Policy Analysis
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Abstract 

Scholars have credited a model of state-led capitalism called the developmental state with producing the first wave of the East Asian economic miracle. Using historical evidence based on original archival research, this talk offers a geopolitical explanation for the origins of the developmental state. In contrast to previous studies that have emphasized colonial legacies or domestic political factors, I argue that the developmental state was the legacy of the rivalry between the United States and Communist China during the Cold War. Responding to the acute tensions in Northeast Asia in the early postwar years, the United States supported emergency economic controls in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to enforce political stability. In response to the belief that the Communist threat would persist over the long term, the U.S. strengthened its clients by laying the foundations of a capitalist, export-oriented economy under bureaucratic guidance. The result of these interventions was a distinctive model of state-directed capitalism that scholars would later characterize as a developmental state.

I verify this claim by examining the rivalry between the United States and the Chinese Communists and demonstrating that American threat perceptions caused the U.S. to promote unorthodox economic policies among its clients in Northeast Asia. In particular, I examine U.S. relations with the Chinese Nationalists on Taiwan, where American efforts to create a bulwark against Communism led to the creation of an elite economic bureaucracy for administering U.S. economic aid. In contrast, the United States decided not to create a developmental state in the Philippines because the Philippine state was not threatened by the Chinese Communists. Instead, the Philippines faced a domestic insurgency that was weaker and comparatively short-lived. As a result, the U.S. pursued a limited goal of maintaining economic stability instead of promoting rapid industrialization. These findings shed new light on the legacy of statism in American foreign economic policy and highlight the importance of geopolitics in international development.

 

Bio

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James Lee

James Lee is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Politics at Princeton University. He specializes in International Relations with a focus on U.S. foreign policy in East Asia and relations across the Taiwan Strait. James also serves as the Senior Editor for Taiwan Security Research, an academic website that aggregates news and commentary on the economic and political dimensions of Taiwan's security.

 

This event is co-sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative in the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), both part of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

James Lee Ph.D. Candidate Princeton University
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A recently published book in Korean by Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) director Gi-Wook Shin has been featured in various media in South Korea. In this book, Superficial Koreathe author discussed the importance of inter-Korea dialogue in dealing with North Korea issues.

The interviews and comments can be viewed in the following links:

Munwha Ilbo (interview in Korean)

Yonhap News (book review in Korean)

Munwha Ilbo (book review in Korean)

Kyunghyang Shinmun (book review in Korean)

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The seventeenth session of the Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum held on June 29, 2017 in Seoul convened senior South Korean and American policymakers, scholars and regional experts to discuss North Korea policy and recent developments on the Korean Peninsula. Hosted by the Sejong Institute in association with the Shorenstein APARC, the forum continued its focus on Northeast Asian regional dynamics, the North Korea problem, and the state of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. The participants engaged in candid, productive discussion about issues relating to these topics.

 
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616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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hyun_seung_cho.jpg Ph.D.

Ashton Cho is a 2017-2018 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia. His research focuses on U.S. and Chinese foreign policy towards East Asia's regional institutions with a broader interest in U.S.-China relations, the political economy of East Asia, and qualitative and mixed research methods. During his time at Shorenstein APARC Ashton will be developing his book manuscript on how U.S. and China compete over East Asia's institutional architecture.

Ashton holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University and a BSc and MSc from the London School of Economics.

He is located in the Central West wing at C338-I-2 and can be reached at ashtoncho@stanford.edu

More information can be found on his personal webpage www.ashtoncho.com

 
2017-2018 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia
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Through 20 weeks of persistent and peaceful demonstrations, South Koreans called for their former president's impeachment which resulted in a special presidential election in May. Moon Jae-in, a candidate from a progressive party, was elected and took over the Blue House immediately.

kim jin pyo headshot Kim Jin Pyo
Kim Jin-pyo who served as Chairman of the State Affairs Planning Advisory Committee under President Moon during the transition period will discuss the new administration's socio-economic policies on major topics including job creation, income growth, and a fair economy.

Kim, a National Assembly Member for a fourth term, served as Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Education and Human Resources Development (2005-06); Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy (2003-04); vice chairman of the transition committee under President Roh Moo-hyun; and Senior Secretary of Policy and Planning to President Kim Dae-jung in 2002.

Kim received a BA in law from Seoul National University and an MA in public administration from University of Wisconsin.

This event is open to the public and reservations are not required.

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Stanford, CA 94305
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Kim Jin-pyo <i>former Chairman of the State Affairs Planning Advisory Committee; National Assembly Member</i>, South Korea
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Rural areas of China have made remarkable progress in reducing adult mortality within the past 15 years yet broadened health insurance was not a casual factor in that decline, according to a new study by an international research team that includes Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston.

The New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS), a government-subsidized insurance program that began in 2002-03, expanded to cover all of rural China within a decade. Examining NCMS and cause-specific mortality data for a sample of 72 counties between 2004 and 2012, the researchers found that there were no significant effects of health insurance expansion on increased life expectancy.

The study, published in the September issue of Health Affairs, showed results consistent with previous studies that also did not find a correlation between insurance and survival, although much research confirms NCMS increased access to healthcare, including preventive services, and shielded families from high health expenditures.

Commenting on the study, Eggleston said population health policies remain central to China’s efforts to increase life expectancy and to bridge the gap between rural and urban areas.

Eggleston also noted that multiple factors beyond the availability of health care determine how long people live, and anticipates the research team will continue to explore the impacts of NCMS by extending the study to look at infants and youth.

Read the study (may require subscription) and view a related article on the Stanford Scope blog.

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Farmers dry star anise seeds in a country yard in Tanbin Township, China, Nov. 26, 2005.
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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump recently held a summit in Washington, their first face-to-face meeting in a time of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Experts from the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center offered insights in a series of publications and press interviews.

In advance of the summit, William J. Perry Fellow Kathleen Stephens spoke on Bloomberg television about the challenges facing the United States and South Korea, and how those challenges would be prioritized during the bilateral meeting.

Moon would be bringing the message that the U.S.-South Korea alliance is a “strong one and that he remains committed to it,” and that, “only by working transparently and closely together” could the two countries address areas of concern, Stephens said.

“Only when Washington and Seoul are able to talk very frankly to each other and come up with a coordinated plan do we have any chance of making some progress on North Korea,” she added.

Stephens joined the program from Seoul, where a group of Shorenstein APARC faculty and fellows participated in a public seminar and the Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum, a biannual conference that seeks to foster dialogue about issues affecting the Korean Peninsula and the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

The seminar, held in conjunction with The Sejong Institute, received press coverage; such articles can be read on the Voice of America website (in Korean) and Sisa Journal website (in Korean).

In an analysis piece for Tokyo Business Today, Associate Director for Research Daniel Sneider assessed the outcomes of the summit between Moon and Trump, suggesting that their meeting was satisfactory – without signs of major discord.

“For the most part, this display of calculated pragmatism worked well. There was no visible daylight between the two leaders over how to handle the North and THAAD totally disappeared from the summit talk, at least in public and in the joint statement issued by the two governments.”

The summit, however, may prove to be a “temporary gain,” Sneider added. “Beneath the smiles, there was plenty of evidence of the gaps, and even the tensions, that exist between a progressive government in Seoul, one that echoes the views of its ideological predecessors of a decade ago, and a nationalist, conservative regime in Washington.”

Read the piece in English and Japanese.

Days after the summit, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which the United States and South Korea followed by hosting joint military exercises.

Stephens spoke on WBUR radio about the ICBM test launch and the initial reactions of the Trump administration.

“If [President Trump’s] agenda is to take stronger defensive measures against North Korea, I think he will find strong partners in Japan and South Korea,” she said, noting that other measures, such as diplomacy and economic sanctions, have also been used to affect pressure on the regime.

Responding to a question about China’s relationship with North Korea, Stephens said Beijing has not exhausted all possible tools in its efforts to persuade Pyongyang to slow or abandon its nuclear and missile activities. This is because China fears a collapse of the regime and “takes a long view” in its calculus, she said.

This news item has been updated.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in come out from the Oval Office to deliver joint statements in the Rose Garden at the White House on June 30, 2017, in Washington, DC.
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The future of ASEAN is necessarily unknown. Its futures, however, can be guessed with less risk of being wrong. My purpose here is not to predict with confidence but to “pandict” with reticence—not to choose one assured future but to scan several that could conceivably occur. Also, what follows is merely a range, not the range.  The five different ASEANs of the future all too briefly sketched below are meant to be suggestive, but they are neither fully exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Potentiality outruns imagination. My hope is that by doing the easy thing—opening a few doors on paper—I may tempt analysts more knowledgeable than I to do the hard thing. That truly difficult challenge is to pick the one doorway through which ASEAN is most likely to walk or be pushed through—and to warrant that choice with the comprehensive evidence and thorough reasoning that, for lack of space and expertise, are not found here. That said, this pandiction does start with a prediction, and thereafter as well the line between speculation and expectation—the possible and the probable—will occasionally be crossed. In addition, by way of self-critique: my guessings and imaginings may overestimate the importance of China in ASEAN’s futures.

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June 2017
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Donald K. Emmerson
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In the days leading up to the Washington summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump, the tension in Seoul was hard to escape. Fears of an open clash between the two leaders, of a handshake that went on too long, or of a hostile early morning tweet directed at Moon were widespread. But when a senior national security advisor to Moon met a group of American visitors after the first day of talks, he was visibly relieved. The dinner between Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump went so well, he recounted with a slight smile, that it was extended 35 minutes.

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Toyo Keizai Online (Tokyo Business Today)
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Rising powers often seek to reshape the world order, triggering confrontations with those who seek to defend the status quo. In recent years, as international institutions have grown in prevalence and influence, they have increasingly become central arenas for international contestation. Phillip Y. Lipscy examines how international institutions evolve as countries seek to renegotiate the international order. He offers a new theory of institutional change and explains why some institutions change flexibly while others successfully resist or fall to the wayside. The book uses a wealth of empirical evidence - quantitative and qualitative - to evaluate the theory from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Union, League of Nations, United Nations, the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization, and Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers. The book will be of particular interest to scholars interested in the historical and contemporary diplomacy of the United States, Japan, and China.

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Cambridge University Press
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Phillip Lipscy
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