Democracy
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My argument in this paper is that the people of the People's Republic of China have acquired greater freedoms over the past twenty years, and that if China 's impressive rate of economic development continues,so will their liberties. In the fall of 1996, the journal The National Interest published an article of mine on the prospect for the growth of political and personal freedoms in China. This article contained a prediction that the organization Freedom House would rate China at least "Partly Free" by 2015, and offered evidence in support of that proposition. In the nearly five years since then, events have taken place, both favorable and unfavorable,that bear on my thesis.They are addressed in this text.There is also an analytical change: based on a recalculation, this article projects that China's GDP per capita will reach $7,500 by 2020 in 1998 international dollars. This leads to a revised forecast that Freedom House will rate China at least Partly Free by no later than 2020, rather than 2015 as proposed earlier. (It might appear that the date for China crossing the democracy threshold is slipping one year per year, but that results from the correction and not from a real change in China.) Of course,precision is not possible on such a topic,but the naming of a specific year has a logic and is useful for stimulating debate on a subject of the utmost importance. I do not argue that the path from here to there will be smooth politically,e ither domestically or internationally, but rather that the "end position " (that is, around 2020) will likely see a significant increase in political pluralism and personal liberties in China.

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Shorenstein APARC
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Henry S. Rowen
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Hailed by the New York Times as one of China's most influential intellectuals, Liu Junning is the founder and editor of the Journal Res Publica. Formerly a Fellow at the Institute of Political Science at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liu is responsible for the Chinese translation of numerous works on democracy and classic liberal thought. In 1999 his collected essays were published as Republic, Democracy, Constitutionalism. He holds a doctorate in political theory from Beijing University.

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Liu Junning Former Fellow Speaker Institute of Political Science, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Workshops
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In the space of ten short years, Germany and Japan have gone from paragons of economic success to models of political paralysis. In both countries, reformers call for a decisive move toward the liberal market model, yet find themselves frustrated with their governments' inability to act. This deadlock reflects the normal operation of German and Japanese democracy, and not its failure, for Germany and Japan are fundamentally divided over the merits of the proposed liberal reforms. As a result, Germany and Japan proceed with reforms slowly and cautiously, they package delicate compromises, and they design reforms to preserve the core institutions of their respective economic models as much as possible. Steven K. Vogel is Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley. He specializes in the political economy of the advanced industrialized nations, especially Japan. His book, Freer Markets, More Rules: Regulatory Reform in Advanced Industrial Countries (Cornell University Press, 1996), won the 1998 Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. He has written extensively on Japanese politics, industrial policy, trade and defense policy. He has taught previously at the University of California, Irvine and Harvard University. He has a B.A. from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in Political Science from UC Berkeley.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Third Floor

Steven Vogel Associate Professor Speaker Department of Political Science; University of California, Berkeley
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Like a double-edged sword, the recent conflict in East Timor challenged Indonesia and the international community alike. For Indonesia, the crisis and its resolution offered a chance for military reform, yet threatened national unity. For international donors, the chance to defend human rights and implement self-determination carried a risk of provoking nationalist resentment against foreign intervention for democratic change.This talk will focus on the international community and its donor countries and agencies. How did they react to the conflict in East Timor? What were their strategies? How did their actions affect Indonesia -- not only its East Timor policies but also the course of its own democratic transition? Looking back on them now, do the crisis and its outcome lessons for the feasibility of foreign intervention to achieve domestic political reform? If so, what are they? If not, why not? And what do the answers to these questions imply for the democratic prospect in developing countries more generally?

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Third Floor

Annette Clear PhD Candidate, Political Science, Columbia University; International Observer, East Timor Mission, Carter Center for Human Rights, 1999; Consultant, Project on Indonesia, SPICE, 2001 Speaker
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David W. Brady is a political scientist whose work encompasses American politics and legislative bodies, international political trends, and comparative politics. Brady holds the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy endowed chair at the Graduate School of Business and is a professor of political science in Stanford University's School of Humanities and Sciences. A dedicated and popular teacher, Professor Brady is a past recipient of Stanford's Phi Beta Kappa Distinguished Teacher Award, presented for his work with undergraduates, and of the Robert K. Jaedicke Silver Apple Award, presented by the Stanford Business School Alumni Association for his participation in alumni activities.

Brady recently served as an associate dean for academic affairs at the Business School and continues to serve as director of the School's programs in executive education. He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow by courtesy at the Institute for International Studies, both on campus. David is also co-director of the University's Social Science History Institute and associate director of the University's Public Policy Program. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and member of the advisory council for the Kansai Silicon Valley Venture Forum.

His publications include Change and Continuity in House Elections (eds. with J. Cogan), Stanford University Press (2000), Revolving Gridlock, Westview Press (1998); "Congress in the Era of the Permanent Campaign," Brookings Review, forthcoming 2000; "The Roots of Careerism in the U.S. House of Representatives," Legislative Studies Quarterly, (1999); "The SNTV and the Politics of Electoral Systems in Korea," in Electoral Systems in Asia (University of Michigan Press (1999); "Out of Step, Out of Office: Legislative Voting Behavior and House Election Outcomes," in Change and Continuity in House Elections, Stanford University Press (1999).

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David Brady Professor, Graduate School of Business and Political Science Speaker Stanford University
Seminars
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Since gaining its independence in 1965, the Republic of Singapore has attracted a level of scholarly and journalistic interest disproportionate to its tiny size. Singapore has defied categorization. Time and again it has seemed to swim against the tide of intellectual and ideological fashion. It practiced a market economy and free trade before these became the rage. It maintained one-party dominance long after pluralistic democracy became the global norm that it is today. Singapore's "uniquely anomalous status as the world's richest nondemocracy" (Larry Diamond) makes it a puzzling exception to the rule that economically advanced countries practice political pluralism. Most recently, financial and political turbulence elsewhere in East Asia have highlighted the extraordinary stability of the Singapore system. Has the ruling People's Action Party found the answer to successful governance in a global economy? Are the city-state's leaders forcibly postponing the inevitableÑperhaps even imminentÑonset of political liberalization? Or is there another way of resolving the "Singapore puzzle"? Chee Soon Juan joined the opposition Singapore Democratic Party in 1992. Three months later he was dismissed from his position as a lecturer at the National University of Singapore. His writings include To Be Free: Stories from Asia's Struggle against Oppression (1998) and Dare to Change: An Alternative Vision for Singapore (1994). Cherian George is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Communication at Stanford University. From 1990 to 1999 he worked as a journalist for Singapore's leading English-language newspaper, The Straits Times. He is a founding member of The Roundtable, a nonpartisan discussion group in Singapore.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Third Floor

Chee Soon Juan Secretary General Speaker Singapore Democratic Party
Cherian George Author Speaker Singapore: The Air-Conditioned Nation
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Since the 1960s, television has been a fixture of the Japanese household, and NHK's TV news has until very recently been the dominant, and most trusted, source of political information for the Japanese citizen. NHK's news style is distinctive among the broadcasting systems of industrialized countries; it emphasizes facts over interpretation and gives unusual priority to coverage of the national bureaucracy. In his talk, Krauss will argue that this approach is not simply a reflection of Japanese culture, but a result of the organization and processes of NHK and their relationship with the state. These factors had profound consequences for the state's postwar re-legitimization, while the commercial networks' recent challenge to NHK has helped engender the wave of cynicism currently faced by the state. Professor Krauss is a leading expert on Japanese Politics, U.S.-Japan relations, and Japan's political economy. He also is the director of the International Career Associates Program (ICAP) at IR/PS. His most recent book, Broadcasting Politics in Japan: NHK and Television News (Cornell University Press, 2000), discusses Japan's mammoth public broadcaster, and its relationship to and consequences for politics. He recently received a prestigious Abe Fellowship to conduct research on Japanese foreign policy decision making in APEC and its impact on U.S.-Japan relations. Krauss is co-editor of Media and Politics in Japan and has co-edited and written contributing articles for Democracy in Japan and Conflict in Japan. He wrote a monograph for the Foreign Policy Association, entitled Japan's Democracy: How Much Change? and has authored many articles in professional journals of political science and Asian studies.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Third Floor

Ellis Krauss Professor of Japanese Politics and Policymaking Speaker University of California, San Diego
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Transcript of an address given by Richard Bush, chairman of the board and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, on May 24, 2000. Also included in this volume is the transcript of a roundtable discussion which took place on April 14, 2000, on Taiwan's historic elections. Three distinguished speakers participated: Larry Diamond and Ramon H. Myers, both senior fellows at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, and Suisheng Zhao, Campbell National fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

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ISBN 1-931368-00-7
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This article explores an important but neglected topic in the literature on democratization in East Asia: the international dimension of democratization. It presents a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the impact of external political, economic and cultural factors on China, South Korea and Taiwan's political development since World War II. The author analyzes the circumstances under which the international context affects domestic actors' choice of political institutions and actions and concentrates on a selection of key international structures and actors that make up this complex picture. Shelley also examines the international political economy, aspects of the United Nations system, diffuse cultural factors and processes, democracy movements, and a number of international non-government organizations.

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Journal Articles
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China Quarterly
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Jean C. Oi

The Southeast Asia Forum (SEAF) supports an array of projects related to this dynamic part of the world, and is an important component of Stanford's burgeoning Asian studies program. Contemporary conditions and events are addressed in periodic seminars and occasional publications. Selected experts and practitioners regularly visit the Center under the auspices of the Forum.

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