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The Obama administration’s “rebalance” to Asia is about much more than China’s rise and changing role in the region, but US-China relations are an integral part of the new policy and the way it is perceived and characterized by others in the Asia-Pacific region.  The keynote address and comments by American and Chinese scholars with years of government experience will examine the objectives and implications of the “rebalance” and what it means for the United States, China, and US-China relations.

Keynote Speaker:

Kenneth LieberthalDr. Kenneth Lieberthal is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy and Global Economy and Development at Brookings. From 2009-2012, Lieberthal served as the director of the John L. Thornton China Center. Lieberthal was a professor at the University of Michigan for 1983-2009. He has authored 24 books and monographs and over 70 articles, mostly dealing with China. He also served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Asia on the National Security Council from August 1998 to October 2000. His government responsibilities encompassed U.S. policy toward Northeast, East and Southeast Asia. His latest book, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (co-authored with Martin Indyk and Michael O’Hanlon), was published by the Brookings Press in March 2012. Leiberthal earned his B.A. from Darthmouth College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Columbia University


Panelists:

Mike ArmacostWelcome remarks - Dr. Michael Armacost is the Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow. He has been at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) since 2002. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines. 

 

 

 

Jean OiPanel Chair - Professor Jean Oi is the William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Oi is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. She leads Stanford's China Initiative, and is the Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University. Oi directed Stanford's Center for East Asian Studies from 1998 to 2005. A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the department of government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

 

 

Karl EikenberryAmbassador Karl Eikenberry is the William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at CISAC, CDDRL, TEC, and Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow; and Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Retired U.S. Army Lt. General. Prior to his arrival at Stanford, he served as the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan from May 2009 until July 2011, where he led the civilian surge directed by President Obama to reverse insurgent momentum and set the conditions for transition to full Afghan sovereignty. Before appointment as Chief of Mission in Kabul, Ambassador Eikenberry had a thirty-five year career in the United States Army, retiring in April 2009 with the rank of Lieutenant General.  His military operational posts included commander and staff officer with mechanized, light, airborne, and ranger infantry units in the continental U.S., Hawaii, Korea, Italy, and Afghanistan as the Commander of the American-led Coalition forces from 2005-2007.

 

Cui LiruDr. CUI Liru is Senior Advisor to China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a think-tank in China known for its comprehensive studies on current international affairs and prominent role in providing consulting services to the Chinese government and former President of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). He is a member of the Committee of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Peoples’ Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and also serves as a member of the Foreign Policy Consulting Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is Vice President of China National Association for International Studies (CNAIS) and serves as Senior Adviser to multiple institutions for the study of national security and foreign relations. As a senior researcher, his specialties cover U.S. foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, international security issues and Chinese foreign policy.

 

Tom Fingar

 

Professor Tom Fingar is the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989–1994), and chief of the China Division (1986–1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

 

The Oksenberg Lecture, held annually, honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001). A senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Professor Oksenberg served as a key member of the National Security Council when the United States normalized relations with China, and consistently urged that the United States engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Conference/Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

Please note: this event is off-the-record.

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Due to the interest generated by this seminar, we have reached our maximum seating capacity and are not able to accommodate any more guests. We apologize for the inconvenience and thank you for your understanding.

This event is co-sponsored by The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

About the Topic: Following several visits to North Korea in recent months, the most recent one in April 2014, Kathi Zellweger will focus her remarks on humanitarian aid, rehabilitation projects, and development cooperation in North Korea. The presenter’s findings will be supported by a number of facts and figures about the country and background information about the health sector. The speaker will identify the participants in the area of assistance along with the issues they face when providing aid. The talk will also provide insights into positive examples of projects, what is needed for projects to succeed, and how the type of aid required is changing. Based on nearly 20 years of work experience involving North Korea, Zellweger concludes that isolation and sanctions hinder development potential and that engagement is more likely to be a constructive and peaceful way forward. 

About the Speaker: Kathi Zellweger is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Prior to that she was the Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in residence at Stanford University from November 2011 to August 2013. Most recently at Stanford she gave a course entitled “An Insight into North Korea Society” for  graduate  and undergraduate students. She is a frequent presenter on the topic of the situation of the North Korean people, to audiences in the U.S. and abroad. Zellweger has also made significant contributions in this field through her participation in workshops, seminars and conferences about humanitarian, as well as security, issues on the Korean peninsula, more specifically  regarding North Korea.  

Zellweger is a senior aid manager with over 30 years of field experience in Hong Kong, China and North Korea. She was based in Pyongyang for five years (2006-2011) as North Korea country director for the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), an office of the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The focus of her work was on sustainable agricultural production in order to address food security issues, income generation to improve people’s livelihoods, and capacity development contributing to individual and institutional learning.

Before joining SDC, Zellweger worked from 1978 to 2006 for the Catholic agency Caritas in Hong Kong in a senior post; she played a key role in pioneering Caritas involvement initiatives in China and in North Korea.

Zellweger received the Bishop Tji Hak-soon Justice and Peace Award in 2005 from a South Korean foundation established to promote social justice, and in 2006 the Dame of St. Gregory the Great from the Vatican for her work in North Korea.

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Visiting Fellow, CISAC, Former Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies, APARC Speaker
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China’s new leadership must address a host of domestic and foreign policy challenges as it copes with the results of past success and the need to continue the process of reform that began in 1979. China’s rise has raised expectations at home and concerns abroad. In a world that is increasingly interdependent, China must balance the expectations of its people, the perils of attempting to do too many things too quickly, and the need to alleviate fears and sustain the high level of international cooperation that has facilitated the success of the country’s “reform and opening up” policies.

Liru CUI is Senior Advisor to China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think-tank in China known for its comprehensive studies on current international affairs and prominent role in providing consulting services to the Chinese government. Cui is a member of the Committee of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Peoples’ Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and also serves as a member of the Foreign Policy Consulting Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is Vice President of China National Association for International Studies (CNAIS) and serves as Senior Adviser to multiple institutions for the study of national security and foreign relations. As a senior researcher, his specialties cover U.S. foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, international security issues and Chinese foreign policy.

Please note: this event is off-the-record.

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Liru Cui Senior Advisor Speaker China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
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In a recent panel discussion, Shorenstein APARC’s Masahiko Aoki considered the challenges that Japan faces as it prepares for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and the prospects of the Games being used as an impetus for broader, national change.

“The 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Japan’s Future,” the opening session of the 2014 Yomiuri International Forum “Resurface! Japan” was held April 19 at the Marunouchi Building in Marunouchi, Tokyo.

Cohosted by the Yomiuri International Economic Society and The Yomiuri Shimbun, the forum featured an examination of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, and a discussion on how the Tokyo Games should be carried out, as well as focusing on issues and prospects for using the Olympics as an opportunity for “Japan’s resurgence.”

The forum was moderated by Satoru Watanabe, senior research fellow at the Yomiuri Research Institute.

Priority issues

Watanabe: What advice do you have based on your experiences at the London Olympics?

Jonathan Stephens: Six years can seem a long time, but it is important to be starting now to plan for those benefits to come...It is important to be looking not just to success in 2020 itself but beyond 2020 to the benefits that you want to realize. And I hope that all parts of the country and all parts involved in organizing the Games come together to agree a clear set of priorities for the benefits to be realized for the future so that all can work together to realize those benefits.

Watanabe: The Olympics can also be considered a cultural festival.

Seiichi Kondo: Japan is a compartmentalized society, so just because there are good museums and concert halls, one plus one doesn’t necessarily equal two. How much can these restrictions be done away within six years? I have high hopes for Gov. Masuzoe.

Yoichi Masuzoe: One way to enjoy [the Olympics] would be to watch sports during the day and spend the evening appreciating art. But public museums close at 5 p.m. I’d like to do something about this, even if just during the Olympics.

Watanabe: How should Tokyo change?

Masahiko Aoki: Tokyo needs to face the fact that an earthquake could occur directly underneath the city. The Great East Japan Earthquake and Great Hanshin Earthquake made clear the importance of countermeasures. It is the host city’s responsibility to ensure safety through “flawless disaster preparations.”

Watanabe: How should the costs for the new national stadium be dealt with?

Masuzoe: In principle, it is the responsibility of the national government. But if a park is to be built around it for the benefit of the residents of Tokyo, that’s something for the taxpayers to consider. The issue shouldn’t be decided through top-level, behind-the-scenes negotiations.

Watanabe: What are your thoughts about the philosophy and legacy of the Olympics?

Masuzoe: It is a festival that crosses barriers of skin color, religion, nationality and language. The Olympics are the best opportunity to recognize the diversity of humankind. 

Seiko Hashimoto: Through the Olympics, we can go back to basic questions like, “Why do people play sports?” and, “What do people live for?” Also, in Japan, some things that need to be changed haven’t, and others that shouldn’t be changed have. It’s a chance to take a fresh look at Japan.

Watanabe: Do you have any advice for Tokyo?

Stephens: Now is the time to be thinking about and planning the legacy and the benefits. And I think our other experience is that that planning needs to involve a wide array of organizations and groups across the country. Only a small group of governments and authorities can build the national stadiums and the transport infrastructure that has been spoken about, but to build more people participating in sport, to rebuild communities, to encourage more volunteers—that requires an effort across many local organizations and local community groups and local sports bodies. So it is very important in our experience, to begin to engage those bodies now, both in Tokyo and outside Tokyo, across the country, to encourage them to think about the benefits and how they can realize and use the Games to encourage more participation.

Solidarity

Watanabe: How can the Olympics be used as an opportunity for strengthening athletes? 

Hashimoto: One of the training themes the Japanese Olympic Committee employs is that [athletes’] competitiveness cannot increase without enhancing their strengths as human beings. Although Japanese have inferior physiques, we tend to have the qualities of not giving up, a willingness to strive for the sake of others, and solidarity. To burnish these, [athletes] are trained to acquire virtues such as how to treat objects with care. Athletes who have visited the disaster areas experienced a change in attitude. Records are, of course, important, but so is nurturing memorable athletes who have wonderful humanity.

Stephens: I would just add one thing, that in 2020 Japan will have one big advantage. It will have a home crowd. And in London in 2012, the athletes said that performing in front of their home crowd helped them perform even better. Mo Farah, who was the Olympic gold medalist for both the 5,000 meters and the 10,000 meters, said that it gave him extra yards as he turned the final bend. And that home crowd was based on sort of the enthusiasm, knowledge, participation of the British crowd in sport. And so, ensuring that Japan makes the most of that home advantage and that the home crowd gets behind its athletes, I’m sure, will help them perform to their very best.

Watanabe: How should the Paralympics be coordinated with the Olympics?

Hashimoto: This fiscal year, the jurisdiction for the Paralympic Games was transferred from the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry to the Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry. A sports ministry is expected to be created in or after next April. There are also opportunities in business, medical care and other areas related to athletics for disabled people. The activities of Paralympians could be very beneficial in designing a new Japan.

Kondo: One of the strengths of culture and art is “social inclusion,” or their ability to include people from all different standpoints. This is realized at the Paralympics, so they have great significance in that they can change people’s consciousness. 

Aoki: Elderly people have returned to the heart of Tokyo. This is the result of progress made by the metropolitan government in elderly-friendly frameworks in recreation and transportation. Creating a barrier-free city is very important not just for impaired people, but also when thinking about how to build a city that is comfortable to live in.

Stephens: [The Olympics were] an opportunity for London as a city to review how, in terms of public transport and public accessibility, it treated disabled people, but it also, most of all, transformed attitudes. I don’t know if anyone has watched Paralympic wheelchair rugby, but you cannot watch wheelchair rugby and come away thinking that disabled people are weak or need protecting. They bring their wheelchairs together with great crashes; the wheelchairs sometimes break; and the Paralympic athletes just continue going. And I think that portrayed to people that disabled people could be strong, competitive and deserved a full part in society. And that was one of the most lasting benefits from the Games.

Collaboration with disaster-hit areas

Watanabe: It is also important to think about collaborations with the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Kondo: Almost all of the competitions will be held in Tokyo, but cultural events can take place nationwide. We could invite artists from around the world to the Tohoku region, so they can be inspired by living in mountain villages or other experiences. They can learn from Tohoku’s wonderful spirituality. 

Aoki: Internationally, it’s vital that the decommissioning of the reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant is carried out in all seriousness. Instead of just thinking about what to do about compensation for the disaster, we should consider whether a framework that has something to say to the world can be linked to the decommissioning effort. It’s also important to learn from Fukushima when thinking about how to prepare for a possible earthquake directly under the capital. 

Hashimoto: There has been some discussion about wanting to hold some competitions in Tohoku, but that might be difficult in the present situation. However, serving Tohoku cuisine in the athletes village is one way to convey the message of “Cool Japan.” I also hope all the children in Tohoku can participate in the torch relay. As an event that would give children hopes and dreams, and bring the country together, I hope it can be realized. 

Watanabe: How can the Olympics contribute to international relations?

Kondo: I’d like to make them a place where Japanese athletes and athletes from countries that have delicate relations with Japan can share some enjoyment. Although leaders may have their hands tied in politics, I think it’s possible to create a groundswell of grassroots sentiment.

Stephens: The Olympics can be a positive opportunity to bring together people from across the world to participate in a celebration of peaceful competition. And that sets a great example, I think, to the world. Nations want to come together; they want to participate in the Olympics and the Paralympics. The Olympics can’t solve every problem; it’s important to be realistic, but they can be a great symbol of what’s to be gained by competing peacefully with one another.

The English article was originally carried by The Japan News (The Yomiuri Shimbun) on May 10, reposted with permission.

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The China-Japan-South Korea-U.S. dialogue on wartime history issues will be conducted on a closed door, background basis, structured to allow for extended discussion along with opportunities for social interaction aimed at creating a long-term network of interested parties. The format, based on Shorenstein APARC’s experience in conducting a multi-year trans-Asian dialogue, will utilize Stanford scholars as resource persons who will frame a series of focused discussions with initial presentations, based on our research, aimed at stimulating constructive dialogue. The participant list includes academic experts from each country; some outside experts; Stanford University participants and representatives of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat.

Stanford University

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Keynote Speakers

WANG YIMING, Deputy Secretary General, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

The Institutional Problems in China’s Urbanization Process

CAI FANG, Director, Institute of Population Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences

Urbanization and Labor Markets in China

LI SHUZHUO, Director, Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University

Fertility, Sex Ratio, and Family Planning Policies in China

Stanford Center at Peking University

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Little empirical evidence exists on the health costs of air pollution in China, one of the most polluted countries in the world. Unsurprisingly, the lack of reliable data on pollution levels and health outcomes impede research. Because the pollution-health relationship is likely non-linear, it is difficult to extrapolate from existing high quality studies in developed countries to ascertain health costs. We address this deficiency by obtaining new data on Beijing’s daily mortality April 2008-April 2013 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We combine these data with daily pollution measures from the US Embassy in Beijing, which records particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in width (PM 2.5). We find that after controlling for weather conditions, year, month, and day of week fixed effects, daily PM2.5 indeed predicts daily mortality, particularly deaths from cardiovaslular disease. A 100 μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 is associated with 7 deaths daily, among them 4 cardiovascular deaths, and 0.8 respiratory deaths. Furthermore, deaths among less-educated and outdoor workers show a stronger relationship to PM2.5 levels. Notably, the relationship is robust to controlling for the official measure of Beijing’s air pollution, the average daily air pollution index (API), despite the fact that PM2.5 is measured by 1 monitor at the US embassy whereas API (and mortality) combine data from across the Beijing metropolitan area. Indeed, Beijing’s API does not have a significant relationship to mortality once AQI at the Embassy is accounted for. Our finding supports previous research arguing for measuring PM 2.5 and reporting it promptly to the public. 
 
Shuang Zhang is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at University of Colorado Boulder. She works on various topics in development, including health, education, environment, political economy, etc,. with a focus on China. She holds a PhD in Economics from Cornell University and was a postdoctoral fellow in SIEPR of Stanford University in 2012-13.

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Shuang Zhang assistant professor in the Department of Economics Speaker University of Colorado Boulder
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China’s giant automobile market continues to grow robustly, but its once thriving domestic producers have lost ground recently to global auto giants such as Volkswagen and GM. The excessive optimism of the past, however, has given birth to unwarranted pessimism about the future. The tangled legacy of China’s automotive policy has created numerous dilemmas, but it has also helped to create significant capabilities. A comparison of developments in China with those of other developing economies in East Asia suggests that institutions for promoting industrial upgrading have played a significant role in enabling some countries, such as China and South Korea, to deepen their industrial bases, while others either remain limited to assembling foreign models (as in Thailand and now Indonesia) or have failed to develop a sustainable automobile industry at all (as in the Philippines and even Malaysia). China faces tough policy choices, but it is likely to move, however reluctantly, in a more liberal and competitive direction.

Gregory W. Noble’s specialty is the comparative political economy of East Asia. His many publications include “The Chinese Auto Industry as Challenge, Opportunity, and Partner” in The Third Globalization (2013); “Japanese and American Perspectives on Regionalism in East Asia,” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific (2008); “Executioner or Disciplinarian: WTO Accession and the Chinese Auto Industry,” Business and Politics (co-authored, 2005); The Asian Financial Crisis and the Architecture of Global Finance (co-edited, 2000); and Collective Action in East Asia: How Ruling Parties Shape Industrial Policy (1999). After receiving his Ph.D. from Harvard University’s Department of Government, he taught at the University of California and the Australian National University before moving to Tokyo.

China Drives into the Future: Automotive Upgrading in East Asia Today
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Gregory W. Noble Professor, Institute of Social Science Speaker University of Tokyo
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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Daniel C. Sneider; Lisa Griswold

STANFORD, California – Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) will convene a Track II dialogue of academic experts from Asia, the United States and Europe to discuss the issues of wartime history that continue to impact relations in the region. The dialogue, “Wartime History Issues in Asia: Pathways to Reconciliation,” is being held on May 11-13 on a closed-door and confidential basis with the goal of offering practical ideas to help resolve tensions surrounding those issues. Shorenstein APARC has been a leader in academic research on the formation of wartime historical memory through its Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, including a ground breaking comparative study of the treatment of the war in the high school history textbooks of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan and the United States.

The core participants in this dialogue will be scholars from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States, along with Stanford University scholars. Most of these participants have significant experience in previous efforts to foster dialogue and reconciliation on wartime history issues. In addition, select experts on the European experience in dealing with wartime historical memory will contribute.

The dialogue takes place under the co-sponsorship of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS), based in Seoul. TCS is an international organization established by the governments of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2011 to promote peace and prosperity among the three countries. Through various initiatives, the TCS strives to serve as a vital hub for cooperation and integration in Northeast Asia.

TCS representatives will attend the dialogue as observers; any expression of opinions will be in their personal capacities. It is expected that the outcome of this dialogue will include a set of forward-looking recommendations to civil society, researchers, and governments. TCS may adopt them for consideration by the governments of China, Japan and the ROK.

“It is my sincere hope that through this joint scholarly endeavor, TCS will be provided with the necessary direction and guidance to follow-up on bilateral efforts at historical dialogue over the past years,” Mr. Iwatani Shigeo, Secretary-General of TCS said in his letter of invitation. “I look forward to your insight and wisdom on ways to promote peace and reconciliation in this region.”

The Stanford dialogue could launch a new effort to resolve wartime history issues in the region. “Our further hope is that this will be an ongoing process, building on previous efforts at bilateral dialogue on history issues that will go beyond this initial meeting,” Shorenstein APARC Director Professor Gi-Wook Shin said in his invitation to participants.

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