Society

FSI researchers work to understand continuity and change in societies as they confront their problems and opportunities. This includes the implications of migration and human trafficking. What happens to a society when young girls exit the sex trade? How do groups moving between locations impact societies, economies, self-identity and citizenship? What are the ethnic challenges faced by an increasingly diverse European Union? From a policy perspective, scholars also work to investigate the consequences of security-related measures for society and its values.

The Europe Center reflects much of FSI’s agenda of investigating societies, serving as a forum for experts to research the cultures, religions and people of Europe. The Center sponsors several seminars and lectures, as well as visiting scholars.

Societal research also addresses issues of demography and aging, such as the social and economic challenges of providing health care for an aging population. How do older adults make decisions, and what societal tools need to be in place to ensure the resulting decisions are well-informed? FSI regularly brings in international scholars to look at these issues. They discuss how adults care for their older parents in rural China as well as the economic aspects of aging populations in China and India.

For much of the U.S.-ROK alliance's fifty-year history, it was considered one of the most successful political-military relationships forged out of the Cold War era. More recently, however, experts have expressed concerns about the durability of the alliance, given changing views in both Seoul and Washington on the nature of the threat posed by North Korea. The two allies' disparate approaches to DPRK policy became evident in the wake of the 2001 summit between the newly inaugurated President Bush and South Korean President Kim Dae Jung.

Authors
Donald K. Emmerson
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TERNATE, North Maluku, Indonesia: Indonesia's first direct presidential election was held peacefully last Monday. That fact alone spelled success in a troubled country with an authoritarian past. As vote totals mounted at election headquarters in Jakarta, observers could project not only the outcome--they could also look forward with some confidence to a democratic future for the fourth most populous country and largest Muslim society on earth.

Seen from below, however, the world's biggest and most complex democratic experiment amounts to a set of promises still waiting to be fulfilled.

Half an hour by speedboat from Ternate and two more hours by jeep on damaged roads across the remote island of Halmera lie two adjacent villages, Sosol and Tahane. A clash between them on the night of August 18, 1999 had triggered near-anarchy here in the northern Maluku archipelago. Muslims fought Christians, then Muslims fought Muslims. More than a thousand died.

An Indonesian colleague and I went there on election day. We wanted to know whether the balloting would help heal or reopen North Maluku's wounds.

Sosol is a Christian village. In a near-whisper that reflected the sensitivity of the topic, the village secretary blamed the 1999 outbreak squarely on Muslim militants in Tahane. They had attacked Sosol en masse, he said. They had thrown rocks and torched homes while screaming "Allahu Akbar"--"God is great." Christian villages had counterattacked.

Interviewed in his home just down the road, the village chief of all-Muslim Tahane remembered differently: "They acted first," he said. People in Sosol had been drinking alcohol, forbidden to Muslims. From his side of the border he could hear the shouts of drunken Sosolans abusing Tahane; the Sosolans began seizing Tahanean houses, slashing the furniture, he said. He admitted that the first to die was killed by a Tahanean, "but they started it," he insisted. "They had weapons - arrows, bombs. What was I to do? Let them roll over us?"

Ever since the chief and his fellow villagers had arrived in Tahane in the 1970s, evacuees from a feared volcanic eruption on their home island in the south, the Sosolans had hated them and tried to get them to leave. Or so he said.

The roots of this conflict embrace many issues. They include religion, migration, ethnicity, customs, and access to land. But it was an action taken by the central government in far-off Jakarta that lit this volatile mix in 1999--a decree that transferred Sosol and several other largely Christian villages to the jurisdication of a new and mostly Muslim subdistrict, including Tahane. What looked in Jakarta like a purely administrative arrangement appeared to Sosolans to threaten their identity.

It has never been realistic here to expect the national government to understand what goes on in and between particular villages--not in a country this vast, diverse, and underdeveloped.

But democracy raises expectations. What happened on July 5 linked the electorate directly, almost personally, to individual candidates running for president and vice-president of the entire country.

Throughout our election-date tour of polling stations in northern Maluku we came across evidence of disappointment and hope in roughly equal measure.

Every villager we met either was or had been a refugee from the violence of the 1990s, and nearly every one had suffered. Yet when we asked who had supplied them with emergency food and housing materials to survive the crisis and rebuild, our informants rarely mentioned the Indonesian government.

We also found good news. Although Sosol and Tahane voted for opposing slates, old wounds stayed closed. The villagers were not about to let political rivalries between presidential candidates rekindle calamity. There was no violence on voting day, and turnouts were high in all the villages. If democracy requires civility and participation, the people of northern Maluku are ready and willing to do their part.

But will Indonesia's new president, when finally elected in a run-off this September, be willing and able to his or her part? Will campaign promises be kept?

Perhaps the most poignant hint of this country's fragility occurred when I asked the Sosol village secretary, "What is Indonesia?" For the first time in our conversation, he fell silent. Try as he might, he could not answer.

At the risk of wishful thinking, one can hope the election itself was a kind of answer.

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Wednesday, January 14

Welcoming Remarks

2:00 Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC

Security Dimension of the Alliances

2:10-4:00

Chair: Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

The Changes in the US's Strategic Doctrine

Kurt Campbell, Senior Vice President & Director, International Security Program, Center for Security and International Studies

What key elements of change in American strategic doctrine have been introduced by the Bush Administration? What implications do they have for US alliances in Northeast Asia?

The China Dimension

Michael Lampton, Director, China Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University

What implications would improved Sino-US relations have on America's alliances in Asia?

Jing Huang, Associate Professor of Political Science, Utah State University

How have Chinese attitudes and policies toward America's Northeast Asian alliances changed over the past five years or so? What accounts for those changes? What implications have they for the future of these alliances?

Discussant: William Perry, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor, School of Engineering, Stanford University and the 19th Secretary of Defense for the United States

4:30-6:00 The Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia

Admiral Thomas Fargo, Commander, US Pacific Command

Keynote and Public Address

Introduction to be made by William Perry

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, first floor

Thursday, January 15

Changing View of the Regional Security Environment and the Alliances

8:00-10:15

Chair: Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC

The Japanese Government's Views on the Alliance

Kuriyama Takakazu, Ambassador, retired

How have the views of the Japanese government changed in recent years with respect to the regional security environment and the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance? How have they changed with respect to the security responsibilities? Should Japan be prepared to shoulder on these responsibilities on its own outside the contours of the alliance?

The View of the Republic of Korea's Government of the Alliance

Kim Won-soo, Visiting Scholar, Shorenstein APARC & former Secretary to the President of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Office of the President, Republic of Korea

How have South Korean government perception and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the regional security environment and the mission and strategic focus of the US-ROK alliance? How have they changed with respect to the security responsibilities that South Korea is expected to shoulder on its own, outside the contours of the alliance?

The US Government's Views on the US-Japan Alliance

Rust Deming, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, National Defense University & Ambassador, retired

How have American government perceptions and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance?

The US Government's View on the U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance

Victor Cha, D.S. Song Associate Professor of Government and Asian Studies, Georgetown University

How have American government perceptions and policies changed in recent years vis-à-vis the mission and strategic focus of the US-Japan alliance?

Discussant: Christopher LaFleur, Cyrus Vance Fellow in Diplomatic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

The Changing Domestic Politics of the Alliance

10:30-12:15

Chair: Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC

Japanese Domestic Views of the Alliance

Nakanishi Hiroshi, Professor, Graduate School of Law, Kyoto University

Since the mid-1990s, what noteworthy changes have surfaced in domestic support or opposition to the US-Japan alliance? What changes in support or opposition to the bilateral cooperation on security issues in Asia and elsewhere?

The Changes in South Korean Domestic Views of the Alliance

Lee Chung-min, Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University

How have domestic political dynamics and public attitudes toward the US-ROK alliance and bilateral cooperation on security issues changed in recent years? What accounts for those changes? What implications do they have for US alliances in Northeast Asia?

American Domestic Views of the US-Republic of Korea Alliance

Donald Gregg, President, The Korea Society

How have American public attitudes (as reflected in public opinion polls, press reporting, and Congressional actions) evolved toward the US-ROK alliance and bilateral defense cooperation in recent years? What accounts for these changes? What are their implications for the future of the alliance?

Discussant: Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Adjustments in the Operational Arrangement for Defense Cooperation

1:30-3:45

Chair & Discussant: Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow Emeritus, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Japanese Adjustments in US-Japan Defense Cooperation

Yamaguchi Noboru, Major General, Japan Ground Self Defense Force

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What further changes would the Japanese Government like to promote?

US-Japan Defense Cooperation

Ralph Cossa, President, Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What additional changes is the Bush Administration likely to promote?

US-Republic of Korea Defense Cooperation

William Drennan, Deputy Director, United States Institute of Peace

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-Japan defense cooperation? What additional changes is the Bush Administration likely to promote?

US-Republic of Korea Defense Cooperation

Kim Jae chang, General, Joint Korea-US Command, (retired) and Co-Chairman, Council on ROK-US Security Studies

What adjustments have occurred in recent years in the operational arrangements underpinning US-ROK defense cooperation? What further changes would the Republic of Korea like to promote?

Where Do We Go From Here? Conclusions

4:00-5:00

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow & Ambassador, retired

Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow Emeritus, SIIS and Shorenstein APARC

Robert Scalapino, Robson Research Professor of Government, Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley

Oksenberg Conference Room

Conferences
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Many similarities exist between America's alliances with Japan and South Korea. The United States provides a security guarantee to both countries, and maintains a military presence in each. Local ambivalence about these foreign troops has long been a staple of politics in both countries.

The two alliances are strategically connected. The United States would find it difficult to support its commitments to South Korea without access to bases in Japan. Japan would have trouble sustaining political support for US bases if it were America's only ally in the region. Trilateral security consultations among the United States, Japan, and South Korea enhance deterrence and generate diplomatic leverage with respect to North Korea.

The US-Japan and US-ROK alliances have yielded mutual benefits for over fifty years. Yet today, while US-Japan defense cooperation is flourishing, conflicting perceptions in Washington and Seoul of Kim Jong-il's North Korean regime--and how to deal with it--have generated deep concerns about the future of the US-ROK alliance. This has prompted officials on both sides to shift their attention from managing these defense partnerships to redefining their terms.

Armacost and Okimoto's provocative book examines this policy challenge. Substantial progress has been achieved in modernizing the US-Japan alliance. A shared US-ROK analysis of the North Korean challenge, and a common strategy for combating it, is now the urgent priority. Without it, the US-ROK alliance will not regain the relevance and promise that mark America's relationship with Japan. Given the stakes, Washington and Seoul must summon the political will to address current problems promptly and purposefully. Written by some of the most eminent scholars and practitioners in the field, the chapters in this timely volume offer thoughtful suggestions to help policymakers achieve this goal.

(This title is now out of print; four PDFs, arranged by section, may be downloaded at the links below.)

Introduction
Preface (Daniel I. Okimoto)
The Future of America’s Alliances in Northeast Asia (Michael H. Armacost)
America’s Asia Strategy during the Bush Administration (Kurt M. Campbell)  

Japan
The Japan-US Alliance in Evolution (Kuriyama Takakazu)
The Changing American Government Perspectives on the Missions and Strategic Focus of the US-Japan Alliance (Rust M. Deming)
Japanese Adjustments to the Security Alliance with the United States: Evolution of Policy on the Roles of the Self-Defense Force (Yamaguchi Noboru)
US-Japan Defense Cooperation: Can Japan Become the Great Britain of Asia?
Should It? (Ralph A. Cossa)
The Japan-US Alliance and Japanese Domestic Politics: Sources of Change, Prospects for the Future (Hiroshi Nakanishi)

Korea
Shaping Change and Cultivating Ideas in the US-ROK Alliance (Victor D. Cha)
The United States and South Korea: An Alliance Adrift (Donald P. Gregg)
Challenges for the ROK-US Alliance in the Twenty-First Century (Won-soo Kim)
US-ROK Defense Cooperation (William M. Drennan)
Changes in the Combined Operations Arrangement in Korea (Kim Jae-chang)
Domestic Politics and the Changing Contours of the ROK-US Alliance: The End of the Status Quo (Lee Chung-min)

China
US-China Relations and America’s Pacific Alliances in the Post–-9/11 Era (David M. Lampton)
China and America’s Northeast Asian Alliances: Approaches, Politics, and Dilemmas (Jing Huang)
Contributors 

 

 

 

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Michael H. Armacost
Daniel I. Okimoto
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Shorenstein APARC
Authors
Daniel I. Okimoto
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APARC's Daniel I. Okimoto comments on the history of the US-Japan relationship on "The Charlie Rose Show." This recent broadcast commemorated 150 years of this vital and longstanding alliance.

The audio version of this television program may be downloaded via the link below, using Realplayer. Click on the link for March 31, 2004.

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Lunch provided to those who RSVP to Yumi Onoyama at yumio@stanford.edu by Tuesday, May 25.

12:00pm The Challenges and Opportunities to PetroChina in the Stock Market

Ruisheng Yong, PetroChina Company, Ltd.

12:20pm What Are the Conditions for Creating a Second Silicon Valley in Shizuoka Prefecture?

Ikuzo Matsushita, Shizuoka Prefectural Government

12:40pm Lessons of Entrepreneurial Education for Japan's Young Generation

Yoshinori Ueda, Kansai Electric Power Company

1:00pm Non-technology Issues Awaiting the E-paper Content Market--From Marketing & Legal Perspectives

Taizo Shiozaki, Impress Corporation

1:20pm Pension Investment and Fiduciary Duty in the United States

Fumiaki Tonoki, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

1:40pm Renewable Energy and Environmental Policies in the Power Industry

Shinichiro Goko, Electric Power Development Company

2:00pm Application of 'Web Service' to Electronic Media

Atsushi Sato, Asahi Shimbun Company

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Seminars
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A buffet lunch will be available to those who RSVP to Rakhi Patel at rpatel80@stanford.edu by Tuesday, May 5. Only recently have scholars begun to invest a substantial amount of effort in researching the history of the "forgotten" region of P'yóngan Province in Korean historiography. These works, which focus mostly on the period before the Hong Kyóngnae Rebellion of 1812, mainly investigate particular historical experiences of this region that culminated in the cross-class rebellion. These works are extremely valuable for a number of reasons. They represent the first comprehensive historical research on the northwestern region of the Korean peninsula, currently a part of the People's Democratic Republic of Korea (North Korea). Most of these studies start with the notion that there was no yangban aristocracy in P'yóngan Province -- a prevailing perception of late Chosón literati, and one that rationalized social and political discrimination against people from this region. One of the main goals of this study is to challenge this perspective through a close reading of the writings of Paek Kyónghae (1765-1842), a literatus from P'yóngan Province, to illuminate his perceptions and responses to regional discrimination and his cultural identity as a man from a politically and socially condemned region. This discussion offers a microscopic examination of the bilateral relations between the center and the periphery through Paek's life experiences. Particularly because Paek Kyónghae lived as a yangban official through the major social and political disruption posed by the Hong Kyóngnae Rebellion -- to which regional discrimination against the people of P'yóngan Province in terms of political advancement by the central court provided an ideological justification -- his views and personal choices partly explain how the existing regime survived the rebellion.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Sun Joo Kim Assistant Professor of Korean History Department of East Asian Languages and Civilizations, Harvard University
Seminars
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A buffet lunch will be available to those who RSVP by 12:00 p.m. Monday, May 3 to Debbie Warren at dawarren@stanford.edu. Douglas H. Paal is the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial instrument for U.S. relations with Taiwan. Previously, he was president of the Asia Pacific Policy Center (APPC), a nonprofit institution in Washington, DC, which advocated bipartisan policy in the promotion of trade and investment, as well as defense and security ties across the Pacific. Prior to forming the APPC, Mr. Paal was special assistant to President Bush for National Security Affairs and senior director for Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, where he also served in the Reagan Administration. Mr. Paal has worked in the State Department with the Policy Planning Staff and as a senior analyst for the CIA. He also served in the U.S. Embassies in Singapore and Beijing. He studied Asian history at Brown and Harvard Universities and the Japanese language in Tokyo. He has published frequently on Asian affairs and national security issues.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Douglas Paal Director American Institute in Taiwan
Seminars
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Dr. Nasr's talk will focus on the implications of change of the balance of power between Shi'as and Sunnis for regional politics in Iraq and for the emerging trends in Sunni militancy in the region.

Vali Nasr is a specialist on contemporary Islam and its relations to politics in the Muslim world. His recent work is focused on emerging patterns in Islamism, in particular with regard to Shi'i-Sunni sectarianism. He is the author of The Islamic Leviathan: Islam and the Making of State Power (Oxford University Press, 2001); Mawdudi and the Making of Islamic Revivalism (Oxford University Press, 1996); an editor of Oxford Dictionary of Islam (Oxford University Press, 2003). His works on political Islam and comparative politics of South Asia and the Middle East has been published in a number of journals including, the New York Times, Comparative Politics, Asian Survey, Daedalus, Middle East Journal, and International Journal of Middle East Studies, as well as in numerous edited volumes on the Middle East, South Asia, political Islam and comparative politics. His work has been translated into Arabic, Indonesian, Chinese, and Urdu. Dr. Nasr has been the recipient of fellowship grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, and the Social Science Research Council.

Dr. Nasr earned his degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Ph.D., 1991), the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (MALD, 1984), and Tufts University (BA, 1983).

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Vali Nasr Professor, Middle Eastern and South Asian Affairs Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
Seminars
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A buffet lunch will be available to those who RSVP by 12:00pm, Wednesday, April 21 to Rakhi Patel. In the last three years, partly as the result of the efforts of a burgeoning conservative movement, the issue of human rights in North Korea has attained greater prominence in the statements and policy positions of the U.S. government. The administration connects this shift in emphasis in U.S. policy to its calls for greater moral clarity in foreign policy. At the same time, the administration has clearly enunciated its desire for regime change in North Korea, and the human rights issue has served as a method of cultivating public support for this policy, both domestically and internationally. Toward this end, the administration has revived a Cold War foreign policy approach from the 1970s and 1980s that connected human rights to economic and security issues--exemplified in the Jackson-Vanik amendment linking trade to emigration levels for Soviet Jews and the inclusion of human rights issues in the 1975 Helsinki Accords. The application of this model to North Korea demonstrates a failure to understand the differences between Eastern Europe and East Asia in general and the nature of civil society under Soviet communism and North Korean juche. It also fails to draw any useful lessons from the experience of the European Union and South Korea in dealing with Pyongyang on human rights. The unquestionably dire human rights situation in North Korea--and the character of its government and society--requires a set of policy approaches that need updating from the Cold War period and adaptation to the North Korean and East Asian context. John Feffer's most recent book is North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis (Seven Stories, 2003). He is also the editor of the Foreign Policy in Focus book Power Trip: U.S. Unilateralism and Global Policy after September 11 (Seven Stories, 2003). His other books include Beyond Detente: Soviet Foreign Policy and U.S. Options (Hill & Wang, 1990) and Shock Waves: Eastern Europe After the Revolutions (South End, 1992). His other edited collections include Living in Hope: People Challenging Globalization (Zed Books, 2002) and (with Richard Caplan) Europe's New Nationalism: States and Minorities in Conflict (Oxford University Press, 1996). His articles have appeared in The American Prospect, The Progressive, Newsday, Asiaweek, Asia Times, TomPaine.com, Salon.com, and elsewhere. He is a former associate editor of World Policy Journal and has worked for the American Friends Service Committee, most recently as an international affairs representative in East Asia. He serves on the advisory committees of FPIF and the Alliance of Scholars Concerned about Korea.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Seminars
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