At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign- and defense- policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China’s national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.

China’s concerns about the intention, scope, and capability of the alliances are set against a backdrop of several major changes in the region: the end of the Cold War, the simultaneous rise of China and Japan, the post-revolution reforms of Asian communist regimes, and the United States as the sole superpower. China’s uneasiness about the U.S.-led alliances goes far beyond the systemic change in the post–Cold War world, however. Its roots lie in China’s inherent weakness in the games of major powers in East Asia and in relations with other major powers in the first half of the twentieth century.

This paper begins with an overview of the interactions between China and the U.S.-led alliances in East Asia during the Cold War. This is followed by an examination of the post– Cold War period and China’s policies toward the alliances. Finally, policy options are discussed.

The study will review select policy-relevant scholarly publications of the 1990s, when the U.S.-led alliances were perceived to have made significant adaptations to the post–Cold War environment and when China’s perceptions of and policies toward these alliances also changed significantly. The survey also includes some interviews with Chinese analysts.

Published as part of the "America's Alliances with Japan and Korea in a Changing Northeast Asia" Research Project.

The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of
China’s foreign and defense policies. China’s position toward the alliances is determined by
its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a re-
gional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries
in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is
involved.

Published as part of the "America's Alliances with Japan and Korea in a Changing Northeast Asia" Research Project.

The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.

China’s attitude toward the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea alliances, particularly the former, has drawn a lot of attention in the post–Cold War era. How China views the utility and function of these two security alliances and reacts to them could well shape the dynamics of the alliances. From a historical perspective, however, this is not a new issue. China has lived with these alliances for almost half a century. To better understand China’s current concerns about the alliances and to predict its future posture, we might look for clues in what China has done in the past. This paper attempts to provide a broad survey of Chinese perceptions of the two security alliances in the Cold War period to elucidate Beijing’s post–Cold War policy orientation. By tracing the evolution of the Chinese calculus of the U.S.-Japan and U.S.- Korea alliances, it hopes to find answers to the following questions. What are some of the important variables or conditions that defined China’s attitudes and approaches to dealing with these two alliances? How do these variables or conditions interact with each other? Have they been constant or changing over time? Are they still relevant in the post–Cold War era, and to what extent?

The paper draws its findings mainly from the Chinese official media. While this may not be an ideal source, it nevertheless provides a systematic data basis for a historical analysis of continuity and change. There is no question that the official Chinese media, particularly before the 1980s, was full of rhetoric and propaganda. There has always been a gap between rhetoric and behavior in Chinese foreign policy, as in other countries. Nevertheless it is equally true that behind rhetoric always lie perceptions, self-serving or not, that provide “diagnostic propensities” and “choice propensities” of the Chinese leaders and elites, and thus have policy implications.

The findings of the paper suggest that China’s perceptions of the targets, internal structures, and functions of the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korean alliances have changed remark- ably over time, from extreme hostility to high tolerance. These changes resulted from the interactions of such factors as China’s assessment of the world balance of power, the well- being of its relationship with both indigenous and outside powers, and the priority of its national policy. The evolution of Chinese perceptions also illustrates that China need not view the two security alliances as inherently hostile to its interests. Under some circum- stances they can be considered useful or at least harmless. Beijing’s attitudes are often determined not by the two alliances per se but rather by its perception of the sources of threat to its security and whether these security alliances can alleviate or aggravate the threat. On the other hand, given the nature of China’s foreign policy, Beijing does not have intrinsic love for these alliances. Since the 1980s, China has not particularly endorsed any bilateral or multilateral military alliance in the region. Normatively China is also uneasy with the reality of the American military presence in the region and tends to see it as a short-term arrange- ment rather than a long-term phenomenon. During the Cold War, the Chinese perceived the two security alliances as either against China or with China. In the post–Cold War period, they have yet to be convinced that the function of the two alliances could be neither.

Published as part of the "America's Alliances with Japan and Korea in a Changing Northeast Asia" Research Project.

There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China–United States bilateral trade deficit. The 1995 China–United States bilateral balance of trade in goods and services, adjusted by both re-exports and re-export markups, may be estimated as US$23.3 billion, a large deficit but considerably smaller than the often-cited official U.S. figure of US$33.8 billion.

Reprint from The Pacific Review (Vol. 8, No. 2).

This volume, composed of nine provocative chapters by prominent Chinese specialists, analyzes Chinese economic change — the break-up of collective farming, the growth of private commerce, and the decentralization of industry.

Ezra Vogel contrasts the potential of China to industrialize with the rapid post-war industrial breakthroughs made by Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. He believes China, despite starting with a lower average income and lower educational level than these other east Asian nations, possesses the drive and determination to make rapid industrial progress before the mid-21st century.

David Zweig explores the dilemmas which result from continued regulatory controls on some sectors of the Chinese rural economy combined with deregulation of other sectors.

The Chinese village receives the keen attention of Thomas Gold and Jean C. Oi. Gold examines "decollectivization" in terms of how village leadership continues to maintain the power of the collective over the peasants and the nature of peasant "entrepreneurship" that has emerged. Oi suggests that diversification and particularly the industrialization of the village economics following reforms allow the collective to endure as an entity but with a different character.

• Ramon H. Meyers focuses on how the significance of the CCP's decision to initiate new economic reforms, first in 1978 and again in 1984, will influence the overall economic development in China. Robert Dernberger assesses the rate and structure of Chinese economic growth.
• Justin Yifu Lin explores the agricultural expansion during 1980 and 1984 as a result of the household responsibility system reform. The impact of the reform on saving and investment mechanisms receives the attention of Bruce Reynolds.
• Dorothy Solinger discusses Wuhan's comprehensive urban economic reform in terms of decentralization, leasing, stocks, bonds, bankruptcy, manager responsibility, markets, and trade centers.
• Victor C. Falkenheim explores China's efforts at decentralization of the economy through fostering regional reforms.

These authors, through their explorations and observations of China's efforts at reform, present a dynamic picture of change. However, they have not overlooked the staggering problems facing China's advancement into the 21st century. The China specialists who contributed to this volume provide a comprehensive view of China's path toward full industrialization.