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The United States and Japan celebrated the 50th anniversary of the current US-Japan security treaty in January 2010, despite several dark clouds on the horizon. Both countries have seen transitions to Democrats in power in 2009 that led to new political debates over security practices. Is the future actually as rosy as portrayed by diplomats on both sides in this "anniversary year"? Relations will probably continue their rocky course in the coming months, but in the medium term the underlying logic for close US-Japan security cooperation, and for continuing development of defense capabilities in Asia for both countries, is quite strong.

Andrew Oros is a specialist on the international and comparative politics of East Asia and the advanced industrial democracies, with an emphasis on contending approaches to managing security and on the linkage between domestic and international politics. He is the author of Normalizing Japan: Politics, Identity, and the Evolution of Security Practice (Stanford University Press, 2008) and the co-editor of and contributor to Japan's New Defense Establishment: Institutions, Capabilities, and Implications (Stimson Center, 2007), Can Japan Come Back? (Pacific Council, 2003), and Culture in World Politics (Macmillan Press, 1998). His latest work is as co-author of the forthcoming Global Security Watch: Japan (Praeger Press, 2010). He also has shared his research in over a dozen scholarly articles, numerous mass-media quotations, and lectures to policymakers in Washington, DC, Berlin, Tokyo, Beijing, and elsewhere.

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Andrew Oros Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies Speaker Washington College
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Karen Eggleston
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In early spring, historic health reform passes, extending insurance to millions of uninsured. Despite problems with workplace-based coverage, controversy over government subsidies for insurance premiums, and disparities across a large and diverse nation, dramatic shift to a single-payer system was seen as impractical.

Instead, reforms focus on expanding current social insurance programs as well as new initiatives to cover the uninsured, improve quality, and control spending. They provide a basic floor, subsidized for the poorest, but preserve consumer freedom to choose in health care. No government body dictates choice of doctor or hospital; investor-owned and private not-for-profits compete alongside government-run providers like community health centers and rural hospitals.

Left to be addressed in later phases are the difficult questions of how to slow the relentless pace of health care spending increases -- driven in part by technological change and population aging, but also perverse incentives embedded in fee-for-service payment and fragmented delivery. Pushed through despite multiple crises confronting the leadership, the final landmark health reform works in conjunction with measures enacted as part of the fiscal stimulus package to strengthen the healthcare system. Some provisions take effect immediately; others will take many years to unfold.

President Obama’s triumph on his top domestic priority? Actually, there were no votes along partisan lines, no controversy over abortion. I am describing health reform in China, which was announced almost exactly a year ago.

We do not hear much about the parallels in the US and Chinese social policy. But we cannot fully understand each other if we ignore these commonalities. We do not hear much about those who, in both societies, have been rendered destitute merely because they or a family member became sick or injured in a system with a social safety net full of gaping holes.

It will surprise many Americans to know that government financing as a share of total health spending was lower in socialist China over the last decade than in the United States. Now China has pledged about US$124 billion over 3 years to expand basic health insurance, strengthen public health and primary care, and reform public hospitals.

In China, the injustice of differential access to life-saving healthcare had sparked cases of social unrest. The April 2009 reform announcement was the culmination of years of post-SARS (2003) soul searching for a healthcare system befitting China’s dynamically transforming society. Special interests block change. (Sound familiar?) The CPC Central Committee and the State Council acknowledge that successful health reform will be “an arduous and long-term task”.  

If the US can pass sweeping health reform despite an unprecedented financial crisis, and China can envision universal health coverage for 1.3 billion while “getting old before getting rich,” then together we should be able to look past our many differences to focus on our common interests. Our two proud nations must work together to confront numerous challenges, such as upholding regional stability (e.g. on the Korean peninsula); redressing global economic imbalances (increasing health insurance can help spur China towards more domestic consumption); and investing in “green tech” for a warming planet and “grey tech” for an aging society.

 

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When searching for insights about how other countries deal with similar challenges, Americans often look to Europe and Canada. Rarer is the comparison to counterparts across the Pacific. Yet President Obama has clearly articulated the vision of the US as a Pacific Nation, and there are developments around the Pacific Rim that merit consideration in our debates.  

Australia pioneered cost-effectiveness in health care purchasing, while the US continues to debate whether cost should be part of comparative effectiveness research and policy decisions.

Both Japan and South Korea, like Germany, have enacted long term care insurance to smooth the transition to an aging society. Their experiences might be fruitful as we implement the first national government-run long-term care insurance program, a little-heralded component of the newly passed legislation (and a fitting legacy of Senator Edward Kennedy).

Japan and Singapore provide universal coverage to older populations than ours with health systems that, although surprisingly different from each other in terms of public financing and role of market forces, both ranked among the best in the world -- and far higher than the US -- in the World Health Organization’s ranking of health systems in the year 2000. Although one may quibble with the ranking, it is indisputable that Japan spends a much smaller share of GDP on healthcare than the US does, despite being one of the oldest and longest-lived societies in the history of the world and having (like the US) a fee-for-service payment system.

Japan and South Korea are also democracies, where health policies occasionally engender heated debates. In South Korea, physicians went on nationwide strike three times to oppose the separation of prescribing from dispensing. Although Japan’s incremental reforms rarely spur such drama, the passions aroused by end-of-life care – embodied in the bizarre “death panels” controversy in the US health reform debate of 2009 – has its counterpart in the bitter nickname for Japan’s separate insurance plan for the oldest old: “hurry-up-and-die” insurance.

Yet Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong all offer health systems that provide reasonable risk protection and quality of care for populations older than ours, with a diverse range of government and market roles in financing and delivery, while spending far less per capita than the US.

No system has all the answers. But the US and our neighbors across the vast Pacific have a common interest in sharing what we’ve found that works for health reform. Despite divergence in our political and economic systems, we all value long, healthy lives for ourselves and our children -- and we’re united in health reforms that try to further that goal.

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Peter M. Beck
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North Korea is usually described as the “most isolated country on earth,” its people effectively cut off from the outside world. My research tells a different story—that perhaps one million North Koreans are secretly listening to foreign radio broadcasts. The number of listeners is believed to be growing, which is all the more amazing when one considers that North Korean authorities only distribute radios with fixed dials, assiduously jam foreign broadcasts, and send citizens caught listening to foreign radio to the country’s notorious gulags for as long as ten years.

Over a dozen radio stations from the United States, South Korea, and Japan currently broadcast to North Korea. Voice of America (VOA), one of the most popular stations, has been broadcasting to the North since 1942, while the equally popular Radio Free Asia (RFA) began its Korean broadcasts soon after being created by Congress in 1997. VOA focuses on news of the United States and the world, while RFA concentrates on the two Koreas. RFA also carries commentaries by two Korean speakers who grew up in the former Soviet Union and Romania. RFA serves as a substitute for the lack of a “free” station in North Korea, but unlike a typical “surrogate station”—which would be staffed largely by émigrés—RFA only employs one North Korean defector.

South Korea’s “Global Korean Network” has been declining in popularity since it ceased to focus on North Korea and adopted a decidedly soft approach after the election of Kim Dae-jung as president in 1997. However, three stations run by North Korean defectors have sprouted up over the past few years, led by Free North Korea Radio (FRNK). These stations employ stringers in North Korea who can communicate by cell phone or smuggle out interviews through China. As a result, information is flowing in and out of the North more rapidly than ever. For example, when major economic reforms were undertaken in 2002, it was months before the rest of the world knew. In contrast, when the regime launched a disastrous currency reform on November 30, 2009, FNKR filed a report within hours.

How do we know that North Koreans are actually listening to foreign broadcasts? First, on dozens of occasions, authorities in Pyongyang have used their own media to attack foreign broadcasters. The North reserves the insult “reptile” exclusively to describe foreign broadcasters. In late March 2010, the regime likened defector broadcasters to “human trash.” Ironically, this diatribe also contained the first official mention of the currency revaluation, so broadcasters have clearly struck a nerve. If they were in fact irrelevant, the regime would ignore them instead of lavishing them with free publicity.

Broadcasters to North Korea frequently receive heartbreaking messages from North Koreans in China, thanking them for their efforts. One listener described RFA as “our one ray of hope.” More importantly, over the past several years, thousands of North Korean defectors, refugees, and visitors to China have been interviewed about their listening habits. An unpublished 2009 survey of North Koreans in China found that over 20 percent had listened to the banned broadcasts, and almost all of them had shared the information with family members and friends. Several other surveys confirm these findings. While we cannot generalize the listening habits of a self-selected group to the general population, it is not unreasonable to conclude that there are more than a million surreptitious listeners. The North Korean regime is not only losing its monopoly on the control of information; defectors also cite foreign radio listening as one of the leading motivations to defect.

Despite valiant efforts and growing impact, much more could be done to improve broadcasting to North Korea. VOA and RFA only broadcast five hours a day, and the defector stations limp along with shoestring budgets, due to a pervasive indifference within South Korea.

President Obama’s human rights envoy for North Korea, Robert King, has pledged to expand funding for Korean broadcasting. For its part, Pyongyang claims that foreign broadcasts are part of the Obama administration’s “hostile policy” toward the North. Only time will tell if these efforts will lead to change we can believe in—both in Washington and Pyongyang.

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Shorenstein APARC Dispatches are regular bulletins designed exclusively for our friends and supporters. Written by center faculty and scholars, Shorenstein APARC Dispatches deliver timely, succinct analysis on current events and trends in Asia, often discussing their potential implications for business.

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Professor Yuan Ming was originally trained as a student of western language and literature at Peking University. Prior to her graduate work, she spent eight years in the rural areas in Northwest China. China's Reform and Open Door policy allowed her to do her graduate work in the Law Department of Peking University and then to visit these distinguished institutions abroad: She was a visiting scholar at U.C. Berkeley from 1983 to 1985 and a senior associate member at the St. Antony's College in Oxford University from 1989 to 1990. Since 1995, she was invited and did research at the Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. She travels a lot and is a frequent speaker at many international gatherings such as the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Trilateral Commission, the Club of Rome, etc.

Professor Yuan Ming teaches the History of International Relations and Western Classics of International Relations at Peking University. She is also the vice-dean of the School of International Studies and the director of the Center for American Studies at the University. Her publications include Cross Century Assignment: the International Relations Studies in China and A History of International Relations ( 1648-1989), which is one of the leading publications and textbooks in China. She is also the co-editor of Sino-American Relations (1945-1955); the Golden Age of U.S.-China-Japan Relations.

Professor Yuan Ming has organized many international conferences in China, and has wide links in Asia, North America, Europe and Oceania.

Professor Yuan Ming is a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and a member of its Foreign Relations Committee. She sits on the boards of a number of institutions in China. She was also the trustee of the Asia Society in New York (1998-2004). In 2004, she joined the International Advisory Board of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

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Yuan Ming Professor, History of International Relations and Western Classics of International Relations Speaker Peking University
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Wataru Ishii, "Economic Development of Zhejiang Province"

Zhejiang Province is located in the southern part of the Yangtze River Delta on the southeast coast of China. Before the economic reform started in 1978 all over the country, Zhejiang Province's GDP and GDP per capita were about 15th among other provinces. Since then it has achieved enormous economic development and now ranks 4th in provincial GDP and GDP per capita, just after politically more autonomous metropolitans of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin.

While succeeding in maintaining economic development for three decades since the economic reform began, Zhejiang Province is now facing many difficulties, such as unfavorable influence of the international financial crisis in 2008. From the start of economic reform local governments have played an important role in developing local economy. Can local governments help economy in the region keep thriving in future? If so, what kind of roles should they play?

Mitsue Kurihara, "Issues of Japanese VC Industry from the Perspective of Exit Activities"

Exit strategies of venture capitals (VCs) are one of the key factors in developing the VC industry in each country. Exit strategies in VCs are ways to transfer their owned stocks and to obtain high rate of returns. Exit strategies are one of the reasons for the Japanese VC industry being so small and low performing. However, Japanese VC exit conditions have not been completely clarified.

Kurihara will focus on the VC's exit strategies and markets to explain the characteristics and problems of the Japanese VC industry.

Boyoung Shin, "Rising Issues on Multi-Cultural Families in Korea"

Today, a portion of the Korean population consists of foreign residents - currently at 2.2% and growing at a very rapid rate. Korea is no longer a single-ethnic nation, one in which they claim as the purest country in the world. This long time existing sense of nationalism for Koreans has to now confront new challenges. The growing number of foreign residents proves that Korea is now in a remarkable turning point for vast transition in the form of a multi-cultural nation. Shin's research studies the issues of a multi-cultural family and it's significance in adequately coping with the consequences that will soon follow in Korean society.

Suguru Taguchi, "Human Computer Interaction - Focusing on the Input Interface"

Machines and computers have become increasingly convenient and sophisticated, yet, at the same time, more complicated. The interaction between human and computer has an important role in operating these complicated machines. Regarding input interface, there has been a boom in the natural user interface (NUI) that detects movement of the body, including the input interface of the touch screen system.

Taguchi analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of input interface, and argues whether NUI, which uses an intuitive operation, can be used as an input interface in a wide range of fields in the future.

 



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Wataru Ishii is a Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2009–10 and 2010–11. He is chief staff of the International Relations Division of Shizuoka Prefecture Government (SPG) in Japan where he has worked for the past 20 years. Before joining Shorenstein APARC, he worked in several departments of SPG, including taxation, tourism promotion, and public relations. He graduated from Kanazawa University with a BA in liberal arts.

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Mitsue Kurihara is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2008-09 and 2009-10. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, she worked at the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) for twenty years. She has comprehensive experience in policy-based financing, in addition to having been involved in the merger of Japan Development Bank with Hokkaido-Tohoku Development Finance Public Corporation into DBJ during her term in the Treasury Department. Over the past five years, she has leveraged her wide network of regional bank and enterprise connections to provide advice on various industrial restructuring and other M&A deals. Kurihara’s latest position at the DBJ was as director in the Department for Business Development (in charge of advisory services for mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, and corporate strategy planning). 

Kurihara was also assigned for a time at the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. She graduated from Hitotsubashi University with a BA in law.

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Boyoung Shin is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2008-09 and 2009-10. Boyoung graduated from the University of Southern California (BA in Econ) in 1990 and received his MBA from Yonsei University. He also has military experience as a Marine Officer serving 3.5 years. He had been elected as a Kyong-gi provincial council man twice. There, he had roles of the Chairman of the Special Committee of Budgets and Accounts, the Chairman of the Special Committee of Free Trade Agreements, the Chairman of the Intelligence Committee and others.

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Boyoung Shin Kyungmin College Speaker
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Suguru Taguchi is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2009-10. He joined the Japan Patent Office (JPO) in 1996 and has worked as a patent examiner, handling patent applications mainly in the field of logistics. In 2001, he was in charge of international affairs, especially with respect to the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement. In 2007, he was also in charge of policy planning and law amendment with respect to patent attorneys. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a BS in Mechanical Engineering.

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Suguru Taguchi Japan Patent Office Speaker
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Background: The literature comparing private not-for-profit, for-profit, and government providers mostly relies on empirical evidence from high-income and established market economies. Studies from developing and transitional economies remain scarce, especially regarding patient case-mix and quality of care in public and private hospitals, even though countries such as China have expanded a mixed-ownership approach to service delivery. The purpose of this study is to compare the operations and performance of public and private hospitals in Guangdong Province, China, focusing on differences in patient case-mix and quality of care.

Methods: We analyze survey data collected from 362 government-owned and private hospitals in Guangdong Province in 2005, combining mandatorily reported administrative data with a survey instrument designed for this study. We use univariate and multi-variate regression analyses to compare hospital characteristics and to identify factors associated with simple measures of structural quality and patient outcomes.

Results: Compared to private hospitals, government hospitals have a higher average value of total assets, more pieces of expensive medical equipment, more employees, and more physicians (controlling for hospital beds, urban location, insurance network, and university affiliation). Government and for-profit private hospitals do not statistically differ in total staffing, although for-profits have proportionally more support staff and fewer medical
professionals. Mortality rates for non-government non-profit and for-profit hospitals do not statistically differ from those of government hospitals of similar size, accreditation level, and patient mix.

Conclusions: In combination with other evidence on health service delivery in China, our results suggest that changes in ownership type alone are unlikely to dramatically improve or harm overall quality. System incentives need to be designed to reward desired hospital performance and protect vulnerable patients, regardless of hospital ownership type.

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In this colloquium, we hear about Tsinghua University researchers' studies on physician-patient trust and satisfaction with health care in China. Professor Shen describes her research on “Social distance and its impact on patients’ trust in their providers in transitional China.” Using 2008 data from over 3500 patients that includes unique measures of patient trust – such as whether or not patients followed doctor recommendations for treatment – Dr. Shen and colleagues find large differences in trust, with patients of lower socio-economic status displaying higher trust in doctors than other groups. Analyses also examine how trust is related to satisfaction with health services, and how patient dissatisfaction in China compares to that in other countries’ health systems. Related research explores patients’ and providers’ attitudes towards separation of prescribing and dispensing, a key component of the 2009 health reforms, and how patient mistrust of providers stems from concerns about both competence and profiteering from overprescribing.

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Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E-301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-4934 (650) 723-6530
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Qunhong Shen Associate Professor Speaker Tsinghua University School of Public Policy and Management
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Focus

In 2008, for the first time a majority of the world's population lived in cities. Rapidly rising standards of living and migration are contributing to an unprecedented worldwide surge in urbanization--in China alone, if trends continue, by 2025 more than 220 cities will each have more than one million inhabitants. The explosive growth of cities around the Pacific has widespread implications for energy use and has led to the demand for cities to become both smart and green.

But while billions of dollars of investments are pouring into urban energy solutions, and around the Pacific "low-carbon cities" and "eco-cities" are moving center stage, there are enormous challenges (and opportunities) facing the effective application of information technologies (IT), other innovative technologies and industrial growth.

The intersection of IT and environmental sustainability on the urban scale will require a complex integration of expertise, tools, and know-how from multiple disciplines--from building design and real estate development, to mobility and water systems, IT hardware and software, and energy providers. Although innovations in strategies and implementation are evolving quickly in pockets of excellence around the globe, early results have been highly uneven. Frameworks for understanding and analysis are still fragmented, innovative design and implementation rapidly changing, and best practices have yet to be defined.

Purpose
Led by SPRIE at Stanford University, this conference aims to gather an elite group of experts, decision makers, and thought leaders from across disciplines and geographical boundaries to focus on smart green cities around the Pacific. Participants will:

  • Pursue a deeper understanding of the complex interactions among the key drivers that impact the extent that cities are green and smart
  • Focus on core challenges of capitalizing on opportunities and overcoming obstacles--technological, economic, behavioral or political
  • Explore what innovations in strategy or practice are leading to positive outcomes, including human livability, financial viability, economic vitality, and environmental sustainability
  • Discuss implications for the evolution of markets and development of industries 
  • Lay the groundwork for future actions, such as industry strategies, research agendas, and policy recommendations

Participants
"Smart Green Cities" will invite a select group of government, business, and academic leaders from the United States and Asia for two days of expert presentations and fruitful discussion at Stanford University. The summit will enable participants to better lead to improved strategy, action, and outcomes for building the next generation of smart green cities.

Agenda
Agenda is preliminary and not all speakers are confirmed. Please download below

 

Sponsors
Many thanks to our sponsors for making this event possible. 

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John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building
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Anemia and malnutrition stunt the cognitive development of children in poor, rural areas of China. A Stanford-PRC research team led by FSI Senior Fellow Scott Rozelle, co-director of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP), found answers to help give millions of kids a better future. And Beijing is already taking action.

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David Straub
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Ambassador Stephen W. Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, spoke March 4 at Shorenstein APARC to members of the Stanford community and invited guests. Bosworth had just returned from a round of consultations the previous week with foreign counterparts in Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo.

In his off-the-record remarks at Shorenstein APARC, Bosworth reviewed the North Korean nuclear weapons problem since his appointment as Special Representative a year ago. He discussed recent developments, including his own visit to Pyongyang in December 2009, and noted his talks with his Six Party Talks counterparts. The Six Party Talks are hosted by the People's Republic of China, and include the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia. These talks are aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons development in exchange for security guarantees and a lifting of international sanctions.

Ambassador Bosworth is concurrently dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. A former career diplomat, he served as U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines and South Korea. During this visit to Stanford, he also consulted with Stanford policy experts, including George P. Shultz, the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution; William J. Perry, the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor at FSI and Engineering; and Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost.

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