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RSVPs are required for the buffet luncheon that will accompany this panel. Please RSVP to Debbie Warren at dawarren@stanford.edu or 650-723-2408 by Friday, April 9, 2004.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

His Excellency Vincent Siew Former Premier of Taiwan (1997-2000) Panelist
Michaek Kau Deputy Miniter of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan Panelist
Ramon Myers Senior Fellow Panelist Hoover Institution
Lawrence J. Lau Panelist
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Former Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Michael_Armacost.jpg PhD

Michael Armacost (April 15, 1937 – March 8, 2025) was a Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from 2002 through 2021. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four-year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines.

Armacost began his career in academia, as a professor of government at Pomona College. In 1969, he was awarded a White House Fellowship and was assigned to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of State. Following a stint on the State Department's policy planning and coordination staff, he became a special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Tokyo from 1972 to 74, his first foreign diplomatic post. Thereafter, he held senior Asian affairs and international security posts in the State Department, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. From 1982 to 1984, he served as U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and was a key force in helping the country undergo a nonviolent transition to democracy. In 1989, President George Bush tapped him to become ambassador to Japan, considered one of the most important and sensitive U.S. diplomatic posts abroad.

Armacost authored four books, including, Friends or Rivals? The Insider's Account of U.S.–Japan Relations (1996), which draws on his tenure as ambassador, and Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections (2015). He also co-edited, with Daniel Okimoto, the Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia, published in 2004 by Shorenstein APARC. Armacost served on numerous corporate and nonprofit boards, including TRW, AFLAC, Applied Materials, USEC, Inc., Cargill, Inc., and Carleton College, and he currently chairs the board of The Asia Foundation.  

A native of Ohio, Armacost graduated from Carleton College and earned his master's and doctorate degrees in public law and government from Columbia University. He received the President's Distinguished Service Award, the Defense Department's Distinguished Civilian Service Award, the Secretary of State's Distinguished Services Award, and the Japanese government’s Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun.

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Michael H. Armacost Moderator
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Taiwan is a world premier manufacturing center, with many products leading in world market share, such as IC foundry (72.8%), Mask ROM (81.8%), WLAN (91%), CD-R Disc (79%), DVD-R Disc (82%) and others. In recent years, it has also performed well in patent productivity and S&T infrastructure. Currently, the challenge for Taiwan is to enter a new stage for economic development - to transform from a manufacturing-based economy in an innovation-based economy. What is the current status and prospects of Taiwan's industry technology innovation system? How does it perform? What are the gaps? What lessons have been learned from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs policies for public and private, university and industry networking?

As director general of the Department of Industrial Technology (DOIT) at the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taiwan, Dr. Hwang is responsible for formulating industrial policy to upgrade technology levels in Taiwan. The DOIT works with research institutions, private companies and universities to implement Taiwan's annual Technology Development Program. Supported by a more than $5 billion annual budget, this program focuses on stimulating the development and transfer of knowledge-intensive technologies, upgrading R&D capabilities of research institutions, and promoting international scientific and technological cooperation across such key industries, as IT, biotech, materials, machinery, aerospace, communications and others. Since 1990, Dr. Hwang has led a distinguished career in government service in Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. He received a PhD in Information Engineering and MS in Computer Engineering from National Chiao-Tung University and a BS in Electronics Engineering from Chung Yuan Christian University.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Dr. Jung-Chiou Hwang Director General Department of Industrial Technology, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan
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Mr. Siew began his civil service career at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1962. He was soon appointed vice consul at the ROC?s Consulate General in Kuala Lumpur and then appointed Consul. He held the position of consul for 3 years. Once home, he became a section chief in the East Asian & Pacific Affairs Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1972 he rose to department director-general. Trade negotiations and market promotion were two areas to which he was particularly dedicated. As member of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), Mr. Siew was elected in July 1988 to the KMT Central Committee. In June 1990 a new premier was appointed and the cabinet was reshuffled. Mr. Siew was appointed Minister of Economic Affairs. In November 1992, he helped to secure formal observer status for the ROC in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now the World Trade Organization.) In August 1997, soon after the National Assembly had completed a revision of the Constitution, the government reorganized the cabinet. President Lee Teng-hui appointed Mr. Siew premier. He took office in September of that year and held the position until May 2000. Mr. Siew has since retired from government office and spends his time as an ordinary citizen devoting his efforts to education and social welfare.

Vidilakis Dining Room, Schwab Residential Center, 680 Serra Street, Stanford University Campus

His Excellency Vincent Siew Former Premier of Taiwan (1997-2000)
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These essays reveal how China's Communist Party selected a new generation of leaders in late 2002 to maintain the position of a regional and world power. They explain how China's leaders are promoting a market economy and undertaking gradual political reforms and note the problems they are having in handling mounting political corruption, spreading unemployment, growing disparity of wealth and income, and a crisis of belief.

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Books
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Cambridge University Press in "The New Chinese Leadership: Challenges and Opportunities after the 16th Party Congress"
Authors
Jean C. Oi
Number
0521600588
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As seen in the previous sections, China's reformers, more than anything, have followed a
strategy based on providing incentives through property rights reforms, even though in China the shift to private ownership is today far from complete. The reforms started with the Household Responsibility System (HRS), a policy of radical decollectivization that allowed farmers to keep the residual output of their farms after paying their agricultural taxes and completing their mandatory delivery quotas. Farmers also began to exercise control over much of the production process (although in the initial years, the local state shared some control rights and in some places still do today). In this way the first reforms in the agricultural sector reshuffled property rights in an attempt to increase work incentives and exploit the specific knowledge of individuals about the production process (Perkins, 1994). In executing the property rights reforms, leaders also fundamentally restructured farms in China. Within a few years, for example, reformers completely broke up the larger collective farms into small household farms. In China today there are more than 200 million farms, the legacy of an HRS policy that gave the primary responsibilities for farming to the individual household. McMillan, Whalley and Zhu (1989), Fan (1991), Lin (1992) and Huang and Rozelle (1996) have all documented the strong, positive impact that property rights reforms had on output and productivity. 

In addition to property rights reform and transforming incentives, the other major
task of reformers is to create more efficient institutions of exchange. Markets-whether
classic competitive ones or some workable substitute-increase efficiency by facilitating
transactions among agents to allow specialization and trade and by providing information
through a pricing mechanism to producers and consumers about the relative scarcity of
resources. But markets, in order to function efficiently, require supporting institutions to
ensure competition, define and enforce property rights and contracts, ensure access to
credit and finance and provide information (John McMillan, 1997; World Bank 2002).
These institutions were either absent in the Communist countries or, if they existed, were
inappropriate for a market system. Somewhat surprisingly, despite their importance in
the reform process there is much less work on the success that China has had in building
markets and the effect that the markets has had on the economy.

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Working Papers
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Food and Agricultural Organization
Authors
Scott Rozelle
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Increasing population pressure and non-agricultural demand for land have far-reaching implications for the way in which land rights are defined and access to land is regulated with a society. Unless clear and enforceable legal provisions are in place to impose constraints on the behavior of individual actors, this process may hurt the poor and/or have undesirable impacts on productivity. However, many countries, especially in Africa, have found it difficult to bring about legal change. Using the 2003 Rural Land Contracting Law as a point of departure, we describe recent changes of land relations in China, assess how legal provisions relate to practice, and describe progress in implementing the law. We find surprisingly rapid progress in implementation which is driven by a combination of centrally sponsored dissemination and democratic control at the local level. Issues for future research are identified.

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Scott Rozelle
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Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Department of Political Science
Stanford University
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-26044

(650) 723-2843 (650) 725-9401
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics
jean_oi_headshot.jpg PhD

Jean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a Senior Fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Professor Oi is also the founding Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the Department of Government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

Her work focuses on comparative politics, with special expertise on political economy and the process of reform in transitional systems. Oi has written extensively on China's rural politics and political economy. Her State and Peasant in Contemporary China (University of California Press, 1989) examined the core of rural politics in the Mao period—the struggle over the distribution of the grain harvest—and the clientelistic politics that ensued. Her Rural China Takes Off (University of California Press, 1999 and Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 1999) examines the property rights necessary for growth and coined the term “local state corporatism" to describe local-state-led growth that has been the cornerstone of China’s development model. 

She has edited a number of conference volumes on key issues in China’s reforms. The first was Growing Pains: Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation (Brookings Institution Press, 2010), co-edited with Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, which examined the earlier phases of reform. Most recently, she co-edited with Thomas Fingar, Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future (Stanford University Press, 2020). The volume examines the difficult choices and tradeoffs that China leaders face after forty years of reform, when the economy has slowed and the population is aging, and with increasing demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits.

Oi also works on the politics of corporate restructuring, with a focus on the incentives and institutional constraints of state actors. She has published three edited volumes related to this topic: one on China, Going Private in China: The Politics of Corporate Restructuring and System Reform (Shorenstein APARC, 2011); one on Korea, co-edited with Byung-Kook Kim and Eun Mee Kim, Adapt, Fragment, Transform: Corporate Restructuring and System Reform in Korea (Shorenstein APARC, 2012); and a third on Japan, Syncretism: The Politics of Economic Restructuring and System Reform in Japan, co-edited with Kenji E. Kushida and Kay Shimizu (Brookings Institution, 2013). Other more recent articles include “Creating Corporate Groups to Strengthen China’s State-Owned Enterprises,” with Zhang Xiaowen, in Kjeld Erik Brodsgard, ed., Globalization and Public Sector Reform in China (Routledge, 2014) and "Unpacking the Patterns of Corporate Restructuring during China's SOE Reform," co-authored with Xiaojun Li, Economic and Political Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2018.

Oi continues her research on rural finance and local governance in China. She has done collaborative work with scholars in China, including conducting fieldwork on the organization of rural communities, the provision of public goods, and the fiscal pressures of rapid urbanization. This research is brought together in a co-edited volume, Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization (Brookings Institution Shorenstein APARC Series, 2017), with Karen Eggleston and Wang Yiming. Included in this volume is her “Institutional Challenges in Providing Affordable Housing in the People’s Republic of China,” with Niny Khor. 

As a member of the research team who began studying in the late 1980s one county in China, Oi with Steven Goldstein provides a window on China’s dramatic change over the decades in Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County (Stanford University Press, 2018). This volume assesses the later phases of reform and asks how this rural county has been able to manage governance with seemingly unchanged political institutions when the economy and society have transformed beyond recognition. The findings reveal a process of adaptive governance and institutional agility in the way that institutions actually operate, even as their outward appearances remain seemingly unchanged.

Selected Multimedia

Director of the China Program
Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Date Label
Jean C. Oi
Tom Gold Professor, Sociology University of California, Berkeley
Ramon Myers Senior Fellow Hoover Institution
Larry Diamond
Conferences
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Mr. Sun will try to establish a new research framework to analyze the monetary policy transmission mechanism. In this field, previous research has usually assumed that the banking sector would completely transmit the purpose of the central bank to the real sector, thus paying attention to the channels from the banking sector to the real sector. Because the transmission of monetary policy in the banking sector is the most important part of deciding the effectiveness of monetary policy, this research focuses on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy from the central bank to the banking sector. The concept of ?cushion storage reserve? was created by Mr. Sun and was introduced to this framework to analyze the comparison of reserve supply and reserve demand. Based on this concept and a related main formula, commercial banks? behaviors were divided into three reactive approaches -- sterilize, forbear, and adjust. According to the different kinds of reactions, monetary policy has different effects. This new analyzing framework makes the analysis of monetary policy operation more concise and effective. At the end of his paper, Mr. Sun will try to use this approach to explain the present monetary situation of China and Japan. Lunch will be provided for those who RSVP by 3/29/04.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall

Sun Guofeng APARC Visiting Fellow People's Bank of China
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The honeymoon between China and the U.S. tech industry is over, and the warm feelings may be gone for a while. APARC's Lawrence J. Lau comments.

History shows that these sorts of trade problems can last a long time. In the '80s, Japanese and U.S. semiconductor manufacturers sparred constantly. A truce only began in the '90s when Japan was already mired in an economic slide. Moreover, such trade quarrels can lead to global incompatibilities that linger for years and hurt both importers and exporters. "I believe there are genuine security concerns on China's part, although the domestic industry is also likely to benefit," said Lawrence Lau, the Kwoh-Ting Li professor of economic development at Stanford University. "This happens quite often. Our cell phones do not work in Japan, so the Japanese manufacturers and distributors have a lock in their home market. However, that did not exactly help Japan. By setting a different standard, Japan has actually limited the growth of its own cell phone companies."

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Ambassador Park joined the Republic of Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1963 and has served as deputy minister for political affairs, ambassador to Morocco and Canada, ambassador to the UN office in Geneva and GATT, chancellor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, special envoy to Iran, Jordan, Qatar and Oman, chief representative of the ROK on the UN Security Council, and president of the UN Security Council. He is currently president of the UN Association of the Republic of Korea.

Philippines Conference Room

Park Soo-Gil Former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the United States; Representative on the UN Sub-Commission on the Protection and Promotion of Human Rights (2000-2003)
Seminars
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