Climate change
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Biotechnology (or biotech) has impacted almost every aspect of human life. It has reorganized industries, drastically changed healthcare, helped to improve the environment, and led to important changes in laws and ethical norms.

Among the various biotech fields, medical biotech has been by far the most influential, beneficial, and controversial. It has generated not only superlative discoveries to improve the lifespan and quality of human life, but also the greatest amount of wealth for all the players involved, and the greatest volume of public debate.

Several important trends are shaping the future of the pharmaceutical (or pharma) and biotech industries. The biotech industry is characterized by the presence of strong clusters in all countries. The pharma and biotech industries are experiencing an outsourcing phenomenon, mainly due to a lack of in-house expertise and efficiencies. Diagnostics and therapeutics are increasingly converging, a trend that will lead to predictive and precise diagnostics and personalized and preventive medicine. The first few years of the twenty-first century have witnessed significant changes in the pharma/biotech alliance landscape. Today we are seeing the “omic”-ization of the biotech industry: most of the emerging technologies are genomics, proteomics, cellomics, and pharmacogenomics. In addition, the biotech industry faces uphill ethical issues, including excessive marketing, third-world drug availability, genetic engineering, stem cells, and cloning.

The medical biotech industry faces several challenges. First, science, the human body, and disease are, essentially, complex. Second, unlike other high-technology industries, the biotech product development cycle is very long, even after proof of concept. Biotech projects take between ten and twenty years to become successful and cost over $200–300 million before a product reaches the market. Third, delivery of most biotech products and therapies is complex and can be painful, often involving intravenous delivery. Fourth, the preceding three factors pose significant challenges for research and development (R&D) financing. In addition, there are certain outside determinants that influence the biotech industry, including regulation, demography, reimbursement climate, and big pharma companies.

Stem cell research is one of the most fascinating areas of biology, but it raises questions as rapidly as it generates new discoveries. The greatest potential application of this research is the generation of cells and tissues that can be used for cell-based therapies. A stem cell is a special kind of cell that has a unique capacity to renew itself and to give rise to specialized cell types. Through the process of differentiation, stem cells form various tissues and organs, and the combination of these differentiated materials develops into the whole human body. This class of human stem cell holds the promise of being able to repair or replace cells or tissues that are damaged or destroyed by many of our most devastating diseases.

Diabetes mellitus is a group of diseases characterized by high levels of blood glucose resulting from defects in insulin production, insulin action, or both. Diabetes mellitus is a type I diabetes—also called juvenile-onset diabetes or insulin-dependent diabetes—and develops when the body’s immune system destroys pancreatic beta cells, the only cells in the body that make the insulin that regulates blood glucose. Type II diabetes, also called adult-onset diabetes or noninsulin-dependent diabetes, may account for 90–95 percent of all diagnosed cases of diabetes. There are more than 194 million diabetics worldwide, with this number expected to exceed 333 million by 2025.

Insulin is currently the most effective drug for controlling hyperglycemia and is widely accepted as the gold standard for treating type I diabetes and even late-stage type II diabetes. However, physicians and patients are reluctant to use insulin until other less effective drugs have been attempted. This is mainly because insulin therapy is invasive and painful: patients must take insulin intravenously.

One of the most promising ways to cure diabetes is to restore the function of islet cells biologically, either through islet cell transplantation or by engineering cells to restore the insulin secreting function. Islet transplantation, a procedure that can restore insulin production in patients, is a highly promising area of research.

Based on analysis of stem cell research, diabetes market opportunities, and the development of stem cell therapies, it is possible to place a value on a company in the early (preclinical) development stage of a stem cell therapy for diabetes. Such an exercise involves valuing a company based on three different approaches—(1) the discounted cashflow model, (2) the royalty or licensing model, and (3) the comparables valuation model. Sensitivity analysis based on market, pricing, costing, R&D, and development stage can further lead to precise valuation range for a given company.

For biotechnology companies, various drivers play a critical role in company valuation, including people (management team), alliances and partnerships, intellectual property rights, R&D and technology, funding and financing, market opportunity, and therapeutic area.

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Shorenstein APARC
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Meeting the world's energy needs and at the same time reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is one of the grand challenges humans must face in this century. China's situation illustrates the magnitude of the challenge as well as any place in the world. Its economy is growing rapidly, energy shortages abound, and a primary source of energy is coal. This talk reviews China's current and projected future emissions of carbon dioxide, examines alternatives for meeting the combined goals of increasing energy supply and reducing emissions, and describes research underway to provide more options to meet the challenges China faces.

Lynn Orr focuses his research activities on the interactions of fluid phase behavior with multiphase flow in porous media, the design of gas injection processes for enhanced oil recovery, and C02 sequestration in subsurface porous media. In August 2005, Dr. Orr and the Global Climate and Energy Project hosted an international conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China, to explore opportunities for collaborative research to integrate advanced coal technologies with CO2 capture and storage in China.

This series is co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

Philippines Conference Room

Franklin M. Orr Keleen and Carlton Beal Professor of Petroleum Engineering, Professor, by courtesy, in Chemical Engineering and Director of the Precourt Institute for Energy, FSI senior fellow by courtesy Speaker Stanford University
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Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The "Go West" policy was introduced in 1999.

In Chengdu, as with many other Chinese cities, a complex interplay of government and private, local, national, and increasingly transnational forces have influenced urban growth. Responding to changes in local, national, and international economic drivers, Chengdu is redefining its economic roles and functions, with direct consequences for the city's physical form. In turn, the spatial manifestation of urban development has important implications for Chengdu's economic potential, social and political stability, and environmental and ecological functioning. Extensive, as opposed to compact, urban form requires massive infrastructure investments, increases energy demand, and has broad environmental impacts, including local and regional climate change, loss of wildlife habitat and biodiversity, and increases in pressures on water resources. From the provision of clean drinking water to the construction of transportation and waste water networks, every aspect of the urbanization process has significant environmental implications.

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Shorenstein APARC
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Douglas Webster
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India is the fourth largest producer of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion. At current growth rates, its emissions will surpass those of the US today by 2022. India's carbon emissions growth can be slowed through improving energy efficiency, a better allocation of fossil fuels, and the increased use of renewable energy or natural gas. Many or most of these options are cost-effective from a societal perspective, but require additional capital and foreign exchange, both of which are issues of concern to India. The ongoing liberalization of the Indian economy, and the greater emphasis on controlling local air pollution bodes well for improving energy efficiency, which will slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Dr. Jayant Sathaye is a Senior Scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. His research subjects are energy and land use change in the developing countries. Over the past decade, the research has focused on the implications of these two factors on greenhouse gas emissions, and the potential for reducing these emissions. The research is supported by several US government agencies and private foundations. Dr. Sathaye also consults with several United Nations organizations, and the World Bank.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Jayant Sathaye Senior Scientist Speaker Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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The history of Indian power sector is abound with myths like those that envisioned the big projects as "temples of modern India" some fifty years ago, to the recent characterization of the sector as a "millstone" hindering economic development. The dynamics of the sector provides a classic case of the debate on the role of state versus that of the market in developing economies. Lately, economic realism has led to reforms for developing competitive electricity market. Under the changing dynamics, long-term policy needs to be based on some robust insights. In this talk, the speaker will present an analysis of Indian power sector under different scenarios that take into account the "success" of reforms, technology transfer regimes and local and global environmental concerns. Some insights will be offered vis-?-vis the well known debates on fossil energy options (coal versus gas), decentralization versus centralization, renewable and nuclear technologies, and the extent of linkage between local and global environmental policies. Discussion will also address the status of reforms and trends. P.R. Shukla is a Professor with the Public Systems Group at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He obtained Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1979. He has been a consultant to the Government of India and several national and international organizations. He is a leading expert on developing country policy, especially in the areas of energy, environment and technology. He is a lead author of several international reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). He is a co-author of eight books and numerous publications in reputed international journals and invited articles in books and proceedings.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

P.R. Shukla Professor of Public Systems Speaker Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
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