China's population of 1.34 billion is now 50 percent urban, over 13 percent above age 60, and with 118 boys born for every 100 girls. For such a large population at a relatively low level of per capita income, how will aging interact with substantial gender imbalance and rapid urbanization?

Will Demographic Change Slow China’s Rise? In the eponymous article recently published in the Journal of Asia Studies, five Stanford scholars of political science, sociology, and economics based at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center — Karen Eggleston, Jean C. Oi, Scott Rozelle, Andrew Walder, and Xueguang Zhou, with a former postdoctoral fellow Ang Sun — discuss how the intertwined demographic changes pose an unprecedented challenge to social and economic governance, contributing to and magnifying the effects of a slower rate of economic growth.

The authors touch upon a wide range of topics of policy import:
· China must overhaul rural education quickly if it is going to avoid producing tens of millions of workers who will be marginalized in the nation's future high-wage, high-skill economy.
· Growth slowdowns are almost always productivity growth slowdowns. Many forces impinge on multi-factor productivity; the stability and predictability of markets and governance are lynchpins. Discontent with widening disparities in China could undermine this fundamental foundation of growth.
· Demographic change will fundamentally challenge the conventional governance structures in China. Efforts to impose a bureaucratic solution to the intertwined social challenges China faces will almost inevitably stoke tensions between the society and the state. In both urban and rural areas, expansion of the bureaucratic state may become the central target of popular contention.
· China's high savings rate is partly explained by low fertility and parents' need to save for their own old-age support. Initiation of rural pensions and significant expansion of health insurance coverage and are examples of the social policy responses that China has undertaken to prepare for “growing old before becoming rich.” But much remains to be done.
· China's increasing burden of chronic disease further exacerbates the growth-slowing potential of a more elderly population and its associated medical expenditure burden.
· Although reducing precautionary savings and increasing domestic consumption as an engine of economic growth are widely acknowledged goals for China's economy, a rapid decline in savings could also imperil China's future economic growth by jeopardizing the current basis of the financial system.
· Demographic change will shape almost every aspect of how China copes with a slowing rate of economic growth, and may play a decisive role in the future social stability of China, with spillover effects for the region and the rest of the world.
The research is one product of a 3-year project analyzing Asian demographic change which will conclude in 2014 with a conference and edited book on demographic change and urbanization in China, in comparative international perspective.

SEJONG PRIZE FOR WRITING IN KOREAN STUDIES

Sponsored by the Korean Studies Program and the Center for East Asian Studies, the Sejong Prize for Writing in Korean Studies recognizes and rewards outstanding examples of writing by Stanford students in an essay, term paper, or thesis produced during the current academic year in any discipline within the area of Korean Studies, broadly defined. The competition is open to both undergraduate and graduate students.

Hajin Jun has won the 2nd Annual Korean Studies Writing Prize. A second-year Ph.D. candidate in History, Hajin wrote her essay, "Render unto Caesar? Presbyterian Missionaries and the 1935 Shinto Shrine Controversy," for a colloquium on Japan imperialism in Asia led by Associate Professor of History Jun Uchida. Professor Uchida says that Hajin's study is:

"highly original in focus and analysis." It examines the multi-faceted conflict in mid-1930s Korea between Presbyterian missionaries, many of them American, and the Japanese colonial government over the latter's increasing insistence that all Koreans engage in Shinto shrine worship. According to Professor Uchida, Hajin used "a rich collection of previously untapped missionary writings housed at the Presbyterian Historical Society…offers a nuanced, and novel, understanding of the controversy [and] significantly expands and complicates our understanding of the relationship between church and state in colonial Korea…."

Hajin's academic interests include modern Korean history and the history of religion. She received a B.A. in History with Highest Honors from the University of Michigan, and conducted research in Korea in 2011 and 2012 on a Fulbright research grant. Hajin this year also won a Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship. 

As the new academic year gets underway, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s Corporate Affiliates Program is excited to welcome its new class of fellows to Stanford University:

• Huihong Cai, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
• Il Rae Cho, Samsung Life Insurance
• Tetsuo Ishiai, Mitsubishi Electric
• Kensuke Itoh, Sumitomo Corporation
• Yong Je Kim, Samsung Electronics
• Katsunori Komeda, Sumitomo Corporation
• Chunquan Liu, Beiijng Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd.
• Guangmu Liu, PetroChina
• Tejas Mehta, Reliance Life Sciences
• Satoshi Ogawa, Japan Patent Office
• Toshihiko Takeda, Shizuoka Prefectural Government
• Keiichi Uruga, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
• Tun Wang, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
• Wei Wang, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
• Kenji Yanada, Ministry of Finance, Japan
• Xiaoyu Zhang, PetroChina

During their stay at Stanford University, the fellows will audit classes, work on English skills, and conduct individual research projects; at the end of the year they will make a formal presentation on the findings from their research. During their stay at the center, they will have the opportunity to consult with Shorenstein APARC's scholars and attend events featuring visiting experts from around the world. The fellows will also participate in special events and site visits to gain a firsthand understanding of business, society, and culture in the United States.

Shorenstein APARC's Daniel Sneider, associate director for research, is quoted in the Chronicle of Higher Education on efforts by historians in Asia to prevent revisionist changes in interpretations of wartime history. The election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister has many worrying that the clock will be turned back on efforts to accurately portray events from the war.

Academics from American, European and Asian universities came together September 19th and 20th to present their research on the large-scale movements of people, and engage in a multidisciplinary exchange of ideas and perspectives.  This installment of the Europe Center - University of Vienna bi-annual series of conferences and workshops was held on the Stanford campus and co-sponsored by The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

For the agenda, please visit the event website Migration and Integration: Global and Local Dimensions.

The Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center announces the availability of a research assistant position in health economics research on evidence-based health policy in East Asia. The student would support research by AHPP’s faculty director, Karen Eggleston, on “value for money” in chronic disease management in Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The research assistant must have some experience with quantitative research, preferably using STATA and other software, and be available for 5 hours per week for 10 weeks, with possibility of renewal for winter quarter. Ability to read and write Japanese and/or Chinese, as well as excellent microeconomics and data analysis skills, would be ideal. Applicants should send their resume and brief description of relevant skills to Karen Eggleston at karene@stanford.edu.