International Development

FSI researchers consider international development from a variety of angles. They analyze ideas such as how public action and good governance are cornerstones of economic prosperity in Mexico and how investments in high school education will improve China’s economy.

They are looking at novel technological interventions to improve rural livelihoods, like the development implications of solar power-generated crop growing in Northern Benin.

FSI academics also assess which political processes yield better access to public services, particularly in developing countries. With a focus on health care, researchers have studied the political incentives to embrace UNICEF’s child survival efforts and how a well-run anti-alcohol policy in Russia affected mortality rates.

FSI’s work on international development also includes training the next generation of leaders through pre- and post-doctoral fellowships as well as the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program.

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China's population of 1.34 billion is now 50 percent urban, over 13 percent above age 60, and with 118 boys born for every 100 girls. For such a large population at a relatively low level of per capita income, how will aging interact with substantial gender imbalance and rapid urbanization?

Will Demographic Change Slow China’s Rise? In the eponymous article recently published in the Journal of Asia Studies, five Stanford scholars of political science, sociology, and economics based at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center — Karen Eggleston, Jean C. Oi, Scott Rozelle, Andrew Walder, and Xueguang Zhou, with a former postdoctoral fellow Ang Sun — discuss how the intertwined demographic changes pose an unprecedented challenge to social and economic governance, contributing to and magnifying the effects of a slower rate of economic growth.

The authors touch upon a wide range of topics of policy import:
· China must overhaul rural education quickly if it is going to avoid producing tens of millions of workers who will be marginalized in the nation's future high-wage, high-skill economy.
· Growth slowdowns are almost always productivity growth slowdowns. Many forces impinge on multi-factor productivity; the stability and predictability of markets and governance are lynchpins. Discontent with widening disparities in China could undermine this fundamental foundation of growth.
· Demographic change will fundamentally challenge the conventional governance structures in China. Efforts to impose a bureaucratic solution to the intertwined social challenges China faces will almost inevitably stoke tensions between the society and the state. In both urban and rural areas, expansion of the bureaucratic state may become the central target of popular contention.
· China's high savings rate is partly explained by low fertility and parents' need to save for their own old-age support. Initiation of rural pensions and significant expansion of health insurance coverage and are examples of the social policy responses that China has undertaken to prepare for “growing old before becoming rich.” But much remains to be done.
· China's increasing burden of chronic disease further exacerbates the growth-slowing potential of a more elderly population and its associated medical expenditure burden.
· Although reducing precautionary savings and increasing domestic consumption as an engine of economic growth are widely acknowledged goals for China's economy, a rapid decline in savings could also imperil China's future economic growth by jeopardizing the current basis of the financial system.
· Demographic change will shape almost every aspect of how China copes with a slowing rate of economic growth, and may play a decisive role in the future social stability of China, with spillover effects for the region and the rest of the world.
The research is one product of a 3-year project analyzing Asian demographic change which will conclude in 2014 with a conference and edited book on demographic change and urbanization in China, in comparative international perspective.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
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The Journal of Asian Studies
Authors
Karen Eggleston
Jean C. Oi
Scott Rozelle
Andrew G. Walder
Xueguang Zhou
Ang Sun

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-0051 (650) 723-6530
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2013 Visiting Scholar
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Dong Sung Kim, a lawyer, is a 2013 visiting scholar in the Korean Studies Program. Mr. Kim, former member of the National Assembly in South Korea, served in the national defense committee of the Assembly.

Mr. Kim was an adjunct professor at the Graduate School of Public Administration and Local Autonomy, Hanyang University, 2010–2011. He began his career in law as judge in the district of Incheon in 2000.

Mr. Kim holds a BA in Law from Seoul National University and an MA in Business Administration from Yonsei University, Korea.

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-0051 (650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar
HAN,_Chungpung_3x4.jpg MA, PhD

Chunping Han is currently a visiting assistant professor at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, she was an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Texas at Arlington.

Her research interests include perceptions of inequality, subjective well-being, and health in the context of immense social changes. During her time at Shorenstein APARC, she will study how ordinary people define, describe, and explain the sources of life satisfaction, happiness, and psychological distress in transitional China based on in-depth interviews.

Han participated in two national surveys on popular attitudes toward inequality and distributional issues in China. She has also published journal articles and a book chapter on distributive injustice feelings, redistribution attitudes, and livelihood satisfaction in contemporary China.

Han earned her PhD in sociology from Harvard University and her MA in education from Stanford University. She also received an MA from Beijing Foreign Studies University and a BA from Fudan University, China.

Authors
Takeo Hoshi
News Type
Commentary
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Policies seeking to end deflation, the most pressing issue for the Japanese economy, have been put into effect. In this issue of the NIRA Policy Review, Takeo Hoshi points out that deflation is a monetary phenomenon, and as such is a problem which can be solved by monetary policy.

Policies seeking to end deflation, the most pressing issue for the Japanese economy, have been put into effect.  In this issue of the NIRA Policy Review, Takeo Hoshi points out that deflation is a monetary phenomenon, and as such is a problem which can be solved by monetary policy.

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From his journalistic point of view, Jaekwon Son will discuss competitiveness and weaknesses of Samsung and Psy that have recently made top news stories.

Son is a 2012-2013 visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Son, a reporter at the Maeil Business Newspaper in Korea, conducts research on the impact of new media journalism, such as social networking through smart devices. He has co-authored several books including The Appstore Economics (2010), Mobile Changes the World (2010), and The Naver Republic (2007). He has been awarded Jounalist of the Month from the Korea Jounalist Association (2012) and Jounalist of the Year from the Hanvit Culture Foundation (2008).

Son holds a BA in classical Chinese from Korea University.

 

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Jaekwon Son 2012-2013 Visiting Scholar, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Speaker
Conferences
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South Korea's Manchurian action films have recently received critical interest for the genre’s unique configuration of such themes as colonial history, nationalism, masculinity, geography and generic hybridity.  This presentation revisits the genre with a different thematic focus and question: the political economy of anti-colonial nationalism.  More specifically, it brings attention to the logic of money inherent in the genre and explores the broad implications of this thematic convention.  Contrary to the genre’s lofty political agenda, Manchurian action films collectively render the unsettling and scandalous trappings of anti-colonial nationalism of South Korea. 

Philippines Conference Room

An Jinsoo Assistant Professor, Korean Studies, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures, University of California at Berkeley Speaker
Lectures
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The structure of the Chinese economy changed dramatically between 2005 and 2009.  It changed from an export-investment leading economy to a domestic-demand leading economy.  Before 2004 China was a huge factory because of its cheap and abundant labor.  After 2010 it has become a huge market because of the rapid increase of their income level.

Not only the rapid growth of China’s GDP, but the rapid increase of the number of middle-class-income people in China whose GDP per capita surpass 10 thousand USD gave Japanese companies many business chances since 2010. Even under the worst political condition between Japan and China after Senkaku territorial dispute most of Japanese companies keep increasing their investment in China because Chinese local governments are so eager to invite the investment of Japanese companies. If Japan and China can realize the normalization of Sino-Japan relations, their win-win relationship should be accelerated.

The Xi Jinping’s administration started officially in March. Chinese ordinary people’s complaint against the Chinese government seems very strong mainly because the former administration put off the resolution of many important problems including the corruption of governmental officials, environmental deterioration, economic inequality. Xi Jinping’s administration should work on these difficult problems. In such a situation it is important for China to normalize Sino-Japan relations to enhance the economic stability.

 

Kiyoyuki Seguchi is the Research Director of the Canon Institute for the Global Studies. His research focuses on the Chinese economy and relations between the United States, China and Japan. He worked for the Bank of Japan from 1982 to 2009. He was the Chief Representative of the Representative Office of BOJ in Beijing from 2006 to 2008, the international visiting fellow at RAND Corporation (Los Angeles, CA) from 2004 to 2005. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo.

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Kiyoyuki Seguchi Research Director Speaker Canon Institute for the Global Studies
Seminars
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News
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Jean C. Oi was appointed to the Academic Advisory Council of the newly founded Schwarzman Scholars international scholarship program.

Oi, a political economist specializing in contemporary China, is director of the Stanford China Program, the William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. She also serves as the Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

The Schwarzman Scholars Program will annually support 200 students, from the United States and other countries, for a one-year master’s program at the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing. American financier Stephen A. Schwarzman endowed the program, which is slated to launch in 2016. FSI senior fellow and former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice will also serve as an honorary member of the program’s Advisory Board.

“Knowledge about China is essential for the 21st century,” Oi said. “The Schwarzman Scholars Program promises to provide a much needed opportunity to bring together top graduates from around the world to gain a first-hand understanding of China’s society, economy, and politics. It is difficult to overstate the importance of such learning and friendships that will form among those who will include future leaders of the world.”

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Stanford China Program director Jean Oi.
Rod Searcey
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China has surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy in the world, and is able to strongly impact the global economy, politics and society.  But can China sustain and maintain relatively high economy growth in the future?  Can China surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world?  Will the "China Growth Model" change?  These questions are now of great concern to the world.  Being a member of the management team of China's leading investment bank for ten years, Tatsuhito Tokuchi will speak on these themes from his China insider point of view.  He will also touch upon the future prospect of the China-Japan relationship and Chinese foreign diplomatic policy, which are the questions that people in neighboring countries are very much concerend about. 


Tatsuhito (Ted) Tokuchi is a Managing Director of CITIC Securities, the largest investment banking in China, and Chairman of CITIC Securities International, a subsidiary of CITICS in Hong Kong.  He is known as an only executive of a native of Japan for large indigenous Chinese companies.  Tokuchi was born in Tokyo in 1952.  In 1964, he went to Beijing with his parents, and there he spent thirteen years of his youth.  Tokuchi joined Daiwa Securities Comapny in 1980 in Japan, and during his twenty-year career at Daiwa, he engaged in investment banking and management of teams in Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing.  In 2002, he joined CITIC Securities Company as a head of the investment banking division.  Tokuchi received a B.A. in Chinese Literature from Beijing University in 1976, and an M.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University in 1985.

Philippines Conference Room

Tatsuhito Tokuchi Managing Director of CITIC Securities in China, Chairman of CITIC Securities International in Hong Kong Speaker
Seminars
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