Shorenstein APARC, the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KEIP) will host the fourteenth annual U.S.-Korea Academic Symposium on "The United States and South Korea: Reinvigorating the Partnership" at Stanford from October 23-24, 2003. The symposium brings together leading policymakers, scholars, and analysts from Washington and throughout the Asia-Pacific region to examine issues of mutual concern. Past symposia have been held at leading universities throughout the United States, including Columbia, Michigan, Georgetown, and Berkeley. Symposium proceedings are published in KEI's Academic Monograph, which is distributed to over two thousand of the world's leading Korea watchers.

Bechtel Conference Center

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Shorenstein APARC's Korean Studies Program, begun in September 2000 and led by Gi-Wook Shin, features weekly luncheon seminars on Korea-related issues, from war reporting to health care to democracy. Heavily attended by students and faculty alike, the series is often standing-room-only.

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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, November 12 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you.

Phillipines Conference Room

Jung-sun Park Assistant Professor, Asian Pacific Studies California State University
Seminars
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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, October 29 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you.

Phillipines Conference Room

John Duncan Professor, East Asian Language and Culture University of California, Los Angeles
Seminars
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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, October 8 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you. Chiho Sawada received his Ph.D. from Harvard in East Asian Languages and Civilizations, earned his B.A. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego, and did graduate research at Seoul National University and University of Tokyo.

Phillipines Conference Room

Chiho Sawada Korean Studies Research Fellow APARC
Seminars
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The Oksenberg Lecture honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001) longtime member of Shorenstein APARC, senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for International Studies, and an authority on China. Distinguished scholar, mentor to generations of students, senior government official, and a prominent force shaping American attitudes toward Asia, Professor Oksenberg was consistently outspoken about the need for the United States to engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes, annually, a distinguished individual who has helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

The Shorenstein Forum, which hosts this annual event, was established at the Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) in 1998, through the generosity of Walter H. Shorenstein. The Forum convenes policymakers, executives, journalists, and others who shape outcomes across Asia.

George P. Shultz has had a distinguished career in government, in academia, and in the world of business. He is one of a handful of individuals who have held four different federal cabinet posts; he has taught at three of this country's greatest universities; and for eight years he was president of a major engineering/construction company.

Bechtel Conference Center

George P. Shultz 60th Secretary of State and Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow Hoover Institution
Lectures
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8:30 AM, Bechtel Conference Center, First Floor, Encina Hall

WELCOME

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

KEYNOTE SPEECH: FROM SILICON VALLEY TO SHANGHAI: The Information Age Opens To Asia

James Morgan, CEO, Applied Materials, Inc.

CRISIS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

INDIA AS A DESTINATION FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING: Key Factors and Trends

Rafiq Dossani, Senior Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC

SOUTHEAST ASIA: A Region at Risk

Donald Emmerson, Senior Fellow, IIS

JAPAN'S PROLONGED ECONOMIC SLUMP: Explanations and Implications

Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, IIS

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

ASIA'S EMERGING HOTBEDS FOR INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow, IIS

William F. Miller, Senior Fellow Emeritus, IIS

Marguerite Gong Hancock, Associate Director, Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation & Entrepreneurship

ABOUT THE ASIA/PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER

Russell Hancock, Director of Programs, Shorenstein APARC

PLENARY SESSION

CHINA AFTER THE 16TH PARTY CONGRESS

Andrew Walder, Director, Shorenstein APARC

Lawrence Lau, Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development

Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics

Ramon Myers, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

CLOSING REMARKS

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Bechtel Conference Center

James Morgan CEO Keynote Speaker Applied Materials
Conferences
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The Chinese economy has had the highest rate of growth in the world in the past two decades. However, despite its rapid growth and the significant improvements in its financial system, serious risks and problems still exist in both the commercial banking sector and the stock market, that may potentially threaten the stable development and growth of the entire economy. In this paper, these risks and problems in the stock market and the commercial banking sector are identified. Possible solutions are then discussed. Finally, tax reforms are proposed that have the effects of (1) eliminating the double taxation on cash dividends from corporate profits; (2) encouraging the substitution of new equity for existing debt by corporations, which can lower the P/E ratios without lowering the stock prices and improve quality of commercial bank assets by reducing the probability of new nonperforming loans; and (3) attracting new and longer-term investors, both domestic and foreign, to the Chinese stock market. It is also shown that the proposed tax reforms will not result in a significant reduction in total fiscal revenue.

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Donald K. Emmerson
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August was a bloody month. There was barely time to mourn between the exploding bombs: first at the Marriott hotel in Jakarta on Aug. 5, at U.N. headquarters in Baghdad and on a bus in Jerusalem on Aug. 19, then the two in Bombay on Monday. These were the latest sites in a chronology of carnage running from Casablanca through Riyadh and Bali to Manhattan's crumbling towers.

Each atrocity involved local actors and local motives. Each was perceived differently by the local populace, and the local repercussions of each terrorist act varied widely. Yet all were attributed to a single global menace: jihad. For three years now, acts of violence done in Allah's name have made terrorism and Islam almost synonymous, not just in Westerners' vocabularies but around the world.

From this blight, who will rescue Islam?

The nearly reflexive association of Islam and terrorism is not simply the creation of rush-to-judgment pundits and politicians. Not when the terrorists proudly proclaim religious inspiration for their acts. Both Jerry Falwell and Osama bin Laden have maligned Islam. But it is, above all, the jihadists who have distilled their faith to sacred hatred - of Americans, Christians, Jews and the millions upon millions of moderate or secular Muslims who disdain this perversion from within.

Muslims respond in different ways to Islamist violence. In Jakarta a few days after 11 Indonesians and a Dutchman were killed in the blast at the Marriott, I met up with two Muslim friends. They were brimming with conspiracy theories. Why, they asked, had 20 Americans reportedly canceled their reservations before the bomb went off? Could these no-shows have known in advance of the attack? Why was the severed head of the alleged perpetrator later found on the hotel's fifth floor? Had the CIA planted it there? Why were arrests made so soon? Could the U.S., or perhaps the Indonesian military, have staged the event?

Behind their questions lay an unspoken one: How could Muslims have done such a thing?

It would be convenient if my two friends despised Americans and were products of Islamist schools. But both men hold advanced degrees from top universities in the U.S. and exhibit no obvious animosity toward Americans. That two such people could give voice to such dark misgivings about U.S. intentions shows that Islam is not alone in its association with violence.

The flip side of denial is demonization. For some in the West, the enemy is not jihadists but all Islamists. Never mind that the vast majority of Muslims who promote their faith do so peacefully. The PowerPoint charts of counter-terrorism experts that ignore Muslim diversity and feature the evil genius Bin Laden reinforce a distorted, top-down view of Islam.

Al Qaeda's responsibility is all too real. But local context matters. For jihad to succeed, an outside agitator needs inside sympathizers, and their receptivity to recruitment will depend on local circumstances. Recognizing that Muslim societies are autonomous and heterogeneous is a necessary first step to realizing that Bin Laden and his version of Islam aren't absolute control.

Defenders of Islam in the West stress the fact that most of its billion-plus adherents are moderates who reject violence. Such reassurance is far preferable to demonization. But understanding is not served by exaggerations - that Islam or Muslims are always peaceful, or that jihadists entirely lack sympathy in the Muslim world. In Muslim communities, extremist and mainstream views intersect in many places, including schools, mosques and organizations. It is in these myriad local settings that Islam's connection to violence will or won't be broken.

Regrettably, reassurance sometimes lapses into denial. In Indonesia recently, several leading Muslim figures urged journalists to stop using the words "Islam" and "Muslim" in their coverage of the Marriott bombing. I've even heard Muslims object to the phrase "moderate Muslims" because it implies the existence of immoderate ones. Islam will never be rescued by language inspectors who would substitute deflection for introspection.

Can reform rescue Islam? In principle, yes, but in practice, not necessarily. There are at least a few individuals and groups in every Muslim society striving to make the practice of their faith more tolerant of difference and dissent, less restrictive toward women, more compatible with secular democracy and less preoccupied with imposing Islamic law. Liberal American observers tend to celebrate these reformers as rescuers of Islam.

Yet the sheer diversity of Muslim societies suggests that efforts to liberalize Islamic doctrine will face varying prospects of success. Before assuming that liberals and jihadists have nothing in common, one should remember that both advocate far-reaching changes that threaten the conservative views and habits of many mainstream Muslims. Reformers deserve American support. But preventing the status quo from getting worse may be a more realistic goal of such help than winning "hearts and minds" for humanism, let alone making the Muslim world look as secular and democratic as, say, Turkey.

Is America responsible for Islam's predicament? Some U.S. actions have fueled jihad. The American presence in Iraq could become a magnet for holy warriors comparable to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Muslims pressed by Washington to oppose the hijacking of Islam by jihadists may instead decry the hijacking of U.S. foreign policy by hard- liners around President Bush.

But jihadists were fighting enemies long before the United States was born. The drive to create Islamist states is more than an attempt to check American hegemony. Different U.S. policies might shrink Muslim hostility toward U.S. actions. But intransigent theocrats will not be assuaged by the compromises necessary to resolve the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. Nor will either the failure or success of U.S.-led reconstruction of Iraq remove the reasons for Islamist violence in other Muslim societies.

Also shaky is the notion that "they hate us for our values." The democracy Americans espouse remains popular in the Muslim world. American notions of equal treatment for women are less welcome. But a woman's opportunities vary among Muslim-majority countries, including those in Asia that preceded the U.S. in having female heads of state.

Americans are disproportionally responsible for a modern world most Muslims feel they never made. Extremists have used such alienation to justify jihad. But it is not up to Americans to rescue Islam.

Non-Muslims can avoid unnecessary provocations and false reassurances. They can facilitate liberal reform. But it is Muslims, acting in diverse local circumstances, who will or won't break the cycle of jihadist demonization and naive denial that is ruining the image of their religion. Whether to rescue their faith is a choice only they can make.

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