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The Japanese economy has been stagnating for almost two decades. During this event, Takeo Hoshi will describe the findings of a report that he co-authored with Anil Kashyap of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In the report, Hoshi and Kashyap utilized the neoclassical growth model in order to try to explain the causes of this stagnation and to identify policy choices that might help restore growth. Their focus was intentionally on longer-term issues, rather than the immediate challenges that are associated with the fallout from the global recession.

Looking at financial globalization and the collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime they found that by the end of the 1970s Japan could not rely on an undervalued currency to boost its exports. It had to rearrange its production system and other economic institutions to cope with globalization to reduce its reliance on external demand.

Japan's population structure was shifting and becoming increasingly elderly. Aging meant slower growth of the labor force. Declining fertility combined with aging eventually reduced the domestic saving that supported economic expansion during the rapid economic growth period.

Finally, monetary and fiscal policy performed poorly. The Bank of Japan consistently undershot its inflation objective. The government pursued massive fiscal stimulus during the 1990s and 2000s, so much so that Japan went from having the best debt position amongst advanced economies to the worst.

Hoshi is a Pacific Economic Cooperation Professor in international economic relations at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a research associate at the Tokyo Center for Economic Research, and is on the board of directors for Union Bank. His major research area is the study of the financial aspects of the Japanese economy, especially corporate finance and governance.

He is a recipient of the 2011 Reischauer International Education award, the 2006 Enjoji Jiro Memorial Prize, and the 2005 JEA-Nakahara Prize. Among his many publications is Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future (MIT Press, 2001), which received the Nikkei Award for the Best Economics Books in 2002.

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Former Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Former Professor, by courtesy, of Finance at the Graduate School of Business
takeo_hoshi_2018.jpg PhD

Takeo Hoshi was Henri and Tomoye Takahashi Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), Professor of Finance (by courtesy) at the Graduate School of Business, and Director of the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), all at Stanford University. He served in these roles until August 2019.

Before he joined Stanford in 2012, he was Pacific Economic Cooperation Professor in International Economic Relations at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS) at University of California, San Diego (UCSD), where he conducted research and taught since 1988.

Hoshi is also Visiting Scholar at Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and at the Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER), and Senior Fellow at the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER). His main research interest includes corporate finance, banking, monetary policy and the Japanese economy.

He received 2015 Japanese Bankers Academic Research Promotion Foundation Award, 2011 Reischauer International Education Award of Japan Society of San Diego and Tijuana, 2006 Enjoji Jiro Memorial Prize of Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha, and 2005 Japan Economic Association-Nakahara Prize.  His book titled Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future (MIT Press, 2001) co-authored with Anil Kashyap (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago) received the Nikkei Award for the Best Economics Books in 2002.  Other publications include “Will the U.S. and Europe Avoid a Lost Decade?  Lessons from Japan’s Post Crisis Experience” (Joint with Anil K Kashyap), IMF Economic Review, 2015, “Japan’s Financial Regulatory Responses to the Global Financial Crisis” (Joint with Kimie Harada, Masami Imai, Satoshi Koibuchi, and Ayako Yasuda), Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2015, “Defying Gravity: Can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis?” (Joint with Takatoshi Ito) Economic Policy, 2014, “Will the U.S. Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Eight Lessons from Japan” (with Anil Kashyap), Journal of Financial Economics, 2010, and “Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan” (Joint with Ricardo Caballero and Anil Kashyap), American Economic Review, December 2008.

Hoshi received his B.A. in Social Sciences from the University of Tokyo in 1983, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1988.

Former Director of the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Takeo Hoshi Pacific Economic Cooperation Professor in International Economic Relations Speaker Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego
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The countries of Northeast Asia and the United States share a twenty-year legacy of war, beginning with the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War in 1931 until the formal conclusion of the Pacific War in 1951. Historical memories of this period are often conflicting, as reflected by the master narratives presented in textbooks, and serve to impede effective, lasting reconciliation. In its groundbreaking new publication History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (Routledge Press, 2011), edited by Gi-Wook Shin and Daniel C. Sneider, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center examines the evolution of master narratives in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States in an effort to help lay the foundation for eventual historical reconciliation in the region. This is the first in a series of three books dealing with wartime memories and reconciliation.
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Except for specialists working on the period, the Korean Empire's (1897–1910) project to develop Pyongyang as the "Western Capital" (Sŏgyŏng) is not all that well known even among Korea historians. From the perspective of international relations, there can be no doubt that the Russo-Japanese War sealed independent Korea’s fate. All the same, in the last two decades or so, Korea’s own effort toward modernization has received more attention among historians who no longer dismiss the history of the Korean Empire as the tail end of the Chosŏn Dynasty. For sure, the official rhetoric that empires old and new have had two capitals conceals imperial Korea’s self-perceptions about its place in the civilized world of the past, the present, and the future. Moreover, scrutiny of the circumstances in which the government undertook the project before it came to a halt allows insight into the Korean Empire’s understanding of geopolitical realities at the time.

Eugene Y. Park is the Korea Foundation Associate Professor in History in the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also the director of Penn's Korean Studies Program. Dr. Park completed his doctorate in East Asian languages and civilizations at Harvard in 1999 and has received numerous research grants and fellowships, including: a 2007–08 Seoul National University Kyujanggak Institute for Korean Studies Fellowship; a 2003–04 Korea Foundation Advanced Research Grant; a 1999–2000 Yale University Council on East Asian Studies Postdoctoral Fellowship; a 1996–97 Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship; and a 1995–96 Fulbright Fellowship. His research interests focus on the sociopolitical history of early modern Korea, and his current work examines the chungin ("middle people") to address questions of modernity, identities, and agency. His book, Between Dreams and Reality: The Military Examination in Late Chosŏn Korea, 1600–1894, was published by the Harvard University Asia Center in 2007. He has published chapters and articles in venues such as Journal of Social History and Yŏksa wa hyŏnsil.

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Eugene Y. Park Korea Foundation Associate Professor Speaker University of Pennsylvania
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East Asia's demographic landscape is rapidly changing and comparative academic research is crucial to help guide well-informed decisions in the many policy areas that are affected, such as security, economics, and immigration. From January 20 to 21, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) gathered subject experts from numerous fields for two days of lively and productive presentations and dialogue to help identify key research issues and questions for its new, three-year research initiative on this significant subject.

Shorenstein APARC held a public panel discussion on January 20, featuring eight scholars from across the United States and Asia. The issue of aging featured prominently in their presentations, as did fertility rates and immigration. A full audio recording of the panel discussion is available on the Shorenstein APARC website and summaries of the presentations follow below. A closed-session workshop took place the next day, the discussions from which will serve as the foundation for future programs and publications related to the research initiative.

January 20 Panel Discussion Presentations

The link between demography and security is more tenuous in East Asia than in other parts of the world, suggested Brian Nichiporuk, a political scientist with the RAND Corporation. Nichiporuk discussed possible policy responses to demographic change in Japan, North and South Korea, the Russian Federation, and China. He suggested, for example, that Japan's new maritime security focus is related to perceived economic and political competition from China, which is magnified by its domestic demographic concerns.

Michael Sutton, a visiting fellow with the East-West Center in Washington, DC, stated that Japan's aging population would remain a major policy issue for the next 20–30 years. He emphasized that the policy challenges posed by this phenomena are complicated by the role that the United States plays in the regional security structure, and also by the growing dominance of China and the history that it shares with Japan. Nonetheless, maintained Sutton, despite the obvious challenges, it is possible for Japan and the other countries facing this demographic issue to successfully adapt.

Social attitudes and policy in East Asia do not favor immigration, as they do in European countries such as Spain and Italy, suggested John Skrentny, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California, San Diego. Skrentny focused his talk on low-skill immigrant workers in South Korea and Japan, noting that these two countries, which began receiving workers in the 1970s and 1980s, commonly associate immigrants with social disruption. According to Skrentny, immigration policy is often tied to economics and tends to favor co-ethnic workers.

Chong-En Bai
, chair of the Department of Economics at Tsinghua University, discussed numerous economic policy implications and responses related to demographic change in China. He noted areas where successful policies have been adopted but challenges still remain, including savings and investment, labor and urbanization, pension, healthcare, and long-term care. Bai described, for example, how the children of rural migrants now have access to urban schools, but that they still face the logistical challenge of having to travel back to their home provinces to take college entrance examinations.

Examining demographic change and health improvements is essential to understanding the significant economic growth in East Asia over the past several decades, emphasized David Bloom, chair of the Department of Global Health and Population at Harvard University. He noted the success of East Asian countries in lowering their infant mortality rates through investment in public health improvements, such as sanitation and vaccination. Bloom suggested that these and other past successful policy mechanisms have run their course, and that it is now imperative to find ways to address the region's key demographic issue of aging.

Naohiro Ogawa, director of the Population Research Institute at Nihon University, described findings from the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project, an international effort to gauge economic flows across age groups. He discussed the pressure placed on Japan's working-age population by the increasing cost of caring for children and the elderly, as well as the challenges and possibilities related to having a large, healthy, aging population. Ogawa noted that institutional responses to demographic change, such as increasing the retirement age and adopting more open immigration policy, have moved slowly in Japan.

Andrew Mason, a professor of economics at the University of Hawai'i, Manoa, also utilized NTA data to make predictions about East Asia's economic future. He proposed that the amount of human capital, such as the money that parents spend on the education of their children, is likely to grow quite rapidly. He also suggested that financial wealth in East Asia is likely to increase significantly as the populations of its countries age. Finally, he suggested that the current trend of regional economic growth would continue, although at a somewhat steadier rate. Mason qualified his predictions with questions, such as whether the return on investment in education would be commensurate with what is spent.

James Raymo, a professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, described a wide array of findings about changes in fertility and family structure in Japan and their connections, as well as possible policy implications. Raymo discussed trends in marriage, childbearing, divorce, non-marital cohabitation, and the participation of women in the labor force. He pointed to gaps in current research, and suggested possible linkages to research on other demographic trends, such as Japan's aging population.

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China is becoming increasingly urbanized as the government adopts policies to encourage migration from the countryside. Rural migrant families face challenges amidst the new urban opportunities.
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Using research from the SPRIE-Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (SPRIE-STAJE), representatives from the U.S. and Japanese governments met initially in Tokyo on May 27, 2010 to consider ways to foster an environment to promote new businesses and job creation. On November 13, 2010, the White House and the Prime Minister's Office formally launched the U.S.-Japan Dialogue to Promote Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Job Creation, elevating it to a policy-level dialogue in cooperation with SPRIE-STAJE. This dialogue aims to build on the conversation among Stanford's academic experts, prominent business people, and government officials about how to foster innovation through entrepreneurship. A roundtable discussion features the importance of innovation and entrepreneurship with leading Stanford academic experts, government officials, and business leaders. This will be followed by a panel discussion by experts from the U.S. and Japan on collaborative opportunities in pioneering smart grids for energy production, transmission, and distribution.

Featured speakers include:

  • John Roos, US Ambassador to Japan
  • Robert Hormats, Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, U.S. Department of State
  • William Miller, Co-Director, SPRIE, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford Univeristy
  • Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University and Former Ambassador to Japan
  • Norihiko Ishiguro, Director General, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
  • Larry W. Sonsini, Chairman, Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati
  • Daniel I. Okimoto, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science & Director Emeritus, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
  • Kathleen Eisenhardt, Professor, School of Engineering, Stanford University
  • Robert Eberhart, SPRIE Researcher, SPRIE, Shorenstsein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford Univeristy
  • Nobuyori Kodaira, Senior Managing Director, Toyota Motor Corporation,
  • Donald Wood, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
  • Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center

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This lecture will discuss the re-creation of public spaces in contemporary Seoul, analyzed as a long-term and contested process of decolonization in the wake of 35 years of Japanese rule (1910–45). Through an opening discussion of Namsan (South Mountain), Dr. Henry will show that the recreation of the city’s colonial spaces began quickly after liberation with the erasure of Chōsen Shrine, perhaps the most violent symbol of wartime "imperialization" (1937–1945), and its subsequent replacement with various nationalist monuments, including a memorial to the turn-of-the-century martyr Ahn Chung-gŭn (1879–1910).  "Chosŏn renaissance" is the term that he has coined to capture the most recent manifestations of a decolonizing project that re-imagines Korea's last dynasty as national glory. Dr. Henry’s discussion of the ongoing restoration of Kyŏngbok Palace, once the site of the Government-General building and various colonial period expositions, will demonstrate how this monument has come to serve as Seoul's showpiece for promoting South Korean patriotism and "tradition," albeit without directly referencing the country’s tumultuous modern history. Like the newly restored Chŏnggye Stream and the recent installation of a plaza and statue memorializing King Sejong (r. 1418–50), the restoration of Kyŏngbok Palace, a project that will not be completed until 2030, aims to remind South Korean citizens and international visitors of the illustrious and independent history of the peninsula before the onset of Japanese rule and four decades of post-colonial authoritarianism.

Dr. Henry (Ph.D., UCLA, 2006) is a specialist on modern Korea with a focus on the period of Japanese rule (1910–1945). He works on the comparative and transnational study of imperialism/colonialism, gender/sexuality, and critical urban studies. He is currently completing a book manuscript which examines the intersection of space and power in the city of colonial Seoul. 

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Todd A. Henry Assistant Professor in Residence, Department of History, University of California, San Diego Speaker
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Today is the last day of the Year of the Tiger in Vietnam. Tomorrow is the Year of the Cat (while in China it is Year of the Rabbit).

There was so much talk about Vietnam being an Asian Tiger in the past. Now, there is a growing concern about the country getting into the "middle-income trap." There is a real risk that the country might turn out to be just a cat and not a tiger.

The Party is aware of that threat and is struggling to find the right path to accelerated prosperity for the people while maintaining political monopoly.

This talk will be from the perspective of a man on the ground and will try to separate the smoke from the fire and find the heat.

Mr. Kien Duk Trung Pham is currently the Chairman of Red Bricks Group, a private investment firm. He is the founder of the Vietnam Foundation and the Vice Chairman of the VietNamNet Media Group, the leading multi-channel media company in Vietnam. Prior to VietNamNet he was the founding executive director of the Vietnam Education Foundation.

In business, Mr. Pham was a market development executive in Fortune 500 companies as well as an entrepreneur in technology and consulting startups. In government, he served in the executive branch under Presidents Reagan and Bush, as well as in the U.S. Senate. He has established nonprofit foundations to assist college students, orphans, and the handicapped in Vietnam. Mr. Pham is publicly recognized for his leadership and management abilities.

Mr. Pham is active in international affairs. In 1986, he was chosen a Young Leader by the American Council on Germany, and in 1992 a U.S.-Japan Leadership Fellow by the Japan Society. In 1993, he was elected as a term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a participant in the American Assembly. Mr. Pham was the founder and chairman of the Vietnam Forum Foundation, a U.S. nonprofit organization that provides college scholarships, schools, and orphanage support in Vietnam. He was also a Board member of the Vietnam Assistance for the Handicapped, a leading humanitarian program to help war victims. In 1996, Mr. Pham was a recipient of the "Never Fear, Never Quit" Award.

Mr. Pham grew up in Saigon, Vietnam. In 1977, at the age of 19, he led his family on a high sea escape and came to the United States where they settled in Colorado. Mr. Pham became a factory worker, learned English, and later attended college on scholarship. He received a BS in marketing and international business from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and won a scholarship to study in England. His graduate degrees, earned concurrently at Stanford University, include an MBA in international and organizational management, an MA in international economics, and a special diploma in public policy management. In 1990, Stanford University named Mr. Pham among of the "Most Outstanding Alumni" in the school's 100 years of history. Mr. Pham is former White House Fellow and a recipient an honorary JD degree from Pfeiffer University.

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Pham Duc Trung Kien Executive Chairman Speaker Red Bricks Group (RBG)
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