In the years following the 2011 general election in Myanmar, there were reasons to think that the country might be growing more democratic, and that dialogue between rulers and ethnic minorities might alleviate the latter's long-standing rebellions against the state.  Instead, in 2021, a military coup ended democratic reform, triggered mass opposition, and plunged Myanmar back into civil war.  In ostensibly democratic Indonesia and the Philippines, on the other hand, rebellions respectively by the Moros and the Acehnese transitioned to peace.  Could one conclude, from this and other evidence, that autocracy engenders and prolongs ethnic civil war, and that, in contrast, democracy alleviates or even resolves it?  Jacques Bertrand, in two recent books (noted in his bio below), challenges the notion that democracy necessarily fosters peaceful outcomes.  He stresses the importance of interactive process between the state and its opponents and argues for a dynamic and contingent understanding of democracy’s impact. Although democratic institutions and negotiations can help to resolve deep and enduring conflicts, he concludes, they can also be used and have been used, mainly by the state, to manipulate and undermine insurgent ethnic minority groups.

Jacques Bertrand is a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, where he also directs the Collaborative Master’s Specialization in Contemporary East and Southeast Asian Studies at the Asian Institute in the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. He both founded and headed the institute’s Centre for Southeast Asian Studies and is a co-founder of the university’s Postcor Lab, a research hub for the study of civil wars and war-to-peace transitions.

Professor Bertrand has worked for many years on issues of ethnic conflict, nationalism, and secessionism in Southeast Asia.  His research has been funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the United States Institute of Peace, and the International Development Research Centre.  His latest book, just published in July 2022 and co-authored with Ardeth Thawnghmung and Alexandre Pelletier, is Winning by Process: The State and Neutralization of Ethnic Minorities in Myanmar. His sole-authored Democracy and Nationalist Struggles in Southeast Asia: From Secessionist Mobilization to Conflict Resolution appeared in 2021.

Discussant:

Scot Marciel is Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, affiliated with the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Previously, he was a 2020-22 Visiting Scholar and Visiting Practitioner Fellow on Southeast Asia at APARC.  A retired diplomat, Mr. Marciel served as U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar from March 2016 through May 2020, leading a mission of 500 employees during the difficult Rohingya crisis and a challenging time for both Myanmar’s democratic transition and the United States-Myanmar relationship.  Prior to serving in Myanmar, Ambassador Marciel served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department, where he oversaw U.S. relations with Southeast Asia.

What are Southeast Asia’s prospects?  How well equipped and prepared are its people to cope with current and future shocks from inside and outside their region?  With significant exceptions including the wars in Indochina after 1945 and the 1965-66 bloodshed in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s modern history since World War II has been relatively peaceful.  In recent times the region has had its share of turbulence.  Nevertheless, the multidimensional 2022 Global Peace Index ranks nine of the ten Southeast Asian states as more peaceful than the United States.  On the 2021 Democracy Index, four of the Southeast Asian ten are outright “authoritarian,” while the other six join the US in being “flawed democracies.”  What do these and related trends imply?  In addition to politics and geopolitics, visiting scholar Gita Wirjawan’s view of Southeast Asia’s future will touch upon socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental aspects as well.

Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian entrepreneur and philanthropist and a 2022-23 visiting scholar at APARC.  Having established a successful investment business in Indonesia, the Ancora Group, he created the Ancora Foundation.  The foundation has endowed scholarships for Indonesians to attend Stanford and other high-ranked universities around the world and has funded the training of teachers at hundreds of Indonesian kindergartens serving underprivileged children.  Wirjawan’s public service has included positions as Indonesia’s minister of trade, chairman of its Investment Coordinating Board, and chair of a 159-nation WTO ministerial conference in 2012 that focused on easing global trade barriers.  He led his country’s national badminton association in 2012-16 when Indonesia won four gold medals in the sport at world championships including the Olympics.  He advises Indonesia’s School of Government and Public Policy (SGPP) and Yale’s School of Management, among other institutions.  At SGPP he hosts a public-policy podcast called endgame, to which an estimated 471 thousand people subscribe.  His degrees are from the Harvard Kennedy School (MPA), Baylor University (MBA), and the University of Texas at Austin (BSc).

Register: bit.ly/3UHwDTF

Co-sponsored by Peking University and the Asia Health Policy Program

Time cost of healthcare is important but is largely overlooked in the literature. This paper investigates how time cost affects the healthcare usage in both China and the US. Using the retirement age policy in both countries, we first employ a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and show that the hospitalization rate persistently increases by 20-30 percent just after retirement age. The effects are larger and more significant among the people with higher time costs prior to retirement. Then, we use the school starting date and provide further significant evidence of the impact of time cost on hospitalization among the age-eligible children. These results underline the remarkable impact of time cost on healthcare usage and provide a more comprehensive picture of moral hazard in health insurance.

Dr HUANG Wei is an Associate Professor at the National School of Development (NSD), Peking University. Previously, he was an assistant professor at Emory University and National University of Singapore. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard in 2016. His research fields include public economics, labor economics, and health economics. His research work has been published in journals such as Review of Economic and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Nature, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Labor Economics, etc. He is a co-editor for Economics of Transition.

With a population of 1.4 billion people in the midst of industrialization and urbanization, the role of China in tackling climate change will be critical to the success of human species in facing up to the world's greatest existential challenge. Based on the newly published book -- Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in China: Policy, Technology and Market, FU Jun will discuss the parameters, policies and prospects of China's role in meeting the global crisis. In particular, in light of the country's regional heterogeneity and aided by simulation modeling, he will discern the philosophical nuances between particular justice and general justice in Chinese strategic thinking toward equitable, inclusive and sustainable growth, and focus on how different sets of technologies -- low carbon, zero carbon, negative carbon, as well as institutional technology -- will likely configure in an adaptive and dynamic fashion in China's pathways toward carbon peak prior to 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and with implications for green financing and international cooperation.

FU Jun is Professor of Political Economy and Public Policy at Peking University. He has authored, co-authored, and edited five books, including Institutions and Investments (Studies in International Economics, The University of Michigan Press), Pathways to Prosperity: A China Narrative in Metaheuristic Growth Theory (in Chinese, Peking University Press), and Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in China: Policy, Technology, and Market (Springer Nature). Graduated with Ph.D. from Harvard University, he is the first Chinese national to have been elected as Foreign Academician in 2020, together with Anthony Giddens and Jurgen Harbermas, by the Bologna Academy of Sciences in its time-honored history.  Inter alia, he has been an invited reviewer for PNAS, served on the 11-Member Visiting Committee for Area Studies and International Programs across Harvard University, and on the Advisory Board of Economia Politica. Outside academia, he has served as Member of the Listing Committee of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Executive Board Member of SOS Village (China), Vice Chair with A. Michael Spence as Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models, Board Member of Peking University Educational Foundation, and Advisor to the Chairman of the Executive Council of UNESCO.

This event is co-sponsored by Stanford Center at Peking University

Register: https://bit.ly/3Ncvj7B

AHPP “Aligning incentives” series final webinar: May 12th 6pm PDT, May 13th 9am in Hong Kong and Singapore

How has Myanmar’s health system dealt with the devastation caused by the coup and the pandemic, and what are the current opportunities and challenges for response and recovery? In this panel of two experts, Dr. Thin Zaw will first discuss how Myanmar’s health system and health workforce are endeavoring to respond to the syndemic crisis, a deadly combination of the global pandemic, the military coup, and post-coup civil conflicts. She will also discuss how stakeholders are working together to try to mitigate the crisis, and how a federal health system could be built up to align incentives for effective collaboration among ethnic health organizations. Second, Dr. Tun will provide a grassroots medical humanitarian perspective on what is happening in Myanmar. He will present results of a mixed-methods survey conducted in non-military-controlled areas from October to December 2021, discussing how Myanmar professionals including healthcare workers are spearheading the Civil Disobedience Movement, helping internally displaced people, and trying to address the healthcare needs of populations in conflict areas.

Phyu Phyu Thin Zaw (MBBS, MPP, PhD), who is a Burmese national, is a medical doctor, epidemiologist and health systems researcher currently working as a Lecturer in the School of Public Health in the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong. She is also a member of the Steering Committee of the Science in Exile initiative, which brings together at-risk, displaced and refugee scientists along with like-minded organizations who work together to strengthen systems that support, protect and integrate such affected scientists. Phyu Phyu’s research interests are equity, health and education policies, Southeast Asia health systems and policies, sexual and reproductive health, gender equality, poverty eradication, and human rights issues. Dr. Thin Zaw is also a public health and policy consultant giving technical advice to think tanks and non-governmental organizations.

Nay-Lin Tun (MD, MPP) is a medical doctor by training, and recently earned a Master in Public Policy from the National University of Singapore. He works as a program manager for a local organization that focuses on social cohesion and pluralism among diverse communities. In this role, he manages programs that help vulnerable communities in remote, hard-to-reach, and conflict-affected areas of Myanmar to get access to health services and provide financial assistance to injured civilians who need emergency referrals to private hospitals. Dr. Tun experienced a turning point in his career in 2017 when he went to the conflict-riven northern Rakhine areas. Witnessing people’s suffering and discrimination firsthand compelled him to initiate mobile health clinics and speak out in the media about health care challenges. On a voluntary basis, he is coordinating international donations and grants to field medical teams in conflict-affected areas of the country.

Myanmar’s junta is more than a year old.  The vast majority of the country’s people oppose the junta and favor democracy.  But the devil is in the details.  Many in the opposition want some form of multi-ethnic federal democracy.  But levels of disagreement and distrust among different communities, including some of the Ethnic Armed Groups, are impeding a unified vision to push the military out of power and establish civilian rule.  This webinar will examine the choices and challenges faced by the opponents of the regime as they try to unite these communities against it on behalf of a better future for Myanmar.

Nyantha Maw Lin is an independent analyst with more than a decade of interdisciplinary experience in government affairs, public policy, and political risk assessment related to Myanmar. Prior to the February 2021 coup, he supported community and stakeholder engagement efforts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State and served on a voluntary panel of industry and civil society representatives who advised the government on initiatives to fight corruption. He also helped to lead several innovative non-profit entities based in Yangon engaged in philanthropy, business, and social-impact activity. In addition to convening multi-sectoral dialogues with government, the private sector, and civil society in Myanmar, Nyantha has also participated in semi-official conversations elsewhere in Southeast Asia. A former Eisenhower Fellow (2018), he earned his BA in Political Science/International Relations from Carleton College (2008).  

Scot Marciel has had a long career as an American diplomat serving in multiple countries, most recently as US Ambassador to Myanmar (2016-2020).  Earlier postings included as Ambassador to Indonesia (2010-2013) and concurrently as Ambassador for ASEAN affairs and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Southeast Asia (2007-2010).  He has also served in the Philippines and Vietnam.  His assignments at the State Department in Washington DC have included as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of Southeast Asia.  Based on these experiences, he has been writing a book entitled “Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia.”  He earned his MA at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (1983) and his BA in International Relations at the University of California at Davis (1981).

The digital transformation of Southeast Asia is in full swing.  In 2021, 8 of the 10 ASEAN countries had internet penetration rates higher than those for Asia (64%) and the world (66%).  But digital access is unevenly distributed between and within Southeast Asian countries.  How are the new technologies impacting the region?  Are they helping civil society or the surveillance state—free speech and economic growth or unaccountable concentrations of power and wealth?  Are Huawei and the Digital Silk Road creating a future with Chinese characteristics?  Who will write the rules of the digital road?  How are specific countries coping?  What is ASEAN’s role?  What should the US do?  Two leading experts, Huong Le Thu and Elina Noor, will discuss these and related questions.

Huong Le Thu is a co-author of Digital Southeast Asia, a just-published policy-focused study of the webinar topic.  A prolific and influential policy analyst of security and diplomacy in the region, she has written widely in journals and global media and for international think tanks including, as a non-resident fellow, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Wash., DC).  She has held positions at the Australian National University, the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, and the Institute of International Relations in Taipei. Her alma maters include National Chengchi University (Taiwan, PhD) and Jagiellonian University (Poland, Master’s).  She speaks five languages and has published in four.

Elina Noor has just launched a podcast, “Between the Binary: Tech and the Global South.”  It assesses technology’s intersections with history, gender, power, and economic growth through the underheard voices of guests from developing countries.  Cybersecurity has figured prominently in her many publications on Southeast Asia.  She is a member of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace and has held key positions at the Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (Hawaii), the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (Malaysia), and the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP). Her higher degrees are from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LLM) and Georgetown University (MA).

This event is part of the 2022 Winter webinar series, New Frontiers: Technology, Politics, and Society in the Asia-Pacific, sponsored by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Bhutan time: Friday, February 4th, 2022, 8am to 9am.

Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) 2021-22 Colloquium series "Aligning Incentives for Better Health and More Resilient Health Systems in Asia”

The Minister of Health of Bhutan, Her Excellency Dasho Dechen Wangmo, will share her insights and experiences from managing the national health system during the COVID-19 crisis, serving as President of the 74th World Health Assembly, and her views on health system strengthening, innovative primary care, chronic disease control, health governance, and the global implications of the pandemic as it unfolds in its third year.

Her Excellency Dasho Dechen Wangmo, the only female Minister in the current cabinet of Bhutan, formally took charge of the Ministry of Health on 7th November 2018. Prior to joining politic in 2018, Her Excellency worked as a public health international consultant with primary focus on health systems, governance, policy and strategic planning for governments and civil societies in many countries (USA, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, PNG, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Senegal). She brings her background working on various global health issues including health system strengthening, health governance, grant implementation, monitoring and evaluation system to the current portfolio.

On 17th December 2020 in recognition of her outstanding service to the Nation, she was conferred the “Red Scarf”, one of highest honors a Bhutanese civilian can receive, by His Majesty the King. Her Excellency is a passionate public health advocate and social worker at heart. Hon’ble Lyonpo was nominated as the President of the 74th World Health Assembly (WHA) by Member States of the WHO’s South East Asia Region in 2020. She will hold the office of the President for a duration of one year and it is an honour bestowed on Bhutan for the first time since it became a member of the WHO in 1982.

In addition to her memberships in professional organizations, she is also a founder of the Bhutan Cancer Society, a CSO working for the well being of cancer patients in Bhutan, and a founding chairperson for Lhaksam, the HIV-positive network in the country. Her Excellency has a Master in Public Health (MPH) from Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, USA, and a Bachelor in Cardiopulmonary Science (magna cum laude) from Northeastern University, Boston, USA.