Nuclear Risk

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Study for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.  

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
Kazuma_Fukai.jpg

Kazuma Fukai is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2011–12. He has worked for Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc.'s Legal Department since 2003. His responsibilities included overseas transactions such as acquisitions of foreign companies, emission trading, and procurement of natural resources. Since 2010, Fukai has been engaged in the review of nuclear power plants and related systems in terms of the technical aspects and nuclear culture in the Nuclear Integrity Reform Department. Fukai graduated from Doshisha University in 2003 with a bachelor of law degree.

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Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
RSD11_058_0026a_001.jpg MA

Katsunori Hirano is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2011–12. He was born in Shizuoka prefecture, "the sunny side of Mount Fuji," and has worked for the Shizuoka Prefectural Government for nearly 20 years. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he served in multiple roles at the Shizuoka Prefectural Government, including environmental policy-making, regional diplomacy, and inbound tourism promotion. During his fellowship at Shorenstein APARC, his research will focus on a paradigm shift harmonized with ecosystems and nature for a nuclear-free sustainable future.

Hirano earned his bachelor's degree in law from Chuo University, Japan, and his master's degree of arts in urban affairs and public policy, with a concentration in energy and environmental policy, from the University of Delaware.

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Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
Yuji_Kamimai.jpg

Yuji Kamimai is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2011-12.  Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he has worked at Sumitomo Corporation, one of the major trading and investment conglomerates in Japan for ten years.  After joining Sumitomo, he has been engaged in management of some of Sumitomo's affiliated companies such as internet streaming channel and CATV operating company in media industries.

He graduated from Waseda University with a degree in Science and Engineering.

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Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
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Corporate Affiliate Visitng Fellow
Masami_Miyashita.jpg MS

Masami Miyashita is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2011-12.  Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he held positions at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan (METI) for about 12 years, where he took charge of policy making.  His latest position at METI was as deputy director for New Business Policy Office.  He graduated from Tohoku University in Engineering.

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Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Sutdy for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

0
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
Kazuma_Fukai.jpg

Kazuma Fukai is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2011–12. He has worked for Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc.'s Legal Department since 2003. His responsibilities included overseas transactions such as acquisitions of foreign companies, emission trading, and procurement of natural resources. Since 2010, Fukai has been engaged in the review of nuclear power plants and related systems in terms of the technical aspects and nuclear culture in the Nuclear Integrity Reform Department. Fukai graduated from Doshisha University in 2003 with a bachelor of law degree.

Date Label
Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
RSD11_058_0026a_001.jpg MA

Katsunori Hirano is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2011–12. He was born in Shizuoka prefecture, "the sunny side of Mount Fuji," and has worked for the Shizuoka Prefectural Government for nearly 20 years. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he served in multiple roles at the Shizuoka Prefectural Government, including environmental policy-making, regional diplomacy, and inbound tourism promotion. During his fellowship at Shorenstein APARC, his research will focus on a paradigm shift harmonized with ecosystems and nature for a nuclear-free sustainable future.

Hirano earned his bachelor's degree in law from Chuo University, Japan, and his master's degree of arts in urban affairs and public policy, with a concentration in energy and environmental policy, from the University of Delaware.

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Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
Yuji_Kamimai.jpg

Yuji Kamimai is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2011-12.  Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he has worked at Sumitomo Corporation, one of the major trading and investment conglomerates in Japan for ten years.  After joining Sumitomo, he has been engaged in management of some of Sumitomo's affiliated companies such as internet streaming channel and CATV operating company in media industries.

He graduated from Waseda University with a degree in Science and Engineering.

Date Label
Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
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Corporate Affiliate Visitng Fellow
Masami_Miyashita.jpg MS

Masami Miyashita is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2011-12.  Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he held positions at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan (METI) for about 12 years, where he took charge of policy making.  His latest position at METI was as deputy director for New Business Policy Office.  He graduated from Tohoku University in Engineering.

Date Label
Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
Seminars
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More than two decades after the cold war ended elsewhere, it continues undiminished on the Korean Peninsula. The division of the Korean nation into competing North and South Korean states and the destructive war that followed gave rise to one of the great, and still unresolved, tragedies of the twentieth century.

Published for the first time in English, Peacemaker is the memoir of Lim Dong-won, former South Korean unification minister and architect of Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine policy toward North Korea. Lim will present a talk at Stanford in conjunction with the book’s U.S. release, highlighting major themes from it and discussing them within the context of recent developments on the peninsula.

As both witness and participant, Peacemaker traces the process of twenty years of diplomatic negotiations with North Korea, from the earliest rounds of inter-Korean talks through the historic inter-Korean summit of June 2000 and beyond. It offers a fascinating inside look into the recent history of North-South Korea relations and provides important lessons for policymakers and citizens who seek to understand and resolve the tragic—and increasingly dangerous—situation on the Korean Peninsula.

About the Speaker

Following a thirty-year career in the South Korean military, Lim Dong-won’s government service began with his tenure as ROK ambassador to Nigeria and then Australia; under the Roh Tae-woo administration, he served as chancellor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security and director of arms control planning. During the Kim Dae-jung administration Lim held numerous key national-level posts, including head of the National Intelligence Service and minister of unification. He currently is chairman of the Korea Peace Forum and the Hankyoreh Foundation for Reunification and Culture.

This event is made possible by the generous support from the Koret Foundation.

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Dong-won Lim former Minister of Unification, South Korea Speaker
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North Korea’s agreement to curb its nuclear and weapons programs is welcome diplomatic news. But it stops far short of addressing the world’s concerns about the isolated and unstable dictatorship.

Stanford experts David Straub and Siegfried S. Hecker discuss Pyongyang’s deal with Washington that will allow nuclear inspectors into North Korea and deliver much-needed nutritional assistance to the impoverished country.

Straub is the associate director of the Korean Studies Program at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He is a former State Department senior foreign service officer who worked for more than 12 years on Korean affairs. He travelled to North Korea in 2009 with former President Bill Clinton as part of a delegation to secure the release of two journalists from Current TV.

Hecker is co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation and a senior fellow at FSI. Hecker has visited North Korea four times since 2004. During his last trip in 2010, he was shown a new light-water reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear center and a uranium enrichment facility.

What are some of the key factors that led North Korea to agree to this deal?

Straub: This year marks the 100th anniversary of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung’s birth, which the entire country will be celebrating April 15. The government has also said that this is the target year for North Korea to become a “strong and prosperous country.” Kim Jong Un is a brand-new leader, and presumably he and his advisors want to show that he is capable of feeding his people and at least managing the relationship with the United States.

How do you assess the agreement? Where does the moratorium put relations between the U.S. and North Korea?

Hecker: The moratorium demonstrates that North Korea is once again interested in diplomacy with the United States. The fact that they are willing to halt the nuclear operations at Yongbyon, especially the uranium enrichment activities, is a big step in the right direction. I believe the U.S. now wants to achieve a permanent halt to all nuclear weapons activities in North Korea, then roll them back, and eventually achieve complete, verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Straub: There is no perfect deal when it comes to North Korea, but overall I think it is worth giving this one a chance. It will probably slow down the pace of nuclear and missile development in North Korea. In addition, it will give us time to explore whether there is any prospect that the new leadership in North Korea may be willing to take a different, more positive approach toward the United States and South Korea than its predecessors.  If history is a guide, the likeliest outcome is that after a period of several months to a few years the six-party talks will again break down, after which North Korea will create a new crisis.

How hopeful are you that this will lead to the capping of North Korea's nuclear capabilities and perhaps even its ultimate denuclearization?

Hecker: My advice to our government since November 2010, when I was shown the Yongbyon centrifuge facility, was to take immediate action so that the nuclear situation does not get worse. I advocated three no’s: no more bombs, no better bombs and no exports. The current agreement will limit the number of bombs because the Yongbyon nuclear facilities will observe a moratorium. We are still not certain of what they can produce at an undisclosed site, but I believe it is limited. The nuclear testing and missile launch moratorium will constrain the sophistication of their nuclear weapons. Denuclearization is important, but it remains a more distant goal.

Why does the United States call this “important, but limited progress”?

Straub: It is significant, in part, because since North Korea threw out international nuclear inspectors in 2009 there has been no outside monitoring of what is going on at the Yongbyon facility. But most of the things North Korea has agreed to could be reversed at will. Apart from the nuclear tests, the suspension of North Korean nuclear activities applies only to Yongbyon. Dr. Hecker and other experts have concluded there is no way North Korea could have constructed its uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon so soon after the departure of international inspectors if had not already had another facility elsewhere. The agreement also does not address a number of non-nuclear issues, such as North Korea’s military attacks on South Korea in 2010. For there eventually to be lasting progress on the Korean Peninsula—including a resolution of the nuclear issue—there will have to be great improvement in relations between North and South Korea.

Based on what your 2010 visit to the Yongbyon nuclear facility, how much progress could they have made in terms of uranium enrichment?

Hecker: They told me they just brought up the centrifuge facility a week before we arrived in November 2010. They may have perfected the operations and produced some low enriched uranium feed material for the light-water reactor they are constructing (which is still at least a couple of years away from completion). It is also possible that they are still struggling to make the centrifuge facility work smoothly. It is very important to have the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors get into the facility to see what progress has been made and to get a measure of how sophisticated their operations are. The North, in my opinion, still has only four to eight primitive plutonium bombs. I don’t believe they have the confidence to put a warhead small enough to fit on one of their missiles. We have little information on whether they have made highly enriched uranium or have tried to build a bomb fueled with highly enriched uranium.

What does this agreement say, if anything, about the new North Korean leadership?

Hecker: From what I know, this was pretty much the deal worked out the week before Kim Jong Il’s death. I think it’s a good sign; Kim Jong Un appears to be in control as indicated by the fact that he is able to offer up a similar deal even with his father gone.

Straub: This deal suggests that there is a great deal of continuity in North Korea’s leadership. The substance of this agreement is actually quite consistent with North Korean policies and priorities over the last 20 years. While there is no evidence to suggest that Kim Jong Un will adopt major new policies, there is always at least the possibility he might eventually.

The deal includes the provision of 240,000 metric tons of “nutritional assistance” to North Korea. What does the country’s food situation look like right now?

Straub: There is no doubt that many ordinary North Koreans are going hungry. The United States has termed this “nutritional assistance” to distinguish it from “food aid,” because officials are concerned that the provisions of bulk grain – especially rice – might be siphoned off by the North Korean elite. The U.S. government had said earlier that nutritional assistance would not involve bulk grain, and that it would be targeted toward especially vulnerable groups, such as lactating mothers, children, and the elderly.

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While Chernobyl, and now Fukushima, are household words, far fewer people have heard of Maiak in the southern Urals and Hanford in eastern Washington State where Soviet and American engineers built plutonium plants to fuel the Cold War nuclear arsenal. Within nuclear "buffer zones," plant managers, who were pushed to produce as much plutonium as quickly as possible, polluted freely, liberally and disastrously. During the plutonium disasters that ensued, each plant issued over 200 million curies of radioactive isotopes into the surrounding environment, at least twice the amount released at Chernobyl. Under cover of nuclear security and powered by generous corporate welfare, plant managers employed influential public relations campaigns, restricted medical research, deployed temporary, migrant workers as ‘"jumpers" for the dirtiest work, and generally denied the existence and hazards of radioactive contamination. This was the house plutonium built. Kate Brown argues these histories are important because they supplied models, staff, blueprints and subsequent ready-made disasters for Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Kate Brown is an associate professor of history at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is the author of a Biography of No Place: From Ethnic Borderland to Soviet Heartland (Harvard 2004), which won the American Historical Association’s George Louis Beer Prize for the Best Book in International European History. Brown is a 2009 Guggenheim Fellow and is working on a book called Plutopolia, a tandem history of the world’s first plutonium cities, to be published by Oxford University Press in 2012.

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Special Japan Studies Program and CEAS Series: Winter-Spring 2011-12

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Japan's March 11 Disasters One Year Later

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan in March 2011 had both immediate catastrophic consequences and long term repercussions. Fundamental areas of Japan’s environment, economy, society, and collective national psyche were deeply affected, giving rise to a broad range of urgent issues. These include economic debates about how to meet the country’s energy demands with nuclear power plants offline, and what path to take for the country’s energy future; political crises, including criticism of the government’s disaster response; the psychological challenges of coping with trauma and grief; a daunting environmental clean-up; and social developments, including a new wave of civil society activism. This series brings together scholars and activists from a wide range of specialties to take stock of how the Japanese have been affected by the disasters, and to assess the efforts of residents, volunteers, and policy makers to recover and move forward.

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Kate Brown Associate Professor of History Speaker University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
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The triple disasters in Japan in March 2011 have created overwhelming trauma in the stricken areas for people of all ages. The mental health needs are immense, both immediate and long term, and ripple out into Japanese society. Members of the Nichibei Care Network, a group of mental health professionals in the Bay Area who organized to assist relief activities, will offer their reflections on the trauma suffered. They will also report on the heroic efforts that are taking place daily as people rebuild lives through compassion and caring.

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Special Japan Studies Program and CEAS Series: Winter-Spring 2011-12

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Japan's March 11 Disasters One Year Later

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan in March 2011 had both immediate catastrophic consequences and long term repercussions. Fundamental areas of Japan’s environment, economy, society, and collective national psyche were deeply affected, giving rise to a broad range of urgent issues. These include economic debates about how to meet the country’s energy demands with nuclear power plants offline, and what path to take for the country’s energy future; political crises, including criticism of the government’s disaster response; the psychological challenges of coping with trauma and grief; a daunting environmental clean-up; and social developments, including a new wave of civil society activism. This series brings together scholars and activists from a wide range of specialties to take stock of how the Japanese have been affected by the disasters, and to assess the efforts of residents, volunteers, and policy makers to recover and move forward.

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William Masuda Reverend Speaker Palo Alto Buddhist Temple
Stephen Murphy-Shigematsu Speaker Stanford School of Medicine
George Kitahara Kich, PhD Psychologist and Litigation Consultant and Adjunct Faculty Speaker California Institute of Integral Studies
Mio Yamashita Art Therapist/Marriage and Family Therapist Speaker
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Since the triple tragedy of March 11, 2011, we have seen a number of changes in what we sometimes refer to as "civil society" in Japan. In particular, we have seen the emergence of new forms of social capital and social strategies generated through the disaster response, including: real time flows of information over digital networks; the mobilization of various non-governmental actors and agencies in the immediate relief effort; emergence of the "volunteer" as a new cultural citizen; different patterns of contact, cooperation, and competition among previously unrelated groups and individuals in the rebuilding effort; and dispersed political opposition movements that have generated the largest protests since the 1970's AMPO demonstrations. Based on David H. Slater's volunteer relief work and disaster-focused ethnographic research, this talk will begin to document the range, depth, and limitations of these changes in terms of their disaster relief efficacy, but mostly on their possible longer-term effect on the shifting shape of civil society in post 3/11 Japan.

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Special Japan Studies Program and CEAS Series: Winter-Spring 2011-12

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Japan's March 11 Disasters One Year Later

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan in March 2011 had both immediate catastrophic consequences and long term repercussions. Fundamental areas of Japan’s environment, economy, society, and collective national psyche were deeply affected, giving rise to a broad range of urgent issues. These include economic debates about how to meet the country’s energy demands with nuclear power plants offline, and what path to take for the country’s energy future; political crises, including criticism of the government’s disaster response; the psychological challenges of coping with trauma and grief; a daunting environmental clean-up; and social developments, including a new wave of civil society activism. This series brings together scholars and activists from a wide range of specialties to take stock of how the Japanese have been affected by the disasters, and to assess the efforts of residents, volunteers, and policy makers to recover and move forward.

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David H. Slater Associate Professor of Anthropology and Japanese Studies Speaker Sophia University, Japan
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This SEMINAR has been CANCELLED.

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Special Japan Studies Program and CEAS Series: Winter-Spring 2011-12

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Japan's March 11 Disasters One Year Later

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster that hit Japan in March 2011 had both immediate catastrophic consequences and long term repercussions. Fundamental areas of Japan’s environment, economy, society, and collective national psyche were deeply affected, giving rise to a broad range of urgent issues. These include economic debates about how to meet the country’s energy demands with nuclear power plants offline, and what path to take for the country’s energy future; political crises, including criticism of the government’s disaster response; the psychological challenges of coping with trauma and grief; a daunting environmental clean-up; and social developments, including a new wave of civil society activism. This series brings together scholars and activists from a wide range of specialties to take stock of how the Japanese have been affected by the disasters, and to assess the efforts of residents, volunteers, and policy makers to recover and move forward.

Philippines Conference Room

Kiyoyuki Seguchi Research Director Speaker the Canon Institute for Global Studies; formerly head of the Bank of Japan’s Beijing Office
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As the world reacts to the death of Kim Jong Il, Stanford’s Gi-Wook Shin talks about the transition of power in North Korea. He discusses what’s in store for relations between Pyongyang and Washington, and what to expect of what is perhaps Kim’s most troubling legacy: his nuclear weapons program.

Shin is a senior fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and director of FSI's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Korean Studies Program. The sociology professor is also the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies.

Kim Jong Il’s son, Jong Un, is set to take over North Korea’s leadership. What do we know about him, and what can we expect from his leadership?

Unlike his father, who had been groomed as a successor for many years, Kim Jong Un was designated as a successor only recently. As a result, it is questionable whether he is ready to take over the failing regime. Kim Jong Il’s death was not entirely unexpected, but still came sooner than many experts had thought.

Jong Un is only 28 years old without much experience in politics and governance and has not yet been able to consolidate his power. Although his status as a new leader is not likely to be challenged, it won’t be easy at all to establish himself as a strong leader like his father, let alone like his grandfather, Kim Il Song. 

In the years to come, his in-laws—such as Jang Seong Taek—will play an important role behind Kim. The military will also be a key player in the post-Kim Jong Il era.

You were in South Korea when Kim Jong Il died. What was the mood and reaction to the news?

People were taken by surprise but there was no panic. The government is handling the situation well, while many citizens wonder what will happen to North Korea with the passing of Kim Jong Il.

How can the United States deal with this transition in power? Will there be any change in relations between Washington and Pyongyang?

Representatives of North Korea and the U.S. recently met in Beijing to discuss food aid and nuclear issues. There was some optimism with the prospect to improve the bilateral relations. However, any direct talks between the two countries to discuss major issues will be on hold for a while as the northern regime mourns the loss of its leader and focuses on internal stability. The U.S. should pay keen attention to the transitional process and needs to support a smooth transition in power. That should entail close collaboration with neighboring countries, especially South Korea and China. And it should include providing food aid that the U.S. has been considering.

How does Kim Jong Il's death fit in with other key political transitions happening throughout the world in the coming year?

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. Besides this transition in power in North Korea, there will also be power transitions in China and Russia next year. And there will also be presidential elections in the U.S., South Korea, and Taiwan in 2012. Japan may have a new prime minister too, adding more uncertainty to the situation. 

On the other hand, uncertainty does not necessarily mean a crisis—it is unlikely that the North will provoke tensions on the peninsula. The coming year is a very important one for North Korea as it celebrates itself as a “mighty, prosperous nation.” But it faces many challenges.

I don’t expect any significant change in inter-Korean relations until perhaps 2013, when South Korea elects a new administration and North Korea is stabilized with a new political leadership. 

What does Kim Jong Il’s death mean for North Korea’s nuclear program?

North Korea has nuclear weapons and an enriched uranium program that could produce nuclear bombs. Very few expect the North to give up its nuclear bombs. Added uncertainty over the transition of power and heightened concern about regime survival will only increase the value that North Korea sees in possessing nuclear weapons. 

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People read an extra edition of a newspaper reporting the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Seoul.
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Two Stanford graduates with close ties to FSI’s centers have been named 2012 Rhodes Scholars. A third was selected as a Mitchell Scholar.

Anand Habib was a graduate of the 2011 CISAC honors program in international security studies and a 2010 Dachs undergraduate intern. Habib and Katherine Niehaus – who is now a research assistant for a CHP/PCOR project evaluating whether HIV medication increases the risk of cardiovascular disease – will study at the University of Oxford in England under the Rhodes program. 

Philippe de Koning, who will study in Ireland as a Mitchell fellow, wrote a manuscript about Japan’s defense and financial crisis with Shorenstein APARC faculty member Phillip Lipscy. Lipscy, a political scientist, was de Koning’s advisor through his undergraduate career and also advised him on his senior thesis. De Koning was also a 2010 CISAC honors student.

More about the scholars:

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Anand R. Habib, 22, of Houston, Texas, is a 2011 graduate of Stanford, where he earned a bachelor's degree in biology, with honors in international security studies. He plans to pursue a master's degree in public policy and in medical anthropology at Oxford.

Habib is working on community health programs at St. Joseph's Clinic in Thomassique, Haiti, under a one-year global health fellowship awarded by Medical Missionaries. The nonprofit organization is a volunteer group of more than 200 doctors, nurses, dentists, and others who work to improve the health of the poor in the United States and throughout the world.

In 2011, he won a Deans' Award for Academic Accomplishment, which honors extraordinary undergraduate students for "exceptional, tangible" intellectual achievements. One of the professors who nominated him for the award described him as a "superb critical thinker" whose work is characterized by "creative genius" and "mature insights," adding that he "exemplifies exactly the kind of deeply informed, pragmatic and caring leadership that the world needs and Stanford enables."

As a Stanford student, Habib worked on behalf of politically and medically disenfranchised people in India, Mexico and Guatemala. His field research internship in Guatemala’s indigenous region during summer 2010 was carried out under the supervision of Paul Wise, professor of pediatrics and FSI senior fellow, as part of FSI’s Dachs mentored undergraduate research program.  On campus, he turned the Stanford tradition of the annual Dance Marathon into a vehicle dedicated to addressing the HIV/AIDS pandemic by engaging not only Stanford students but also local communities and corporations, raising more than $100,000. His exceptional work was recognized by his participation in the Clinton Global Initiative University Conference in April, 2011.

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Katherine "Kate" Niehaus, 23, of Columbia, S.C., earned a bachelor's degree in biomechanical engineering in 2010 and a master's degree in bioengineering in 2011 – both at  Stanford. Her class and research work focused on biomechanics and her interests lie in its applications to high technology entrepreneurship.

She plans to pursue a doctorate of philosophy in systems approaches to biomedical science at Oxford.

At Stanford, Niehaus captained Stanford's varsity track and cross country teams, won the Pac-10 5,000 meters, and won Academic-All American status. She also served as a mentor and tutor for students in low-income families.

Working with faculty in the Center for Health Policy, Kate led a project to evaluate how well newer HIV antiretroviral drugs work compared with older drugs.  Her work was among the first to evaluate comprehensively all of the trials of new drugs in treatment of experienced patients, and showed that these drugs have substantial benefits.

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Philippe de Koning, 22, of Paris, France, earned a bachelor's degree in international relations at Stanford in 2010. He plans to pursue a master's degree in international security and conflict resolution at Dublin City University.

He is a Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Nuclear Threat Initiative in Washington, D.C. The nongovernmental organization works to prevent nuclear, chemical, and biological threats from materializing. De Koning is researching nuclear materials security and the U.S.-China dialogue on nuclear issues.

De Koning, who earlier was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship, spent the 2010-2011 academic year at Hiroshima University in Japan. He examined various components of Japanese security policy, with emphasis on current evolution of Japanese Self-Defense Forces, policies on nuclear issues and approaches toward peacekeeping.

In 2009, he was a member of the Stanford delegation to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.

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