Using a dynamic microsimulation model, a research team, including APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, shows that there are differentially positive health gains of smoking reduction among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

Tobacco use is responsible for the death of approximately eight million people worldwide, estimates the World Health Organization, and countries are increasingly making tobacco control a priority. Indeed the relationship between smoking and the burden of chronic diseases such as cancer, lung disease, and heart disease, and, in turn, premature mortality, is well documented. Yet little is known about the health effects of smoking interventions among subgroups of smokers.

Do interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases? And how do these effects vary across populations? In today’s rapidly aging world, it is crucial to understand the potential health gains resulting from interventions to reduce smoking, a leading preventable risk factor for healthy aging.

That’s why a research team, including APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston as well as Stanford Health Policy faculty member Jay Bhattacharya, set out to examine the health effects of smoking reduction. To do so, the team simulated an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

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The team’s findings, discussed in a new paper published by the journal Health Economics, show that smoking reduction can achieve significant improvements in lifetime health as measured by survival while also reducing the prevalence of major chronic diseases, though the effects are heterogeneous. Whereas interventions in both subgroups and in all three countries led to an increased life expectancy and decreased prevalence of chronic diseases, the life-extension benefits were greatest – 2.5 to 3.7 years – for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers, compared with gains of 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers.

The team developed a dynamic microsimulation model to estimate the health gains of reducing smoking among heavy smokers and light smokers. Microsimulation models are powerful tools for assessing the value of health promotion: they model individual health trajectories while accounting for competing risks, thus providing valuable information about the impact of interventions and how they may interact with the changing demographics and socioeconomic profile of a population to determine future health. The team’s study applied microsimulation models tailored to the demographic and epidemiological context in the three countries, then compared the gains in survival and reduction in chronic disease prevalence from a given reduction in smoking and how these impacts vary depending on initial smoking intensity.

The team’s findings indicate that there are differentially positive health effects from smoking reduction. The life‐year gain among heavy smokers quitting well exceeds that of light smokers quitting in each country, but the magnitudes differ substantially: 11.2 times for South Korea, 6.8 times for Singapore, and 1.7 times for the United States. The lower life expectancy among Americans is related to the greater extent in which they suffer from risk factors, such as obesity, relative to the Asian counterparts in the study.

The findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries. They are particularly important for aging societies that are concerned about the sustainability of their health insurance systems in the face of increasing burden of chronic disease.

Tune in to SupChina Sinica Podcast with Matthew Kohrman about his book Poisonous Pandas: Chinese Cigarette Manufacturing in Critical Historical Perspectives.

Listen on the SupChina's website.

For Matthew Kohrman and his students, the war against tobacco needs a new communications strategy.

After all, he noted, three times as many cigarettes are currently manufactured and sold worldwide than were in the 1960s. And the global cigarette industry is the greatest cause of preventable death on the planet today.

That’s why the Stanford associate professor of anthropology decided to teach an introductory seminar this spring, Anthro 182N, titled Smoke and Mirrors in Global Health. Kohrman led his 10 students on a journey into the “strange optics” that the global tobacco industry uses – and what to do about them.

As noted in the syllabus, “entrenched challenges” to global health require society to develop “new methods” to communicate the real truth about tobacco.

Just what are those “new methods?” At the culmination of the class, the students presented some variations on that theme. Their end-of-the-quarter projects were web-based efforts profiling various features of global tobacco. They included exposés on how academicians in China assist the industry in that country, humorous parodies and critiques of Philip Morris, and flawed approaches to tobacco control in South Korea.

They tackled big-picture questions, Kohrman said. For example, they asked what exactly constitutes cigarette manufacturing and how new strategies could help slow the spread of tobacco-related diseases worldwide.

Kohrman, the director of Stanford’s Cigarette Citadels project, envisioned his class as a way for students to offer some thought-provoking and original ideas grounded in solid data. After viewing the student projects, he was astounded – and proud.

“My overall impression has been a feeling of awe,” he said. “Mostly freshmen and sophomores, the students who enrolled in this new course quickly synthesized complex intellectual concepts introduced early in the quarter, conceived their own innovative project ideas, collected relevant data, generously worked with each other, designed apt strategies for evocatively visualizing their messages, and chose and implemented strong interactive media tools – most of which were utterly new to me.”

One of those students was Minkee Sohn, a communication major, who created a video, “Fresh Recruits,” to highlight what he believes is the hypocrisy in the language of some cigarette manufacturers’ recruitment efforts.

“While cigarette manufacturers,” Sohn said, “often frame smoking as an act of free choice, that choice is just an illusion. Free choice is denied to people in all stages of cigarette manufacturing and consumption.”

For example, he explained that children in the African country of Malawi are coerced to work with their families in tobacco fields. “It’s deeply disturbing to hear companies associate freedom with high-paying jobs in cigarette manufacturing.”

For biology major Annabel Chen, the most important thing she learned was to analyze information skeptically. “Industries like big tobacco have influences in unexpected places, so you always need to do sleuthing to find out the truth,” she said.

She chose to examine the links between tobacco and academic research in China. “Seeing as China is the biggest tobacco market in the world, this was a problem we needed to address.”

Kohrman appreciates how students like Sohn and Chen were willing to try an experimental course, never taught before, and which for many was outside of their comfort zone. He said the course will be taught again in 2015-16.

“Looking back, it was the perfect-size group for all the work and one-on-one teaching we did,” he said.

The course was a classic collaboration, according to Kohrman, who also credits Claudia Engel, a lecturer in the Anthropology Department who helped with the technology and his own experiences mentoring undergraduate research, all of which proved instrumental to designing Smoke and Mirrors in Global Health.

“It was a great success today,” he said after seeing the student projects on the last day of class. Tom Glynn, a top adviser to the American Cancer Society, was on hand to see the presentations.

Kohrman added, “Students got tremendous feedback, and there was lots of enthusiasm about how this experimental course unfolded.”

Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

China’s State Council has put forth draft legislation that would ban smoking in public spaces, part of the government’s larger advocacy efforts to help curb tobacco use nationwide. Matthew Kohrman, a professor of anthropology at Stanford University, said it’s a step forward but the ban’s long-term success would depend on local enforcement.

Despite popular belief, global cigarette production has tripled worldwide since the 1960s. Leading the surge has been China.

“China has become the world’s cigarette superpower,” said Kohrman, in an interview on National Public Radio’s program, Marketplace.

Moreover, local governments in China have become dependent on tax revenues generated from tobacco sales, thus reinforcing the cigarette’s ubiquity and ease of access.

China has implemented smoking bans in the past, but with varied success. Now rising healthcare costs caused by tobacco-related diseases are creating urgency for new regulations.

“Whether or not these new regulations will be enforced will, in the end, come down to local politics,” he said.

Matthew Kohrman is part of the Asia Health Policy Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, and leads the project, Cigarette Citadels, a peer-sourced mapping project that compiles more than 480 cigarette factories globally.

The full audioclip is available on the Marketplace website.