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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Saiko Nakagawa is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, she served as deputy director for market analysis at the Government of Japan's Financial Services Agency, performing financial markets monitoring and economic analysis. Nakagawa’s previous international experience includes contributing to the recent discussion on the credit default swap market at the International Organization of Securities Commissions.

Nakagawa received a bachelor's degree in economics from Keio University in 2000, and a master’s of pacific international affairs (international economics major) from the University of California, San Diego, in 2004.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Tsutomu Morigaki is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  He has worked at Mitsubishi Electric Corporation for 20 years.  He has been engaged in designing, developing and deploying information systems for Mitsubishi Electric’s financial companies, as well as coordinating with clients, engineers and vendors as a project manager.  Morigaki obtained his master's degree in interdisciplinary information studies from the University of Tokyo. 

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Ryo Masuda is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Masuda has more than six years of experience in media markets working for Sumitomo Corporation, one of Japan's major trading and investment conglomerates.  Most recently, Masuda worked for Japan's largest CATV operator, one of Sumitomo Corporation's affiliated companies, where he was responsible for business development.  Masuda graduated from Hitotsubashi University with a bachelor's degree in commercial science.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Chengbao He is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Since 2005, He has been the vice deputy director of the Science and Technology Management Department of PetroChina.  He is responsible for the R&D management of the refining and chemical businesses of PetroChina and for the intellectual property management.  He graduated from Tianjin University with a master's degree in chemical engineering in 1990.  After graduating, he worked at the Dalian Petrochemical Company (DPC) for 16 years, serving as the vice president in 2002.  DPC became the largest refinery in China which had a crude oil capacity of 400kBPSD.  During the period from 2002 to 2005, He was responsible for the technology of DPC's capacity expansion project.  In 2012, He graduated from the University of Houston with an Executive MBA degree.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Yasuaki Hanai is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Hanai has more than eight years of experience in energy markets working for NEC Corporation.  Most recently, Hanai was responsible for business development in the areas of environmental protection and energy management systems.  Hanai graduated from Meiji University with a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering informatics.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Mitsunori Fukuda is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  He has held positions at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (METI) for about 10 years, where he has been in charge of policy making.  His latest position at METI was as deputy director for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.  He obtained his bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering from Kyoto University.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Sanat Deshpande is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Deshpande has been part of Reliance Life Sciences Pvt. Ltd., India since 2003. Prior to joining Reliance, he worked for three years as a in-charge pharmacist at Cumballa Hill Heart Hospital and Research Institute from 2001. He has more than 11 years of experience in various facets of procuring materials from national and international markets and also has knowledge of inventory management.  Most recently, he was responsible for working closely with selected suppliers and internal staff to manage the company's procurement activities and operational procedures to ensure maximum performance and efficiency. Deshpande received his bachelor's degree in pharmacy from Pune University in 1996 and his MBA from Shivaji University in 1999.

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Niranjan Acharya is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2012-13.  Acharya has been a part of the Reliance Life Sciences Pvt. Ltd. since 2004.  In his role as a sales head, he is responsible for leading and managing the sales team for achieving the growth plans of the organization.  He is also involved in engaging with the senior management to develop and implement sales strategies that help in expanding the business opportunities of the company.  Acharya holds a bachelor's degree from Mangalore University and brings experience from prior work engagements with companies such as Pfizer Ltd. and Bayer (India) Ltd.

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This research aims to better understand the impact of the Matlab health interventions by using panel data to control for unobservables and understand the dynamics and long-term effects of these programs. Heterogeneity in the fertility response to the family planning program is analyzed, using sequential fertility to isolate the family planning program from other interventions and examine heterogeneity based on time-varying characteristics. The link between childhood measles vaccination and school enrollment is examined using instrumental variables, and is motivated by the hypothesis that by avoiding the long-term health effects of a disease, vaccinated children are higher-achieving. Both analyses generate interesting findings that are not captured using the traditional methodologies and outcomes of program evaluation.

Julia Driessen, PhD, is an assistant professor of health policy and management in the Graduate School of Public Health at the University of Pittsburgh. She has a secondary appointment in the Department of Economics. In 2011 Dr. Driessen received her PhD in Economics from Johns Hopkins University. Her research interests include program evaluation and the links between health interventions and socioeconomic status, with an emphasis on heterogeneity of program effects as well as long-term outcomes. Recent research has analyzed the schooling effects of childhood measles vaccination and variation in the fertility response to a family planning program in Bangladesh. Her primary new interest since arriving at Pitt is the clinical and financial effects of electronic medical records in developing countries.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Julia R. Driessen Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management in the Graduate School of Public Health Speaker the University of Pittsburgh
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Recent academic papers have shown that the Japanese sovereign debt situation is not sustainable. The puzzle is that the bond rate has remained low and stable. Some suggest that the low yield can be explained by domestic residents’ willingness to hold Japanese government bonds (JGBs) despite its low return, and that as long as domestic residents remain home-biased, the JGBs are sustainable. About 95% of JGBs are currently owned by domestic residents. This paper argues that even with such dominance of domestic investors, if the amount of government debt breaches the ceiling imposed by the domestic private sector financial assets, the JGB rates can rapidly rise and the Japanese government can face difficulty rolling over the existing debt. A simulation is conducted on future paths of household saving and fiscal situations to show that the ceiling would be breached in the next 10 years or so without a drastic fiscal consolidation. This paper also shows that the government debt can be kept under the ceiling with sufficiently large tax increases. The JGB yields can rise even before the ceiling is hit, if the expectation of such drastic fiscal consolidation disappears. This paper points out several possible triggers for such a change in expectation. However, downgrading of JGBs by credit rating agencies is not likely to be a trigger, since past downgrades have not produced any change in the JGB yield. If and when the JGB rates rapidly rise, the Japanese financial institutions that hold a large amount of JGBs will sustain losses and the economy will suffer from fiscal austerity, financial instability, and inflation.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
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Journal Publisher
The National Bureau of Economic Research
Authors
Takeo Hoshi
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