2026 Oksenberg Conference – Coping with a Less Predictable United States

2026 Oksenberg Conference – Coping with a Less Predictable United States

Tuesday, March 3, 2026
2:00 PM - 5:30 PM
(Pacific)
Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall, First floor, Central, S150
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305
Speaker: 
  • Victor Cha, Da Wei, Mark Lambert, Katherine Monahan, Susan Shirk, Kathryn Stoner, Emily Tallo
Moderator: 
  • Thomas Fingar, Laura Stone
Flyer for the 2026 Oksenberg Conference, titled "Coping with a Less Predictable United States," including an image of President Trump board Air Force One.

The content, consistency, and predictability of U.S. policy shaped the global order for eight decades, but these lodestars of geopolitics and geoeconomics can no longer be taken for granted. What comes next will be determined by the ambitions and actions of major powers and other international actors.

Some have predicted that China can and will reshape the global order. But does it want to? If so, what will it seek to preserve, reform, or replace? Choices made by China and other regional states will hinge on their perceptions of future U.S. behavior — whether they deem it more prudent to retain key attributes of the U.S.-built order, with America playing a different role, than to move toward an untested and likely contested alternative — and how they prioritize their own interests.

This year’s Oksenberg Conference will examine how China and other Indo-Pacific actors read the geopolitical landscape, set priorities, and devise strategies to shape the regional order amid uncertainty about U.S. policy and the future of global governance.
 

PANEL 1 

China’s Perceptions and Possible Responses 


Moderator 

Thomas Fingar 
Shorenstein APARC Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University 

Panelists 

Da Wei 
Professor and Director, Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University 

Mark Lambert 
Retired U.S. Department of State Official, Formerly China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary 

Susan Shirk 
Research Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego 


PANEL 2 
Other Asia-Pacific Regional Actors’ Perceptions and Policy Calculations 


Moderator 

Laura Stone 
Retired U.S. Ambassador and Career Foreign Service Officer; Inaugural China Policy Fellow at APARC, Stanford University 

Panelists

Victor Cha 
Distinguished University Professor, D.S. Song-KF Chair, and Professor of Government, Georgetown University 

Katherine Monahan 
Visiting Scholar and Japan Program Fellow 2025-2026, APARC, Stanford University 

Kathryn Stoner 
Satre Family Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University 

Emily Tallo 
Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University