Democracy
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Is unipolarity--American primacy--good or bad for the world? For Southeast Asia? For Indonesia? How dangerous or constructive is the Bush doctrine of preemption? Should the U.S. try to spread democracy abroad? If not, why not? If so, why and how--by example, persuasion, force? Has the war in Iraq squandered American "soft power"? How has that conflict affected the campaign against terrorism in Southeast Asia? Has the U.S. been ignoring the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)? Or has ASEAN become so irrelevant that it deserves to be ignored? In the run-up to Indonesia's presidential election in April 2004, should the U.S. support the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri? Or would that only strengthen her Islamist opponents by enabling them to portray her as an American pawn? What grade does the Bush administration's policy toward North Korea deserve? These are among the questions to be addressed in a wide-ranging evaluation of what the United States is doing, should be doing, and should not be doing in Asia.

Jusuf Wanandi has long been Indonesia's best-known analyst of Southeast Asian regionalism and the politics and foreign policies of Indonesia and the United States. He holds leadership positions in the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, the Prasetiya Mulya Graduate School of Management in Jakarta, and the Foundation of Panca Bhakti University in Pontianak (West Kalimantan). He heads the company that publishes Indonesia's leading English-language daily, The Jakarta Post. He co-founded Indonesia's most successful foreign-affairs think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. He has co-authored or co-edited more than a dozen books, including Europe and the Asia Pacific (1998), Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region (1993), and Asia and the Major Powers (1988).

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Jusuf Wanandi Senior Fellow Speaker Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta
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How is the American-led war in Iraq affecting Asian countries and their relations with the United States? Is a clash of civilizations underway? Will Islamist rage in Southeast Asia spawn terrorist attacks on Americans there? Will Islamist parties in Indonesia be able to ride this wave of anger into power in the elections to be held in April 2004? Will the regime in North Korea take advantage of American preoccupations in Iraq and Afghanistan to escalate tensions in Northeast Asia? How will the economies of Southeast and Northeast Asia be affected by the conflict in Iraq? Will Washington's priority on ousting Saddam Hussein undermine its effort to stabilize Afghanistan? And what will the repercussions in Asia be if, against the expectation of many observers, the Iraq war turns out to be short and the seeds of Iraqi democracy are successfully sown?

Founders Room, 5th floor
Public Policy Institute of California
500 Washington Street, San Francisco

Robert Scalapino Professor Emeritus Panelist Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley
Theordore Eliot, Jr. Dean Emeritus Panelist Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Greg Fealy Visiting Professor Panelist School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Workshops
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Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and pro-tracted debate over China?s application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China?s WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.

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Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and pro-tracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.

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C. Richard D'Amato is the vice chairman of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, a commission established by Congress to review the national security implications of U.S. trade relations with China. Formerly a delegate to the General Assembly of the State of Maryland, he is the president of a consulting firm that represents American corporations on strategic planning and international trade matters. He is also a retired captain in the United States Navy Reserve, a position that brought him a variety of assignments, including attache duty at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, on proliferation issues and military-to-military initiatives in March 1997; service in the Battle Group Command Staff of the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea during Operation Desert Shield; serving as an operations officer directing air drops into Bosnia and Sarajevo; and service on the planning staff of the newly created Asia-Pacific Center, which is a conference and study center under the commander of U.S. Forces for the Pacific, in Honolulu, Hawaii. Recently, Mr. D'Amato served as a member of the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission, a congressionally created commission charged with studying the nature, causes and consequences of the United States merchandise trade and current account deficits.

For ten years, beginning in 1988, Mr. D'Amato was the Democratic counsel for the Committee on Appropriations of the United States Senate. He was responsible for coordinating and managing the annual appropriations bills and other legislation on policy and funding of U.S. international operations and programs, including trade and defense and the full range of foreign activities of the U.S. government.

Mr. D'Amato has also served as senior foreign policy counsel for Senator Robert C. Byrd. In this capacity, Mr. D'Amato drafted the resolution that set Senate standards for international global climate change treaty negotiations. He also worked on a wide array of issues affecting U.S. international economic and political interests, including U.S.-Japan auto trade talks; World Trade Organization review legislation; U.S. involvement and funding of operations in Bosnia, Somalia, and Rwanda; and burden-sharing agreements during the Gulf War. Between 1980 and 1987, Mr. D'Amato served as the policy director for the Majority Leader, Senator Robert C. Byrd, for political, economic, and security policies. In this position, Mr. D'Amato supervised all work on a number of important legislative initiatives, including the 1988 Omnibus Trade Bill and the "Super 301" provision. Mr. D'Amato also wrote key legislation dealing with U.S.-Japan economic relations. During his career on Capitol Hill, Mr. D'Amato also served as the co-director of the Senate Arms Control Observer Group.

Mr. D'Amato began his career first as the legislative director for Congressman James Jeffords (R-VT) between 1975 and 1978, and beginning in 1978, as the legislative assistant and then chief of staff for Senator Abraham Ribicoff (D-CT) until 1980.

Mr. D'Amato has been very active in other aspects of public service, including an appointment as an assistant professor of government for the United States Naval Academy between 1968 and 1971, during which he was assistant varsity basketball coach and the sailing coach. He was responsible for the creation of an annual scholarship with the YWCA for college bound African American women and was the chairman of a local charitable hunger relief action organization in 1996, 1997, and 1998, which was a part of the nationwide "Share Our Strength" organization, the most successful hunger relief effort in the United States. In addition, he is active in the boating community in Annapolis, where he and his wife, Dorothy, have lived for thirty years.

Mr. D'Amato received his B.A. from Cornell University in 1964, graduating cum laude in government. He serves now on the Board of Trustees' Council for Cornell University. Mr. D'Amato received his M.A. and M.A.L.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Boston in 1967, and received his J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center in 1980.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

The Honorable C. Richard D'Amato Vice Chairman U.S.-China Security Review Commission
Seminars
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Elections in Thailand in January 2001 yielded a remarkable near-majority for the Thai Rak Thai ("Thai Love Thai") Party of computer and telecommunications billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who became prime minister despite serious legal charges of tax evasion. Although the Constitutional Court acquitted him (by a close 8-to-7 vote), his tenure in office has given rise to widespread impressions of populism on the one hand and corruption on the other.

In her talk, Dr. Phongpaichit will explore the background and implications of Thaksin's rise to power and his ongoing use of it. Pasuk Phongpaichit is Thailand's best known and most widely read economist. Books authored or coauthored by her include Corruption and Democracy in Thailand; Thailand: Economy and Politics; Thailand's Crisis; Thailand's Boom and Bust; The Thai Village Economy in the Past; Employment, Income and the Mobilization of Local Resources in Three Thai Villages; Challenging Social Exclusion: Rights and Livelihood in Thailand; Guns, Girls, Gambling, Ganja: Thailand's Illegal Economy and Public Policy; and From Peasant Girls to Bangkok Masseuses.

Her current research is on "The Structure and Dynamics of Capital in Post-Crisis Thailand." In fall 2002 she was a visiting professor at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Cambridge University.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Pasuk Phongpaichit Speaker
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This panel is open to the public and tea and cookies will be served. Please check back soon for more details.

Oksenberg Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, South Wing

Seminars
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Lunch served to those who respond to Okky Choi by Wednesday, February 26 by 12:00 noon. You can reach Okky at 650-724-8271 or via email at okkychoi@stanford.edu.

Philippines Conference Room, Third Floor, Encina Hall, Central Wing

Daniel Chirot Professor Speaker International Studies and Sociology, University of Washington
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Lunch served to those who respond to Okky Choi by Wednesday, January 14 by 12:00 noon. You can reach Okky at 650-724-8271 or via email at okkychoi@stanford.edu.

Philippines Conference Room

James Palais Professor Speaker Department of History, University of Washington
Seminars
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