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Venue Changed to the Philippines Conference Room

In 1992, Cambodia became a United Nations (UN) protectorate—the first and only time the UN tried something so ambitious. What did the new, democratically-elected government do with this unprecedented gift? Cambodians today live in the grip of a venal government that refuses to provide even the most basic services without a bribe. Nearly half of the Cambodians who lived through the Khmer Rouge era suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. A malnourished populace still lives as Cambodians did 1,000 years ago, while government officials are the only overweight people in a nation where the hungry waste away. These conditions have not, however, dissuaded the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from acceding the Cambodian regime's desire to chair ASEAN in 2012. Prof. Joel Brinkley will turn an unsparing analytical eye on these and related aspects of Cambodian history, political economy, and foreign policy.

Joel Brinkley joined Stanford in the fall of 2006 after a 23-year career with The New York Times. At the Times he served as a reporter, editor, and Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent. At Stanford, he writes a weekly column on foreign affairs that appears in some 50 newspapers and web sites in the United States and around the world. He also writes on foreign affairs for Politico, and maintains an active public-speaking career. His research interests include American foreign policy and foreign affairs in general. Over the last 30 years, he has reported from 46 American states and more than 50 foreign countries. The latest of his five books is Cambodia's Curse: The Modern History of a Troubled Land (2011), already lauded by a reviewer in The American Interest as a "compelling" and "revealing tale of delusion and corruption" told with "panache."  Copies of the book will be available for sale at the talk.

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Joel Brinkley Professor of Journalism Speaker Stanford University
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Venue Changed to the Philippines Conference Room

China has recently reformed its health care system with the intent of providing universal coverage for basic health care to every Chinese citizen. Three separate health insurance plans have recently been launched to achieve this objective: the rural newly cooperative medical scheme, urban resident health insurance, and urban employee-based health insurance. Each plan differs substantially in terms of insurers, insured population, premiums, and benefits packages. Using data from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey, Hai Fang will discuss a study that investigates whether and to what extend different health insurance plans have created disparities in health care utilization and expenditure.

Hai Fang is an assistant professor in the Department of Health Systems, Management, and Policy at the University of Colorado Denver, and a research associate in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He earned his doctorate in economics and master of public health from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 2006. Before joining the University of Colorado Denver, he taught at the University of California, Davis, and the University of Miami. His research interests include health economics, labor economics, and public health.

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Hai Fang Associate Professor, Department of Health Systems, Management, and Policy Speaker University of Colorado Denver
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This seminar explores whether and to what extent the relative circumstances of men and women following marital dissolution affect sex selection behavior within marriages. China's new divorce law, which was enacted in 2001, reduced divorce costs, especially for women, by granting the right to divorce and claim damages in the case of domestic violence and extra-marital relationships and by securing women's property rights upon divorce. Ang Sun has modeled the legal change as a decrease in women's divorce costs in a household in which all the marital surplus accrues to the husband. Sun shows: (1) that the new divorce law predicts an increase in divorce rates after the birth of a daughter; (2) that the new law results in fewer sex-selective abortions for the second birth if the first birth produced a daughter; and (3) that the effect of the new law on the sex ratio should have diminishing returns to divorce cost reduction for women. All the predictions are supported by the empirical evidence. Most importantly, she finds that most of the decline occurred in historically high divorce-cost regions, which is consistent with the predictions of the model and helps rule out concomitant changes in household income and relative returns to male and female children.

Ang Sun received her PhD from Brown University’s Department of Economics. Sun’s research interests encompass development economics, labor and demographic economics, and health economics. She focuses on intra-household allocations, gender differences, and household formation. In particular, she studies how a combination of different forces in China—including traditional values, rapid growth, and the population structure—is affecting Chinese families.

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Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St C335
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5668 (650) 723-6530
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2011-12 Asia Health Policy Fellow
SunAng_Profile.jpg MA, PhD

Ang Sun joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from Brown University’s department of economics where she recently received her PhD.

Sun’s research interests encompass development economics, labor and demographic economics, and health economics. She focuses on intra-household allocations, gender differences, and household formation. In particular, she studies how a combination of different forces in China—including traditional values, rapid growth, and the population structure—is affecting Chinese families. During her time at Shorenstein APARC, Sun will participate in an interdisciplinary study of the impact of the aging process in Asia on economic growth.

Sun holds a PhD and an MA in economics from Brown University, and an MA from the China Center of Economic Research. She also received a BA in economics and a BS in information and computer science from Beijing University.

Ang Sun 2011-12 Asia Health Policy Fellow Speaker Stanford University
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KSP visiting scholar Hyun Jeoung Lee, a South Korean attorney and former public prosecutor, will analyze the problem of rebates by pharmaceutical companies. She will provide background on the Korean pharmaceutical industry and review the Korean government's efforts to combat the problem, including the latest legislation, regulation, and prosecution.

Hyun Jeoung Lee is an attorney at the leading Korean law firm of Kim & Chang, in the White Collar Criminal Defense Practice Group. Before joining the firm in 2007, she served as a public prosecutor for 10 years, developing expertise in a wide range of criminal law matters and was awarded honors by the Korean government, including the titles of Public Prosecutor General (2003) and Cabinet Minister of the Ministry of Justice (2006).

Lee completed her master's work in competition and antitrust laws at the Graduate School of Legal Studies at Korea University in 2006. She has extensive experience in white collar criminal defense, primarily in the areas of securities fraud, insider trading, and other corporate crimes, including fair trade regulation.

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Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-2507 (650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar
Hyun_J._Lee_2010-2011_Visiting_scholar.jpg

Hyun Jeoung Lee is currently a visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program. She is an attorney at Kim & Chang, in the White Collar Criminal Defense Practice Group, in Seoul, Korea.

Before joining the firm in 2007, Lee served as a public prosecutor for 10 years. In that capacity, she developed expertise in a wide range of criminal law matters and was awarded honors by the Korean government, including the titles of Public Prosecutor General (2003) and Cabinet Minister of the Ministry of Justice (2006).

Lee completed her master's work in competition and antitrust laws at the Graduate School of Legal Studies at Korea University in 2006. She has extensive experience in white collar criminal defense, primarily in the areas of securities fraud, insider trading, and other corporate crimes, including fair trade regulation.

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Hyun Jeoung Lee 2011 Visiting Scholar, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Speaker
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Southeast Asia is home to half a billion people, and the United States has significant political and economic interest in the region. In response to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's Myanmar -- the first major U.S. visit in more than 50 years -- Donald K. Emmerson spoke with the International Business Times and LinkAsia about what the trip potentially means for the United States, for Southeast Asia, and for China.
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Young monks in Mandalay, Myanmar, April 2009.
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Life in North Korea is not as bleak as people imagine, says former humanitarian aid worker Katharina Zellweger, who lived in Pyongyang for five years. Food scarcity, however, is a serious concern and Zellweger says that other countries should consider providing more food aid to North Korea in order to set its economic and creative capacity free.
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Young boys in North Korea, August 2005.
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Fractured Rebellion is the first full-length account of the evolution of China's Red Guard Movement in Beijing, the nation's capital, from its beginnings in 1966 to its forcible suppression in 1968. A recent China Beat review praised Andrew G. Walder's 2009 book as "groundbreaking" and as "[bringing] meaning to a whirlwind of events."
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A Red Guard rally at Tiananmen Square during the Cultural Revolution.
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We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.

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Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
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Takeo Hoshi
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Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America’s high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.

A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia. The region is at the forefront of a trend towards longer life expectancy and declining birthrates, which, combined, yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another few decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also confronts a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face their own demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for a globally competitive
economy.

Held September 8–9, 2011 in Kyoto, Japan, the third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue focused on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which face similar problems. Questions addressed included:
 

  • What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, savings rates, and public and private intergenerational transfers?
     
  • How and why do policy responses to population aging differ in Japan, South Korea, and across different regions of China?
     
  • What are the effects of demographic change on national institutions such as employment practices, pension and welfare systems, and financial systems?
     
  • What policies can or should be pursued to influence future outcomes?
     
  • How will demographic change affect security in the Asia-Pacific region?
     
  • How have patterns of migration impacted society and culture in East Asia, in comparative perspective?
     
  • How will demographic change influence the movement of people across the region and the prevalence of multicultural families?
     
  • What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from each other to improve the policy response to population aging?
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The global balance of power is undergoing a gradual but dramatic shift. While the United States will likely remain a preeminent economic and geopolitical power, the long era of American hegemony is coming to an end. In particular, managing the rise of Asia will likely prove to be the central challenge of international politics in the 21st century. In the face of such striking change, rigidity threatens to make international organizations relics of a bygone era. A substantial update of the international organizational architecture is needed. As two of the world’s leading democracies and economic powers, there is much that the United States and Japan can contribute toward such an effort. This paper will examine how U.S.-Japan cooperation can reinvigorate and update international organizations to meet contemporary challenges.

The first section discusses distributional imbalance as a serious shortcoming of several major international organizations, most prominently the United Nations Security Council and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Uneven representation can lead to needless tension and undermine the ability of international organizations to facilitate interstate cooperation. The major international organizations must be updated to reflect 21st century realities. The next section examines the economic and geopolitical rise of Asia and potential implications for institutionalized cooperation. Asia is a region with comparatively weak international organizations and inferior representation in universalistic institutions. Without deeper regional institutionalization and commensurate representation in global institutions, Asia’s rise may prove destabilizing for international cooperation. Accordingly, the paper then presents several policy prescriptions for how the United States and Japan can cooperate to update and reform the international organizational architecture.

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Japan Center for International Exchange
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Phillip Lipscy
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