Originally published in the International Journal of Finance, volume 12, number 4, 2000. Reprinted with permission. Prior written permission is required for further use of this material. Hard copies of this reprint are available from Shorenstein APARC.

My argument in this paper is that the people of the People's Republic of China have acquired greater freedoms over the past twenty years, and that if China 's impressive rate of economic development continues,so will their liberties. In the fall of 1996, the journal The National Interest published an article of mine on the prospect for the growth of political and personal freedoms in China. This article contained a prediction that the organization Freedom House would rate China at least "Partly Free" by 2015, and offered evidence in support of that proposition. In the nearly five years since then, events have taken place, both favorable and unfavorable,that bear on my thesis.They are addressed in this text.There is also an analytical change: based on a recalculation, this article projects that China's GDP per capita will reach $7,500 by 2020 in 1998 international dollars. This leads to a revised forecast that Freedom House will rate China at least Partly Free by no later than 2020, rather than 2015 as proposed earlier. (It might appear that the date for China crossing the democracy threshold is slipping one year per year, but that results from the correction and not from a real change in China.) Of course,precision is not possible on such a topic,but the naming of a specific year has a logic and is useful for stimulating debate on a subject of the utmost importance. I do not argue that the path from here to there will be smooth politically,e ither domestically or internationally, but rather that the "end position " (that is, around 2020) will likely see a significant increase in political pluralism and personal liberties in China.

On May 4 and 5, 2000, health care leaders, professionals, and academics convened at the Bechtel Conference Center at Stanford University for the Health Care Conference 2000. Sponsored by the Comparative Health Care Policy Research Project at the Asia/Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), in cooperation with the Center for Health Policy (CHP), the conference was held for the purpose of discussing health care policies and issues facing nations today. With the pressures of rising costs, aging populations in industrialized countries, and rapid technological advancements, the need for an accessible, affordable, and effective health care system is urgent and greater than ever. The first conference of its kind at Shorenstein APARC, the Health Care Conference 2000 established a forum for candid discussion about the past, present, and future of health care. Over sixty participants attended the conference. The panel consisted of speakers from governmental institutions, for-profit and nonprofit organizations, universities, and research institutes. The first day of the conference featured a discussion on the evolution of the health care market in the United States, while the second day focused on the effects of market forces overseas, specifically in England, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Scotland, and Singapore. The 1990s marked an era of major health care reform. For many nations with socialized health care systems, it was a decade to explore alternative systems and to move toward privatization. The implications of such changes were discussed in detail at the conference. The Health Care Conference 2000 was a successful and informative meeting, which opened the doors for future discussions on issues concerning health care around the world. These proceedings present, in edited form, the remarks of all primary conference speakers. Please contact Shorenstein APARC if you have any questions about the conference, or about the Center's work in general.

In the last decade, one of the most admired institutions among industrialists and economic policymakers around the world has been the U.S. venture capital industry. A recent OECD (2000) report identified venture capital as a critical component for the success of entrepreneurial high-technology firms and recommended that all nations consider strategies for encouraging the availability of venture capital. With such admiration and encouragement from prestigious international organizations has come various attempts to create an indigenous venture capital industry. This article examines the efforts to create a venture capital industry in India.