Paragraphs

China's economy has experienced remarkable growth since its economic reform and is expected to maintain high growth in the coming decades. This paper looks at the implications of China's rapid growth and emergence in the global economy for its own economy and for the rest of world, with specific focus on Australia. The conclusion is that China will emerge as the second largest importer and exporter in the world by 2020. Although imports of many land-intensive agricultural products are projected to rise, exports of most labor-intensive products (eg horticulture, fishery and processed foods) are also going to grow in the future, which implies that China needs to continue restructuring its agricultural sector as the economy moves towards globalisation. The results also show that the opportunities from China's economic growth for the rest of world are projected to far surpass the adverse effects. With the exception of Russia, it is predicted that Australia will be the single biggest winner from China's rise in world markets.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Authors
Scott Rozelle
Paragraphs

The goal of this study is to discuss why China and perhaps other developing countries may not need a refuge policy for Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We describe in detail the different elements that a nation, especially a developing one, should be considering when deciding if a refuge policy is needed. Drawing on a review of scientific data, economic analysis of other cases and a simulation exercise using a bio-economic model that we have produced to examine this question, we show that in the case of Bt cotton in China, the approach of not requiring special cotton refuges is defensible.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Authors
Scott Rozelle
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs
The KSP at Shorenstein APARC is pleased to announce a new Korean language librarian. Kyungmi Chun begins her work as the Korean Studies Librarian in the East Asia Library on February 1, 2007. Kyungmi earned her doctoral degree in Information Science at the University of North Texas in 1999, an MLS degree from the University of Tennessee, and a bachelor's degree in history from Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea. Kyungmi has served as the Korean Specialist Librarian in the University of Hawaii's Asian Collection since 1992. During her more than 14 years at the University of Hawaii, Kyungmi's responsibilities have included collection development and management, reference and public services for the Korean Collection. Beyond her breadth of work experiences in academic libraries, Kyungmi will bring her boundless enthusiasm and a solid work ethic for the building of our new collection in Korean Studies.
All News button
1
-

Professor Dittmer received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1971. His scholarly expertise is the study of contemporary China. He teaches courses on contemporary China, Northeast Asia, and the Pacific Rim.

His current research interests include a study of the impact of reform on Chinese communist authority, a survey of patterns of informal politics in East Asia, and a project on the China-Taiwan-US triangle in the context of East Asian regional politics. Professor Dittmer's recently published books and monographs include Sino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications (University of Washington Press, 1992), China's Quest for National Identity (with Samuel Kim, Cornell University Press, 1993), China Under Modernization (Westview Press, 1994), and South Asia's Nuclear Crisis (M. E. Sharpe, 2005.)

Dr. Dittmer's talk is the second seminar of the winter quarter South Asia Colloquium Series.

Philippines Conference Room

Lowell Dittmer Professor, Political Science Speaker University of California, Berkeley
Seminars
-

The islamization process in Pakistan is at the core of the contradictions and identity conflict of Pakistan. It is the permanent attempt to rewrite the history whose founding fathers intended to make the homeland for the Muslims of the Indian Subcontinent, much the against the will of the clergy. However it is also an instrument of perpetuation in power of a largely secular military, which constantly manipulates Islamic symbols.

Although widely discussed, the process of islamization in Pakistan has remained relatively limited. No elected legislature went beyond the expression of the idea of the supremacy of the Islamic law. No elected legislature ever passed a somewhat substantial provision. Despite an increasingly strong, or at least vocal religious pressure, the constitution and the legislation of the Pakistani state are still based on a compromise between modernist institutions and ever more pressing religious demands, yet still limited. The supremacy of the Sharia is regularly reaffirmed, yet its implementation does not progress.

The presentation will analyze the impact of the islamization policies, less however on the legal and constitutional system than on the economic, political and social life of Pakistan. Starting from the observation that the islamization process is more limited that it may seem, the presentation will draw on to say that this process reinforces more than it challenges the existing political and social order, and its most salient political expression, the current military regime, by preventing, on the one side the emergence of any real alternative political project and, although in a more pragmatic manner, by bringing back in mainstream politics the fraction of the social body which could possibly be tempted by more radical means of actions.

In this perspective, four dimensions will be more specifically studied: 1) The evolution of the role of religious movements and parties within the Pakistani state; 2) The relationship between these same religious movements and parties and the Pakistani establishment; 3) The specific role of the madrasas in this relation; 4) The relation the religious parties entertains with democracy.

Frederic Grare is a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He will lead a project assessing U.S. and European policies toward Pakistan and, where appropriate, recommending alternatives with Ashley J. Tellis and George Perkovich. Grare will focus on the tension between stability and democratization in Pakistan, including challenges of sectarian conflict, Islamist political mobilization, and educational reform. Grare also will facilitate interactions between U.S. experts and officials and European counterparts on the main policy challenges in South Asia.

Grare is a leading expert and writer on South Asia, having served most recently in the French embassy in Pakistan and from 1999 to 2003 in New Delhi as director of the Centre for Social Sciences and Humanities. Grare has written extensively on security issues, Islamist movements, and sectarian conflict in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He also has edited the volume, India, China, Russia: Intricacies of an Asian Triangle.

His most recent publications include: "India, China, Russia: Intricacies of an Asian Triangle, with Gilles Boquerat"(eds), (New Delhi, India Research Press, 2003); "Pakistan and the Afghan Conflict, 1979-1985: At the Turn of the Cold War" (Karachi, Oxford University Press, 2003); "Political Islam in the Indian Subcontinent: The Jamaat-i-Islami" (New Delhi, Manohar, 2001)

Grare has an advanced degree from Paris Institut d'Etudes Politiques and received his Ph.D. from the Graduate Institute of International Studies.

Dr. Grare's talk is the first seminar of the winter quarter South Asia Colloquium Series.

Philippines Conference Room

Frederic Grare Visiting Scholar Speaker Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Seminars
-

China once again is in the midst of a major reshuffling of leadership. The upcoming 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will form a new Politburo and its Standing Committee. While the current top leaders, including Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, will most likely remain in power for the next term, a new generation of leaders, known as the "Fifth Generation," is poised to emerge in the national leadership.

Candidates to succeed Hu, Wen and other top leaders will become known within a year. Dr. Li will present his analysis of who the front-runners of the Fifth Generation are, how the selection of the possible successors reflects the changing nature of Chinese elite politics, in what aspects this rising generation of leaders differs from their predecessors, and how these differences will change the way in which China will be governed.

Cheng Li is the William R. Kenan Professor of Government at Hamilton College in New York and a visiting fellow at the newly-established John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Dr. Li grew up in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States where he received an M.A. in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Princeton University. He is the author of Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform, and Chinas Leaders: The New Generation, and the editor of the recent book, Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The Sino-U.S. Educational Exchange 1978-2003. Dr. Li is also a columnist for the Stanford University journal, China Leadership Monitor.

Dr. Li has advised a wide range of U.S. government, education, research, business and not-for-profit organizations on work in China. Dr. Li is a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a trustee of the Institute of Current World Affairs, a member of the Academic Advisory Group of the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations' Task Force on U.S. policy toward China, a member of Committee of 100, and a member of the U.S. National Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

This talk is part of the "China's Year of Decision" colloquium series sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Philippines Conference Room

Cheng Li William R. Kenan Professor of Government Speaker Hamilton College
Seminars
-

Paul Godwin's research focuses on Chinese security policy and defense modernization. His articles include "China's Defense Establishment: The Hard Lessons of Incomplete Modernization" and "The PLA's Leap into the 21st Century: Implications for the U.S." He is a frequent contributor to journals and edited volumes on China's military. In 1987 he was a visiting professor at t he Chinese People's Liberation Army National Defense University in Beijing. He received his Ph.D. in political science form University of Minnesota.

This talk is part of the "China's Year of Decision" colloquium series sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Philippines Conference Room

Paul H.B. Godwin Professor of International Affairs Speaker National War College (ret.)
Seminars
-

Two contradictory trends are emerging in China's countryside: one is an attempt to increase upper level control over village finances to reduce peasant burdens and curb cadre corruption; the other is a new policy to require the village party secretary to stand for popular election, in addition to the village committee head. Based on recent fieldwork in China's countryside, Jean Oi will describe the fiscal problems that emerged as the reforms cut peasant burdens and how the new "two-ballot system" works for the selection of village leaders. She will then consider whether these two policy trends are creating new and potentially more serious problems for local governance.

Jean Oi is author of Rural China Takes Off: Institutional Foundations of Economic Reform.

This talk is part of the "China's Year of Decision" colloquium series sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Photo by Jesse Warren

Philippines Conference Room

Department of Political Science
Stanford University
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-26044

(650) 723-2843 (650) 725-9401
0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics
jean_oi_headshot.jpg PhD

Jean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a Senior Fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Professor Oi is also the founding Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the Department of Government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

Her work focuses on comparative politics, with special expertise on political economy and the process of reform in transitional systems. Oi has written extensively on China's rural politics and political economy. Her State and Peasant in Contemporary China (University of California Press, 1989) examined the core of rural politics in the Mao period—the struggle over the distribution of the grain harvest—and the clientelistic politics that ensued. Her Rural China Takes Off (University of California Press, 1999 and Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 1999) examines the property rights necessary for growth and coined the term “local state corporatism" to describe local-state-led growth that has been the cornerstone of China’s development model. 

She has edited a number of conference volumes on key issues in China’s reforms. The first was Growing Pains: Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation (Brookings Institution Press, 2010), co-edited with Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, which examined the earlier phases of reform. Most recently, she co-edited with Thomas Fingar, Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future (Stanford University Press, 2020). The volume examines the difficult choices and tradeoffs that China leaders face after forty years of reform, when the economy has slowed and the population is aging, and with increasing demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits.

Oi also works on the politics of corporate restructuring, with a focus on the incentives and institutional constraints of state actors. She has published three edited volumes related to this topic: one on China, Going Private in China: The Politics of Corporate Restructuring and System Reform (Shorenstein APARC, 2011); one on Korea, co-edited with Byung-Kook Kim and Eun Mee Kim, Adapt, Fragment, Transform: Corporate Restructuring and System Reform in Korea (Shorenstein APARC, 2012); and a third on Japan, Syncretism: The Politics of Economic Restructuring and System Reform in Japan, co-edited with Kenji E. Kushida and Kay Shimizu (Brookings Institution, 2013). Other more recent articles include “Creating Corporate Groups to Strengthen China’s State-Owned Enterprises,” with Zhang Xiaowen, in Kjeld Erik Brodsgard, ed., Globalization and Public Sector Reform in China (Routledge, 2014) and "Unpacking the Patterns of Corporate Restructuring during China's SOE Reform," co-authored with Xiaojun Li, Economic and Political Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2018.

Oi continues her research on rural finance and local governance in China. She has done collaborative work with scholars in China, including conducting fieldwork on the organization of rural communities, the provision of public goods, and the fiscal pressures of rapid urbanization. This research is brought together in a co-edited volume, Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization (Brookings Institution Shorenstein APARC Series, 2017), with Karen Eggleston and Wang Yiming. Included in this volume is her “Institutional Challenges in Providing Affordable Housing in the People’s Republic of China,” with Niny Khor. 

As a member of the research team who began studying in the late 1980s one county in China, Oi with Steven Goldstein provides a window on China’s dramatic change over the decades in Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County (Stanford University Press, 2018). This volume assesses the later phases of reform and asks how this rural county has been able to manage governance with seemingly unchanged political institutions when the economy and society have transformed beyond recognition. The findings reveal a process of adaptive governance and institutional agility in the way that institutions actually operate, even as their outward appearances remain seemingly unchanged.

Selected Multimedia

Director of the China Program
Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Date Label
Jean Oi Speaker
Seminars
-

When Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao assumed power in 2002, they immediately put a new populist and egalitarian spin on Chinese policy pronouncements. To the surprise of many, they then followed through with a systematic reorientation of economic policy in a "left" direction. Policy has shifted away from growth at all costs, and toward policies that favor regional redistribution, reduce urban bias and support rural development. Budget allocations for health and education have increased, and the commitment to the environment has been stepped up.

So far, these policies can be characterized as moderate and overdue efforts to address problems that emerged in the course of rapid economic growth. But there is implicit tension with pro-growth policies. Politically, Hu and Wen's policies balanced those of Jiang Zemin's coalition of "winners." At the 17th Party Congress in 2007, Hu will attempt to consolidate his power and redefine the policy direction.

Barry Naughton teaches at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. His new book The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth. was published by MIT Press this year. He received his Ph.D. in economics and M.A. in international relations from Yale University and holds a B.A. in Chinese language and literature from University of Washington.

This talk is part of the "China's Year of Decision" colloquium series sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies

Philippines Conference Room

Barry Naughton So Kwanlok Professor of Chinese and International Affairs Speaker University of California, San Diego
Seminars
Subscribe to Northeast Asia