At the annual Oksenberg Lecture, Max Baucus, former U.S. ambassador to China, says the U.S.-China relationship is steady, highlights need for greater U.S. engagement on areas of trade and the South China Sea

Despite talk of potential conflict between China and the United States, Max Baucus, who served as U.S. ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2014 until 2017, said the bilateral relationship is stable and that its long-term management will determine the future quality of life in both countries.

“Essentially, it’s sound,” Baucus said of the relationship. “China and the United States both need each other.”

As the world’s largest economies, China and the United States are vital to each other’s success, and that makes the Thucydides Trap far from inevitable, said Baucus, who spoke at the annual Oksenberg Lecture hosted by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as part of the China Program’s 10th Anniversary celebration last week.

The Thucydides Trap, a term used to describe a pattern in history where conflict resulted from tension between a rising power and a ruling power, has been applied in theory to the U.S.-China relationship by experts, but Baucus expressed doubt that the two countries would fall into it.

Baucus’ remarks at the annual event, named in honor of the late Michel Oksenberg, were followed by comments from Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC Fellow; Daniel Russel, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute; and Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; moderated by Jean C. Oi, political science professor and director of the China Program.

Baucus said that, despite the draw to succumb to the idea of the Thucydides Trap, what reassured him of the contrary were the many examples of Chinese and American leaders working together on areas of collaboration that he witnessed throughout his term as ambassador.

Russel, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, also cautioned about the dangers of applying the comparison of the Thucydides Trap to the U.S.-China relationship, and emphasized that the role of human agency - both positive and negative - can shape the course of events.

“As important as it is to learn from history, it can be a bit treacherous if we apply it as a law of physics,” said Russel. “In 2017, we see that, on the one hand, there are structural factors that drive a strategic rivalry, and on the other hand, there are modern factors like globalization that drive tremendous interdependence.”

One challenge that flared during Baucus’ tenure was the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and he said he believes that, had the United States been more forward, it could have accomplished more of its strategic objectives on the issue.

Only after a summit was held between President Obama and President Xi Jinping in September 2015, where the U.S. government delivered a clear message that land reclamation and construction are unacceptable under international law, did Baucus see signs that the Chinese government took notice.

“Frankly, I believe we should have acted sooner,” Baucus said, suggesting that freedom of navigation operations by the United States in the South China Sea should be conducted more often and in concert with other countries.

Another challenge that Baucus encountered was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade pact led by the United States and put forth under the Obama administration, which he described as an “economic compliment” to the U.S. military presence in the region.

Baucus, a former senator from Montana who spent time on Capitol Hill speaking about the merits of the TPP as ambassador, said the pact’s eventual abandonment by President Trump was a “huge mistake.”

On the future of the U.S.-China relationship, Baucus called for greater engagement, including additional summits between policymakers and with a more candid format that would allow participants to ask questions in addition to reading prepared statements.

“We need constant, repetitive and comprehensive engagement,” Baucus said.

The United States needs to take more thoughtful risks in its engagement with China and to build a vision and strategy that it could “stick with,” he said.

The United States must also find “that delicate balance” between its relationships with China as well as Japan and South Korea, according to Armacost, who served for two decades in the U.S. government.

Armacost noted that every U.S. administration weighs its strategic interests against the geopolitical context and that the Trump administration has yet to make clear how it intends to approach such a balance.

Stephens, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, agreed that long-term strategic planning would be constructive, and that the Chinese and U.S. governments would benefit from taking a step back to think about where each sees their own role in the world.

“As the world has flattened, I think our understanding and appreciation for the depth of differences that exist at the high policy levels and at a cultural level has dimmed a bit,” she said.

More emphasis on learning historical, cultural and political factors could serve to enhance understanding between people in China and the United States and help address bilateral challenges, Stephens said.

“It’s going to take a little more focus and more resources,” said Baucus. “But I do think that American resilience is going to find an answer to these challenges.”

Related links:

Photo gallery from the 2017 Oksenberg Lecture

China Program's 10th Anniversary Conference: Panelists exchange views on China's future

Brochure: Celebrating the First 10 Years of the China Program

Researchers urge Moon Jae-in to form a close working relationship with Donald Trump and to establish a new special envoy role for North Korea policy emulating the “Perry Process”

Researchers from the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) said they are optimistic about the election of South Korean president Moon Jae-in who assumed office last week following waves of protest across the country.

Now that the vacancy left in the wake of former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment has been filled, the South Korean government needs to work to strengthen bilateral relations with the United States amid escalating tensions in Northeast Asia, they said.

The Moon administration should immediately engage U.S. President Donald Trump and his senior staff at the White House and government agencies, said Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC.

“Moon would do well to establish a personal relationship with Trump,” said Stephens, who was U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 2008 to 2011. “The new administration must set up a meeting as early as possible and be ready to engage on a range of issues.”

“In a sense, Moon has to play catch-up,” said Shorenstein APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, who noted that Trump already held in-person meetings with other Asian heads of state in the United States, including summits with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Shin added that a coherent U.S. strategy toward Asia and senior staff appointments in the State and Defense Departments would also aid in supporting the foundation upon which the South Korean and American governments work together on policy challenges, especially North Korea.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities have become more and more advanced over the past few months, and provocations have continued to ratchet up, including its firing of a ballistic missile that landed in the sea near Russia on Sunday and repeat threats to conduct a sixth nuclear test.

The Moon administration must focus on establishing trust and cooperation with the Trump administration because it is the only pathway to finding a resolution to North Korea’s program, said Siegfried Hecker, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, an additional center in the Freeman Spogli Institute.

“Any solution must be compatible with the interests of Seoul, but it has to be done in concert with Washington to get Pyongyang’s attention,” said Hecker, who served as director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and has traveled to North Korea seven times since 2004 to survey its nuclear facilities.

During the campaign, Moon repeatedly spoke of his proposals to reengage the North Korean regime, such as holding talks with its leader Kim Jong-un and re-opening Kaesong Industrial Complex, a joint economic zone on the North Korean side of the border.

Stephens and Shin said Moon’s proposals for North Korean engagement would be a step in the right direction if pursued in due time and led under the direction of a special envoy from South Korea emulating the American “Perry Process.”

The Perry Process, proposed by former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry and implemented in the late 1990s under the Clinton administration, entails the appointment of a senior-level, bipartisan representative to pursue a two-track approach of engagement through joint projects and of continued dialogue on denuclearization with North Korea.

Appointing one person in South Korea to lead North Korea policy would help centralize and streamline its organization, which currently requires coordination of activities across dozens of government agencies, the two researchers noted.

“We recognize that establishing such a position and filling the position would be far from easy,” said Shin, co-author of the study Tailored Engagement. “But the magnitude of the nuclear crisis requires restructuring the way in which the South Korean government deals with North Korea, achieving domestic consensus, and shoring up international support for its efforts.”

The United States, China, Japan and Russia are the key international countries concerned with the peace and stability of Northeast Asia, yet South Korea has both an acute need and the potential to assume greater leadership of North Korea policy, said Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar.

China, as North Korea’s largest trade partner, exercises influence over North Korea by maintaining a commercial relationship in the hope of avoiding a collapse of the regime. Yet, its leverage only goes so far, he added.

The Moon administration should consider the limits of Chinese influence before making policy decisions regarding North Korea, Fingar said, for example, whether to freeze or remove the U.S. anti-ballistic missile system, Thermal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), deployed last April in South Korea, which the Chinese government strongly opposed.

“There is little that Beijing can or will do that would persuade Pyongyang to be more receptive to initiatives from Seoul than it would otherwise be,” said Fingar, a China specialist who served as chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council. “Seoul should not ‘pay’ much to obtain Chinese assistance because China already supports reengagement and would not do more no matter what Seoul offered as an inducement.”

It is of vital importance the Moon administration seeks to strengthen trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the United States, and to consider holding a summit to address areas of collaboration, all of which would function alongside the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral structure toward creating stability in the region, according to Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at Shorenstein APARC.

“Such cooperation is essential to the security of the region – without it, the United States cannot fulfill its obligation to defend South Korea against the threat posed by North Korea,” said Sneider, who leads the Divided Memories and Reconciliation research project. “Moreover, it’s in the interest of all three countries to tighten such cooperation to balance the rise of China.”

The Moon administration should, above all else, take time to consider its first steps despite pressures to perform early, said Michael Armacost, a fellow at Shorenstein APARC who held a 24-year career in the U.S. government.

“Getting things right is more important than making a quick splash,” said Armacost, a former U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs. “I would advise any new president to proceed at a deliberate pace, focusing particularly on the key personal issues first, and consulting widely before enunciating major policy departures.”

Related links:

South Korea's election: Shorenstein APARC scholars offer insight

Yonhap News: 미 한반도 전문가 그룹 "한국형 페리 프로세스 필요" (May 16, 2017)

VOA: 미 전문가들 "한국 정부, 미국과 북 핵 협력 중요...대북특사도 임명해야" (May 17, 2017)

Moon Jae-in was elected South Korea’s president on a pledge to address domestic inequality and to renew dialogue with North Korea. In the midst of Tuesday’s vote, Shorenstein APARC scholars offered insight to local and international media outlets.

Gi-Wook Shin, professor of sociology and director of Shorenstein APARC’s Korea Program, provided comment to The Economist about the challenges facing an administration led by Moon, a progressive candidate who is assuming power when an active conservative camp remains. He is also cited in an article in the New York Times focused on Moon's economic agenda and featured in a video from a Korea Society event that examines next steps for the new president.

Rennie Moon, the Koret Fellow in the Korea Program, co-authored an analysis piece on the East Asia Forum with Shin analyzing recent polls and the Moon administration's economic and security agenda.

Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at Shorenstein APARC, wrote an analysis piece for The National Bureau of Asian Research. In the piece, he explores how the election could impact the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC, appeared in a live interview on CNBC. In the taping, she discusses the significance of the vote and the new administration’s priorities as Moon swiftly takes office following the removal of his predecessor.

Northeast Asia relations are increasingly under strain as South Korea and China await shifts in political leadership and the threat of a sixth nuclear test by North Korea looms large. Scholars from the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) have offered comment and analysis to media outlets about the evolving environment.

Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein APARC’s Korea Program, recognized in an interview with the Christian Science Monitor that, while threats posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile program aren’t new, it is best practice to always be prepared for the possibility of conflict.

“I’m someone who believes that you have to get ready for the worst-case scenario. If something does happen, the consequences will be huge,” said Shin, who recalled the air-raid drills of his youth in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is centered 35 miles from the border of North Korea.

Shin also spoke with Yonhap News about positions held by the Trump administration, which, he said, includes the view that the policy of “strategic patience” has failed and that tensions in Northeast Asia have led the administration to consider – with greater plausibility – the option of a preemptive military strike.

Addressing China’s relationship with North Korea, Shorenstein APARC Associate Director for Research Daniel Sneider wrote an analysis piece for Tokyo Business Today. He argued that, despite President Trump’s tense rhetoric, U.S. policy toward North Korea could so far be described as “‘let China do it.’”

“The ‘let China let do it’ policy is hardly new,” Sneider wrote in the piece, available in English and Japanese.

“Why does the Trump administration believe this will work now? In part, the answer is the same as under the two previous administration – there are no better options available.”

Last month, Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC, spoke at length about North Korea policy on PBS NewsHour following Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s remarks in Seoul, where he acknowledged, “all options are on the table.”

Asked about the significance of Tillerson’s remarks, Stephens said his speech would be "closely listened to and heard throughout the region, as well as [in the United States]."

“One thing that did strike me about Secretary Tillerson’s remarks was that he was quite specific and categorical in saying now is not the time for talks,” Stephens said in the interview. “I actually would have liked to have seen him keep the door a little bit ajar on that, because I think, when you do have a new administration in Washington…that's a good argument for trying to climb that mountain one more time and seeing what’s possible diplomatically.”

Yong Suk Lee, deputy director of the Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC and SK Center Fellow at FSI, argues that "automation is significantly more important in explaining employment decline than import competition." The full article is available here.

Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) Director Gi-Wook Shin spoke with Yonhap News about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, following a visit to U.S. Pacific Command with a delegation of scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

While there, U.S. officials conveyed that the United States has the capability to strike North Korea should the president make that call.

U.S. officials said that North Korea had already moved into the “red zone,” and that the Trump administration has the view that it cannot miss a window of opportunity to stop the nuclear and missile program before it advances further.

Shin also said he believed that the Trump administration holds a view that the policy of “strategic patience” failed under the Obama administration, and that growing tensions on the Peninsula have compelled the Trump administration to consider – with greater plausibility – the option of a preemptive military strike.

Regional tensions have risen in the midst of impending political shifts in South Korea, where a new president will assume office following a snap election this May, and in China, where the Party Congress will meet to appoint new senior leadership of the Chinese Communist Party this fall.

Whoever becomes president in South Korea should place relations with North Korea at the top of the agenda and consider sending an envoy early on to meet its leader Kim Jong-un in-person, Shin said.

The Yonhap interview can be viewed in Korean, and a shorter version, in English. A related analysis piece is also available on MK News (in Korean).

Uncertainty about U.S. intentions in Northeast Asia has increased fear that events could spin out of control in the region due to American disengagement. That engagement cannot be taken for granted, Shorenstein Fellow Thomas Fingar writes on the Stanford University Press blog, and it remains to be seen just how well regional political leaders adjust to the Trump administration’s evolving foreign policy.

The blog post highlights themes from his book Uneasy Partnerships: China’s Engagement with Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, April 2017).