Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing
Is unipolarity--American primacy--good or bad for the world? For Southeast Asia? For Indonesia? How dangerous or constructive is the Bush doctrine of preemption? Should the U.S. try to spread democracy abroad? If not, why not? If so, why and how--by example, persuasion, force? Has the war in Iraq squandered American "soft power"? How has that conflict affected the campaign against terrorism in Southeast Asia? Has the U.S. been ignoring the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)? Or has ASEAN become so irrelevant that it deserves to be ignored? In the run-up to Indonesia's presidential election in April 2004, should the U.S. support the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri? Or would that only strengthen her Islamist opponents by enabling them to portray her as an American pawn? What grade does the Bush administration's policy toward North Korea deserve? These are among the questions to be addressed in a wide-ranging evaluation of what the United States is doing, should be doing, and should not be doing in Asia.
Jusuf Wanandi has long been Indonesia's best-known analyst of Southeast Asian regionalism and the politics and foreign policies of Indonesia and the United States. He holds leadership positions in the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, the Prasetiya Mulya Graduate School of Management in Jakarta, and the Foundation of Panca Bhakti University in Pontianak (West Kalimantan). He heads the company that publishes Indonesia's leading English-language daily, The Jakarta Post. He co-founded Indonesia's most successful foreign-affairs think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. He has co-authored or co-edited more than a dozen books, including Europe and the Asia Pacific (1998), Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region (1993), and Asia and the Major Powers (1988).
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
5:30 pm registration 6:00 pm program followed by reception Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Founders' Room, 5th Floor, San Francisco $12 Members of the Asia Society $15 Non-members $8 Student with ID Please contact that Asia Society to register for this event. They can be reached at 415-421-8707. Experts on Indonesia's political, social, and economic climate will share their insights on the challenges and opportunities ahead for the world's fourth most populous country. Organized in conjunction with the upcoming release of Asia Society's Asian Update on decentralization in Indonesia, this panel will assess some of the key issues facing the largest Muslim society in the world. With presidential elections scheduled for April 2004, what progress has been made toward political reforms and increased accountability in Indonesia? As regional conflicts in Aceh and Papua continue to simmer and expanded military authority is being debated, how will Indonesia balance its needs for effective central authority and greater regional autonomy? Will transferring power and resources downward merely decentralize corruption? How will Indonesia's economy fare in the face of the war in Iraq, sagging American and global markets, and the prospect of higher energy prices? How have the AmericanÑled wars against terrorism and the Iraqi regime affected Indonesia's domestic politics and relations with the United States? Please join us for a timely and informative briefing on political, economic, and social developments in Indonesia today.
Public Policy Institute of California, 500 Washington Street, Founders' Room, 5th floor, San Francisco, CA
At Stanford, in addition to his work for the Southeast Asia Program and his affiliations with CDDRL and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Donald Emmerson has taught courses on Southeast Asia in East Asian Studies, International Policy Studies, and Political Science. He is active as an analyst of current policy issues involving Asia. In 2010 the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars awarded him a two-year Research Associateship given to “top scholars from across the United States” who “have successfully bridged the gap between the academy and policy.”
Emmerson’s research interests include Southeast Asia-China-US relations, the South China Sea, and the future of ASEAN. His publications, authored or edited, span more than a dozen books and monographs and some 200 articles, chapters, and shorter pieces. Recent writings include The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century (ed., 2020); “‘No Sole Control’ in the South China Sea,” in Asia Policy (2019); ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done? (ed., 2018); “Singapore and Goliath?,” in Journal of Democracy (2018); “Mapping ASEAN’s Futures,” in Contemporary Southeast Asia (2017); and “ASEAN Between China and America: Is It Time to Try Horsing the Cow?,” in Trans-Regional and –National Studies of Southeast Asia (2017).
Earlier work includes “Sunnylands or Rancho Mirage? ASEAN and the South China Sea,” in YaleGlobal (2016); “The Spectrum of Comparisons: A Discussion,” in Pacific Affairs (2014); “Facts, Minds, and Formats: Scholarship and Political Change in Indonesia” in Indonesian Studies: The State of the Field (2013); “Is Indonesia Rising? It Depends” in Indonesia Rising (2012); “Southeast Asia: Minding the Gap between Democracy and Governance,” in Journal of Democracy (April 2012); “The Problem and Promise of Focality in World Affairs,” in Strategic Review (August 2011); An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and Its Reasons (2011); Asian Regionalism and US Policy: The Case for Creative Adaptation (2010); “The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism’” and “Islamism: Pros, Cons, and Contexts” in Islamism: Conflicting Perspectives on Political Islam (2009); “Crisis and Consensus: America and ASEAN in a New Global Context” in Refreshing U.S.-Thai Relations (2009); and Hard Choices: Security, Democracy, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia (edited, 2008).
Prior to moving to Stanford in 1999, Emmerson was a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he won a campus-wide teaching award. That same year he helped monitor voting in Indonesia and East Timor for the National Democratic Institute and the Carter Center. In the course of his career, he has taken part in numerous policy-related working groups focused on topics related to Southeast Asia; has testified before House and Senate committees on Asian affairs; and been a regular at gatherings such as the Asia Pacific Roundtable (Kuala Lumpur), the Bali Democracy Forum (Nusa Dua), and the Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore). Places where he has held various visiting fellowships, including the Institute for Advanced Study and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Emmerson has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale and a BA in international affairs from Princeton. He is fluent in Indonesian, was fluent in French, and has lectured and written in both languages. He has lesser competence in Dutch, Javanese, and Russian. A former slam poet in English, he enjoys the spoken word and reads occasionally under a nom de plume with the Not Yet Dead Poets Society in Redwood City, CA. He and his wife Carolyn met in high school in Lebanon. They have two children. He was born in Tokyo, the son of U.S. Foreign Service Officer John K. Emmerson, who wrote the Japanese Thread among other books.
How is the American-led war in Iraq affecting Asian countries and their relations with the United States? Is a clash of civilizations underway? Will Islamist rage in Southeast Asia spawn terrorist attacks on Americans there? Will Islamist parties in Indonesia be able to ride this wave of anger into power in the elections to be held in April 2004? Will the regime in North Korea take advantage of American preoccupations in Iraq and Afghanistan to escalate tensions in Northeast Asia? How will the economies of Southeast and Northeast Asia be affected by the conflict in Iraq? Will Washington's priority on ousting Saddam Hussein undermine its effort to stabilize Afghanistan? And what will the repercussions in Asia be if, against the expectation of many observers, the Iraq war turns out to be short and the seeds of Iraqi democracy are successfully sown?
Founders Room, 5th floor
Public Policy Institute of California
500 Washington Street, San Francisco
Command economies gave Communist-era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth. Markets and privatization inject new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders. These opportunities depend on the extent of regime change and barriers to asset appropriation. Regime change varies from the survival of the entire party hierarchy to its rapid collapse and defeat in competitive elections. Barriers to asset appropriation vary with the extent, pace, and form of privatization, and the concentration and liquidity of assets. Different combinations of such circumstances jointly affect the extent to which elites obtain ownership of control of privatized assets, use political office to extract larger incomes, move into salaried elite occupations, or fall out of the elite altogether. Regime change and barriers to asset appropriation affect change at the national level, but outcomes vary across economic sectors because of characteristics of organizations, elite positions, and assets. This elementary theory serves to integrate varied findings from recent research on Central Europe, China, and Russia, and yields predictions for other regions.
North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation -- though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993-1994 -- is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.
Despite these challenges, good prospects still exist for a diplomatic resolution to the North Korea problem. North Korea's dire economic circumstances have made it more vulnerable to outside pressure at a time when its neighbor nations and the United States are increasingly concerned about its nuclear ambition. Military means would not only exact huge human casualties but also deepen U.S. estrangement from Seoul and diminish prospects for developing a joint strategy with other Asian powers.
Given the urgency and complexity of the current situation, appointment of a special coordinator for North Korean policy could help the administration to formulate a unified policy, sell it to Congress, coordinate it with allies, and present it to Pyongyang. In any event, a key requirement will be real "give and take" negotiations with South Korea to arrive at a coordinated strategy.
In the end, Pyongyang must choose: economic assistance and security assurance on the condition that all nuclear activities be abandoned, or dire consequences if nuclear programs continue. Any new agreement, however, must avoid the deficiencies of the 1994 Agreed Framework. It must be more verifiable, less readily reversible, more comprehensive, more politically defensible, and more enforceable through the involvement of North Korea's neighbors.
Following the successful migration of semiconductor foundries business to Taiwan, IC design houses are now flowing to Asia. As a result, the opportunities for venture capital investments in Greater China are increasing. Based on on-the-ground experience gained during the past ten years dealing with high-tech venture businesses between Silicon Valley and Asia, Jesse Chen will share his unique perspective on the changing dynamics of risks, timing, business sectors etc. for optimizing investments in the high tech industry in Greater China.
Jesse Chen is managing director of Maton Venture. Maton is a global venture with strategic investors and VC partners from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Taiwan. Launched in October 1997, Maton now has thirty-two portfolio companies across Semiconductor, Communication, Software and other Information Technology industries. As of December 2002, three have gone public and five have been acquired. Jesse currently serves as board member for eleven companies.
Before Maton, Jesse co-founded BusLogic, Inc. in 1988 and served as CEO and president until it was acquired in 1996. BusLogic designed and marketed ASIC, Board and Software for the computer storage industry. Under Jesse's leadership, BusLogic achieved twenty-two quarters of consecutive growth and profitability, yielding BusLogic's first investor more than sixty times return of investment within six years. BusLogic is now part of IBM.
Jesse also served as chairman of the Global Monte Jade Science and Technology Association from 1998 to 2000 and served as Chairman of Monte Jade West from 1997 to 1998. Monte Jade has more than one thousand high tech corporate members throughout North America and Asia and more than fifty are public companies.
Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing
Asked his reaction to the Iraq war, the accused Bali bomber Amrozi said: "It just goes to show I was not wrong to bomb." The October 2002 bombings of two nightclubs on Bali were the worst act of terrorism since 9/11. 202 people died; 350 were seriously injured. Preliminary analysis of what the suspected perpetrators have said about the case suggests that they were motivated mainly by deep hatred of the United States. This lecture will explore the ideology and psychology of the accused bombers and, more broadly, the likely impact of the war in Iraq on terrorism in Southeast Asia. Greg Fealy is a leading specialist on Islam and the history and politics of Indonesia. His publications include two co-edited books, Nahdlatul Ulama, Traditionalism and Modernity in Indonesia and Local Power and Politics in Indonesia: Decentralisation and Democratisation. He has worked as an Indonesia analyst for the Office of National Assessments in Canberra and as a consultant for the Asia Foundation and the U.S. Agency for International Development in Jakarta. The history of Indonesia's largest Muslim party was the subject of his dissertation (PhD, Monash University, Australia, 1998).
Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing
Seeking to tap the huge potential of Greater China, many in Asia seek to replicate the Silicon Valley model. Yet, as much art as it is science, successful VC investing has proven to be uneven in Asia. Why? With respect to innovation, why is it that Asians have good reputations for replicating but not creating cutting edge technology? Is there a disconnect when this is compared to the experiences of U.S. high-tech icons, such as Intel and Apple, filled with Asian-born -- and in many cases educated -- scientists and businessmen? How does the Silicon Valley experience track with Singapore's determined efforts to promote creativity? What lessons, if any, are applicable to Greater China? With respect to entrepreneurship in Greater China, it is clear that Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Mainland are full of hard-driving individuals seeking to build wealth and prosperity. However, in some ways, is there perhaps an overabundance of entrepreneurship? Are there too many in this part of the world who want to be in charge and too few to follow and implement? How can a more productive form of entrepreneurship be fostered?
About the speaker
Dr. Ta-lin Hsu is chairman and founder of H&Q Asia Pacific (H&QAP), a premier private equity firm investing in Asia and the U.S. since 1985. Through ten offices in the region, H&QAP invests in a variety of high-growth sectors, including technology, biotech, financial services, media and branded consumer products. H&QAP manages sixteen funds with approximately $1.6 billion in assets invested in over 250 portfolio companies. Three of these funds comprise $1.1 billion in assets and invest on a diversified basis across the Asia Pacific region while the remaining thirteen funds are country funds.
Dr. Hsu holds numerous advisory positions with governmental and industry organizations. He was a founding member of the prestigious Technology Review Board of Taiwan, a group established to advise the Executive Yuan on all technology matters. Dr. Hsu was also a founder of the Monte Jade Science & Technology organization, the premier nonprofit organization promoting technology exchange between Taiwan and the U.S. He was also a founder and first president of the Bay Area Chapter of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, the largest Chinese-American engineering society in the U.S.
Dr. Hsu received his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from the University of California, Berkeley following a M.S. in electrophysics from the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn and a B.S. in physics from National Taiwan University. He was a staff scientist at Allied Chemical for two years before joining IBM Research Laboratories in 1973. Dr. Hsu worked at IBM for twelve years, reaching the position of senior manager in the research division -- with corporate responsibility for advanced research and development of mass storage systems and technology -- before joining Hambrecht & Quist as a general partner in 1985.
Dr. Hsu is an Advisory Board Member of the the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Asia Foundation.
Philippines Conference Room
C. Richard D'Amato is the vice chairman of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, a commission established by Congress to review the national security implications of U.S. trade relations with China. Formerly a delegate to the General Assembly of the State of Maryland, he is the president of a consulting firm that represents American corporations on strategic planning and international trade matters. He is also a retired captain in the United States Navy Reserve, a position that brought him a variety of assignments, including attache duty at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, on proliferation issues and military-to-military initiatives in March 1997; service in the Battle Group Command Staff of the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea during Operation Desert Shield; serving as an operations officer directing air drops into Bosnia and Sarajevo; and service on the planning staff of the newly created Asia-Pacific Center, which is a conference and study center under the commander of U.S. Forces for the Pacific, in Honolulu, Hawaii. Recently, Mr. D'Amato served as a member of the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission, a congressionally created commission charged with studying the nature, causes and consequences of the United States merchandise trade and current account deficits.
For ten years, beginning in 1988, Mr. D'Amato was the Democratic counsel for the Committee on Appropriations of the United States Senate. He was responsible for coordinating and managing the annual appropriations bills and other legislation on policy and funding of U.S. international operations and programs, including trade and defense and the full range of foreign activities of the U.S. government.
Mr. D'Amato has also served as senior foreign policy counsel for Senator Robert C. Byrd. In this capacity, Mr. D'Amato drafted the resolution that set Senate standards for international global climate change treaty negotiations. He also worked on a wide array of issues affecting U.S. international economic and political interests, including U.S.-Japan auto trade talks; World Trade Organization review legislation; U.S. involvement and funding of operations in Bosnia, Somalia, and Rwanda; and burden-sharing agreements during the Gulf War. Between 1980 and 1987, Mr. D'Amato served as the policy director for the Majority Leader, Senator Robert C. Byrd, for political, economic, and security policies. In this position, Mr. D'Amato supervised all work on a number of important legislative initiatives, including the 1988 Omnibus Trade Bill and the "Super 301" provision. Mr. D'Amato also wrote key legislation dealing with U.S.-Japan economic relations. During his career on Capitol Hill, Mr. D'Amato also served as the co-director of the Senate Arms Control Observer Group.
Mr. D'Amato began his career first as the legislative director for Congressman James Jeffords (R-VT) between 1975 and 1978, and beginning in 1978, as the legislative assistant and then chief of staff for Senator Abraham Ribicoff (D-CT) until 1980.
Mr. D'Amato has been very active in other aspects of public service, including an appointment as an assistant professor of government for the United States Naval Academy between 1968 and 1971, during which he was assistant varsity basketball coach and the sailing coach. He was responsible for the creation of an annual scholarship with the YWCA for college bound African American women and was the chairman of a local charitable hunger relief action organization in 1996, 1997, and 1998, which was a part of the nationwide "Share Our Strength" organization, the most successful hunger relief effort in the United States. In addition, he is active in the boating community in Annapolis, where he and his wife, Dorothy, have lived for thirty years.
Mr. D'Amato received his B.A. from Cornell University in 1964, graduating cum laude in government. He serves now on the Board of Trustees' Council for Cornell University. Mr. D'Amato received his M.A. and M.A.L.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Boston in 1967, and received his J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center in 1980.
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
