James Ockey in residence as 2012 Lee Kong Chian Fellow
Stanford expert: Asia's year in review
The past year unfolded with Japan’s unprecedented triple disaster and closed with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s historic trip to Myanmar. Moving into 2012, Europe’s economy creaks along uncertainly and China gears up for a major leadership change. In an interview with the Ukranian magazine Glavred, political science professor Phillip Lipscy discusses landmark Asian economic and political events of 2011, and what they could mean in the coming year.
What was the most significant event in terms of Asia’s economy in 2011?
The March 11 Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami: Besides the tragic loss of life and property, the disaster disrupted global supply chains and plunged the Japanese economy into a recession. The nuclear meltdown in Fukushima also led many countries to question the future of nuclear energy—this will have long-lasting consequences for global energy markets and efforts to deal with climate change.
What was the most significant political event?
Signs of political opening in Burma/Myanmar could have profound consequences not only for that country but for the rest of Asia as well. Hillary Clinton became the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit the country in 50 years. Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from detention and the National League for Democracy has re-registered as a political party. If this leads to democratization, it will be remembered as an important turning point.
What new policy and economic trends appeared in 2011? Which of them will continue into the coming year?
There seems to be a subtle shift in views towards China's economy. Chinese government officials are deeply concerned about the "middle income trap." China has reached a level of development where many countries saw their economic growth slow down sharply. Rising incomes are eroding China's advantage in low-cost manufacturing. There is much talk of multinational companies relocating their operations to even cheaper countries, such as Vietnam. This is an important transition for China, and it will remain an important issue in coming years.
In terms of people, who do you feel was the most notable, and who was
the most disappointing this past year?
The people of Japan, who responded with remarkable perseverance, order, and discipline to such a tragic natural disaster.
The most disappointing were the political leaders of Japan, who could not set aside
their differences and come together for the sake of their country.
Will China continue to spread its influence in 2012, and might any countries oppose this process?
China is now the second largest economy in the world and an important military power. It is inevitable that China will rise in international stature and influence. However, Chinese leaders also face some important challenges—rising inequality, an overheated housing market, and bad loans in its financial system. The focus of international attention should be on integrating China into the world order as a peaceful, responsible stakeholder—not on confrontation.
What impact could the economic crisis in Europe have on the economics and international policy of the Asia-Pacific region?
If the financial crisis in Europe is mismanaged, nobody will escape the consequences. Europe is a crucial export market for Asian countries, and European financial institutions are major lenders to emerging economies in the region. Equally as important, repeated financial crises and political mismanagement in the United States, Japan, and Europe could begin to undermine perceptions of democratic government and capitalism.
What will be most important event in Asia next year?
China's leadership transition, particularly given the many immediate challenges the country faces.
Identity Politics in a Muslim-Majority Democracy: Explaining Communal Appeals in Indonesian Election Campaigns, 2009-2011
Despite the many benefits of democracy, some scholars believe that introducing elections in ethnically divided states can lead to the politicization of identity and to ethnic conflict. Yet few scholars have explored what compels politicians to mobilize around identity in the first place. In search of an answer, Jeremy Menchik and George Washington University doctoral student Colm Fox compiled the only known dataset of campaign advertisements—over 5,000 political banners, posters, and stickers—across hundreds of electoral districts in the world’s largest Muslim-majority democracy, Indonesia. They coded these advertisements for the use of religious, ethnic, nationalist, party, and regional symbols in order to then explain their variation. Their findings shed light on how “politics works” in a new Muslim democracy and suggest that parties, including Islamists, are strategic about their use of identity appeals. Menchik will illustrate this and other findings with ample recourse to visual images.
Dr. Jeremy Menchik is a 2011–12 Shorenstein Fellow. His PhD from the University of Wisconsin-Madison drew on two years of field research to explain variations in religious and political tolerance in Indonesia during the twentieth century. He has been a Luce Scholar at Columbia University and a visiting fellow at the State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta. He is working on a book manuscript based on his dissertation: Tolerance Without Liberalism: Islamic Institutions in Twentieth Century Indonesia.
Co-sponsored with the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Stanford University.
Philippines Conference Room
Jeremy Menchik
Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St C331
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Jeremy Menchik joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research is in the area of comparative politics and international relations with a focus on religion and politics in the Muslim world, especially Indonesia. At Shorenstein APARC, he is preparing his dissertation for publication as a book titled, Tolerance Without Liberalism: Islamic Institutions in Twentieth Century Indonesia, and developing related projects on the origins of intolerance, the relationship between religion and nationalism, and political symbolism in democratic elections.
Menchik holds an MA and a PhD in political science from UW-Madison and a BA, also in political science, from the University of Michigan. He will be an assistant professor in international relations at Boston University beginning in 2013.
Korea and Vietnam: The Bilateral Relationship
Ambassador Joon-woo Park, the 2011–12 Koret Fellow and a former senior diplomat from Korea, will give a historical review of Korea-Vietnam bilateral relations, including the effects of Korea's participation in the Vietnam War; bilateral relations today including diplomatic, economic and cultural exchanges; and prospects for future developments and cooperation for East Asian integration.
As a career diplomat, Ambassador Park served in numerous key posts, including those of Ambassador to the European Union and to Singapore and Presidential Advisor on Foreign Affairs. Park worked closely for over 20 years with Ban Ki-moon, the former Korean diplomat who is now the United Nations Secretary-General.
This event is made possible by the generous support from the Koret Foundation.
Oksenberg Conference Room
Joon-woo Park
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall C324
616 Serra Street
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Joon-woo Park, a former senior diplomat from Korea, is the 2011–12 Koret Fellow with the Korean Studies Program (KSP).
Park brings over 30 years of foreign policy experience to Stanford, including a deep understanding of the U.S.-Korea relationship, bilateral relations, and major Northeast Asian regional issues. In view of Korea’s increasingly important presence as a global economic and political leader, Park will explore foreign policy strategies for furthering this presence. In addition, he will consider possibilities for increased U.S.-Korea collaboration in their relations with China, as well as prospects for East Asian regional integration based on the European Union (EU) model. He will also teach a course during the winter quarter, entitled Korea's Foreign Policy in Transition.
In 2010, while serving as ambassador to the EU, Park signed the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in Brussels. That same year he also completed the Framework Agreement, strengthening EU-South Korea collaboration on significant global issues, such as human rights, the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and climate change. Park’s experience with such major bilateral agreements comes as the proposed Korea-U.S. FTA is nearing ratification.
Park holds a BA and an MA in law from Seoul National University.
The Koret Fellowship was established in 2008 through the generosity of the Koret Foundation to promote intellectual diversity and breadth in KSP, bringing leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to study U.S.-Korea relations. The fellows conduct their own research on the bilateral relationship, with an emphasis on contemporary relations, with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.
Broken Promises: Cambodia Today
Venue Changed to the Philippines Conference Room
In 1992, Cambodia became a United Nations (UN) protectorate—the first and only time the UN tried something so ambitious. What did the new, democratically-elected government do with this unprecedented gift? Cambodians today live in the grip of a venal government that refuses to provide even the most basic services without a bribe. Nearly half of the Cambodians who lived through the Khmer Rouge era suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. A malnourished populace still lives as Cambodians did 1,000 years ago, while government officials are the only overweight people in a nation where the hungry waste away. These conditions have not, however, dissuaded the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from acceding the Cambodian regime's desire to chair ASEAN in 2012. Prof. Joel Brinkley will turn an unsparing analytical eye on these and related aspects of Cambodian history, political economy, and foreign policy.
Joel Brinkley joined Stanford in the fall of 2006 after a 23-year career with The New York Times. At the Times he served as a reporter, editor, and Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent. At Stanford, he writes a weekly column on foreign affairs that appears in some 50 newspapers and web sites in the United States and around the world. He also writes on foreign affairs for Politico, and maintains an active public-speaking career. His research interests include American foreign policy and foreign affairs in general. Over the last 30 years, he has reported from 46 American states and more than 50 foreign countries. The latest of his five books is Cambodia's Curse: The Modern History of a Troubled Land (2011), already lauded by a reviewer in The American Interest as a "compelling" and "revealing tale of delusion and corruption" told with "panache." Copies of the book will be available for sale at the talk.
Philippines Conference Room
Do Different Health Insurance Plans in China Create Disparities in Health Care Utilization and Expenditures?
Venue Changed to the Philippines Conference Room
China has recently reformed its health care system with the intent of providing universal coverage for basic health care to every Chinese citizen. Three separate health insurance plans have recently been launched to achieve this objective: the rural newly cooperative medical scheme, urban resident health insurance, and urban employee-based health insurance. Each plan differs substantially in terms of insurers, insured population, premiums, and benefits packages. Using data from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey, Hai Fang will discuss a study that investigates whether and to what extend different health insurance plans have created disparities in health care utilization and expenditure.
Hai Fang is an assistant professor in the Department of Health Systems, Management, and Policy at the University of Colorado Denver, and a research associate in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He earned his doctorate in economics and master of public health from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 2006. Before joining the University of Colorado Denver, he taught at the University of California, Davis, and the University of Miami. His research interests include health economics, labor economics, and public health.
Philippines Conference Room
U.S. visit to Myanmar a major step
Demographic Change in East Asia: Economic, Social, and Security Implications
Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America’s high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.
A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia. The region is at the forefront of a trend towards longer life expectancy and declining birthrates, which, combined, yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another few decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also confronts a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face their own demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for a globally competitive
economy.
Held September 8–9, 2011 in Kyoto, Japan, the third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue focused on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which face similar problems. Questions addressed included:
- What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, savings rates, and public and private intergenerational transfers?
- How and why do policy responses to population aging differ in Japan, South Korea, and across different regions of China?
- What are the effects of demographic change on national institutions such as employment practices, pension and welfare systems, and financial systems?
- What policies can or should be pursued to influence future outcomes?
- How will demographic change affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?
- How have patterns of migration impacted society and culture in East Asia, in comparative perspective?
- How will demographic change influence the movement of people across the region and the prevalence of multicultural families?
- What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from each other to improve the policy response to population aging?