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This luncheon comes at a time when the Shorenstein Forum is nurturing a special interest in journalism, and embarking on shared activities with its sister institution at Harvard, the Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics, and Public Policy. The Forum is delighted to welcome this distinguished delegation from the Brookings Institution. ***** THIS LUNCHEON IS BY INVITATION ONLY. *****

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing

Li Xiaoping Director Speaker Institute of Political and Legal Studies, Moscow
Chen Hao Executive Producer Speaker TVBS, Taiwan's leading cable network
Chris Yeung Chief Political Editor Speaker South China Morning Post
Chungsoo Kim Economic Analyst Speaker JoongAng Ilbo newpaper, South Korea
Alexander Lukin Producer Speaker "Focus", China Central
Workshops
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Qian investigates decentralization and fiscal incentives in the central-provincial relationship during China's reform. He finds a strong correlation between local government revenue collection and local government expenditure and shows that the fiscal contracting system provides local governments with strong fiscal incentives. He also finds that stronger fiscal incentives in terms of higher marginal revenue retention rate implies faster development of non-state enterprises and more reform in state-owned enterprises. Federalism, Chinese style, is compared to federalism, Russian style. Born in Beijing, Yingyi Qian received his B.S. in applied mathematics from Tsinghua University, Beijing; his M.A. in statistics from Columbia University; his M.Phil. in management science from Yale University; and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. Professor Qian's fields of research include the theory of organizations, comparative institutional analysis, economics of transition, and reform and development in China. He is the author and co-author of many papers, including "Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraints," "Understanding China's Township-Village Enterprises," "Financial System Reform in China: Lessons from Japan's Main-Bank System," and "Enterprise Reform in China: Agency Problems and Political Control."

A/PARC Hills Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Second floor

Yingyi Qian Assistant Professor Speaker Department of Economics, Stanford University
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The talk deals with the affects of state-led industrialization on social formation in South Korea. Ha focuses on explaining why traditional primary ties have become dominant social units in spite of extensive and rapid economic changes. Going beyond a conventional abstract state-based explanation of Korean economic success, his talk traces historical origins of social conditions in the 1960s which interacted with state-initiated economic development to bring about neofamilial social units. By proposing a different framework to understand social consequences of Korean industrialization, theoretical and practical advantages will be presented through specific examples, such as the nature of civil society, middle class and bureaucracy. Prof. Ha received his Ph.D. from UC Berkeley in 1985. He has been teaching at the Department of International Relations of Seoul National University since 1986. He is currently on leave as visiting professor at the Department of Political Science of UC Berkeley. His recent research is on industrialization and tradition in late industrializing countries and the impacts of the role of strong state on society. He is preparing a book on social institutional dynamics of late industrializing countries. Some of his works include: Legitimacy and Stability under Brezhnev: A Case of Drifting Regime Type (1997, in Russian), Industrialization and Debureaucratization of Korean Bureaucracy (1996, in Korean), The Modern School System and the Reinforcement of School Ties: A Paradox of Colonial Control (1997).

A/PARC Hills Conference Room, Encina Hall, East Wing, Second floor

Yong-Chool Ha Visiting Scholar Speaker Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley
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John Wilson Lewis, William Haas Professor Emeritus of Chinese Politics at Stanford University, is one the founders of the field of contemporary China studies. After receiving a doctorate from UCLA, he taught at Cornell University before coming to Stanford in 1968. He founded and directed Stanford's Center for East Asian Studies, as well as the Center for International Security and Arms Control, and the Northeast Asia-United States Forum on International Policy (now Shorenstein APARC). He currently directs the Project on Peace and Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region. Professor Lewis has written widely about China, Asia, and security matters. Many of his works have long been required reading for students of Chinese politics, especially his still often cited Leadership in Communist China. His edited volumes include: The City in Communist China, Party Leadership and Revolutionary Power in China, Peasant Rebellion and Communist Revolution in Asia, and Next Steps in the Creation of an Accidental Nuclear War Prevention Center. His history of the Chinese nuclear weapons program, China Builds the Bomb, written with Xue Litai, is published both in English (by Stanford University Press), and, in Chinese, by the Atomic Energy Press in Beijing. He has also co-authored Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War and China's Strategic Seapower: The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age. In addition to his work at Stanford, John Lewis has served on the Committee on International Security and Arms Control of the National Academy of Sciences, the Joint Committee on Contemporary China of the Social Science Research Council, and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. He has been a consultant to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Department of Defense, and is currently a consultant to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress. He has made numerous visits to the People's Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and the Soviet Union/Russian Federation.

Bechtel Conference Center

John Lewis William Haas Professor Emeritus of Chinese Politics Speaker Stanford University
Lectures

In collaboration with sociologists at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the People's University of China in Beijing, Professor Andrew Walder has worked to design and field a nationally representative survey of 6,400 Chinese households. The survey, which took place in 1996, was the first of its kind in China. It collected detailed information on occupations, income, and housing conditions for families, in addition to complete career and educational histories for respondents and less detailed histories for spouses, parents, and grandparents.

Paragraphs

Why Poor Countries Are Becoming Richer, Democratic, Increasingly Peaceable, and Sometimes More Dangerous

It is easy to be confused about the world’s prospect. On the one hand, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire, many millions of people have been freed from economic and political shackles that had long kept them under authoritarian rule and in poverty—or at least far poorer than they should be. On the other hand, several parts of the world are beset by political turmoil and conflicts, rapid population increases, and falling incomes.

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Henry S. Rowen
Number
0-9653935-8-5
Paragraphs

The Korean-American alliance has kept the peace on the Korean peninsula for forty-five years since its inception in 1953. Now that a gradual process for Korean unification has gotten under way as indicated by the beginning of the Four-Party Talks and North-South dialogues, it is important to reexamine the origins and evolution of this alliance in order that its future challenges in the changing strategic environment in the Asia Pacific region can be met.

In addressing this issue, we must examine the alliance’s origins in the Cold War and the Korean War, for the alliance was established to deter another war after the Korean War was halted in an armistice. In tracing its evolution, we must explain how the shifting strategic environment and the allies’ responses have affected its transformation by analyzing the impact of such important events as the Vietnam War, the Sino-Soviet dispute and the Nixon Doctrine, the Reagan and Bush years, the end of the Cold War and North Korea’s nuclear challenge, the prospects for unification, and regional rivalry between major powers. Finally, we should speculate on the future of the Korean-American alliance after the unification of Korea. It is difficult to ascertain the Korean perspective on these questions. Hence it should be made clear at the outset that what follows is only one Korean perspective as I see it in light of the available material.

Published as part of the "America's Alliances with Japan and Korea in a Changing Northeast Asia" Research Project.

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This discussion focuses on U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea relations and how the two interact. The U.S.-Japan review of the 1978 Defense Guidelines also will be considered, in terms of what it does and does not entail and in terms of its application to the security of the Korean peninsula and, more broadly, Asia.

An underlying theme of this presentation is that the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea relationships can survive and prosper only if the United States, Japan, and Korea share some degree of confluence of views on relations with China. There are common objectives in Northeast Asia shared not only by the United States, Japan, and Korea, but by China, Russia, and perhaps even North Korea. Many of these objectives concern the Korean peninsula, where all of the powers want stability and no one wants to see war. From a theoretical viewpoint, everyone is looking toward a "soft landing" and eventual peaceful reunification. Sometimes the visceral South Korean view seems to differ, and some of the Republic of Korea's policies may be in contradiction with the stated desirable outcome; this may cause tension in the U.S.-Korea alliance in the future.

The desire for a soft landing does not mean that the major powers are pushing to hasten reunification. Ironically, the country least anxious to see it, namely China, is the one least often accused of trying to prolong separation of the two Koreas. South Koreans accuse Japan of trying to keep Korea divided, and whenever the United States talks with North Korea, it is similarly charged. That is not the policy direction of either Japan or the United States; in fact, the Koreans seem not to need help from the outside to be hostile to each other.

Published as part of the "America's Alliances with Japan and Korea in a Changing Northeast Asia" Research Project.

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In comparison with the postwar decades from 1945 to 1990, East Asian prospects for peaceful stability and economic growth have never been better. The Cold War confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States has ended. The arms race that flooded the Pacific region with Soviet and U.S. nuclear weapons systems has been replaced by a gradual phasing out of tactical and intermediate missiles. The navies of the two superpowers are diminishing, albeit involuntary on Russia’s part. Moscow’s alliances with Pyongyang and Hanoi now exist only on paper. Washington’s bases in the Philippines were closed by mutual agreement.

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