as straightforward. "South Korea's relationship with North Korea is very complex," Choe states. While there is deep resentment toward North Korean attacks on the South, there is also a sense of shared Korean identity that influences South Korean news coverage of North Korea, he says.

Juche and the Kim family dynasty

Tapping into the deeply rooted sense of nationalism that emerged in Korea as a result of great power competition over the peninsula, North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung masterfully applied the principle of juche to found his family's political dynasty. "It [‘juche'] is very difficult to translate," says Choe. "One of the most common English translations is ‘self reliance,' but that does not really explain everything. It is more like ‘in our own way of living' or ‘in charge of our own fate.'"

North Korean citizens do not mindlessly follow the official party ideology, stresses Choe. Some people are motivated by fear of punishment, while others firmly believe in juche. "We have to take these two elements into account when we try to understand North Korea," he says. "There is fear, but there is also pride in their system. Whether you call it ‘brainwashing' or not, it is the reality."

Kim Jong Il's apparently failing health and heir Kim Jong Un's youth and lack of experience weigh heavily on the minds of political analysts. Photos suggest that Kim Jong Il is recovering from a stroke, a fact confirmed several months ago by the South Korean government. According to Choe, the key question now is how long Kim Jong Il will live. "[He] did not expect that he would have a stroke," he says, "so the transition [of power] is being prepared in a hurry." Kim Jong Il's own rise to power was gradual and he held numerous political positions over the years. Despite being made a military general in September, Kim Jong Un's political experience is comparatively limited.

Future concerns and possible scenarios

Despite uncertainties about the transfer of power in North Korea, recent reports suggest that the country continues to develop its nuclear program. In addition to the regional security concerns this poses, the nuclear accident in Japan this March raises environmental safety questions. For example, how would North Korea prepare for or respond to damage to a nuclear facility caused by a natural disaster? "Despite being a very technologically advanced country, Japan has still had a lot of difficulties dealing with its nuclear disaster," Choe emphasizes.

While North Korea's juche ideology continues to legitimize the Kim family dynasty, Choe suggests that the current system cannot last forever, especially with the country's ongoing food shortages and the significant regional economic and political developments of the past few decades. "If you look at Northeast Asia, all of the other former communist countries are more or less thriving by adopting market reforms/economies, and North Korea is left alone," he says. "It is a very poor, isolated country in a very well-to-do neighborhood of the world—it cannot last forever."

Choe downplays the possibility of an Egypt-style revolution in North Korea, but suggests that China, South Korea, and the United States should consider the potential scenarios for the future of North Korean politics. "The big question is when and how change will come," he states. "If the regime collapses, will there be some kind of power struggle between factions? Is China going to intervene?"

China does not necessarily support North Korea's political decisions, including its nuclear program and economic policies, Choe suggests, but the collapse of North Korea could lead to a mass exodus of refugees into its northeastern provinces. Furthermore, he says, "Another concern for China is what will happen on the Korean Peninsula if North Korea collapses. Is South Korea going to take over the northern half of the peninsula and create one unified Korea, or is America? China might not be happy to have a small, but well-to-do pro-America unified Korea right on its border . . . That explains its attitude seemingly ambiguous [toward North Korea.]"

It is certain that the current North Korean political situation is a very puzzling and complex one, with apparently more questions than answers at this time. As Choe suggests, it is most important now for the world—especially China, South Korea, and the United States—to examine the possible future issues and scenarios facing North Korea, and to identify the related key questions in an effort to prepare for the inevitable change that will one day come.

A full recording of Choe's interview is available online at the KEMS TV website (Korean language).

Takeshi Kondo was undergoing training as a new Mitsubishi Electric systems engineer in Kobe, Japan when the massive 7.2-magnitude Great Hanshin earthquake struck in 1995. When Japan was hit by the double disaster of an 8.9-magnitude earthquake and a tsunami in March 2011, Kondo was at Stanford University participating in the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). The March tragedy called to mind the 1995 Kobe earthquake and underscored for him the strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship in the face of adversity.

Kondo, currently a manager for the Strategic IT Business Planning Department of Mitsubishi Electric, is a Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellow for the 2010–2011 academic year. During this rigorous and stimulating year, he has conducted research on non-entertainment applications for augmented reality (AR) technology, audited entrepreneurship classes, and participated in site visits to numerous Bay Area companies. He will present his research findings during a public seminar at the end of May before concluding the program and returning to his position at Mitsubishi Electric's corporate headquarters in Tokyo.

A graduate of Waseda University with BS and MS degrees in industrial and management systems engineering, Kondo majored in combinatorial optimization—the analysis of numerous finite possibilities in order to arrive at the most efficient solution to a problem. He has applied his expertise for the past seventeen years at Mitsubishi Electric, a corporation with five major divisions and approximately one hundred thousand employees worldwide, including the United States. Mitsubishi Electric manufactures products ranging from common home appliances like refrigerators to sophisticated electronic devices such as semiconductor lasers. Its Diamond Vision display system graces San Francisco's AT&T Park and Oakland's Oracle Arena.

Prior to taking up his current position at Mitsubishi Electric, Kondo designed systems related to road operations and management, including traffic information and radio communications systems, and he also took part in a joint government and private sector study of a toll collection system similar to FasTrak. The study group made important technology- and policy-related recommendations to the Japanese government when it was preparing to implement the system throughout the country. Kondo is now engaged in finding ways to develop the IT-side of Mitsubishi Electric's business, testing new systems in-house before putting them on the market.

Kondo is excited about the possible manufacturing applications of AR technology, which to date has mostly been utilized in entertainment. A commonly seen use of the technology is with the throw-distance markings that are digitally overlaid on a field during a television football broadcast. When he returns to Mitsubishi Electric this summer, Kondo plans to advocate the use of AR technology and to explore new ways of implementing it with their manufacturing. His Shorenstein APARC research project advisor has been Henry S. Rowen, co-director of the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship and a specialist on high-tech industries in the United States and Asia. "He is brilliant," emphasizes Kondo.

During his year with the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program, Kondo has audited several entrepreneurship classes in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, noting the profusion of such classes at Stanford University. It has led him to develop an interest in the Bay Area venture capital firms that the Fellows have visited, his first encounters with businesses of this kind. The group has also toured a number of high-tech companies, of which Cisco Systems holds a special attraction for Kondo because of his interest in AR technology.

Of all of his experiences this past year, Kondo has perhaps been most struck by the overwhelming U.S. response to Japan's recovery efforts after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. "It has been very confusing," he says, "but the American people have shown support for us." Japan too demonstrated its friendship when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005—an unprecedented disaster in U.S. history. The Japanese government and private citizens sent significant funds and supplies for relief efforts.

When Kondo returns to Japan in June, he will take with him not only the academic and business expertise that he has gained while participating in the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program but also the memory of the friendship that he has experienced. Building strong ties between the United States and Asia is a core component of Shorenstein APARC's mission. Kondo will join the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program's ever-growing alumni network, connecting him to colleagues throughout Asia and to Shorenstein APARC and Stanford scholars for many years to come.