Stanford University

Foreign Policy

Dangling by a Thread: Southeast Asia Since the End of Apparel Export Quotas

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Apparel export quotas that defined the worldwide garment trade for four decades ended on 1 January 2005. Trade data since then suggest that production has shifted from Southeast Asia to China. For the most developed countries in Southeast Asia, the loss of the garment industry will be a tolerable inconvenience. But it will devastate countries whose economies depend on such exports. An extreme example is Cambodia, three-fourths of whose exports are apparel. Are the threads from which these poor economies hang about to break? Is this industrys migration out of Southeast Asia inevitable and irrevocable? What, if anything, can governments and companies in the region do?

Geoffrey Stafford earned his PhD in political science (1998) and an MA in Southeast Asian studies (1996) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. After completing his dissertation, Globalization Amid Diversity: Economic Development Policy in Multi-Ethnic Malaysia 1987-1997, he joined a large retailer to work on issues of corporate social responsibility in the global garment-manufacturing arena. In that capacity he is now analyzing the effects of quota termination on the world apparel industry. He has taught the politics of Southeast Asia at the University of San Francisco.

Okimoto Conference Room

Geoffrey Stafford Political scientist and global procurement strategist in the apparel industry
Seminars
Southeast Asia Program

Will the Real ASEAN Please Stand Up? Security, Community, and Democracy in Southeast Asia

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In 2007 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be forty years old. Yet the most basic questions about it remain controversial. What exactly is it? An organization? A discourse? A regime? A concert? A community? A facade? None, one, some, or all of the above? Has it succeeded? Has it failed? Both? To what extent? How? Why? In the context of these uncertainties, this talk will explore three topics: (1) the controversy over whether ASEAN is, or is not, a "security community"; (2) the incompatibility of member sovereignty versus member democracy as principles of ASEAN cooperation; and (3) the implications of (1) and (2) for US-ASEAN relations. The talk will draw mainly on two sources: a paper that can be downloaded; and a March 2005 research-and-conferencing trip to Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Donald K. Emmerson

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Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Affiliated Faculty, CDDRL
Affiliated Scholar, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies
aparc_dke.jpg PhD

At Stanford, in addition to his work for the Southeast Asia Program and his affiliations with CDDRL and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Donald Emmerson has taught courses on Southeast Asia in East Asian Studies, International Policy Studies, and Political Science. He is active as an analyst of current policy issues involving Asia. In 2010 the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars awarded him a two-year Research Associateship given to “top scholars from across the United States” who “have successfully bridged the gap between the academy and policy.”

Emmerson’s research interests include Southeast Asia-China-US relations, the South China Sea, and the future of ASEAN. His publications, authored or edited, span more than a dozen books and monographs and some 200 articles, chapters, and shorter pieces.  Recent writings include The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century (ed., 2020); “‘No Sole Control’ in the South China Sea,” in Asia Policy  (2019); ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done? (ed., 2018); “Singapore and Goliath?,” in Journal of Democracy (2018); “Mapping ASEAN’s Futures,” in Contemporary Southeast Asia (2017); and “ASEAN Between China and America: Is It Time to Try Horsing the Cow?,” in Trans-Regional and –National Studies of Southeast Asia (2017).

Earlier work includes “Sunnylands or Rancho Mirage? ASEAN and the South China Sea,” in YaleGlobal (2016); “The Spectrum of Comparisons: A Discussion,” in Pacific Affairs (2014); “Facts, Minds, and Formats: Scholarship and Political Change in Indonesia” in Indonesian Studies: The State of the Field (2013); “Is Indonesia Rising? It Depends” in Indonesia Rising (2012); “Southeast Asia: Minding the Gap between Democracy and Governance,” in Journal of Democracy (April 2012); “The Problem and Promise of Focality in World Affairs,” in Strategic Review (August 2011); An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and Its Reasons (2011); Asian Regionalism and US Policy: The Case for Creative Adaptation (2010); “The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism’” and “Islamism: Pros, Cons, and Contexts” in Islamism: Conflicting Perspectives on Political Islam (2009); “Crisis and Consensus: America and ASEAN in a New Global Context” in Refreshing U.S.-Thai Relations (2009); and Hard Choices: Security, Democracy, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia (edited, 2008).

Prior to moving to Stanford in 1999, Emmerson was a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he won a campus-wide teaching award. That same year he helped monitor voting in Indonesia and East Timor for the National Democratic Institute and the Carter Center. In the course of his career, he has taken part in numerous policy-related working groups focused on topics related to Southeast Asia; has testified before House and Senate committees on Asian affairs; and been a regular at gatherings such as the Asia Pacific Roundtable (Kuala Lumpur), the Bali Democracy Forum (Nusa Dua), and the Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore). Places where he has held various visiting fellowships, including the Institute for Advanced Study and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 



Emmerson has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale and a BA in international affairs from Princeton. He is fluent in Indonesian, was fluent in French, and has lectured and written in both languages. He has lesser competence in Dutch, Javanese, and Russian. A former slam poet in English, he enjoys the spoken word and reads occasionally under a nom de plume with the Not Yet Dead Poets Society in Redwood City, CA. He and his wife Carolyn met in high school in Lebanon. They have two children. He was born in Tokyo, the son of U.S. Foreign Service Officer John K. Emmerson, who wrote the Japanese Thread among other books.

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Southeast Asia Program

Reflections on the meaning of cultural globalization

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Korea, where ancient East Asian civilization and modern Western civilization interact and conflicting political ideologies, economic systems, and social practices collide, presents a particularly interesting case of the phenomenology of the consequences of cultural conflict involving the problems of detraditionalization, cultural hybridization, and the discontinuous nature of globalization. How do traditional religious beliefs and practices survive in modern Korean society and how do they interact with modern values and lifestyles derived from the West,particularly the United States?

What happens to a society when a cultural tradition that has valued the Confucian virtues of frugality, temperance, service to the family and local community, and natural, segmented human relations regulated by a communal sense of propriety and order transforms into one in which individualism, hedonism, utilitarian egotism, and the unbridled pursuit of material achievements predominate? What should replace or supplement eroding traditional values? Attempting to answer these questions requires us to seriously reflect on the relation of traditional moral culture to the contemporary situation in Korea.

Dr. Chung has taught at a number of institutions,including Boston University's College of General Studies and in the Department of Sociology and the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul.

He has published widely in both Korean and English,on social and ethical problems arising from East Asia's modern transformation. Dr. Chung has incorporated into his teaching and research the religious and social ethical problems involving globalization and encounters between civilizations with particular attention to Korea, East Asian religious traditions,and Christianity.

Buffet lunch will be provided to those who RSVP to Jasmin Ha at jaha@stanford.edu by Tuesday, May 10.

Philippines Conference Room

Chai-sik Chung Boston University
Seminars

Was Globalization At Work?: Realigning the Economic Bureaucracy and the Korean State in Transition

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One of the most important scholarly issues in political economy during the last decade has been economic globalization.

A powerful case for the penetrating power of globalization on the nation states was the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which drove South Korea, once an exemplary success case of state-led economic development, to the brink of national bankruptcy.

The economic crisis and the following structural reform process of South Korea seem to clearly demonstrate the limit of state-centric developmental model and the converging effect of neoliberal capitalism even on a nonliberal state-led economy.

While recent scholarly discussions on the "globalization and the state" thesis have mostly focused on changes in the non-state actors or the state-market relationship, Ms. Jung draws our attention to the transformation of the state bureaucratic institutions.

In her talk, she uses South Korea as a critical case and traces the dramatic institutional changes of the Economic Planning Board (EPB) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) between 1994 and 1999. Ms. Jung unpacks the black box of why and how specific decisions on key bureaucratic institutional changes were made in Korea, tests how globalization affected the transformation process, and then analyzes the consequences of such changes for the role and authority of the South Korean state in economic development and reform.

Buffet lunch will be provided to those who RSVP to Jasmin Ha at jaha@stanford.edu by Tuesday, April 12.

Philippines Conference Room

Joo-Youn Jung PhD Candidate Stanford University
Seminars

Prospects for Peace in South Asia

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The panelists will discuss the history and future of India-Pakistan relations, focusing on the most persistent conflict between the two neighboring countries, Kashmir. Since 1947 both countries have defied numerous international attempts at resolution and in 1998 entered its most dangerous phase when both India and Pakistan became nuclear powers.

Rafiq Dossani, senior research scholar at Shorenstein APARC, is responsible for developing and directing the South Asia Initiative. Dossani earlier worked for the Robert Fleming Investment Banking group, first as CEO of its India operations and later as head of its San Francisco operations. He has also been the Chairman and CEO of a stockbroking firm on the OTCEI exchange in India, the Deputy Editor of Business India Weekly, and a professor of finance at Pennsylvania State University. His most recent book is Telecommunications Reform in India, published in spring 2002 by Greenwood Press.

Dossani holds a B.A. in economics from St. Stephen's College, New Delhi, India; an M.B.A. from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India; and a Ph.D. in finance from Northwestern University. He is currently undertaking projects on business process outsourcing (with the support of the Sloan Foundation), innovation and entrepreneurship in information technology in India, the institutional phasing-in of power-sector reform in Andhra Pradesh, and security in the Indian subcontinent.

Henry S. Rowen, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, is Professor Emeritus of Public Policy and Management at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business and a member of Stanford's Asia/Pacific Research Center. He was Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also Chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as President of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972 and was assistant director, U.S. Bureau of the Budget, from 1965 to 1966. He is a member of the Defense Department's Policy Board.

Rowen is an expert on international security, economic development, Asian economics and politics, as well as U.S. institutions and economic performance. His current research focuses on economic growth prospects for the developing world, political and economic change in East Asia, and the tenets of federalism.

This is the first lecture in ICC's CURRENT AFFAIRS series presented in collaboration with Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley.

India Community Center
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Rafiq Dossani

No longer in residence.

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R_Dossani_headshot.jpg PhD

Rafiq Dossani was a senior research scholar at Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) and erstwhile director of the Stanford Center for South Asia. His research interests include South Asian security, government, higher education, technology, and business.  

Dossani’s most recent book is Knowledge Perspectives of New Product Development, co-edited with D. Assimakopoulos and E. Carayannis, published in 2011 by Springer. His earlier books include Does South Asia Exist?, published in 2010 by Shorenstein APARC; India Arriving, published in 2007 by AMACOM Books/American Management Association (reprinted in India in 2008 by McGraw-Hill, and in China in 2009 by Oriental Publishing House); Prospects for Peace in South Asia, co-edited with Henry Rowen, published in 2005 by Stanford University Press; and Telecommunications Reform in India, published in 2002 by Greenwood Press. One book is under preparation: Higher Education in the BRIC Countries, co-authored with Martin Carnoy and others, to be published in 2012.

Dossani currently chairs FOCUS USA, a non-profit organization that supports emergency relief in the developing world. Between 2004 and 2010, he was a trustee of Hidden Villa, a non-profit educational organization in the Bay Area. He also serves on the board of the Industry Studies Association, and is chair of the Industry Studies Association Annual Conference for 2010–12.

Earlier, Dossani worked for the Robert Fleming Investment Banking group, first as CEO of its India operations and later as head of its San Francisco operations. He also previously served as the chairman and CEO of a stockbroking firm on the OTCEI stock exchange in India, as the deputy editor of Business India Weekly, and as a professor of finance at Pennsylvania State University.

Dossani holds a BA in economics from St. Stephen's College, New Delhi, India; an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India; and a PhD in finance from Northwestern University.

Senior Research Scholar
Executive Director, South Asia Initiative
Rafiq Dossani

Henry S. Rowen

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FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Henry S. Rowen
Lectures

Victoria Wu

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9741 (650) 723-6530
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SPRIE Graduate Research Fellow
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Victoria Wu is a second year masters student in management science and engineering at Stanford University. Her professional experience includes work as a local TV broadcaster and science news journalist, assistant project manager at Genentech, and consultant in international investment and the video game industry. Topics of past research include business resource allocation, semiconductor materials, and high technology market investment in China. Raised in Anhui, China, she received a BS in Chemistry from the University of Science and Technology of China. Victoria has served as president of the Stanford Chapter of the International Society for Life Science Professionals.

Indian Federalism and the Conduct of Foreign Policy in Border States: State Participation and Central Accommodation

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The role of subnational units (states, provinces, cantons, Lander) in international affairs is a growing subject in the literature on federalist affairs. Scholars of political science have traditionally seen the conduct of foreign policy as the exclusive domain of the national government. This would seem an especially apt observation about India's federalist system. The Indian constitution has given the center particularly strong powers -- so strong, in fact, that some have described it as "quasi federal" because of the lack of autonomy it affords to the states. Yet, there is an increasing consensus that the states have not been shy of foreign policy advocacy. Some have argued that the era of coalition governance has increased such advocacy and, potentially, influence, especially in the context of globalization and economic reform and liberalization.

This paper considers the role of Indian border states in the conduct of foreign policy toward their transnational neighbors and asks whether coalition governance results in more power generally or to some state actors more than others. In particular, we explore whether the effectiveness of a state's foreign policy advocacy depends on that state's position in the coalition. Effectiveness may also be influenced by the type of advocacy -- on ethnic issues, for example, as opposed to economic ones -- and by constitutional limits.

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Rafiq Dossani

America and the New Asia

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Zbigniew Brzezinski has had a distinguished career in government and academia. From 1977 to 1981 he was the National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981 he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in the normalization of U.S.-Chinese relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He is currently the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.

The Oksenberg Lecture honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001) longtime member of Shorenstein APARC, senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for International Studies, and an authority on China. Professor Oksenberg was consistently outspoken about the need for the United States to engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

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The Honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski Former National Security Adviser and Professor, American Foreign Policy Johns Hopkins University
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Walter H. Shorenstein Forum for Asia Pacific Studies
Oksenberg Conference

Industry and academic R&D leaders consider the globalization of R&D in Asia in SPRIE-sponsored panel

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In light of the rise of Asia in research and development (R&D) and the challenge it poses on American supremacy, SPRIE invited industry and academic R&D leaders for a panel discussion entitled "The Globalization of R&D" on February 10, 2005. The panel included Dr. John Seely Brown, visiting scholar, Annenberg Center, USC; Dr. Kris Halvorsen, vice president and director, Solutions and Services Research Center, Hewlett-Packard; and Dr. Yoshio Nishi, director of research at the Center for Integrated Systems, director of Stanford Nanofabrication Facility, National Nanotechnology Infrastructure Network. Participants discussed a wide array of issues, including the economic rationale for new models of R&D, national/regional comparative advantage in R&D, and the coordination of global R&D.

The Economic Rationale for New Models of R&D

Dr. Nishi highlighted the economic rationale behind the quest for new models of R&D. While back in the early 1990s, a $200 million investment in R&D would grant a semiconductor company a one-year lead in technology, by the early 2000s, a one-year lag would transpire with the same investment level. Such an escalation of R&D cost points to the mounting importance of the efficiency of R&D--or as Dr. Nishi put it, the importance of generating "the right technology at the right time for the right cost." The economic forces will not only alter how R&D activities are organized and distributed within and across firms, markets, regions, and countries but also influence the breadth and depth of knowledge searches. For example, R&D alliance might become a viable and lucrative scheme for cost/risk sharing in R&D. The search for non-silicon-based devices might rise in importance as silicon fabrication reaches its limits. By the same token, the division of innovative labor across nations/regions might deepen to further exploit respective comparative advantages.

Regional Comparative Advantage in R&D

One strand of development is the globalization of R&D, which necessitates comparative advantages across regions. Dr. Brown maintained, "I'm moving my analysis from individual firms to [regional] 'niches.' What I see happening is that thousands of [regional] niches are developing all over the place. What's interesting is how dynamic these niches are in building their unique capabilities." The availability of innovative talents, for example, varies significantly across regions. Invoking "the law of large numbers," Dr. Brown pointed out that given its enormous population size, Asia could produce a large number of engineers, even if they are only a tiny fraction of the total population. Currently, the U.S. produces 50,000 engineers every year; the number is 500,000 for Asia--and it is rapidly growing. Meanwhile, more and more immigrant talents choose to return to their home countries after receiving higher education and some work experience in the U.S. Few U.S. companies can afford to ignore such alarming trends. "We need to move with the market for talent," commented Dr. Halvorsen who overseas HP's global R&D activities. Take HP's R&D effort in Bangalore, India as an example. The effort had a humble start in the mid-1980s. Yet, within ten years, the number of local technical staff grew to 3,000. Today, the number is approaching 10,000.

Market-specific demand also pushes R&D to relocate. As Dr. Halvorsen put it, "when success depends on [geographical] closeness, … you need to do design in close loop with the rest of the activities." Furthermore, overseas R&D might well find its way back into the U.S. As explained by Dr. Brown, "The rise of the middle class in China and India at 1/10 of the price point [of the U.S.]" could spur innovations at 1/10 of the price point. Innovations taking place in China or India might be totally unheard of in the U.S. and eventually finds its way into the U.S. market.

The Coordination of Global R&D

While the globalization of R&D brings many promises, it also poses acute challenges to firms that need to coordinate R&D efforts across national boundaries. As Professor William Miller pointed out, "Increase in R&D cost forces specialization. Then you have to put together an assembly of specialists. The problem is that they are everywhere. Therefore, being able to pull them together becomes the differentiator." The story of Li & Fung serves as a perfect example. Li & Fung is a global leader in the apparel business. In 2002, the company contracted with 7,500 factories in 37 countries and generated a revenue of $5 billion. In an industry with thin margins of a few percent, the company continues to uphold a return-on-equity of 30-50%. Yet, Li & Fung owns no factories. Its competitive advantage lies entirely in its expertise in assessing and orchestrating the unique capabilities of each of the 7,500 suppliers. As Dr. Brown summed up, "Making money will depend less on what you own than on what you can mobilize--[i.e. the ability to] orchestrate."

In a parallel argument, Dr. Halvorsen proposed the new model of "meta-national" R&D. Different from the traditional multinational setup, where R&D is orchestrated from the center and diffused to the peripheral, in a meta-national setup, innovation for different parts of the system are consciously placed in different parts of the world. Advances are made in parallel and feedbacks flow bi-directionally.

An even more decentralized model was advanced by Dr. Brown. Dubbed a "swarm ecosystem," such a system is characterized by one (or more) assemblers and hyper-competition among a constellation of component suppliers. The assembler merely provides the focal model with no detailed design, and leaves it to the component suppliers to compete for coming up with the best fit. In this model, the assembler does not orchestrate the development process from top-down; rather, progress is made from the bottom-up. Yet, at the end of the day, only the fittest component suppliers survive and the result is a highly efficient and competitive system that best exploits its own niches.

Other Issues

Panelists and the audience also engaged in lively discussions about intellectual property rights, organizational learning, institutional innovations, the role of public policy, and the impact of culture on innovation. The globalization of R&D--particularly rising competencies in Greater China and their network of relations to Silicon Valley and their worldwide implications--is a new priority area of research for SPRIE.

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