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Michael H. Armacost
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Michael H. Armacost observes that economic and political ties are now displacing a deep-seated and longstanding rivalry between China and Japan.

China's government has sentenced two of its citizens to life in prison for their role in securing prostitutes for hundreds of male Japanese visitors in the southern city of Zhuhai last autumn. The Chinese government is also pressuring Tokyo to turn over the Japanese businessmen who allegedly requested the prostitutes. This story made headlines around the world, and fits well with how the world press typically covers Sino-Japanese relations. Regrettably, such incidents recur with enough regularity to feed the media machine that continues to stir a nationalism rooted in conflicting historical memories. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's annual visits to the Yasukuni Shrine -- which is widely viewed as a symbol of Japan's former militarism -- is a conspicuous example of this. The publicity that the press gives to these visits has helped impede an invitation to Koizumi from China's leaders for a state visit. Recently, the discovery of mustard gas canisters left behind by Japanese forces during World War II has also served to keep memories of the Imperial Japanese Army's wartime conduct alive among older Chinese. Moreover, rival Sino-Japanese claims to the Senkaku (or Diao Yutai) Islands resurfaced last year when the Japanese government leased three islets in the chain from private parties. The action, purportedly undertaken to reduce the prospect of landings and demonstrations by Japanese right-wingers, set off a brief, though frenzied, reaction in China, as well as in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Meanwhile, differences over Taiwan also foster tensions periodically, such as when former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui sought to visit Japan for medical treatment. But this is not the whole story. Although such incidents reveal a troubling level of mistrust between the Chinese and Japanese that is not merely a product of media coverage, it is noteworthy that both governments have worked consistently, diligently, and with considerable success to resolve such problems and contain their political fallout. Of course, official relations between the two countries are marked by much political and economic competition -- some of it healthy, some of it a possible harbinger of future strategic rivalry. The competitive strain in Sino-Japanese relations is especially visible in energy politics. Demand for oil in Asia is growing rapidly, and with China and Japan increasingly dependent upon imports, each has naturally sought to improve its energy security by diversifying sources of supply. Both countries covet access to Russian reserves, especially those located in the Angarsk fields of Siberia. Last spring, China appeared to have locked up a Russian commitment to build a pipeline to service the China market at Daqing. Japan, however, raised the ante with new offers of financial incentives. Its bid for an alternative pipeline to Nakhodka to serve Japanese, Korean and other markets remains alive, creating another point of competitive friction. In their rivalry for leadership in promoting Asian regional cooperation, meanwhile, China has taken an early lead. Nearly two years ago, China trumped Japan by offering a Free Trade Agreement to the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while front-loading its own tariff concessions. But this backdrop of contention and competition masks emerging collaborative aspects of Sino-Japanese relations that are profoundly important. For example, trade and investment flows continue to expand rapidly. Bilateral trade topped $100 billion in 2003, as Japan's exports to China increased by more than 10 percent, fueled by semiconductors, electrical equipment and automobiles. Meanwhile, China replaced the United States as Japan's biggest source of imports, and is now one of the few non-members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with which Japan runs a trade deficit. Similarly, direct investment by Japanese firms is increasing as they relocate production facilities to China to capitalize on lower labor costs and high-quality engineering talent. Of course, there is no assurance that today's expanded commerce will preclude eventual strategic rivalry, or succeed in erasing lingering wartime animosity. But both countries now place a premium on extending their economic interdependence. Ultimately, the historical wounds that have long divided China and Japan, and the more current diplomatic flash points that the global media inevitably trumpet, tell only part of the Sino-Japanese story. There are economic and geopolitical rivalries between China and Japan that dwarf in importance the high-profile insults to national pride that make headlines. But there are also compelling economic and political inducements toward cooperation that prevent these rivalries from developing into full-blown crises.

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Henry S. Rowen
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President George W. Bush has selected APARC director emeritus Henry S. Rowen as one of the two final members of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, according to a Feb. 14 announcement by the White House.

President George W. Bush has selected APARC director emeritus Henry S. Rowen as one of the two final members of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, according to a Feb. 14 announcement by the White House.

In addition to being the director emeritus of the Asia-Pacific Research Center, Rowen is co-director of the Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for International Studies. He was appointed a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution in 1983. He is the Edward B. Rust Professor of Public Policy and Management, emeritus, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He served as assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs from 1989 to 1991, chairman of the U.S. Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983, and deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs from 1961 to 1964.

Charles M. Vest, president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is the other final commission member announced by the White House.

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This program is part of the Winter Colloquium Series, "Globalizing Asian Cultures."

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Andrew Jones Associate Professor of East Asian Languages and Cultures University of California, Berkeley
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On January 14, 2004, APARC was privileged to welcome Admiral Thomas Fargo, Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, the largest unified command in the United States military. Introduced by Ambassador Michael Armacost and former Secretary of Defense William Perry, Admiral Fargo addressed a large audience on "The Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia." The admiral, whose remarks were off-the-record, spoke warmly about the importance, flexibility, and increasing strength of U.S. alliances in the Asia Pacific. He observed that these alliances, in their various forms, remain the cornerstone of the U.S. military posture in the Asia Pacific, and noted in particular America's longstanding relationship with Japan. The U.S.-ROK alliance, too, has matured considerably in recent years, and the impressive ROK military has made enormous contributions to regional and global security in recent years.

Conflict on the Korean peninsula, the admiral noted, can be considered the Asia Pacific's most pressing security challenge. In addressing that challenge, the U.S. Pacific Command seeks to ensure that ongoing diplomatic initiatives, including the six-party talks, are backed by viable military capabilities. Admiral Fargo stressed that U.S. forces are stationed in the Asia Pacific not to provoke, but to deter conflict. They are positioned where they have the greatest relevance, and may best support a given alliance at a given time, but likewise pose the fewest problems to the host countries.

The admiral also spoke of the complexity and promise of America's relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC). A successful PRC is very much in the U.S. interest, he observed, and a constructive and progressive relationship that further promotes peaceful exchange will benefit both parties and allow the alliance to deepen and adapt to changing times. Admiral Fargo's address was followed by a lively question-and-answer session.

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India?s national elections for its 14th parliament must take place by October 2004, and will probably happen by April. They will be held in the context of a new environment for the country: recognition of its nuclear capability, a new global order post 9/11, and its rising economic power. Yet many parts of the country still have very low levels of social development. Social divisiveness also continues to threaten civic stability. In the context of these opportunities and challenges, this seminar will discuss the electoral strategies of the main political parties and likely outcomes. Professor Pradeep Chhibber studies party systems, party aggregation, and the politics of India. His research examines the relationship between social divisions and party competition and the conditions that lead to the emergence of national or regional parties in a nation-state. Professor Chhibber received an M.A. and an M.Phil. from the University of Delhi and a Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles. He is currently the Indo-American Community Chair in India Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Tea and samosas will be served.

Philippines Conference Room

Pradeep Chhibber Associate Professor of Political Science University of California, Berkeley
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In this talk Professor Bell will highlight the dangers of implementing Western models of democracy in Southeast and Northeast Asia and argue for ways of varying these models to ensure a better fit with local contexts, including local experience and knowledge. He will begin by drawing on the example of foreign domestic workers in Singapore and Hong Kong to question the Western ideal of ?equal rights for all.? He will then offer a model of democracy ?with Confucian characteristics? intended to remedy some of the limitations of Western-style democracy in East Asian contexts. The overall aim of the talk will be to show the advantages?indeed, the necessity?of taking local knowledge and local traditions into account when proposing political reforms for East Asia that are not only morally desirable but politically feasible as well. Daniel A. Bell is the author of East Meets West: Human Rights and Democracy in East Asia (Princeton, 2000) and Communitarianism and Its Critics (Oxford, 1993) and co-editor of Confucianism for the Modern World (Cambridge, 2003) and The East Asian Challenge for Human Rights (Cambridge, 1999). Currently an associate professor at the City University of Hong Kong, he has held teaching or fellowship positions at the University of Hong Kong, the National University of Singapore, and Princeton University. His degrees include a D.Phil. from Oxford and a BA from McGill.

Okimoto Conference Room

Daniel Bell 2003-04 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences Stanford
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The Asia-Pacific Research Center is pleased to announce the recipient of this year's Shorenstein Journalism Award, Donald Oberdorfer. Mr. Oberdorfer is the Journalist-in-Residence and the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University and was the diplomatic correspondent, Washington Post for seventeen years.

Bechtel Conference Center

Donald Oberdorfer Journalist-in-Residence at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Diplomatic Correspondent, Washington Post (retired)
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Drawing on newly released data from the Index of Silicon Valley 2004, Doug Henton will discuss the impact of global economic e-structuring on the Valley's jobs. The talk will examine industry and occupational trends in Silicon Valley. The focus will be on what kinds of jobs are most likely to stay in the Valley.

Doug Henton has more than thirty years of experience in economic and community development. He is nationally recognized for his work in bringing industry, government, education, research, and community leaders together around specific collaborative projects to improve regional competitiveness.

He serves as national coordinator for the John W. Gardner Academy of the Alliance for Regional Stewardship, which is a national network of leaders from over firty regions in the United States. He was project manager for the start-up of the Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network. Doug is a consultant to the California Economic Strategy Panel, California's first state economic strategy process linked to industry clusters and regions. He has served as advisor on regional efforts around the United States, including in San Diego, Sacramento, Massachusetts, Chicago, and others.

Doug founded Collaborative Economics in July 1993 after a decade as assistant director of SRI International's Center for Economic Competitiveness. At SRI, Doug directed strategy projects in diverse regions, including Austin (Texas), Hong Kong, Japan, and China.

With colleagues Kim Walesh and John Melville, Doug has written Grassroots Leaders for the New Economy: How Civic Entrepreneurs Are Building Prosperous Communities (1997) and Civic Revolutionaries: Igniting the Passion for Change in America's Communities (2003). Doug holds a bachelors degree in political science and economics from Yale University and a masters of public policy degree from the University of California, Berkeley.

Philippines Conference Room

Doug Henton President Collaborative Economics
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Chris Berry traces the development and diversification of independent documentary film making in China from videotape to DV since its inception in the early 1990s, and its role in the succession from socialist realism to "on-the-spot realism." Chris Berry received his Ph.D. in Film and Television Studies from UCLA in 1999. He taught at La Trobe University in Melbourne for ten years prior to coming to the University of California, Berkeley. His research interests include Chinese cinema, Korean cinema, and the role of the cinema in the production of individual and collective identities. He is the author of A Bit on the Side: East-West Topographies of Desire, the editor of Perspectives on Chinese Cinema, the co-coordinator of The House of Kim Ki-Young, and the co-editor of The Filmmaker and the Prostitute: Dennis O'Rourke's "The Good Woman Of Bangkok." This seminar is part of the Winter Colloquium Series on "Globalizing Asian Cultures."

Philippines Conference Room

Chris Berry, Ph.D Associate Professor in the Departments of Film Studies and Theater, Dance and Performance Studies University of California, Berkeley
Seminars
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