The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has challenged itself is to become a single integrated community by 2015.  The prospect has raised high hopes inside the region.  Will they be met?  Efforts to build the community have intensified, yet the clock ticks and the deadline looms.  Although the result will not match what local enthusiasts of regional unification want to see, but it will likely exceed the expectations of skeptical outsiders.  ASEAN is the linchpin of East Asian regionalism, by design and by default.  What happens to the Association over the next several years has far-reaching implications for the United States, China, and not least for the states and peoples of Southeast Asia.  In his talk, Prof. Pongsudhirak will tease out these dynamics, assess their significance, and explore possible futures beyond 2015.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak heads the Institute of Security and International Studies and teaches international political economy at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.  In 2010 he was an FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor at Stanford and, in spring 2011, a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.  He has written many articles, chapters, and books on ASEAN and East Asian affairs, and on Thai politics, political economy, and foreign policy.  He has worked for The Nation newspaper (Bangkok), The Economist Intelligence Unit, and Independent Economic Analysis (London).  He currently serves on the editorial boards of Asian Politics & Policy, Contemporary Southeast Asia, the Journal of Current Southeast Asian Studies, and South East Asia Research.  His degrees are from the London School of Economics (PhD), Johns Hopkins University (School of Advanced International Studies, MA), and the University of California, Santa Barbara (BA). 

A series of events over the last few years, including attempts to deny non-Muslim rights to use the term "Allah," arson attacks on Christian churches, curbs on conversions of Muslims, and confiscation of bibles, alert us to disconcerting trends that have emerged in Muslim-Christian relations in multicultural Malaysia.  The purpose of this presentation is to analyze the underlying drivers behind these events, and to understand how and why the Christian community has mobilized in recent years in the face of perceived constriction of religious space.

Joseph Chinyong Liow is Associate Dean and Professor of Comparative and International Politics at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.  He was a visiting scholar at Stanford in 2007.  Among his forthcoming publications are “Malaysia’s 2008 General Election: Understanding the New Media Factor,” Pacific Review; “Creating Cadres:  Mobilization, Activism, and the Youth Wing of the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party,” Pacific Affairs; and “Islamist Ambitions, Political Change, and the Price of Power:  Recent Successes and Challenges for the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party,” Journal of Islamic Studies.  Earlier works include Islam, Education, and Reform in Southern Thailand: Tradition and Transformation (2009); Piety and Politics:  Islamism in Contemporary Malaysia (2009); and Islam in Southeast Asia (co-ed., 4 vols, 2009).  His PhD is from the London School of Economics.

KSP's 2011–12 Koret Fellow, recently retired Korean senior career diplomat Ambassador Joon-woo Park, will discuss the U.S. role in current territorial disputes in East Asia. The disputes, which threaten peace and stability in the region and could result in conflict among major powers, have their origin in the incomplete settlement of the Pacific War overseen by the United States. Ambassador Park argues that the United States thus shares responsibility for the current situation. He will review the status of the major territorial disputes in East Asia and explain why the United States has a significant role to play in their peaceful resolution and in promoting cooperative and friendly relations among the countries of the region.

As a career diplomat, Ambassador Park served in numerous key posts, including those of ambassador to the EU and to Singapore and presidential advisor on foreign affairs. Park worked closely for over twenty years with Ban Ki-moon, the former Korean diplomat who is now the United Nations secretary-general.

Ambassador Park also served for seven years at the Korean embassies in Tokyo and Beijing. During his tenure as director general of the Korean foreign ministry’s Asian and Pacific Affairs Bureau, he handled sensitive, longstanding issues relating to regional history, such as the depiction of historical events in Japanese textbooks and the treatment of the history of the Goguryeo kingdom in China’s Northeast Project.

The Koret Fellowship has been made possible by the generous support of the Koret Foundation. The Fellowship’s purpose is to promote intellectual diversity and breadth in KSP by bringing leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to study U.S.-Korea relations. Fellows conduct their own research on the bilateral relationship, with an emphasis on contemporary relations, with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.

The Asia Pacific Observatory (APO) on Health Systems and Policies was established in June 2011. It is a collaborative partnership of interested governments, international agencies, foundations, civil society, and the research community. Modeled on the European Observatory of the same name, the APO has as its main function the collection and analysis of information and research evidence on health care systems, policies, and reforms, with the aim of making this knowledge widely available and easily accessible throughout the Asia Pacific Region; it will also draw cross-country lessons and disseminate these in formats that can be directly used for policymaking.

This presentation will trace the history underlying the creation of the Observatory and indicate its objectives, organizational structure, and proposed modes of operation. It will describe the challenges of attempting to bring a wide range of stakeholders together in support of a regional collaborative research effort. It will also touch on ways that research entities located outside the Asia Pacific region might interact with the APO.

L. Richard Meyers was employed by the World Bank for two decades managing teams that carried out World Bank health sector projects and analytical work in a number of countries in East Asia. He directed a team that produced the first comprehensive health sector review for Vietnam, as well as the first Vietnam National Health Survey.  He also led a team that produced the most comprehensive and empirically-based external analysis to date of the rural health sector in China. More recently he has worked with the European Health Observatory, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, the WHO Western Pacific and South Asia regional offices, and other stakeholders to facilitate the creation of the Asia Pacific Observatory.

Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America's high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.  

A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia, the forefront of a phenomenon of longer life expectancy and declining birthrates that together yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another couple of decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also is confronting a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face different demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for global competition.

The third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue will focus on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which are facing similar problems. Questions to be addressed include:

• What are the inter-relationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, savings rates, and public and private intergenerational transfers?
• How and why do policy responses to population aging differ in Japan, South Korea, and across different regions of China?
• What are the effects of demographic change on national institutions such as employment practices, pension and welfare systems, and financial systems?
• What policies can or should be pursued to influence future outcomes?
• How will demographic change affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?
• How have patterns of migration impacted society and culture in East Asia, in comparative perspective?
• How will demographic change influence the movement of people across the region and the prevalence of multicultural families?
• What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from each other to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) established the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue in 2009 to facilitate conversation about current Asia-Pacific issues with far-reaching global implications. Scholars from Stanford University and various Asian countries start each session of the two-day event with stimulating, brief presentations, which are followed by engaging, off-the-record discussion. Each Dialogue closes with a public symposium and reception, and a final report is published on the Shorenstein APARC website.

Previous Dialogues have brought together a diverse range of experts and opinion leaders from Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, India, Australia, and the United States. The first Dialogue examined the global environmental and economic impacts of energy usage in Asia and the United States. It also explored the challenges posed by competition for resources and the possibilities for cooperating to develop sustainable forms of energy and better consumption practices. Last year’s Dialogue considered the question of building an East Asian Community similar in concept to the European Union. Participants discussed existing organizations, such as ASEAN and APEC, and the economic, policy, and security implications of creating an integrated East Asia regional structure.

The annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko.

Indonesia’s growing economic and political strengths are drawing a range of responses, from the optimism of many investors to the pessimism of some scholars. In this Presidential Distinguished Lecture, presented at Singapore Management University, Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson offers a balanced view somewhere between these two extremes. His tilt is positive, however: The success of dynamic and democratic Indonesia is not assured, but on balance the garuda's rise is good news not only for Indonesians, but for the larger world as well. 

Emmerson’s lecture draws on data from an April 2011 senior executive survey conducted in Jakarta by the risk management firm CastleAsia (see attached handout).

Video and photos of Dr. Emmerson courtesy Singapore Management University.