International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a host of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin in Autumn quarter 2025.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and contemporary Asia broadly defined, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Asia Health Policy Program Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, the fellowship is awarded to one recent PhD undertaking original research on contemporary health or healthcare policy of high relevance to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024.

Japan Program Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024.  

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024. 
 

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The Center offers multiple fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in Autumn quarter 2025. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, a visiting scholar position on contemporary Taiwan, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

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The alliance between the United States and South Korea has endured through seven decades of shifting regional and geopolitical security contexts. Yet it now faces challenges from within. Domestic political turmoil, including deepening political polarization and rising nationalism in both countries, has cast doubt on the alliance's viabilitywith critical implications for the balance of power in East Asia.

In this talk, Scott Snyder will discuss the internal and external pressures on the U.S.-South Korea alliance and explore its future prospects. He argues that nationalist leaders' accession to power could put past successes at risk and endanger the national security objectives of both countries. In the United States, "America First" nationalism favors self-interest over cooperation and portrays allies as burdens or even free riders. "Korea first" sentiments, in both progressive and conservative forms, present the U.S. military presence in South Korea as an obstacle to Korean reconciliation or a shackle on South Korea's freedom of action.

Snyder will also examine North Korea's attempts to influence South Korean domestic politics and how China's growing strength has affected the dynamics of the alliance. He considers scenarios in which the U.S.-South Korea relationship weakens or crumbles, emphasizing the consequences for the region and the world. Drawing on this analysis, Snyder offers timely recommendations for stakeholders in both countries on how to preserve and strengthen the alliance.

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Scott A. Snyder is president and chief executive officer at the Korea Economic Institute of America. Previously, he was senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations from 2011 to March 2024. Mr. Snyder is the author of The United States-South Korea Alliance: Why It May Fail and Why It Must Not (December 2023) and South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers (January 2018). Mr. Snyder received a BA from Rice University and an MA from the regional studies East Asia program at Harvard University.

Scott A. Snyder, President and CEO, Korea Economic Institute of America
Seminars
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headshots of Carlin and Hecker

This event is available to in-person attendees and will not be livestreamed.

In this talk, Carlin and Hecker will discuss the answer to the question posed in their recent article Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? and share its background and the reactions to it.

About the Speakers:

Robert Carlin

Robert Carlin, a longtime analyst of North Korea and frequent visitor to the DPRK, is currently a non-resident scholar at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. From 2006-2022, he was a consultant at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. Before that, he was a political advisor at the Korean Economic Development Organization (KEDO), a multinational consortium organized to carry out key provisions of the 1994 US-DPRK Agreed Framework. From 1989, Carlin was in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, concurrently taking part as an intelligence advisor in a range of negotiations with the DPRK. In various capacities, Carlin has visited North Korea over 30 times. He is the co-author with Don Oberdorfer of The Two Koreas, third edition, 2014. 

Sig Hecker portrait

Siegfried Hecker is an internationally recognized expert in plutonium science, global threat reduction, and nuclear security. He is currently a professor of practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and in the Department of Nuclear Engineering at Texas A&M University. Hecker served at the Los Alamos National Laboratory for 34 years, including 12 years as director from 1986 through 1997. He was affiliated with Stanford University for 17 years, including 6 years as co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). At Stanford, he was a professor (research) in the Department of Management Science and Engineering and a senior fellow at CISAC. Dr. Hecker is the editor of Doomed to Cooperate (2016), two volumes documenting the history of Russian-U.S. laboratory-to-laboratory cooperation, and Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea’s Nuclear Program (2023) written with Elliot Serbin.

All media representatives interested in covering the event or accessing the event site should contact aparc-communications@stanford.edu by 5 PM Pacific Time, Tuesday, March 5.

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A related event by the speakers held at APARC in 2020 is available to view at https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/experts-korea-discuss-future-north-korea-amidst-escalations.

Gi-Wook Shin
Gi-Wook Shin
Robert Carlin
Siegfried Hecker
Panel Discussions
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Slow Boil: What to Expect from North Korea in 2024

In this talk, Professor Victor Cha will discuss historical behavioral patterns of North Korean missile tests, military provocations, and weapons demonstrations, and what all these might mean for security on the Korean peninsula in 2024.

About the Speaker:

headshot of Victor Cha

Victor Cha is Distinguished University Professor, D.S. Song-KF Chair, and Professor of Government at Georgetown University. He is also Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He is the author of seven books including Korea: A New History of South Korea and North (Yale University Press, 2023) with Ramon Pacheco Pardo. Black Box: Methods and Data in the Study of Korean Unification and North Korea (Columbia University Press, 2024) is forthcoming.

Professor Cha was appointed in 2021 by Biden administration to serve on the Defense Policy Board in an advisory role to the Secretary of Defense. He formerly served on the White House National Security Council where he was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula, Australia/New Zealand and Pacific Island affairs. He was also the Deputy Head of Delegation for the United States at the Six Party Talks in Beijing, and received two Outstanding Service Commendations during his tenure at the NSC.

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Victor Cha, Professor of Government, Georgetown University
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As nationalism and identity politics have come to dominate public spheres around the world, researchers strive to understand the repercussions of such political behavior. How does nationalism affect the health of a democratic system, and when might it foster well-functioning liberal democracy?

This is the central question that Gidong Kim, APARC’s 2023-25 Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow, seeks to answer. Kim’s research, situated at the intersection of comparative politics and political economy, focuses on nationalism and identity politics, inequality and redistribution, and migration in South Korea and East Asia. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Missouri. In his dissertation, “Nationalism and Redistribution in New Democracies: Nationalist Legacies of Authoritarian Regimes,” he investigated the micro-level underpinnings that sustain weak welfare systems in developmental states. 

As part of his fellowship, Kim works with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), a new initiative housed at Shorenstein APARC under the directorship of Professor Gi-Wook Shin. The Lab works to provide evidence-based policy recommendations to help implement structural reforms that foster a “Next Asia” characterized by social, cultural, and economic maturity.

On January 24, 2024, Dr. Kim will present his research at a seminar hosted by the Korea Program. You can register for the event, "Narratives of Inclusion: Evidence from South Korea’s Migration Challenge."

We caught up with Dr. Kim to hear more about his fellowship experience this academic year and what’s next. The conversation has been slightly edited for length and clarity. 

First off, can you describe your current research project?

Broadly speaking, as a comparative political scientist, I study nationalism and its behavioral consequences with a regional focus on Korea and East Asia. More specifically, because nationalism is sometimes harmful to liberal democracy, but it can also be helpful, I research when and how national sentiments have either negative or positive effects on liberal democracy through citizens’ political attitudes and behaviors, such as voting behavior, redistribution preferences, migration attitudes, and public opinion on foreign policy.  

How did you come to be interested in this topic?

I was born and raised in South Korea and earned my B.A. and M.A. in political science at a Korean university before pursuing my Ph.D. in the United States. Because I was originally interested in partisan politics, my goal was to understand how American voters think and behave, so that I can explain Korean politics using theories developed in the United States. However, as I took graduate seminars about American politics, I – both as a Korean and as an East Asian – learned that such theories could not be applied well to the Korean and East Asian context.  

It was my second year of the Ph.D. program when I had academic dissatisfaction about the discrepancy between Western theories and East Asian reality. Dr. Aram Hur, my doctoral advisor, has significantly influenced my academic interests and identity. Every conversation that I had with her led me to new insights.

APARC provides me with the best academic environment. If I want to develop and sharpen my research ideas, I can share my ideas anytime with excellent scholars who always give me constructive feedback.
Gidong Kim
2023-25 Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow

In particular, we focused on nationalism, which can arise not only from each country’s different historical trajectories but also from citizens’ different interpretations and understandings of such trajectories. Since then, based on my personal experience and knowledge of Korea, I tried to challenge the extant political science theories to offer my explanation of Korean and East Asian political dynamics, especially through a lens of nationalism.  

How has your time at APARC as a Korea Program Postdoc helped your research?

APARC provides me with the best academic environment. First, everyone at the Center is open and always welcomes me whenever I need their help. For example, if I want to develop and sharpen my research ideas, I can share my ideas anytime with excellent scholars who always give me constructive feedback. I believe the in-person conversations I can have whenever necessary are the best part of APARC from which I benefit.

Moreover, both the Korea Program and APARC organize many events. Our events feature not only scholars but also policymakers. This is a tremendous help because I believe the ultimate goal of doing research is to make a better society. 

I felt that many U.S. social science Ph.D. programs, including in political science, aim to train their Ph.D. students as researchers who can write papers, less as leaders who can contribute to our communities. But the diverse events at the Korea Program and APARC keep reminding me of the importance of both roles by giving me a balanced perspective.

Are there any individuals who you connected with during your time at APARC?

Since I came here, I met diverse faculty members and excellent students. But I want to share my interactions with Research Fellow Dr. Xinru Ma and Postdoctoral Fellow Dr. Junki Nakahara. Because we share an office, we always have opportunities to discuss our research ideas, different perspectives, and even daily lives. In particular, while I’m a comparative political scientist, Xinru is an international relations (IR) scholar and Junki is a communication scholar. Because we have different academic foundations, this collaborative environment is extremely helpful for me to sharpen my research ideas.

As a junior scholar, I plan to focus on my research into nationalism and its political behavioral consequences. The projects I am leading at SNAPL focus on how the international relations context...shapes global citizens’ attitudes toward neighboring countries and foreign policy.
Gidong Kim
2023-25 Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow

Can you describe the new SNAPL lab and share a bit about your experience?

SNAPL is led by Prof. Gi-Wook Shin, and its full name is ‘Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab.’ As you can see from the name, SNAPL has two main goals. First, we address emerging political, social, economic, and cultural challenges in Asia that can direct the ‘next’ Asia. Second, we also try to provide ‘policy’ solutions to those challenges to make the next Asia better. In other words, our ultimate goal is to upgrade Asia to the next level.  

For those goals, we gather every week. Because Xinru, Junki, and I are leading different, but interconnected, projects at SNAPL, we share ongoing respective research at our weekly meetings with Prof. Shin as well as our two excellent research associates, Haley and Irene. 

When we discuss together, we sometimes criticize each other and sometimes cannot reach a consensus. But eventually, our active debates lead us to come up with new ideas and find solutions together. 

This weekly SNAPL meeting is my favorite time because I can share my research, get insightful feedback from Prof. Shin, learn from Xinru and Junki, and also get excellent support from both Haley Gordon and Irene Kyoung. I believe this is the best way of doing research, which is extremely rare in the social science field.

What is on the horizon for you? What's next?

First, as a junior scholar, I plan to focus on my research into nationalism and its political behavioral consequences. The projects I am leading at SNAPL focus on how the international relations context, such as the growing U.S.-China tensions and dynamics of alliance relationships, shapes global citizens’ attitudes toward neighboring countries and foreign policy. Because these projects are fundamentally related to national sentiments, by focusing on my SNAPL projects, I want to not only contribute to SNAPL as a postdoctoral fellow but also produce good research as an independent scholar.

Second, as my long-term goal, I want to further promote Korean studies in the United States. Despite the growing academic and public interest in Korea, many people still have a limited understanding of the country. 

As a scholar, one way that I can think of to offer a better explanation of Korea is to actively produce scholarly works, such as books and papers, and more importantly, to share them through diverse networks. Thus, someday in the future, I want to lead an institute for Korean Studies and create diverse channels to share such works. 

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Gi-Wook Shin on a video screen in a TV studio speaking to a host of South Korean-based Arirang TV.
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Video Interview: Gi-Wook Shin's 2024 Forecast for South Korea's Politics, Diplomacy, and Culture

APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin joined Arirang News to examine geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Korean Peninsula in 2024, North Korea's intentions, Japan-U.S.-South Korea trilateral cooperation, Seoul-Beijing relations, tensions over Taiwan, and South Korean politics and soft power.
Video Interview: Gi-Wook Shin's 2024 Forecast for South Korea's Politics, Diplomacy, and Culture
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Gidong Kim
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Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow Gidong Kim discusses his research into nationalism and its behavioral consequences in Korea and East Asia.

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The 21 member economies of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum met in San Francisco from November 11-17 at the APEC Leaders’ Week to discuss trade, sustainable development, technological innovation, and other pressing issues. The occasion also provided opportunities for APEC member leaders to hold bilateral meetings, of which perhaps the most highly anticipated was a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Shorenstein APARC experts explain the implications of the APEC convening, analyze the deliverables from the Biden-Xi meeting, and examine issues that cast a shadow on the U.S. relations with Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world's fourth-most populous country. Continue reading below for a roundup of our experts’ analysis and commentary featured in U.S. and international media.

Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive our experts' analysis >


Meeting face-to-face for the first time in a year on the sidelines of the APEC Summit, Biden and Xi discussed issues spanning military and trade relations, signaling a willingness to bring a degree of stability to the rocky U.S.-China bilateral relations. Ties between the two countries have deteriorated amid tensions like those in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, disputes about technology competition, and the February 2023 Chinese spy balloon incident. APARC fellows consider the significance of the Biden-Xi meeting in numerous articles and interviews in the press.

[China’s] economic difficulties and their implications for social stability and regime legitimacy have made Beijing more eager to improve relations with countries important to its economy than was the case six to 12 months ago.
Thomas Fingar

The United States and China each have reasons to meet now and reduce hostilities. For President Biden, the upcoming 2024 presidential election is ample impetus to work for a better relationship with the Chinese. For Beijing, as Center Fellow Thomas Fingar tells the Japan Times, the country’s “economic difficulties and their implications for social stability and regime legitimacy have made Beijing more eager to improve relations with countries important to its economy than was the case six to 12 months ago.” And Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro notes in the Christian Science Monitor that “both sides are trying to present to the rest of the world that they have things under control,” something that requires “predictable, high-level engagement.”

Most analysts, however, held low expectations for substantive outcomes from the meeting between the two leaders. According to Mastro, there is no indication of improvement in the tension between the two sides because neither the United States nor China is ready to make “any significant concession,” she argues on NBC News.

One reason for that is an aversion to political risk. As Mastro tells KCRW’s Madeleine Brand on Press Play: “There’s no political appetite for [thinking outside the box]. Political leaders want to make sure any policy will 100% work before they're willing to embark on it. But in the world of geopolitics, it's really hard to know that before you try things and experiment and assess and reassess.”

That said, just the very fact of the meeting taking place could represent an essential signal to Chinese officials, as Fingar points out to NBC News: “For there really to be a movement for lower levels of the [Chinese] system to engage in specifics, it needs a refreshed endorsement from Xi.” 

One outcome many were looking for was a resumption of U.S.-China military communications, what defense analysts call “mil-to-mil exchanges.” The Chinese severed these in 2022 when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. With close encounters between American and Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea becoming almost commonplace, communications at the military senior level are critical to prevent escalation. But restoring these ties would have limited value because, as Mastro tells NPR, “You can expect that, the next time [the Chinese] get unhappy about something, maybe after the Taiwan election, they cut them off again. So, unless we have some sort of commitment to sustained engagement, the mil-to-mil exchanges are unlikely to be sufficient to stabilize the relationship.”
 

Unless we have some sort of commitment to sustained engagement, the mil-to-mil exchanges are unlikely to be sufficient to stabilize the [U.S.-China] relationship.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

The Biden-Xi meeting took place on the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The United States is concerned that China — as a good friend of Iran and one of the largest importers of its gas and oil — could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and potentially exacerbate tensions. However, Mastro argues that bringing up the Middle East in the context of the U.S.-China bilateral meeting only serves to aid Beijing in its propaganda efforts. As she says on KTVU Fox 2 News, “China does not really care what happens [in the Middle East]. But they are leveraging the support, especially in the developing world, in the Global South, for Hamas to push back against the United States and basically use Israel as a proxy for discontent about what they call ‘American unilateralism,’ ‘American hegemony.’” 

The conflict in the Middle East came up in another high-level meeting when Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Biden in Washinton before heading to the APEC forum. Although U.S.-Indonesian security cooperation is good and trade has grown, Jakarta is unhappy with the White House for several reasons. Among these, the war in Gaza was probably foremost in Widodo’s mind, writes Ambassador Scot Marciel, the Oksenberg-Rholen Fellow at APARC, in an essay for The Diplomat magazine. “Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, has long supported the Palestinian cause and has vigorously pursued diplomatic efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire.” Thus, Indonesian public opinion has put Jakarta and Washington at odds over the Israel-Hamas crisis, explains Marciel.

Indonesians also remain upset by the snub of Biden skipping the recent East Asia Summit and by “what they see as Washington’s failure to deliver on the high-profile Just Energy Transition Partnership, under which the U.S. committed to lead G-7-plus efforts to mobilize $20 billion to support Indonesia’s accelerated transition from coal to cleaner energy,” Marciel writes, urging Washington to engage Jakarta seriously on these issues before Indonesia is heading into crucial presidential elections in early 2024.


More Media Coverage

For more coverage of the APEC forum and Biden-Xi meeting with analysis by APARC scholars, visit the links below:

Kishida and Xi Aim for Trade Progress Despite Lingering Tensions
The Japan Times, November 17, 2023

Biden, Xi Set to Pledge Ban on AI in Autonomous Weapons Like Drones, Nuclear Warhead Control
South China Morning Post, November 17, 2023

Oriana Skylar Mastro on the Xi-Biden Meeting on the Sidelines of APEC 
BBC Sounds, November 15, 2023

Biden, Xi Eye Economic, Military Thaw in High-Stakes Meeting
Bloomberg Technology, November 15, 2023

US Grants Chinese Journalists Hundreds of Visas to Cover APEC
Bloomberg News, November 14, 2023

Xi’s Arrival in US Brings Protesters and Fans Onto Streets
Bloomberg News, November 14, 2023

U.S.-China: One Summit, Two Different Goals for Biden and Xi
Nikkei Asia, November 14, 2023

Presidents Xi and Biden Seek to Turn Back the Clock in San Francisco
Time Magazine, November 14, 2023

China's Xi Jinping to meet with Biden in San Francisco
NPR, November 11, 2023

Biden, Xi Set to Pledge Ban on AI in Autonomous Weapons Like Drones, Nuclear Warhead Control
South China Morning Post, November 11, 2023

Biden and Xi to Seek to Stabilize Relations in California Meeting
New York Times, November 10, 2023

APEC Offers Important Chance to Stabilize Tense U.S.-China Relations
San Francisco Examiner, November 10, 2023

Joe Biden, Xi Jinping Set to Steal APEC Spotlight with Talks to Steady Ties
Reuters, November 8, 2023
 

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Prime Minister of Japan, Kishida Fumio (right), and the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol (left)
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Korea, Japan Leaders Call for Global Cooperation in Advancing New Technologies, Clean Energy at Summit Discussion

At a historic meeting held at Stanford, the leaders of Japan and Korea discussed the perils and promises of new innovations and the importance of collaboration.
Korea, Japan Leaders Call for Global Cooperation in Advancing New Technologies, Clean Energy at Summit Discussion
Larry Greenwood, Larry Goulder, Thomas Fingar
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Scholars and Experts Discuss APEC’s Role in Addressing Energy Challenges in Asia

The third installment of Shorenstein APARC’s fall seminar series examined energy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and the role of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in facilitating collaborative clean energy solutions.
Scholars and Experts Discuss APEC’s Role in Addressing Energy Challenges in Asia
Panelists gather to discuss APEC
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Trade Experts Gather to Discuss APEC’s Role and Relevance

Ahead of the 2023 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) convening in San Francisco, APARC kicked off its fall seminar series, Exploring APEC’s Role in Facilitating Regional Cooperation, with a panel discussion that examined APEC’s role and continued relevance in a rapidly-evolving Asia-Pacific region.
Trade Experts Gather to Discuss APEC’s Role and Relevance
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World leaders sit around a table during the APEC 2023 summit in San Francisco.
World leaders sit around a table during the APEC Leaders Retreat on the last day of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Week at Moscone Center on November 17, 2023, in San Francisco, California. Photo credit: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
Kent Nishimura/ Getty Images
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The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, which concluded the 2023 APEC host year for the United States, included a highly-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Shorenstein APARC scholars weigh in on the significance of the meeting in the context of China’s geopolitical ambitions, the outcomes of the APEC summit, and other topics.

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Encina Hall backdrop with text "A Summit Discussion with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan and President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea"

This event is at full capacity and has closed for registration. There is no waitlist.
No walk-ins will be accepted.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is honored to host the Prime Minister of Japan, Kishida Fumio, and the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, for a special summit discussion. The event co-hosts are the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Hoover Institution.

Portraits of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan and President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea.


Following remarks by Prime Minister Kishida and President Yoon on the challenges and future of science and technology, they will engage in a moderated conversation with Secretary Condoleezza Rice, the Tad and Dianne Taube Director of the Hoover Institution. Discussion topics include decarbonization and clean energy, quantum technology, and startup innovation.

Speakers will also include Professors Gi-Wook Shin and Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Director and Deputy Director of APARC, respectively, and Professor Michael McFaul, Director of FSI.

This historic gathering on the Stanford campus of the leaders of the two key U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific — a convening that would have been almost unthinkable just over a year ago — follows a period in which the two leaders have made extraordinary progress in strengthening Japan-ROK bilateral relations, and is particularly significant in the aftermath of the August 2023 Camp David U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral summit, which has been touted as the beginning of a new era in trilateral cooperation among the three allies as they seek to advance peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

This event is available to in-person attendees and will not be livestreamed.

When registering, please be sure to read carefully the terms and conditions for attendance.

Members of the press should follow the media advisory below. For press/media inquiries, please contact aparc-communications@stanford.edu.

We will keep registrants informed of any program revisions subject to Japanese, Korean, and U.S. government protocols.

1:00 p.m. 
Registration check-in opens

1:30 p.m.
Doors to the auditorium open

2:10 p.m.
Audience seated and doors to the auditorium close

2:30 p.m.
Event begins

Welcome
Michael McFaul
Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

Remarks
The Honorable Kishida Fumio
Prime Minister of Japan

The Honorable Yoon Suk Yeol
President of the Republic of Korea

Discussion
Moderated by 
Condoleezza Rice
Tad and Dianne Taube Director, Hoover Institution
Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public Policy, Hoover Institution
Denning Professor in Global Business and the Economy, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Senior Fellow, by courtesy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Q&A Session
Guided by 
Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Deputy Director, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director, Japan Program

Closing Remarks
Gi-Wook Shin
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Director, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director, Korea Program


Hauck Auditorium
David and Joan Traitel Building
Hoover Institution
435 Lasuen Mall
Stanford, CA 94305

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This announcement was updated on October 6, 2023, to reflect the addition of two new fellowship offerings focused on contemporary Taiwan.


The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a suite of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin fall quarter 2024.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on Asia-focused health policy; contemporary Japan; contemporary Asia broadly defined; postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions as part of the new Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab; and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, the fellowship is awarded annually to one recent PhD undertaking original research on contemporary health or healthcare policy of high relevance to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.  
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.  
 

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Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab team members at Encina Hall, Stanford
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New Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab to Tackle Emerging Challenges in Asia

Housed within the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the lab will pioneer evidence-based policy research to help Asian nations forge pathways to a future characterized by social, cultural, economic, and political maturity and advance U.S.-Asia dialogue.
New Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab to Tackle Emerging Challenges in Asia
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Stanford architectural columns with text "Call for Applications: Fall 2024 Fellowships" and APARC logo.
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The Center offers a suite of fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in fall quarter 2024. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

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Flyer for Asia in 2030, APARC@40 Conference and Celebration with an image of Encina Hall facade

The culmination of a special event series celebrating Shorenstein APARC's 40th Anniversary, "Asia in 2030, APARC@40"

Join us in celebrating APARC's 40 years of research, education, and engagement. Recognizing the accomplishments of the past four decades and looking forward to the future, the two-day program will highlight multiple aspects of APARC’s core areas of expertise and examine key forces affecting Asia’s present and shaping its future.

1-1:30 p.m.

Opening Session

Opening Remarks

Gi-Wook Shin
Director of Shorenstein APARC and the Korea Program
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor of Sociology
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University

Congratulatory Remarks

Kathryn Ann “Kam” Moler
Vice Provost and Dean of Research
Marvin Chodorow Professor
Professor of Applied Physics, Physics, and Energy Science Engineering
Stanford University

Condoleezza Rice
Tad and Dianne Taube Director of the Hoover Institution
Senior Fellow on Public Policy at the Hoover Institution
Denning Professor of Global Business and the Economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business
Professor of Political Science
Senior Fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University

Scott D. Sagan
Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science
Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University


1:30-2:45 p.m. 

The Future of Diplomacy

John Everard
Former Ambassador to Belarus, Uruguay, and North Korea for the United Kingdom
Coordinator of the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts on North Korea
Former Pantech Fellow at Shorenstein APARC

Laura Stone
Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Maldives
Former Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for China and Mongolia;
Former Director of the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs
Former Director of Economic Policy Office in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs
Visiting Scholar and Inaugural China Policy Fellow at Shorenstein APARC at Stanford University

Moderator

Michael Beeman
Former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea, and APEC at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative
Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University


2:45-3 p.m. ~ Coffee and Tea Break


3-4:15 p.m.

The Future of Asian Studies

Panelists

Donald K. Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program at Shorenstein APARC
Affiliated Faculty with the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Affiliated Scholar with the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies
Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University

Thomas B. Gold
Professor of Sociology
University of California, Berkeley

Jisoo Kim
Korea Foundation Associate Professor of History, International Affairs, and East Asian Languages and Literatures
Director of the Institute for Korean Studies
Co-Director of the East Asia National Resource Center
The George Washington University

Moderator

Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Deputy Director of Shorenstein APARC
Director of the Japan Program
Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies
Professor of Sociology
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University


4:15-4:30 p.m. ~ Coffee and Tea Break


4:30-6 p.m.

Oksenberg Panel: The Future of U.S.-China Relations

Introduction

Jean C. Oi
Director of the China Program at Shorenstein APARC
Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University
William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University

Panelists

M. Taylor Fravel
Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director, Security Studies Program
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

David Michael Lampton
Professor Emeritus and former Hyman Professor and Director of SAIS-China and China Studies, School of Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University
Former Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at Shorenstein APARC

Oriana Skylar Mastro
Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University

Moderator

Thomas Fingar
Former U.S. Department of State Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis, Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific, and Chief of the China Division
Former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
Fellow at Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
 

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On April 26, 2023, in recognition of the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-Korea alliance, President Joe Biden will host President Yoon Suk Yeol for a State Visit to the United States. According to Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the fact that Yoon received the second such invitation of the Biden administration is a testimony to the centrality of the Korea-U.S. alliance to the peace and stability of the East Asian regions, especially at a time when the frayed U.S.-China relationship continues to degrade into a new Cold War, with a potential Taiwan contingency looming on the horizon. 

Shin, former South Korea's ambassador to China and former director general of the Asia Pacific Affairs Bureau at the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, is the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and a visiting scholar at APARC. He headlined this quarter’s Payne Lecture, speaking to an audience that gathered on March 1 for a timely discussion titled Sino-U.S. Relations and South Korea, co-hosted by APARC and FSI.

The Payne Lectureship at FSI, named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, aims to raise public understanding of the complex policy issues facing the global community and advance international cooperation. The lectureship brings to Stanford internationally esteemed leaders from academia and the policy world who combine visionary thinking and a broad, practical grasp of their fields with the capacity to provide insights into pressing challenges of global concern. Throughout the 2022-23 academic year, the Payne Lectureship hosts experts from Asia who examine crucial questions in U.S.-China relations.

Ambassador Shin is uniquely qualified to offer insight into South Korea's response to the pressures created by the U.S.-China rivalry, said APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, who chaired the event that included a discussion with Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on Chinese military and Asia security.


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The strategic distrust and intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China have put substantial pressure on South Korea, and South Korea's long-term policy to make a Korea-U.S. alliance compatible with its partnership with China is becoming more difficult.
Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin
Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow

China’s Dreams

Painting a picture of Chinese ambitions, Ambassador Shin enumerated China’s goals and the steps it has taken to achieve them. “The Chinese dream,” he said, “is to regain the colonial behavior of the Qing Dynasty, when China was a great power with about one-third of the global GDP.” To achieve this dream, China's leaders have pushed for its continued economic development while arousing patriotism and nationalism domestically. Through its military modernization campaign, China has rapidly shown its ambition to become the top-rated global military power by 2049, the centennial of the establishment of the People's Republic of China, he noted.

Ambassador Shin indicated that China has prepared for a long-term competition with the U.S. in the economic arena, as Xi Jinping introduced the dual circulation economic policy, which aims to reorient the country's economy by prioritizing domestic consumption while remaining open to international trade and investment. This policy, Shin argues, “is designed, in part, to make the [Chinese] economy less affected by external factors including the supply chain reset of the U.S.” As such, China has stressed the importance of innovation and has made massive investments in science and technology to reduce its reliance on Western economies. Moreover, China has promoted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to expand its political and economic influence.

“China became the second largest economic power and began to show assertiveness in its foreign policy, particularly by emphasizing the safeguarding of Chinese interests, namely, sovereignty and territorial integrity, state security and development interest,” stated Shin. To achieve these goals, “Chinese diplomats have voiced their arguments in an abrasive style, ‘Wolf Warrior diplomacy’ as it is called by Westerners.” This form of proactive engagement with the rest of the world has resulted in an intensifying strategic competition between the U.S. and China, which has made it increasingly difficult for South Korea to maintain simultaneous ties with both great powers.

No Longer on the Fence

Shin noted that “The strategic distrust and intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China have put substantial pressure on South Korea…and South Korea's long-term policy to make a Korea-U.S. alliance compatible with its partnership with China is becoming more difficult.” In recent years, South Korea has moved even closer to the U.S.

The joint communique issued when President Moon Jae-in visited Washington two years ago, already showed South Korea’s tilt toward the U.S. At the time, heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula by the North Korean nuclear and missile provocation necessitated the alliance. Now, an ascendant China, “together with the lessons of Ukraine, have made South Korean people pay close attention to the importance of the Korea-U.S. alliance,” stated Shin, noting that both nations openly stress the importance of freedom, democracy, and rule-based order. South Korea has become enthusiastic about tripartite cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, in tune with American policies. 

On the other hand, China warned South Korea to respect China's core interests while expressing its concerns on several strategic issues. Shin stated that “China began to demand the Yoon government to continue the three policy positions of the previous government, namely, no more deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), no participation in the American missile defense system, and no military alliance among Korea, Japan, and the U.S.” However, the current Foreign Minister Park Jin made it clear to the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang that the policy positions of the previous government do not bind the new government, Shin indicated.
 

The Taiwan Contingency

China also demands that South Korea not interfere in the Taiwan issue, arguing that Taiwan is a part of China, and the Taiwan Strait is part of China's internal affairs. When the joint communique after the moon-Biden summit two years ago touched on the Taiwan Strait for the first time, “the Chinese spokesperson warned South Korea not to play with fire,” said Shin. The Taiwan Strait is also regarded as an important sea transportation lane for South Korean goods and energy supply. “It is in South Korea's interest to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
Amb. Jung-Seung Shin at the Payne Lecture
Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offers his insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship.

Shin indicated the precarious nature of the contingency, stating, “South Korea has no intention of challenging the One China claim. However, the peace and stability of Taiwan Strait are also very important for South Korea, as the security situation of the Taiwan Strait is connected to the Korean peninsula.” Indeed, a military collision in the Taiwan Strait would be impossible to contain locally. “The U.S. and Japan are supposed to immediately help Taiwan to repel China’s military attack, and American bases are located in South Korea and Japan, including Okinawa,” he said.

Therefore, military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is likely to escalate to Northeast Asia, and a certain portion of American forces in South Korea could move to the Taiwan Strait in the contingency according to the strategic flexibility of forces, “which might induce North Korea's misjudgment to invade South Korea,” Shin predicted.
 

Looking to National Identity

According to Shin, South Korea’s foreign policies should be based on its national interests and reflect its identity and the values its people share. Therefore, South Korea should not only make efforts to further strengthen the KORUS alliance for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the region, but to properly manage its relations with China, Shin indicated. “Under these situations, the best scenario for South Korea would be that there is no strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, but rather proactive cooperation between them…But nobody in this room thinks it's realistic,” he said.
South Korea needs to have more consistent foreign policies based on its national interest in values shared by most South Koreans, and distance itself from polarized party politics.
Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin
Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow
Recognizing the difficulty in crafting a unified front in a time of deep political divides, Shin argued that “South Korea needs to have more consistent foreign policies based on its national interest in values shared by most South Koreans, and distance itself from polarized party politics. South Korean national interest is supposed to reflect its national identity. For example, South Korea is relatively small in the size of the land and population compared with neighboring countries.”
 
In addition to the geostrategic limitations of the nation, the Korean peninsula remains divided, and North Korea still holds weapons of mass destruction, representing a continual existential threat. “South Korea has been faced with constant challenges in the security and economic environments, yet the most important thing among others is that South Korea should further enhance its economic strengths, technological progress, and cultural power. South Korea is a democratic country with a market economy and it has been developed to the level of the Western countries, so there is a growing demand for more contribution to regional and global issues, particularly with human security in mind,” Shin stated.
 
However, Shin believes South Korea’s aims should not solely be limited to growth and alignment with the U.S., arguing that “Relations with China should be properly managed. China's cooperation is also needed for eventual peace and stability on the Korean peninsula…China is still the place with a considerable potential for South Korean trade and investment.”
 

The Cost of Deterrence

In her comments, Oriana Skylar Mastro agreed with Shin’s proposals and went on to suggest that it is in the best interest of all countries in the region to work together to try to enhance deterrence. In Mastro’s view, China is much more fearful of horizontal escalation, the involvement of other countries, than they are of vertical escalation, or increased violence with the U.S. While the South Korean role might not be a direct involvement, or fighting China, freeing up U.S. resources, or supporting the U.S. in more defensive or indirect roles could significantly tilt the balance such that China decides the use of force is not in its best interests.
 
Mastro described an ideal situation in which the U.S. and South Korea work together to enhance deterrence to the region, noting that “Deterrence is very costly, and it's very risky business for all the reasons that the professor laid out about the economic costs and peacetime potential downsides geopolitically of upsetting China or presenting a greater threat to China. But my own view is that while deterrence is difficult and costly, obviously war is even worse.”
 
Proceeding to examine the nature of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, Mastro proposed a broadening of the public conception of how alliances can work, stating that, “I like to think about how the two countries can work together to enhance South Korea's independent capacity and military capacity and ways that the U.S. and South Korea can fight together that aren't offensive in orientation.” Yet, the North Korea contingency remains an important and dangerous prospect. Mastro identified the persistent threat on South Korea’s border, stating that, “If U.S. forces get pulled off the peninsula, that could undermine deterrence vis-a-vis North Korea.”
 

Preventing Overextension

Overextension represents one of the largest limits on U.S. power projection. According to Mastro, one of the primary reasons that the Biden administration has not been talking about North Korea significantly, is the fact that the U.S. cannot fight a war on the Korean Peninsula and compete effectively with China.

The question is whether the U.S. could count on South Korea for some critical supplies during a conflict that could reduce the U.S. logistical burden.
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Center Fellow

Thus, Mastro proposes that the South Koreans play a greater role in their defense, a topic that comes up with NATO partners and allies in Europe as well. More specifically, Mastro suggests that the U.S. transfer operational command to South Korean forces, and that the South Korean military should allow the U.S. to practice greater strategic flexibility, to use its forces on the Korean Peninsula for operations or contingencies that are off the peninsula. Up until this point, that permission has been denied, but Mastro contends that it would be useful and could enhance deterrence. 

“If the South Koreans, along with their statements about wanting a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, also explicitly allowed for that strategic flexibility to take place to say that they understand that the role of U.S. forces on the Korean peninsula is primarily to deter and defend South Korea against North Korea, that could also play a potential role in wider contingencies,” she said.

Furthermore, Mastro believes that South Korea must play a greater role in the production and provision of certain types of munitions. “This is an area where the U.S. has struggled with its own manufacturing base that is considering licensing production and potentially doing it elsewhere. So the question is whether the U.S. could count on South Korea for some critical supplies during a conflict that could reduce the U.S. logistical burden,” she speculated.

South Korea is a small country, and it has limited resources, but it also has the second-largest reserve force and paramilitary force in the world, and the eighth-largest active duty force in the world. According to Mastro, “The South Korean military is technically 20 times larger than that of Japan's…it has punched above its own weight, like the Australian military has.”

It remains to be seen whether the U.S.-South Korea alliance will need to be tested in the coming years, but tensions with China will likely continue to define the two nation’s foreign policies. A potential Taiwan contingency remains one of the largest looming threats to the status quo and the most probable pathway to regional escalation, which, in Shin’s view, could draw North Korea and its nuclear arsenal into the fold.


The Payne Lectureship will return in the spring quarter, continuing with the theme of Asian perspectives on the U.S.-China relationship. We will be joined by Kokubun Ryosei, professor emeritus at Keio University and adjunct adviser at the Fujitsu Future Studies Center.

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Gi-Wook Shin, Amb. Jung-Seung Shin, and Oriana Skylar Mastro at the Winter Payne Lecture
(L to R) Gi-Wook Shin, Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, Oriana Skylar Mastro.
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Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offered insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship, the impacts of the great power competition between the United States and China on South Korea, and the prospects for enhanced Korea-U.S. collaboration.

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