Relations between the United States and South Korea today are stronger than ever, as reflected in President Barack Obama's recent announcement of his commitment with President Lee Myung-bak to ratifying the Korea-U.S. (KORUS) free trade agreement, the United States' largest free trade agreement since NAFTA. At the same time, the North Korean government's increasing aggressiveness amidst an impending leadership change in Pyongyang poses a serious challenge to the U.S.-South Korean longstanding alliance. Just one week after North Korea attacked the South Korean island of Yeonpyong, killing four people, Northeast Asia experts from the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) met in Seoul with scholars and former senior officials from the United States and South Korea to discuss the alliance, policy toward North Korea, and regional dynamics within Northeast Asia.

The Stanford scholars and experts visited Seoul in connection with two Shorenstein APARC initiatives by director Gi-Wook Shin, the Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum and the New Beginnings policy study group. Not surprisingly, their discussions focused on how to interpret and counter North Korea's recent heightened belligerence, including not only the Yeonpyeong attack but also the sinking of a South Korean navy vessel in March of this year with the loss of 46 sailors.

David Straub, associate director of Shorenstein APARC's Stanford Korean Studies Program, notes that this was the first time since the Korean War ended in 1953 that North Korea has attacked South Korean territory. "This [attack on Yeonpyeong Island] is something that frightened the South Koreans," he says, "It was unexpected and unprecedented. With North Korea moving toward putting Kim Jong-il's son in place as his successor, people in South Korea assume there is a lot of potential instability in the North and that this may be driving some of North Korea's actions. There is a lot of concern among the average South Korean now about what North Korea might do."

Shin initiated the West Coast Strategic Forum in 2006 to give greater voice to the many prominent Korea experts on the U.S. West Coast on Korea-related issues, and to serve as an ongoing forum for the exchange of views on issues of significance to the U.S.-South Korea alliance. This most recent meeting of the Forum was the fifth session. Strategic Forum workshops are held semi-annually, alternating between Stanford and Seoul. The Sejong Institute is Shorenstein APARC's Korean counterpart organization. In addition, American and Korean participants maintain frequent contact among themselves via telephone and e-mail, and they travel individually to each other's country on a regular basis to keep abreast of alliance developments.

The New Beginnings policy study group was established in 2008, after a decade of rocky U.S.-South Korea relations, with the promise of new presidential administrations in both countries. "We were optimistic that relations could be improved and wanted to contribute to that effort," says Straub. The ten members of New Beginnings, leading scholars and experts on Northeast Asian affairs throughout the United States, usually meet as a group for workshop discussions once or twice each year, and travel together occasionally for on-site discussions in Seoul, Washington, D.C., and New York. Shorenstein APARC has partnered with The Korea Society of New York City on this project. The group annually prepares a report for the U.S. administration with recommendations for strengthening its alliance with South Korea.

During the meetings in South Korea, discussions about the alliance focused, in part, on how to deter future attacks from North Korea, and how to better respond-individually and jointly-in the event of another assault. The intended ratification of the KORUS FTA was also discussed. According to Straub, the KORUS FTA is generally viewed favorably in South Korea and is likely to be ratified despite resistance from South Korea's opposition party. With South Korea's total future trade with China soon expected to amount to more than its combined trade with the United States and Japan, the FTA will not only significantly bolster U.S.-South Korea trade, it will also broaden and deepen the alliance relationship. "From a South Korean perspective it helps to maintain some balance in overall relations between the United States and China," states Straub, "It also serves as a precedent for South Korea's intended negotiations with other countries for free trade agreements. In the United States, President Obama has linked it to his plan to double export growth by 2015."

Shorenstein APARC plans to continue holding meetings of both the West Coast Forum and New Beginnings. "Even though overall government-to-government relations are at their best ever," says Straub, "there are continuing political divisions in South Korea on issues of importance to the relationship and North Korea's behavior is getting increasingly worse. We think that there is reason to continue the New Beginnings project for some time to come." In addition to better informing policymakers in the United States and South Korea, the meetings of the Forum and of the New Beginnings policy group strengthen the scholarship of the participants, and all public documents, including the annual reports to the U.S. administration, are published on the Shorenstein APARC website.

". . . History, values, memory, and identity are significant elements that can influence the 'soft power' of an alliance built on 'hard power,' and policy makers of both nations should not overlook their importance," says Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Stanford Korean Studies Program, in the chapter that he contributed to the recently published book U.S. Leadership, History, and Bilateral Relations in Northeast Asia.

In his chapter "Values and History in U.S.-South Korean Relations," Shin discusses developments in the types of issues that the United States and South Korea have collaborated on in recent years--including free trade agreements, Iraq and Afghanistan military operations, and policy coordination toward North Korea--and the significance of issues of history, values, memory, and identity--such as inter-Korean reconciliation and memories of U.S. military maneuvers in Korea--that have given the U.S.-South Korea relationship a "more complex and multidimensional" nature.

Published by Cambridge University Press in October 2010, the book was edited by Gilbert Rozman of Princeton University's Department of Sociology.

Over the past year, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) has engaged in leading-edge research on demographic change in East Asia. Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at Shorenstein APARC, discusses the recent book Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea, and the workshop on the economic, social, and political/security implications of demographic change in East Asia, held January 20-21 at Shorenstein APARC.

Across Northeast Asia, countries are facing the issue of an aging population, which causes socio-economic challenges that have policy implications. You explore this phenomenon in your forthcoming book Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea. When did aging begin to become an issue and what are some of the greatest factors that you address in the book?

Aging started at different times in the countries of East Asia. The country with the oldest life expectancy in the world and the oldest age structure of its population is Japan. It had a very short baby boom after the war and has had a steep decline in fertility. Mortality has also been falling around the world, and so this creates a change in the population. Japan is already at the fourth stage of demographic transition. South Korea is rapidly moving towards that and already has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Of course, neither of them have policies to reduce fertility; in fact, they are trying to encourage it. China, on the other hand, has long been trying to control fertility and is not as extreme in terms of the population age structure, but it is rapidly changing. China will be older in median age than the United States soon—this is not a trivial factor when you think in terms of the absolute size of the Chinese population.

One of the things that we wanted to study in this project is the premise that the demographic transition is a "problem." It is true that you need to think about and have policy responses to it. But it can also be seen as a sign of success, and as an opportunity. We wanted to reframe the issue and think about evidence on both sides. There is some research highlighted in the book, for example, that looks at the impact of population aging on economic growth, which is one of the first things that comes to many people's minds. For example, if you have a lot of elderly people, they are not in the work force and they need to be supported. It is true that this can be bad for economic growth, but there also are policy and individual responses that may moderate the effects. Our research is trying to highlight several different aspects of aging, including the question of opportunity. For example, there is more investment in individual children now and elderly persons' savings have actually contributed to economic growth. In some aspects, this has been a sign of resiliency for Japan where there are a lot of transfers to the working-age population.

Ronald Lee at the University of California, Berkeley and Andrew Mason at the East-West Center at the University of Hawai'i, who is participating in the January workshop, have been working on the concept of a "second demographic dividend." They find that as countries have an older age structure, there are more people that are saving. In the widely accepted "first demographic dividend," there are more people in the working-age part of the population—more people employed and more people contributing to the GDP. You get a boom contributing to growth. We know that this contributed to Japan and South Korea's earlier growth, and to China's in the 80s and part of the 90s, but only one or two percent of GDP. The question then is whether it is a problem that with aging you are losing that first demographic dividend. A second demographic dividend might arise because people who are preparing for a longer retirement life are saving more, and those savings are then invested in the economy and the investment drives economic growth.

Is there any correlation to demographic issues faced by the United States?

Interestingly, the aging issue is more pronounced in East Asia than in the United States for several reasons. We have a higher fertility rate than in Japan and South Korea, and many other countries in Europe as well. We also historically are much more open to immigration than most other countries, and this has led to a certain vitality in the population mix that has slowed the impact of demographic change. That said, of course, there are issues with having a lot of baby boomers. Sometimes, depending on the specific question or the specific area of policy, you find other factors that are much more important than aging. For example, the growth of healthcare spending has been in the news a lot lately. Although obviously there is an impact from having more elderly people, there are much bigger issues, such as what we are spending per person per age group and the growth of that spending. Just aging per se is not as big of an issue as people might think.

In late January, you will be holding the workshop Comparative Policy Responses to Demographic Change in East Asia: Defining a Research Agenda. What are the major issues you will explore in the conference? Who will be involved? Finally, what is the publication or research project that you will launch from this?

We had an Aging Asia conference in February 2009, co-sponsored with the Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity. The outcome of this is the forthcoming volume, co-edited with Shripad Tuljapurkar of the Department of Biology at Stanford University. We started with a basic survey of the region and thought about the basic trends-demographic, social, and economic-and built upon that to figure out where the gaps are in the literature and where the interesting research questions are. That is where the January 2011 workshop comes in as the next step. We are bringing in some of the same and some different people to focus on three specific themes: economics, society, and politics/security. The upcoming event again focuses on East Asia and there will be a public component, but it is a smaller event and its main goal is to dig deeper into these themes to figure out an interesting research agenda on the policy responses to demographic transition.

We decided to focus again on East Asia, which is the research focus of a lot of our Shorenstein APARC faculty. Masahiko Aoki and Michael Armacost are going to chair sessions, and Gi-Wook Shin is going to kick it all off and talk about the social aspects of demographic change. Andrew Walder will be participating in that session as well. Thomas Fingar will be covering the political and security implications. All Shorenstein APARC faculty have been invited to participate and think about how this issue of demographic change—and particularly policy responses—might be related to their own areas of research. 

An illustration that I like to give when people ask about how demographic change is related to other things is from Andrew Walder when he was talking about China's transition in the 1980s. He received a question about whether or not there had been an impact from the One Child policy. He said that obviously there are many different impacts, but the one thing that he noted was that students in China now, especially if they are only children, are under a lot of career pressure. This has changed the space or the freedom for self-exploration. Why does this have broader implications? Young people see access to political power as one key for their careers and this changes their views about joining the Communist Party, which has big implications for China's political future. This is just one illustration of how we are trying to explore the broader implications of demographic change.

Finally, what is the outcome that you would most hope to achieve through Aging Asia and the upcoming demographic change workshop?

I think that the biggest hope would be to develop a much better understanding of what is going on with demographic change: what are the processes and how is society changing? What are the individual challenges that families are facing and what are they are doing about it? What is the broader social or even global perspective on how this is going to shape our future world? For me, I think about the world that my children are going to grow up in.

Through our research, I hope that we will impact not only the understanding of what has driven past developments, but create policy recommendations for each of the societies that were are examining—including our own—on the opportunities and the challenges related to changes in population. That hopefully will be useful as these different societies think about how to respond.

Our research on the economic, the social, and political/security aspects of demographic change is intended to be tangible for individuals and families as well as for broader national policy.

In 1998, in the twilight of the 20th century, the resignation of Indonesia's autocratic president Suharto ushered in a new political era. Corresponding changes occurred in Indonesia's economic, social, and cultural landscape. That transformation challenged and transformed the thinking of many Indonesians. One of them was Dr. Dino Patti Djalal, who recently became his country's ambassador to the United States. "I entered the twenty-first century with a new mindset," said Djalal to an overflow audience at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) on November 18, 2010.

As the son of a renowned Indonesian diplomat, Djalal spent much of his youth and early adulthood abroad. He attended high school in the United States and college in Canada, and went on to earn his doctorate from the London School of Economics and Political Science. Djalal's diverse professional talents and experience encompass writing, politics, and film production. Passionate about inspiring and empowering young Indonesians, Djalal founded Modernisator, a youth leadership movement in Indonesia. Before becoming ambassador to the United States in September 2010, he served on the staff of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as a spokesperson and special adviser on foreign affairs.

Djalal's speech at Shorenstein APARC featured his top eight personal beliefs about the 21st century. His remarks were a mixture of optimism and wonder tempered by caution. This new century in Djalal's eyes promises great progress and opportunity, in contrast to the 20th century, which he called "probably the bloodiest century ever in human history." Looking forward, he spoke of an "explosion of creativity," the growth of emerging and developing economies, and major advances in technology. The power to eradicate poverty and to achieve world harmony is within our grasp, he argued, provided countries are willing to be open to new ideas and to embrace progress and change.

The last century, Djalal noted, saw the fall and fragmentation of empires and the birth of many new states. Looking ahead, he did not foresee great changes in the world's geopolitical map. He hoped that world leaders would not promote a further proliferation of new countries, which would increase rivalry and instability. Instead the goal should be unification, as in the case of the Korean Peninsula. He spoke optimistically of the trend whereby existing countries such as Indonesia manage to "proliferise," or acquire new and greater global relevance, and advocated a "geopolitics of cooperation" among larger and smaller countries, as in the Group of 20.

Djalal stressed the need for rapid innovation and ongoing social, economic, and educational change. A nation that wants to succeed in the 21st century must be open and adaptable. Analysts once thought that major changes could only unfold over several generations, but now, Djalal argued, dramatic change can occur in the span of a single generation. In addition to developing open and progressive political thinking, said Djalal, good governance is essential if the world is to enjoy stability and prosperity in this century. Having a democratic government does not automatically ensure good governance, he argued. Political leaders must strive to build strong, accountable institutions that emphasize positive outcomes in key sectors such as health, education, and entrepreneurship.

Addressing the younger generation, Djalal said, "skill is your best currency" in the present century. Individuals, empowered by education and technology, are now free to make their way in the world based on their own talents. He recalled that in an earlier era in Indonesia, as in many other parts of the world, access to information was limited by social status, wealth, and gender. More than any other factor, according to Djalal, technology is the "most important driver of change." It is the small, innovative technologies such as cell phones and online banking that will most change the world, provided we learn "how to adopt it without destroying the human soul."

Globalization is here to stay, Djalal argued, so it is crucial to "embrace it intelligently." Indonesia is a large country. But rather than rely on superior physical size, Indonesia and other large countries must climb the global ranks on less tangible dimensions such as education, including the skill sets needed to develop their economies. While being open to engaging with the rest of the world, he added, countries must also cultivate a strong sense of national identity.

Djalal closed on a high and provocative note, suggesting that the free, innovative, and global nature of the current century provides the means for young people today to become "potentially the best generation of all previous generations." How then should we proceed, as individuals and as countries, to realize that bright future? Djalal left that question hanging in the air for his audience to consider and to answer.