Stanford University

Information, Development, and Life-course Smoking Pattern in Mainland China and Taiwan over 50 Years

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We use retrospectively reported data on smoking behavior of residents of Mainland China and Taiwan to compare and contrast patterns in smoking behavior over the life-course of individuals in these two regions. Because we construct the life-history of smoking for all survey respondents, our data cover an exceptionally long period of time – up to fifty years in both samples. During this period, both societies experienced substantial social and economic changes. The two regions developed at much different rates and the political systems of the two areas evolved in very different ways. More importantly, governments in the two areas set policies that caused the flow of information about the health risks of smoking to differ across the regions and over time. We exploit these differences, using counts of articles in newspapers from 1951 to present, to explore whether and how the arrival of information affected life-course smoking decisions of residents in the two areas. We also present evidence that suggests how prices/taxes and key historical events might have affected decisions to smoke.

Dean Lillard received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 1991. From 1991 to 2012, he was a faculty member and senior research associate in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University. In August 2012 he joined the Department Human Sciences at Ohio State University as an Associate Professor. He is Director and Project Manager of the Cross-National Equivalent File study that produces cross-national data. He is a member of the American Economics Association, the Population Association of America, the International Association for Research on Income and Wealth, the International Health Economics Association, the American Society for Health Economics, a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, Germany, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He serves on the advisory board of the Danish National Institute for Social Research in Copenhagen, Denmark and the Cross-National Studies: Interdisciplinary Research and Training Program – a collaborative program run by the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), and together with the Mershon Centre at OSU.

Dean Lillard's current research focuses on health economics, the economics of schooling, and international comparisons of economic behavior. His research in health economics is primarily focused on the economics of the marketing and consumption of cigarettes and alcohol. His research on the economics of schooling includes studies of direct effects of policy on educational outcomes and on the role that education plays in other economic behaviors such as smoking, production of health, and earnings. His cross-national research ranges widely from comparisons of the role that obesity plays in determining labor market outcomes to comparisons of smoking behavior cross-nationally.

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Dean R. Lillard Associate Professor, Department Human Sciences Speaker Ohio State University
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Challenge and opportunity for Myanmar as it assumes 2014 ASEAN chair

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Donald K. Emmerson
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Is Myanmar ready to lead ASEAN? What are the most critical challenges (both internal and external) that Myanmar will face as the ASEAN chair in 2014?

It is conventional to think of Myanmar as being "tested" by the need to prepare in 2014 for the declaration of the existence of an ASEAN Community by the end of 2015. And that of course is a plausible focus for anyone who would reply to the given questions. But it might also be interesting to think beyond ASEAN's schedule and ask what "black swans" could be swimming, e.g. in the South China Sea. Beijing has stated that its declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over contested parts of the East China Sea could be repeated for other airspaces, including presumably the huge block of air above the South China Sea.

So far ASEAN has managed to keep a low (and divided) profile on the imbroglio over who owns what in the South China Sea. Myanmar, if it is chairing ASEAN when China announces its South China Sea ADIZ, will face pressure from inside ASEAN to do more than merely reassert faith in the delayed segue from a Declaration of Conduct to a Code of Conduct.

Various scenarios are of course possible, including a decision in Beijing not to pivot southward, at least not until the anger over its eastward ADIZ has subsided. But one should not assume that the success of Myanmar-in-the-chair in 2014 will be a function solely of its ability to help welcome a "white swan," i.e. to oversee preparations for celebrating the inauguration of a regional community to which no one really objects.

This commentary was originally carried by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) in their bulletin, Multilateral Matters, Issue 10, January 2014.

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Good Neighbor? Bad Neighbor? A Historical Perspective on Sino-Japanese Relations

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“Is Japan really part of Asia?” This question has agitated Japanese intellectuals, pundits and politicians since the country embarked on the road to modernity in the Meiji era. By the turn of the twentieth century the widening cultural and economic gap between the Japanese and their neighbors on the Asian mainland suggested that Japan’s geography no longer matched its position the world order.  It raised the question of just where Japan belonged: with the countries immediately across the sea or with more distant “civilized” societies it sought as models and mentors? In a sense this issue still confronts the Japanese today as they face escalating friction with China and Korea in a much more complicated world.

Peter Duus has written extensively on the history of Japanese imperialism and colonialism before World War II and together with Mark Peattie and Ramon Myers co-edited a trilogy of conference volumes on the subject.  His most recent book (edited with Kenji Hasegawa) is Rediscovering America: Japanese Perspectives on the American Century (2011).

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Peter Duus William H. Bonsall Professor of History Emeritus Speaker Stanford University
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Sino-Japanese Rivalry Seminar Series
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Sino-Japanese Rivalry Seminar Series

The historic rivalry between China and Japan, the source of two wars since the late 19th century and the catalyst for the wider war in the Pacific, is once again a matter of growing concern to scholars and policy makers. Why does the past continue to shape the present relationship between these two Asian powers? And can they build a new, more forward-looking, relationship? We examine these and other questions in this seminar series.

Comparative Institutional Analysis: Theory, Corporations and East Asia. Selected Papers of Masahiko Aoki

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This volume collects 22 articles by Masahiko Aoki, selected from writings published over the course of his 45-year academic career. These fascinating essays cover a range of issues, including mechanism design, comparative governance, corporate governance, institutions and institutional change, but are tied together by a focus on East Asia and a comparative institutional framework.

Specific topics include the early stages of mechanism design theory, comparative analysis of vertical, horizontal and modular industrial coordination and its applications, cooperative game-theoretic approaches to the diversity of corporate government structure, the endogenous nature of institutions, and comparative and historical analysis of institutions in Japan, China and Korea.

Students, professors and scholars with an interest in comparative institutional studies and East Asian studies will find this book a useful and illuminating resource.

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Textbooks and Patriotic Education: Wartime Memory Formation in China and Japan

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The treatment of the wartime period in Japan's history textbooks has long been a subject of debate and controversy, even a source of international tension. Since their creation, history textbooks have been used to shape national identity and encourage patriotism. This article, drawing on the comparative study of high school history textbooks in Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and the United States by Stanford's "Divided Memories and Reconciliation" project, compares the treatment of the wartime period in the textbooks of China and Japan. The study found that Japanese textbooks are relatively devoid of overt attempts to promote patriotism and that they contain more information about controversial wartime issues such as the Nanjing Massacre than is widely believed. In contrast, Chinese textbooks, particularly after their revision a decade ago, are consciously aimed at promoting a nationalist view of the past as part of the country's “patriotic education” campaign. The article warns, however, against efforts in Japan to promote a Japanese-style version of patriotic education.

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History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories

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History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories
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December 2011
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North Korea's strange, bloody mistake

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Gi-Wook Shin and David Straub analyze North Korea’s execution of Jang Song-taek and its implications on nuclear negotiation channels. They point out how Kim Jong Un’s leadership purge may prompt China to align more closely with the U.S. and South Korea on their likely push for heightened sanctions in the coming months.
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Southeast Asia in the Year of the Horse: Issues and Prospects for 2014-15

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The Year of the Horse will run (so to speak) from 31 January 2014 to 18 February 2015.  Many domestic, regional, and global issues will occupy the attention of Southeast Asian leaders and societies and their counterparts in the US, China, and Japan among other countries.  In conversation with SEAF director Don Emmerson, Ernie Bower will highlight the most important of these policy issues and their implications.  Possible topics may include the repercussions of Chinese muscle-flexing over the East and South China Sea, political strife in Thailand, quinquennial elections in Indonesia, and Myanmar's leadership of ASEAN including the plan to declare an ASEAN Community in 2015. 
 
Ernest Z. Bower is one of America's leading experts on Southeast Asia, founding president and CEO of the business advisory firm BowerGroupAsia, a former president of the US-ASEAN Business Council, and a policy adviser to many private- and public-sector organizations in the US interested in Southeast Asia.  
 

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Ernest Z. Bower Senior Adviser and Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asian Studies Speaker Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC
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Reports of Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong Un’s uncle, execution may signal unstable regime in North Korea

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The extraordinary removal and subsequent execution of Jang Song-thaek, the uncle and assumed mentor of North Korean President Kim Jong Un, are developments that have surprised analysts worldwide. The unprecedented announcement of Jang’s execution was unusual news from a country that is normally shrouded in secrecy. For the first time in nearly decades, North Korean leadership has overtly admitted to an attempt to overthrow its leadership.

Broadcast on Dec. 12 via the state-run Korean Central News Agency, North Korean leadership denounced Jang as a “traitor” who sought to undermine the regime. Among the long list of alleged crimes, Jang was accused of engineering the disastrous 2009 attempt to overhaul the national currency system and of profiteering from his sponsorship of economic policies similar to China’s. Jang, 67 years of age, was convicted of treason in a special military court and executed on Thursday.

The complete details of Jang’s execution remain unknown, and the U.S. State Department has not been able to independently verify the news. However, the style and scope of the announcement itself suggest that the Kim regime is engaged in a widespread purge, attempting to consolidate the power of the young leader. Differing viewpoints exist as to what these recent events signal, whether it is a portent of increasing instability and tension in the region.  Specialists at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) have offered their analysis to a variety of media outlets.

Shorenstein APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, Associate Director for Research Daniel C. Sneider, Korean Studies Program Associate Director David Straub, and 2013-14 Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies Sunny Seong-Hyon Lee, who have extensive experience with Korea and are often cited as commentators on regional political leadership, have been cited in national and international news reports.

Former Shorenstein APARC Korean Studies Fellow (2010-11) Sang-Hun Choe has written the lead story for the New York Times. Sneider was quoted in the newspaper report in USA Today World. Straub and Lee weigh in on the matter with two other experts in an article in NK News, a news agency at the forefront of North Korean news coverage. In a recent Financial Times Chinese edition, Lee examined why North Korea still looked "normal" after the death of Jang and analyed whether such a facade can be sustainable. On Dec. 12, Shin was interviewed in MK News on Jang’s removal from power, the article is available in Korean only.

Shorenstein APARC will continue to monitor the situation and will provide updated analysis as additional details unfold.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un salutes to the members of the honour guards as he and his uncle, Jang Song Thaek (R), attend a commemoration event at the Cemetery of Fallen Fighters of the Korean People's Army in Pyongyang on July 25, 2013, as part of celebrations ahead of the 60th anniversary marking the end of the Korean War.
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Is a New Round of Economic Reform Kicking Off in China? The Aftermath of the Third Plenum

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At the November 2013 Third Plenum, China’s leaders committed to an ambitious program of economic reform.  Now their challenge is to convert those commitments into a realistic and sustained program of change.  Barry Naughton, just back from fall term at Tsinghua University in Beijing, examines the achievements and obstacles, and discusses how these fit in with the other initiatives of Xi Jinping’s complex emerging agenda.

Barry Naughton is a professor at the University of California, San Diego.  He is one of the world’s top experts on the Chinese economy, and a long-term analyst of Chinese economic policy. Naughton received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 1986.  Naughton was named the So Kuanlok Professor at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS) of the University of California at San Diego in 1998.  He has consulted extensively for the World Bank, as well as for corporate clients.  Naughton is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is a non-resident fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.  

This event is co-sponsored with CEAS and is part of the China under Xi Jinping series.

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Barry Naughton Professor of Chinese Economy Speaker UCSD
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China under Xi Jinping
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