In this fifth session of the Forum, former senior government officials and other leading experts from the United States and South Korea discussed current developments in North Korea and North Korea policy, the future of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and a strategic vision for Northeast Asia. The session was hosted by the Sejong Institute, a top South Korean think tank, in association with Shorenstein APARC.

Seoul, Korea

Workshops
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Despite growing evidence that China's success in taking advantage of the global system is a function of its willingness to accede to existing norms, pundits, and many academics, continue to predict that China's rise will transform the international system, usually for the worse.  Indeed, one can make a stronger case that China's participation in the US-led global system has transformed China far more than it has changed the institutions and norms that support globalization and facilitate China's rise.

Dr. Thomas Fingar is the Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow. In 2009, he was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

This event is part of the China and the World series.

Philippines Conference Room

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

Selected Multimedia

CV
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Thomas Fingar Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow Speaker FSI
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Demographic changes are profoundly shaping the political, economic, and social landscape of the Asia-Pacific region. How have individuals, families, communities, and policymakers responded? How should they? For example, how will national and social identities transform as population ageing strains traditions of filial piety and immigration disrupts ethnic homogeneity? Will the economies of East Asia languish, or will a "second demographic dividend" spur renewed economic growth? Demographic change can have important psychological and political effects. For example, can one seriously imagine a resurgent, militaristic Japan with a declining and aging population? The responses to demographic change in Japan, South Korea, China, and their neighbors will have great potential long-term effects in the Asia-Pacific region.

This panel discussion, the opening and public portion of a 1-1/2 day workshop that will define a research agenda for the next three years, will bring together selected outside experts and faculty within the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center for an interdisciplinary and comparative discussion of the policy responses to rapid demographic change in East Asia.

  • 3:00p.m. – 3:10p.m.
    Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University: Introduction and welcome
  • 3:10p.m. – 3:25p.m.
    Brian Nichiporuk, RAND Corporation: The Security Implications of Demographic Trends in East Asia
  • 3:25p.m. – 3:40p.m.
    Michael Sutton, East-West Center, Washington, DC: Political & Security Implications of Population Aging in Japan
  • 3:40p.m. – 3:55p.m.
    John Skrentny, Director, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, Professor of Sociology, University of California, San Diego: An East Asian Model to Managing Immigration? Durability & Change in the 2000s.
  • 3:55p.m. – 4:10p.m.
    Chong-En Bai, Chair, Department of Economics, Freeman Chair Professor of Economics, Tsinghua University: Policy Responses to Demographic Change in China
  • 4:10p.m. – 4:25p.m.
    David Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography Chair, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University: Demographic Change in East Asia: Challenges, Options and Evidence
  • 4:25p.m. – 4:40p.m.
    Naohiro Ogawa, Director, Population Research Institute, Nihon University: Population Aging & Changing Human Capital in Japan & other East Asian Countries
  • 4:40p.m. – 4:55p.m.
    Andrew Mason, Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii, Manoa & Senior Fellow, East-West Center, Hawaii: Population Aging and the Generational Economy: Key Findings
  • 4:55p.m. – 5:10p.m.
    James Raymo, Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison The “Second Demographic Transition” and family change in Japan
  • 5:10p.m. – 5:30p.m.
    Discussion/Conclusion

Bechtel Conference Center

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 724-8480 (650) 723-6530
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
Gi-Wook Shin_0.jpg PhD

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-seven books and numerous articles. His books include The Four Talent Giants: National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India (2025)Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007);  and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

Selected Multimedia

Director of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director of Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, APARC
Date Label
Gi-Wook Shin Director Speaker Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
Andrew Mason Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii, Manoa & Senior Fellow Panelist East-West Center, Hawaii
Naohiro Ogawa Director, Population Research Institute Panelist Nihon University
David Bloom Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Chair, Department of Global Health and Population Panelist Harvard University
Chong-En Bai Chair, Department of Economics, Freeman Chair Professor of Economics Panelist Tsinghua University
John Skrentny Director, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, Professor of Sociology Panelist University of California, San Diego
Michael Sutton Panelist East-West Center, Washington, DC
Brian Nichiporuk Panelist RAND Corporation
James Raymo Professor of Sociology Panelist University of Wisconsin, Madison
Panel Discussions
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Kirk R. Smith will speak about his current research on health-damaging and climate-changing air pollution from household energy use in developing Asia, including field measurement and health-effects studies in India, China, and Nepal, compared to other countries such as Mexico and Guatemala. The work encompasses developing and deploying small, smart, and cheap microchip-based monitors as well as tools for international policy assessments.

Dr. Smith is Professor of Global Environmental Health and Director of the Global Health and Environment Program at the School of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley.  Previously, he was founder and head of the Energy Program of the East-West Center in Honolulu, where he still holds appointment as Adjunct Senior Fellow in Environment and Health after moving to Berkeley in 1995. He serves on a number of national and international scientific advisory committees including the Global Energy Assessment, National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, the Executive Committee for WHO Air Quality Guidelines, and the International Comparative Risk Assessment. He participated along with many other scientists in the IPCC's 3rd and 4th assessments and thus shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He holds visiting professorships in India and China and bachelors, masters, and doctoral degrees from UC Berkeley. In 1997, he was elected a member of the US National Academy of Sciences. In 2009, he received the Heinz Prize in Environment.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Kirk R. Smith Professor of Global Environmental Health and Director of the Global Health and Environment Program at the School of Public Health Speaker University of California, Berkeley
Seminars
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Professor Ogawa will present recent work on declining fertility and the rising cost of children in East Asian countries, using measures of investment per child from the National Transfer Accounts analysis of public and private investments in children's education and health. He and his co-authors also study whether the amount of resources allocated to children has been crowded out by the increasing amount of resources needed for support of the elderly in Japan and other aging societies.

Naohiro Ogawa is professor of population economics at the Nihon University College of Economics and Advanced Research Institute for Sciences and Humanities (ARISH), Tokyo. He is also Director of the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI). Over the past thirty years he has written extensively on population and development in Japan and other Asian countries. More specifically, his research has focused on issues such as socioeconomic impacts of low fertility and rapid aging, modeling demographics and social security-related variables, as well as policies related to fertility, employment, marriage, child care, retirement and care for the elderly. His recent work includes measuring intergenerational transfers. He has published numerous academic papers in internationally recognized journals. In collaboration with other scholars he has also edited several journals and books among which the most recent one is Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy (2007). Naohiro Ogawa has served on a number of councils, committees and advisory boards set up by the Japanese government and international organizations such as the Asian Population Association, the IUSSP and the WHO. He is currently an associate member of the Science Council of Japan.

Philippines Conference Room

Naohiro Ogawa Professor of Population Economics Speaker the Nihon University
Seminars
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The Sino-Japanese War has inspired numerous specialized studies—some analyzing diplomatic relations, some addressing specific incidents, and still others documenting the rise of Communism in China. The war itself, however, has usually been presented from the perspective of the West.

Departing from this tradition, the Battle for China brings together Chinese, Japanese, and Western scholars of the first rank to provide a comprehensive and multifaceted overview of the military operations that shaped much of what happened in political, economic, and cultural realms. Given the volatility of the events covered and their disputed histories, the volume's diverse contributors have taken pains to sustain a scholarly, dispassionate tone throughout their analyses of the course and the nature of military operations, ranging from the Marco Polo Bridge Incident of 1937 to the final campaigns of 1945. They present Western involvement in the war, but in Sino-Japanese contexts, and establish the war's place in World War II and world history in general.

Reviews

"[The Battle for China] is by far the best academic treatment of the military history of the [Sino-Japanese] war in English . . . A chronology, fourteen maps, and a select bibliography in three languages make this an indispensable work for historians of modern China . . . In scope, it is the most comprehensive work on the military history of the war in English. It makes available a diverse body of scholarship, much of which has not been translated. It should stimulate additional research into one of the most significant events in the history of modern China."

-Parks M. Cole, Chinese Historical Review

"The Battle for China, an excellent collection of more than a dozen essays by nearly a score of American, British, Chinese, and Japanese scholars, is the first full English-language account of the Sino-Japanese War. Its unique description and analysis of military operations should please both the general reader and the specialist."

-Colonel Stanley L. Falk, ARMY Magazine

"A model of scholarship and tone, the Battle for China is a uniquely comprehensive overview of the military operations that shaped events in both China and Japan from 1937–1945. Each of the chapters has something to teach general readers and specialists about the semi-modern war that defined modern Asia."

—Dennis Showalter, Colorado College

"The Battle for China is a rare treasure that will likely renew interest in this underdeveloped field. For those interested in the Pacific war or greater insight into modern Chinese history, I highly recommend it."

-Major Robert S. Burrell, United States Marine Corps, Naval History Magazine

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Stanford University Press
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Mark Peattie
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Populous, economically dynamic, and rapidly urbanizing, the Asia Pacific both reflects and strongly shapes trends in global public health. A comparative assessment of chronic disease prevalence, risk factors, and policy responses in nine Pacific Rim cities shows that chronic diseases are rapidly becoming the leading cause of morbidity and mortality even in the lower income cities of the Pacific Rim. Policy responses are heterogeneous, with few sufficiently funded or adequately informed by evidence. Much could be learned from comparative research and rigorous evaluation of prevention and control initiatives in this region.

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper #21
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Earlier in 2010, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center scholars Donald K. Emmerson and Daniel C. Sneider were selected as research associates for the prestigious National Asia Research Program (NARP), a policy-oriented research and conference program run jointly by the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Emmerson, director of the Southeast Asia Forum, and Sneider, associate director for research at Shorenstein APARC, presented at a NARP symposium held on October 14, 2010 in honor of Professor Robert Scalapino of the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. The two joined other prominent Asia scholars from across the United States. Emmerson took part in the session on regionalism in Asia with the presentation "An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and its Reasons." Sneider's presentation, "Japan's New Asianism: Threat or Opportunity?," was featured during the session on governance in Asia.
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Northeast Asian countries share a tumultuous history from the last century. But South Korea stands alone in that it has launched a comprehensive national investigation to take a more balanced look at its tortuous modern history and finally give voice to the many thousands of people who perished in state-sponsored political killings but whose stories have long been silenced.

In the past several years, the South Korean government's Truth and Reconciliation Commission has led an effort to dig into this grim hidden history. It has confirmed dozens of mass political killings during the Korean War—summary executions of leftists and supposed sympathizers, including women and children, who were shot and dumped into makeshift trenches, mine shafts or the sea. Grave by mass grave, investigators and victims' families have unearthed the skeletons and buried truths. No longer shackled by the repression of free speech, victims of the Communist witch-hunts by the post-war military governments in Seoul also began speaking out. The Commission investigated their cases and concluded that state interrogators used torture to extract false confessions from the victims. Its findings led courts to reopen the cases, reverse the old convictions and clear the victims' names, sometimes posthumously. But the Commission's work has also reawakened the painful memories and stoked political controversy in South Korea. It exposed the deep-running ideological divide, reminding South Koreans of the long shadow the Korean War still casts over their society.

Mr. Sang-Hun Choe, whose Pulitzer-winning journalism identified and helped spur the desire of South Koreans to revisit their recent history, has written extensively about the Commission's investigations.

Philippines Conference Room

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room C333
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-6459 (650) 723-6530
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2010-2011 Fellow in Korean Studies
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A Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, Mr. Choe, has written extensively on United States-Korea relations for the international news media, including the Associated Press and The International Herald Tribune, the international version of The New York Times, where he currently serves as a correspondent. While at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Mr. Choe will analyze the perspective of U.S. experts focusing on issues concerning South Korea's government, media, and society.

Sang-Hun Choe 2010-2011 Fellow in Korean Studies, APARC Speaker
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