Few will dispute that the essence of our times can be conveyed by two simple words: " Global" and "Change". Economies, technologies, information, media, culture, and indeed security issues have been vastly internationalized and transformed in the incredibly short period of the half century following World War II . The world is being consumed by the forces of change driven by the engines of technology and geoeconomics. Economic change and technological development, like wars or sports, are usually not beneficial to all. Progress only benefits those groups of nations that are able to take advantage of newer methods of science, just as they damage those that are less prepared technologically, culturally, and politically to respond to change. Only societies free of rigid doctrinal orthodoxy and possessing attributes such as the freedoms to inquire, dispute, and experiment; a belief in the possibilities of improvement; a concern for the practical rather than the abstract; and rationalism that defies mandarin codes, religious dogmas, and traditional folklore, are likely to prosper in the new millennium. In any case, we must look with caution into the future. History teaches us that the only thing we can be certain of is that we will be surprised; our vision may well turn out to be distorted and myopic, our best guesses will often be wrong and we are likely to be disappointed in our expectations. We can only be certain of continuing conflict on a technology-driven planet with concurrent dwindling resources and increasing population.

Since the 1960s, television has been a fixture of the Japanese household, and NHK's TV news has until very recently been the dominant, and most trusted, source of political information for the Japanese citizen. NHK's news style is distinctive among the broadcasting systems of industrialized countries; it emphasizes facts over interpretation and gives unusual priority to coverage of the national bureaucracy. In his talk, Krauss will argue that this approach is not simply a reflection of Japanese culture, but a result of the organization and processes of NHK and their relationship with the state. These factors had profound consequences for the state's postwar re-legitimization, while the commercial networks' recent challenge to NHK has helped engender the wave of cynicism currently faced by the state. Professor Krauss is a leading expert on Japanese Politics, U.S.-Japan relations, and Japan's political economy. He also is the director of the International Career Associates Program (ICAP) at IR/PS. His most recent book, Broadcasting Politics in Japan: NHK and Television News (Cornell University Press, 2000), discusses Japan's mammoth public broadcaster, and its relationship to and consequences for politics. He recently received a prestigious Abe Fellowship to conduct research on Japanese foreign policy decision making in APEC and its impact on U.S.-Japan relations. Krauss is co-editor of Media and Politics in Japan and has co-edited and written contributing articles for Democracy in Japan and Conflict in Japan. He wrote a monograph for the Foreign Policy Association, entitled Japan's Democracy: How Much Change? and has authored many articles in professional journals of political science and Asian studies.

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum completed its first ten years in 1999. It is appropriate to pause and look back at its evolution over this period, and look forward to assess its future role in the multilateral world of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This paper attempts both of these tasks from a New Zealand perspective. The factors and forces behind regionalism, its points of confluence and conflict with multilateralism, and its future role in a globalised international economy are all addressed in this paper. How the forces of regionalism are shaping up in the Asia-Pacific region, and how New Zealand - a small open economy - is linking itself into it are anlysed to put New Zealand's recent economic reforms in an international perspective. To what extent New Zealand and other countries in the Asia-Pacific area can learn and benefit from the experiences of one another is brought into sharper focus in the paper. Professor Srikanta Chatterjee is a professor of international economics at Massey University in New Zealand. A native of India, Professor Chatterjee studied economics at the Universities of Calcutta, India, and Surrey and London, England, receiving his Ph D from the London School of Economics. Besides New Zealand, Professor Chatterjee has been on the full time faculty in universities in India, U.K., Australia, Japan and Fiji. He has also been on the visiting faculty in Australia, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Italy, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, Swaziland and Vietnam. In 1997, Professor Chatterjee was a Japan Foundation Fellow at the Tokyo Keizai University, and, in 1998, he spent a semester at the Kyoto Ritsumeikan University as a New Zealand Asia 2000 Foundation Visiting Professor of Asia-Pacific Studies. Currently a Fulbright Travelling Fellow, Professor Chatterjee is visiting Berkeley, and attending a conference in San Diego before going on give lectures at the University of Colima in Mexico. Professor Chatterjee's teaching and research interests include international economics, international business, the Asia-Pacific economies, inequality and income distribution, and the economics of the household.

Air Chief Marshal S.K. Mehra will be discussing the formulation of the doctrine by the National Security Advisory Board. Since it was made public, the Doctrine has received both domestic and international reactions. Air Chief Marshal Mehra will discuss these reactions as expressed in the media. While in the Service, Air Chief Marshal S.K. Mehra progressed from junior to middle levels in operational fighter units specializing in both air defence and strike roles, and commanded key operational squadrons and major Air Force fighter bases. The senior staff appointments held by him include Director of Air Staff Inspection, Director of Personnel (Officers), Assistant Chief of Air Staff (Operations), and Deputy Chief of the Air Staff. He held the appointment of Air Officer commanding-in-Chief, South Western Air Command with the responsibility of all air operations in the sector, prior to being appointed as the Chief of the Air Staff in 1988. He retired in 1991 on completion of the three-year tenure as the Air Chief. Presently, he is on the Governing Council of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), and a member of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies-both located in New Delhi. He has also been nominated by the Government of India to the National Security Advisory Board.

Recently the "Asia-Europe Vision Group" published its report "Asia-Europe Partnership in the 21st Century," outlining a bright, prosperous and trouble-free future of inter-regional relations. Does this rhetoric match reality or is it just wishful thinking? At least for the time being, official relations between Europe and Asia remain on a historic low. Several EU-ASEAN meetings, for instance, were cancelled. The Asian Financial Crisis, changing foreign policy strategies as well as conflicting norms and values have weakened the so-called 'third link' of the post Cold-War order. Furthermore, in many Asian capitals the Kosovo war has resulted in deep distrust of European intentions in world politics. How serious are the recent turbulences in EU relations with Southeast and Northeast Asian countries? Will they hinder the implementation of far-reaching visions and goals such as the proposed Asia-Europe Free Trade Area? Dr. Joern Dosch is a Visiting Fulbright Scholar at Shorenstein APARC. He is also Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Mainz, Germany. Former affiliations include UCSD, Johns Hopkins University, the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS, Singapore), Singapore, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Jakarta). Dr. Dosch served as a member of the board of directors, German Society of Asian Studies, and participates in various international research projects on Europe-Asia relations and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. He has published two books and ca. 20 articles on ASEAN, European and US policies in Asia, democratization in Southeast Asia and International Relations theory.

Among heads of state, Indonesia's is unique--and uniquely challenged. Aburrahman Wahid ("Gus Dur") is virtually blind and has suffered two strokes. His country, the world's fourth most populous, is bedeviled by political and economic crises. Momentum toward secession in several outlying regions, notably Aceh and Irian Jaya, threatens to unravel the republic. In Maluku province, intercommunal violence has accelerated. Prospects for continued recovery from the devastating recession of 1998 are uncertain. As impatience mounts over the inability of Gus Dur's government to date to solve such problems, fragile stability and nascent democratization are at risk of reversal, especially if elements in the army decide to intervene. Who is the man in the eye of this hurricane? What does his background tell us about his ability to cope with his country's manifold problems? Is he up to the task? Will he be ousted by his rivals? Or, in Indonesia's post-authoritarian political climate, do Gus Dur's weaknesses amount to a kind of strength? Donald K. Emmerson is a senior fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center. His edited book, Indonesia beyond Suharto, has just been published. Other recent writings include pieces in the Journal of Democracy and the National Interest--the former on political change in Southeast Asia, the latter on Western moralpolitik in East Timor. In June and August 1999 he helped to monitor Indonesia's national elections in Maluku and the UN's plebiscite on sovereignty in East Timor, respectively. His talk on Gus Dur will include information obtained during a three-hour interview with the new president in Jakarta in December 1999.