Economic Affairs

Professor Hidehiko Ichimura of the University of Tokyo will share recent results from his research on the health of older adults and the retirement process in Japan. His research draws upon a unique data source, the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR). This rich dataset provides information on how middle-aged and elderly Japanese live in terms of economic, social, and health outcomes, and how these interact with their family status. The JSTAR project aims to provide longitudinal data enabling detailed policy-relevant comparisons to other industrialized countries (e.g. the Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, the US Health and Retirement Study, the English Longitudinal Study on Aging, and similar surveys now launched in Korea, China, and India).

Professor Ichimura received his BA in economics from Osaka University in 1981 and his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1988. He has taught at the University of Minnesota, the University of Pittsburgh, and University College London. He is now Professor in the Graduate School of Public Policy and Graduate School of Economics at the University of Tokyo. 

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Hidehiko Ichimura Professor in the Graduate School of Public Policy and Graduate School of Economics Speaker University of Tokyo
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Asian universities are rising in world university rankings, with schools in emerging Asian countries such as China, Taiwan, and South Korea recently making strong gains. Six universities in South Korea alone placed among the top 400 in the world in the 2012 Times Higher Education rankings. Competition within Asia is also intensifying. 

The shift of relative economic power from the West to the East suggests that Asian universities will continue their ascendancy, but progress brings with it growing pains. In his talk, Dr. Jeong, president of one of Korea’s premier universities, will discuss the pressures that Korean universities face and their efforts to reform and adjust to new times and new challenges.

Dr. Jeong Kap-Young is president and a professor of economics at Yonsei University. He holds a B.A. from Yonsei University, an M.A. from the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.A. and a Ph.D. from Cornell University, all in economics. His research interests are in industrial organization and public policy, applied microeconomic theory, and East Asian economies. He has authored numerous works, and served as adviser to the Korean government.

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Jeong Kap-Young President, Yonsei University, Korea Speaker
Conferences
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China and some other Asian countries have experienced a large surplus of men of marriageable age. The existing literature studies the impact of sex imbalance using aggregate sex ratios, such as at the county, city, or province level. However, these studies may miss important impacts on health and behavior because the relevance of surplus sons to family decisions mainly stems from pressure conveyed through social interactions with the local reference group.

This paper draws from unique social network data, collected from households' long-term spontaneous gift exchange records (li dan), combined with household panel data from 18 Chinese villages to explore the prevalence of men's localized pressure to get married. The surveyed villages are home to Chinese ethnic minorities, which largely circumvents endogenous fertility decisions on the first-born child due to the implementation of One Child Policy and its associated relaxations afterwards. To identify the effect of pressure to find wives for their sons on parental risky behavior, we focus on comparing families with a first-born boy versus a first-born girl and distinguish the network spillover effect from the direct effect.

The spatial econometric decompositions suggest that the pressure mainly originates from a few friends with unmarried sons and unbalanced sex ratios in the friendship networks, though own village sex ratio and having an unmarried son also affects parental risk-taking behavior. The results are consistent across specifications allowing for long-run and short-run effects. We also find similar patterns for parental working hours, their likelihood to engage in entrepreneurial activities and decision to migrate. In contrast, parents with a daughter do not demonstrate this pattern. Since the sex ratio imbalance in China will probably worsen in the next decade, disentangling the real sources of marriage market pressure may help design policies to improve parental well-being.

Dr. Xi Chen's main research interests involve health economics and development economics in the developing contexts. He recently completed his PhD in applied economics at Cornell. His research seeks to better understand how social interactions affect health behavior and outcomes, how socioeconomic status drives social competition. Most of his current work draws on primary data from China and secondary data from India and Indonesia.

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Xi Chen Assistant Professor Speaker Department of Health Policy and Management Yale School of Public Health
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Much has been made of the Asian success story. The region is a key driver of the global economy, and the lives of millions of its people have been transformed in ways unimaginable decades ago.

It is ironic, however, that the factors that have driven Asia's rapid growth—technology, globalization, and market-oriented reforms—are the same factors driving inequality. Asia remains home to the world's largest concentration of poor. Millions of people do not have access even to basic services, and weak governance is a serious concern. 

Rising inequality is not the only challenge facing Asian countries. There is also the looming threat of environmental degradation. For decades the region has taken the approach of “grow now, clean up later,” wreaking havoc on the environment and putting lives and livelihoods at serious risk.

If Asia is to achieve sustainable growth, it must pursue both inclusive growth and green growth. These should not be separate processes, but rather simultaneous processes that focus on the quality of growth rather than quantity of growth.

Rajat M. Nag, managing director general of the Asian Development Bank, will speak on why and how Asia should boldly confront the twin challenges of inclusive and green growth so that its people, and the rest of the world, will continue to benefit from its successful growth story.  

About the Speaker

Rajat M. Nag is the managing director general of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). With broad experience across Asia, Mr. Nag plays a critical role in providing strategic and operational direction to ADB. He also oversees the risk management operations of ADB.

Mr. Nag’s work has given him wide-ranging insight into several issues and challenges relevant to Asia, including infrastructure financing, public-private partnerships, and regional economic integration. His particular interest is in working to enhance regional cooperation and integration in Asia, and to bridge the gap between the region’s thriving economies and the millions of poverty-stricken people being left behind. Read more.

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Rajat M. Nag Managing Director General Speaker Asian Development Bank
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Hong Sun Ko, "Competition in Korea's Smartphone Market"

Like a fierce sports match, competition between the best enterprises drives the force to provide better products and service to customers.  Additionally, other macro-environmental factors such as politics, economics, social and cultural issues play an equally important role.  However, the core of competition never changes - the key point is to get to the consumer’s mind first with “usability” and “newness” and continue to do so.  In this presentation, Ko will discuss the competition in the smartphone market in Korea based on his personal experience and perspective.

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Hong Sun Ko Samsung Electronics Speaker
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This research aims to better understand the impact of the Matlab health interventions by using panel data to control for unobservables and understand the dynamics and long-term effects of these programs. Heterogeneity in the fertility response to the family planning program is analyzed, using sequential fertility to isolate the family planning program from other interventions and examine heterogeneity based on time-varying characteristics. The link between childhood measles vaccination and school enrollment is examined using instrumental variables, and is motivated by the hypothesis that by avoiding the long-term health effects of a disease, vaccinated children are higher-achieving. Both analyses generate interesting findings that are not captured using the traditional methodologies and outcomes of program evaluation.

Julia Driessen, PhD, is an assistant professor of health policy and management in the Graduate School of Public Health at the University of Pittsburgh. She has a secondary appointment in the Department of Economics. In 2011 Dr. Driessen received her PhD in Economics from Johns Hopkins University. Her research interests include program evaluation and the links between health interventions and socioeconomic status, with an emphasis on heterogeneity of program effects as well as long-term outcomes. Recent research has analyzed the schooling effects of childhood measles vaccination and variation in the fertility response to a family planning program in Bangladesh. Her primary new interest since arriving at Pitt is the clinical and financial effects of electronic medical records in developing countries.

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Julia R. Driessen Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management in the Graduate School of Public Health Speaker the University of Pittsburgh
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Recent academic papers have shown that the Japanese sovereign debt situation is not sustainable. The puzzle is that the bond rate has remained low and stable. Some suggest that the low yield can be explained by domestic residents’ willingness to hold Japanese government bonds (JGBs) despite its low return, and that as long as domestic residents remain home-biased, the JGBs are sustainable. About 95% of JGBs are currently owned by domestic residents. This paper argues that even with such dominance of domestic investors, if the amount of government debt breaches the ceiling imposed by the domestic private sector financial assets, the JGB rates can rapidly rise and the Japanese government can face difficulty rolling over the existing debt. A simulation is conducted on future paths of household saving and fiscal situations to show that the ceiling would be breached in the next 10 years or so without a drastic fiscal consolidation. This paper also shows that the government debt can be kept under the ceiling with sufficiently large tax increases. The JGB yields can rise even before the ceiling is hit, if the expectation of such drastic fiscal consolidation disappears. This paper points out several possible triggers for such a change in expectation. However, downgrading of JGBs by credit rating agencies is not likely to be a trigger, since past downgrades have not produced any change in the JGB yield. If and when the JGB rates rapidly rise, the Japanese financial institutions that hold a large amount of JGBs will sustain losses and the economy will suffer from fiscal austerity, financial instability, and inflation.

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The National Bureau of Economic Research
Authors
Takeo Hoshi
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