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My argument in this paper is that the people of the People's Republic of China have acquired greater freedoms over the past twenty years, and that if China 's impressive rate of economic development continues,so will their liberties. In the fall of 1996, the journal The National Interest published an article of mine on the prospect for the growth of political and personal freedoms in China. This article contained a prediction that the organization Freedom House would rate China at least "Partly Free" by 2015, and offered evidence in support of that proposition. In the nearly five years since then, events have taken place, both favorable and unfavorable,that bear on my thesis.They are addressed in this text.There is also an analytical change: based on a recalculation, this article projects that China's GDP per capita will reach $7,500 by 2020 in 1998 international dollars. This leads to a revised forecast that Freedom House will rate China at least Partly Free by no later than 2020, rather than 2015 as proposed earlier. (It might appear that the date for China crossing the democracy threshold is slipping one year per year, but that results from the correction and not from a real change in China.) Of course,precision is not possible on such a topic,but the naming of a specific year has a logic and is useful for stimulating debate on a subject of the utmost importance. I do not argue that the path from here to there will be smooth politically,e ither domestically or internationally, but rather that the "end position " (that is, around 2020) will likely see a significant increase in political pluralism and personal liberties in China.

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Henry S. Rowen
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This luncheon comes at a time when the Shorenstein Forum is nurturing a special interest in journalism, and embarking on shared activities with its sister institution at Harvard, the Shorenstein Center on Press, Politics, and Public Policy. The Forum is delighted to welcome this distinguished delegation from the Brookings Institution. ***** THIS LUNCHEON IS BY INVITATION ONLY. *****

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Li Xiaoping Director Speaker Institute of Political and Legal Studies, Moscow
Chen Hao Executive Producer Speaker TVBS, Taiwan's leading cable network
Chris Yeung Chief Political Editor Speaker South China Morning Post
Chungsoo Kim Economic Analyst Speaker JoongAng Ilbo newpaper, South Korea
Alexander Lukin Producer Speaker "Focus", China Central
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Susan V. Lawrence is Beijing Bureau Chief for the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Hong Kong-based weekly newsmagazine wholly owned by Dow Jones & Co. Before joining the Review in 1998, Ms. Lawrence was an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Studies at Harvard University. From 1990 to 1996, Ms. Lawrence was Beijing Bureau Chief for the Washington, D.C.-based newsweekly US News & World Report. From 1989 to 1990, she worked on the foreign desk of US News in Washington, D.C. Ms. Lawrence holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies and an M.A. in Regional Studies-East Asia, both from Harvard University. She was a Harvard-Yenching Institute Scholar at Peking University from 1985 to 1987.

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Susan Lawrence Beijing Bureau Chief Speaker Far Eastern Economic Review
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The Asia/Pacific Research Center welcomes family, friends, colleagues, and students of Michel Oksenberg to celebrate his life.

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Core features of mobility regimes are obscured by models common in comparative research. Party patronage in China is apparent only in the timing of career events. Elites are chosen from among party members, but only some are eventually chosen. Those who join the party while young enter a career path that includes sponsorship for adult education and more likely promotion. While the party's preference for youth from "red" classes has yielded to one for prior education, party sponsorship endures. Because patronage blurs distinctions between politics and merit, it confounds interpretations of returns to individual attributes.

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American Journal of Sociology
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Andrew G. Walder
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Dennis Harter is a career member of the Senior Foreign Service and a Foreign Service Officer (since 1966) specializing in Asian Affairs. From 1968-1970, he served as a district senior advisor in the Mekong Delta, then as deputy director for Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia Affairs in the late 1970s. He has served as director of Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam Affairs during the period of normalization of relations with Vietnam, and as deputy chief of Mission (Deputy Ambassador) from August 1997 to the present. He also served in Hong Kong twice; in Taiwan and Indonesia, and was Consul General in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China from 1989-1993.

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Dennis Harter Deputy Chief of Mission (Deputy Ambassador) Vietnam
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Twenty years ago, there was little to no private wealth in China, yet today the average personal net worth of the wealthiest 50 entrepreneurs is over $200 million. The Communist Party's survival depends on China's successful economic integration into the world trading system, and it can not achieve this without entrepreneurship on a large scale. Hence the Party's pragmatic philosophy: to allow a few individuals to get rich in the belief that they will play a significant part in developing the rest of the country. Who are the 47 men and 3 women on this year's top 50 list? In what industries have their companies arisen? How has the composition of the ranking changed during the past 2 years? And what do their stories illustrate about changes in China's climate for entrepreneurship?

Rupert Hoogewerf is a freelance journalist whose research into the Top 50 wealthiest entrepreneurs of China was published for the second year running in Forbes magazine. Prior to journalism, Mr. Hoogewerf worked for 7 years with Arthur Andersen in London and Shanghai. Graduating from Durham University in Chinese and Japanese, he is based in London and Shanghai.

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Rupert Hoogewerf Freelance Journalist
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Jaime A. FlorCruz Former TIME Magazine Beijing Bureau Chief and current Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow Council on Foreign Relations
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Lowell Dittmer Professor Panelist University of California, Berkeley

Department of Political Science
Stanford University
616 Serra Street
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics
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Jean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a Senior Fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Professor Oi is also the founding Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the Department of Government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

Her work focuses on comparative politics, with special expertise on political economy and the process of reform in transitional systems. Oi has written extensively on China's rural politics and political economy. Her State and Peasant in Contemporary China (University of California Press, 1989) examined the core of rural politics in the Mao period—the struggle over the distribution of the grain harvest—and the clientelistic politics that ensued. Her Rural China Takes Off (University of California Press, 1999 and Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 1999) examines the property rights necessary for growth and coined the term “local state corporatism" to describe local-state-led growth that has been the cornerstone of China’s development model. 

She has edited a number of conference volumes on key issues in China’s reforms. The first was Growing Pains: Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation (Brookings Institution Press, 2010), co-edited with Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, which examined the earlier phases of reform. Most recently, she co-edited with Thomas Fingar, Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future (Stanford University Press, 2020). The volume examines the difficult choices and tradeoffs that China leaders face after forty years of reform, when the economy has slowed and the population is aging, and with increasing demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits.

Oi also works on the politics of corporate restructuring, with a focus on the incentives and institutional constraints of state actors. She has published three edited volumes related to this topic: one on China, Going Private in China: The Politics of Corporate Restructuring and System Reform (Shorenstein APARC, 2011); one on Korea, co-edited with Byung-Kook Kim and Eun Mee Kim, Adapt, Fragment, Transform: Corporate Restructuring and System Reform in Korea (Shorenstein APARC, 2012); and a third on Japan, Syncretism: The Politics of Economic Restructuring and System Reform in Japan, co-edited with Kenji E. Kushida and Kay Shimizu (Brookings Institution, 2013). Other more recent articles include “Creating Corporate Groups to Strengthen China’s State-Owned Enterprises,” with Zhang Xiaowen, in Kjeld Erik Brodsgard, ed., Globalization and Public Sector Reform in China (Routledge, 2014) and "Unpacking the Patterns of Corporate Restructuring during China's SOE Reform," co-authored with Xiaojun Li, Economic and Political Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2018.

Oi continues her research on rural finance and local governance in China. She has done collaborative work with scholars in China, including conducting fieldwork on the organization of rural communities, the provision of public goods, and the fiscal pressures of rapid urbanization. This research is brought together in a co-edited volume, Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization (Brookings Institution Shorenstein APARC Series, 2017), with Karen Eggleston and Wang Yiming. Included in this volume is her “Institutional Challenges in Providing Affordable Housing in the People’s Republic of China,” with Niny Khor. 

As a member of the research team who began studying in the late 1980s one county in China, Oi with Steven Goldstein provides a window on China’s dramatic change over the decades in Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County (Stanford University Press, 2018). This volume assesses the later phases of reform and asks how this rural county has been able to manage governance with seemingly unchanged political institutions when the economy and society have transformed beyond recognition. The findings reveal a process of adaptive governance and institutional agility in the way that institutions actually operate, even as their outward appearances remain seemingly unchanged.

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Director, China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Jean Oi Professor Panelist
Michel Oksenberg Professor Panelist
Orville Schell Dean Panelist School of Journalism, University of California, Berkeley

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor
Acting Faculty Director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Andrew G. Walder is the Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor at Stanford University, where he is also a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Previously, he served as Chair of the Department of Sociology, Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, and Head of the Division of International, Comparative and Area Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences.

Walder has long specialized in the sources of conflict, stability, and change in communist regimes and their successor states. His publications on Mao-era China have ranged from the social and economic organization of that early period to the popular political mobilization of the late 1960s and the subsequent collapse and rebuilding of the Chinese party-state. His publications on post-Mao China have focused on the evolving pattern of stratification, social mobility, and inequality, with an emphasis on variation in the trajectories of post-state socialist systems. His current research is on the growth and evolution of China’s large modern corporations, both state and private, after the shift away from the Soviet-inspired command economy.

Walder joined the Stanford faculty in 1997. He received his Ph.D. in sociology at the University of Michigan in 1981 and taught at Columbia University before moving to Harvard in 1987. From 1995 to 1997, he headed the Division of Social Sciences at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Walder has received fellowships and grants from the Guggenheim Foundation, the National Science Foundation, the National Academy of Sciences, the Henry Luce Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. His books and articles have won awards from the American Sociological Association, the Association for Asian Studies, and the Social Science History Association. He is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

His recent and forthcoming books include  Fractured Rebellion: The Beijing Red Guard Movement  (Harvard University Press, 2009);  China Under Mao: A Revolution Derailed  (Harvard University Press, 2015);  Agents of Disorder: Inside China’s Cultural Revolution  (Harvard University Press, 2019); and  A Decade of Upheaval: The Cultural Revolution in Feng County  (Princeton University Press, 2021) (with Dong Guoqiang); and Civil War in Guangxi: The Cultural Revolution on China’s Southern Periphery (Stanford University Press, 2023).  

His recent articles include “After State Socialism: Political Origins of Transitional Recessions.” American Sociological Review  80, 2 (April 2015) (with Andrew Isaacson and Qinglian Lu); “The Dynamics of Collapse in an Authoritarian Regime: China in 1967.”  American Journal of Sociology  122, 4 (January 2017) (with Qinglian Lu); “The Impact of Class Labels on Life Chances in China,”  American Journal of Sociology  124, 4 (January 2019) (with Donald J. Treiman); and “Generating a Violent Insurgency: China’s Factional Warfare of 1967-1968.” American Journal of Sociology 126, 1 (July 2020) (with James Chu).

Director Emeritus, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director Emeritus, Division of International, Comparative and Area Studies
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Andrew Walder Professor Panelist
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