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This seminar will discuss the marriage distortion and the associated welfare loss caused by the One-Child Policy (OCP) in China. Using the variation in the ethnicity-specific assigned birth quotas and different fertility penalties across provinces over time, we first show that the OCP induced a significantly higher unmarried rate and more interethnic marriages. Using sufficient statistics approach, we then derive a formula for the social welfare loss caused by the OCPinduced lower fertility and marriage distortion, and it only depends on the estimated reducedform elasticities. Our estimates suggest that the associated welfare loss is around 3.7 percent of annual household income, with marriage distortion contributing 30 percent of this. These findings highlight the unintended behavioral responses to public policies and corresponding social consequences.

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Yi Zhou is a PhD candidate in Demography at University of California – Berkeley. His research interests include Economic Demography, Formal Demography and Health Economics. He received a M.A. in Economics and a B.B.A. in Accounting from Peking University."

 
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Yi Zhou Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
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616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
(650) 723-9404 (650) 723-6530
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rennie_moon.jpg Ph.D.

Rennie J. Moon joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center as the 2016-17 Koret Fellow in the Korea Program.  Moon is an associate professor at the Underwood International College at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea. Her research explores the interrelationships among globalization, migration and citizenship, and internationalization of higher education.

Moon, a graduate of Stanford’s Graduate School of Education, Ph.D. ‘09, has collaborated with Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin on a multiyear research project that examines diversity in higher education in East Asia. She co-edited the book Internationalizing Higher Education in Korea: Challenges and Opportunities in Comparative Perspective published earlier this year. Her articles have appeared in academic journals including Comparative Education ReviewComparative EducationAustralian Journal of International Affairs, and Pacific Affairs.

As a Korean-American scholar, Moon has written editorials and columns in both English and Korean on higher education in Korea and Asia for the Nikkei Asian Review, The Conversation, East Asia Forum, Australian Outlook, Dong-A Daily, MK News, and other media outlets.

Supported by the Koret Foundation, the Koret Fellowship brings professionals to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary Korean affairs. In 2015, the fellowship expanded its focus to include social, cultural and educational issues in North and South Korea, and aims to identify emerging scholars working on those areas.

During her fellowship, Moon will also give public talks and be a lead organizer of the Koret Workshop, an international conference held annually at Stanford.

Moon holds a doctorate and master’s degree in international comparative education from Stanford and a bachelor’s degree in French from Wellesley College.

Visiting Associate Professor
2016-2017 Koret Fellow
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What is the logic of China’s foreign policy decision-making? Thomas Fingar explores how security and economic development have driven China’s foreign policy stance over the last 35 years. Even as the scope and scale of China’s engagement with the world has undergone a sea change, China’s calculus has remained consistent: How will a particular foreign policy choice cost or contribute to China’s economic growth and national security?

 

Multimedia for this event.


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Thomas Fingar is the Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From 2005 to 2008, he served concurrently as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989–1994), and chief of the China Division (1986–1989). Fingar’s most recent books are The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform (Stanford University Press, 2016); and Uneasy Partnership: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Age of Reform (Stanford University Press, 2017, forthcoming).


This event is part of the winter colloquia series entitled "China: Going Global" sponsored by Shorenstein APARC's China Program.

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Beijing’s new Silk Road initiative links old trade corridors from Asia to Africa and Europe. Many perceive that President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative as well as China’s many other trade, investment and finance projects transcend their economic calculus and reflect Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions to reposition China’s standing on the global stage. The China Program brings leading experts to explore the drivers and motivators of China’s international initiatives, their reach and scope as well as the implications of China’s increasing activism on the world stage.

http://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/research/china-going-global

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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<i>Shorenstein APARC Fellow</i>, FSI, Stanford University
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It is now commonplace to think of India's rise as a great power as inevitable. The Indian economy has demonstrated impressive growth during the last twenty-five odd years; India remains one of the few large economies that continues to grow at high single-digit rates despite the global economic slowdown; Indian military capabilities are significant, impressive and expanding; and not surprisingly then, New Delhi seeks a place at the high tables of global governance. The United States has in recent decades placed a strategic bet on India, supporting its rise in the expectation that this will advance American interests in Asia and globally. But will India meet these expectations? In fact, can India become the great power that it seeks to be or is it always destined to remain a great power in waiting, forever promised but never arriving?

Tellis will address this question and its consequences for peace, prosperity and security throughout the Indo-Pacific region.   

 

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Ashley J. Tellis is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. While on assignment to the U.S. Department of State as senior adviser to the under secretary of state for political affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India.

Previously, he was commissioned into the Foreign Service and served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. embassy in New Delhi. He also served on the National Security Council staff as special assistant to the president and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia.

Prior to his government service, Tellis was senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and professor of policy analysis at the RAND Graduate School.

He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (RAND, 2001) and co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (RAND, 2000). He is the research director of the Strategic Asia Program at the National Bureau of Asian Research and co-editor of the program’s thirteen most recent annual volumes, including this year’s Strategic Asia 2016–17: Understanding Strategic Cultures in the Asia-Pacific. In addition to numerous Carnegie and RAND reports, his academic publications have appeared in many edited volumes and journals, and he is frequently called to testify before Congress.

Tellis is a member of several professional organizations related to defense and international studies including the Council on Foreign Relations, the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the United States Naval Institute, and the Navy League of the United States. He has earned a PhD and MA from the University of Chicago and an MA and BA from the University of Bombay. 

About the colloquia:

In 2014, Indian voters gave Narendra Modi and the BJP a mandate to accelerate India’s economic reforms and revitalize its foreign relations, in particular with the United States and with partners in East Asia. But the pace and depth of reforms and economic transformation have not met the high expectations, despite strong GDP performance. Economic growth remains uneven, job creation sluggish, and massive infrastructural and administrative problems continue to trouble many sectors of the economy. After twenty-five years of economic reforms, India’s potential as a new global industrial hub has still not been realized and its vast resources of labor and talent remain underdeveloped.

During the 2017 winter and spring quarters Shorenstein APARC and the Center for South Asia will host a series of lectures and discussions that explore what makes India democratic and dynamic, and the obstacles that prevent the country from realizing its enormous potential.

Also, in 2017, the next Global Entrepreneur Summit will be in India, sequel to the 2016 Stanford-hosted Summit. This colloquium will help prepare for that event by reaching out to scholars, students, interested stakeholders, business leaders and others in the Bay Area.

This colloquia is co-sponsored with the Stanford Center for South Asia 

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In 2014, Indian voters gave Narendra Modi and the BJP a mandate to accelerate India’s economic reforms and revitalize its foreign relations, in particular with the United States and with partners in East Asia. But, the pace and depth of reforms and economic transformation have not met the high expectations, despite strong GDP performance. Economic growth remains uneven, job creation sluggish, and massive infrastructural and administrative problems continue to trouble many sectors of the economy.

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A hot springs summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin next week hopes to solve the 70-year-old dispute over an isolated string of islands that Russian and Japanese nationalists both claim as their own, according to Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Read the commentary piece in Foreign Policy here.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit on Sept. 4, 2016, Hangzhou, China. | Photo credit: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit on Sept. 4, 2016, Hangzhou, China. | Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
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As 2017 approaches, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center documents highlights from the 2015-16 academic year. The latest edition of the Center Overview, entitled "Challenges to Globalization," includes research, people, events and outreach features, and is now available for download online.

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A container is loaded onto a ship docked at the terminal port in Singapore, June 2016. | ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images
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In China, rapidly changing prices and structures of the factors of production, cause a series of shocks and opportunities to Chinese manufacturing firms. The traditional image of ‘Made in China’ is undergoing profound changes to counteract the economic shocks. Meanwhile, the supply-side structural reforms proposed by the Chinese government in recent years, provide a basket of policies and financial support for the firms to cope with the pressure of the economic downside risks. Unfortunately, due to the difficulty in collecting data from microeconomic units, both the real status of firms (especially SMEs), or the performance and utility of government policies are difficult to evaluate objectively, not to mention making effective improvement. Therefore, began in 2015, Wuhan University cooperated with Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Tsinghua University and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, launched the first ‘China Enterprises - Employees Survey’ (CEES), and the China CEES Database has established. So far, the Database has collected data from more than 1121 Chinese manufacturing sample enterprises and more than 9389 matched sample employees on various aspects, including firm’s basic information, production, sales, innovation, finance, quality and workers for more than 1400 variables in 3 consecutive years (2013, 2014, 2015). The data shows that, Chinese manufacturing sector is undergoing huge changes these years, challenges are there, but more opportunities lie in innovation activities.

 

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Cheng Hong joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2016–17 academic year from the Institute of Quality Development Strategy at Wuhan University, where he serves as a Professor of Economics and Dean of the Institute.  His research interests encompass China’s economic transition, quality of economic development, product quality governance and regulation, and entrepreneurship and innovation. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, he will participate in a research on the phenomenon of ‘zombie firms’ emerging in China.  Cheng is Director of Management Committee of China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES). He is also the Founding Editor of Journal of Macro-Quality Research since 2013. He received the First China Quality Award Nomination from the Chinese government in 2013.  He received a Ph.D. in economics from Wuhan University in 1999.

Doll Conference Room (Room 320)
Gunn-SIEPR Building
366 Galvez Street, Stanford, CA 94305-6015
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616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
(650) 723-6530
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hong_cheng.jpg PhD

Cheng Hong joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2016–17 academic year from the Institute of Quality Development Strategy at Wuhan University, where he serves as a Professor of Economics and Dean of the Institute.

His research interests encompass China’s economic transition, quality of economic development, product quality governance and regulation, and entrepreneurship and innovation. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, he will participate in a research on the phenomenon of ‘zombie firms’ emerging in China.

Cheng is Director of Management Committee of China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES). He is also the Founding Editor of Journal of Macro-Quality Research since 2013. He received the First China Quality Award Nomination from the Chinese government in 2013.

He received a Ph.D. in economics from Wuhan University in 1999.

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