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Karen Eggleston
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China’s recent initiatives to deepen health reform, control antimicrobial resistance, and strengthen primary health services are the topics of ongoing collaborative research by the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) at Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Chinese counterparts. For example, with generous support from ACON Biotechnology and in partnership with the ACON Biotech Primary Care Research Center in Hangzhou, China, AHPP hosts an annual conference on community health services and primary health care reform in China.

The conference, titled Forum on Community Health Services and Primary Health Care Reform, was held in June at the Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU) in Beijing. It featured distinguished policymakers, providers and researchers who discussed a wide-range of topics from China’s emerging “hierarchical medical system” for referring patients to the appropriate level of care (fenji zhenliao), as well as the practice and challenges of innovative approaches to primary care and integrated medical care systems. Yongquan Chen, director of Yong’an City Hospital and representative for the mayor’s office of Sanming, talked about health reforms in Sanming City, Fujian Province, a famous example within China. He discussed the incentives and reasoning behind the reforms, which focus on removing incentives for over-prescription of medications, demonstrating government leadership for comprehensive reforms, consolidating three agencies into one, monitoring implementation and easing tensions between doctors and patients. He pointed out the feasibility and early successes of reform by comparing public hospitals in the city in terms of their revenues and costs, reduced reliance on net revenue from medication sales, and other dimensions of performance. Finally, he addressed reform implementation and future plans on both the hospital's and the government's part.

Xiaofang Han, former director of the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, shared her personal views on the challenges patients face in navigating China’s health system (kan bing nan) and the need to improve the structure of the delivery system, including a revision to the incentives driving over-prescription in China’s fee-for-service payment system. She emphasized that patients’ distrust of primary care providers can only be overcome by demonstrating improved quality (e.g. with a systematic training program for general practitioners, GPs), and that referral systems should be based on the actual capabilities of the clinicians, not their formal labels. To reach China’s goal of over 80 percent of patients receiving management and first-contact care within their local communities will require improved training and incentive programs for newly-minted MDs, a more flexible physician labor market, and innovations in e-health and patient choice regarding gatekeeping or “contract physician services” (qianyue fuwu).        

Guangde County People's Hospital Director Mingliang Xu spoke about practices and exploration of healthcare alliances and initiatives to provide transparent incentives linking medical staff bonuses to metrics of quality. Ping Zhu from Community Healthcare Service Development and Research Center in Ningbo addressed building solid relationships between doctors and residents and providing more patient-centered services.        

Professor Yingyao Chen from Fudan University School of Public Health discussed performance assessment of community health service agencies based on his research in Shanghai. He introduced the strengths and weaknesses of the incentives embedded in the assessment system for China’s primary care providers, and concluded with suggestions for future research. Dr. Linlin Hu, associate professor at Peking Union Medical College, discussed China's progress and challenges of providing universal coverage of national essential public health services.

Professor Hufeng Wang of Renmin University of China discussed China’s vision for a “hierarchical medical system”– bearing resemblance to “integrated care,” “managed care,” or NHS-like coordination of primary and specialized care – with examples of pilot reforms from Xiamen, Zhenjiang and Dalian cities. Dr. Zuxun Lu, professor of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, also discussed hierarchical medical systems and declared that China currently had a “discounted gatekeeper system.”

Dr. Yaping Du of Zhejiang University presented his research on mobile technology for management of lipid levels and with the help of a volunteer, demonstrated “Dyslipidemia Manager,” a mobile app-based product for both patients and doctors. Innovative strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in low- and middle-income countries were the focus of remarks by Dr. Guanyang Zou from the Institute for Global Health and Development at Queen Margaret University, including its connections to international experiences with China’s current efforts in that area.  

In sum, the 2016 Forum elicited lively, evidence-based discussions about the opportunities and challenges in improving primary care and sustaining universal coverage for China.  Plans are underway for convening the third annual ACON Biotech-Stanford AHPP Forum on Community Health Services and Primary Health Care Reform in June 2017 at SCPKU. Anyone with original research or innovative experiences with primary care in China may contact Karen Eggleston regarding participation in next year’s Forum. 

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Policymakers, healthcare providers and researchers gathered at Stanford Center at Peking University to discuss community health services and primary healthcare reform, Beijing, June 2016.
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Lisa Griswold
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A long line of research has shown that women live longer than men, yet according to Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program, and four other Stanford health researchers, mortality rate differences between men and women are much more variable than previously thought, following predictable patterns. Life expectancy differs depending on time, location and socioeconomic circumstance, not on biological factors alone, according to their newly published findings.

The researchers found that women have greater resilience when faced with socioeconomic adversity in a developing country—living nearly 10 years longer than men on average—but this pattern changes as the country evolves. Developed countries typically have smaller gaps in mortality rates between men and women than developing countries do.

Japan and South Korea are outliers, however, with higher mortality rate differences between men and women than is average for developed countries. In addition to the prevalence of male smoking, one possible explanation they draw is the lack of career-related opportunities for women in Japan and South Korea, two countries that have low gender wage equity among Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development members.

Eggleston, who is part of the core faculty at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, et al. suggested the idea that reducing gender inequality may help narrow the mortality gap: men increase years lived when fewer barriers for women exist, but concluded that their findings supporting this conclusion merit further inquiry.

Their findings were published in the August edition of SSM – Population Health and highlighted in an earlier column on Voxeu.

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A woman walking in Tokyo, Japan.
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Sex differences in mortality vary over time and place as a function of social, health, and medical circumstances. The magnitude of these variations, and their response to large socioeconomic changes, suggest that biological differences cannot fully account for sex differences in survival. Drawing on a wide swath of mortality data across countries and over time, we develop a set of empiric observations with which any theory about excess male mortality and its correlates will have to contend. We show that as societies develop, M/F survival first declines and then increases, a “sex difference in mortality transition” embedded within the demographic and epidemiologic transitions. After the onset of this transition, cross-sectional variation in excess male mortality exhibits a consistent pattern of greater female resilience to mortality under socio-economic adversity. The causal mechanisms underlying these associations merit further research.

 

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The Asia Health Policy Program at Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in collaboration with scholars from Stanford Health Policy's Center on Demography and Economics of Health and Aging, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Next World Program, is soliciting papers for the third annual workshop on the economics of ageing titled Financing Longevity: The Economics of Pensions, Health Insurance, Long-term Care and Disability Insurance held at Stanford from April 24-25, 2017, and for a related special issue of the Journal of the Economics of Ageing.

The triumph of longevity can pose a challenge to the fiscal integrity of public and private pension systems and other social support programs disproportionately used by older adults. High-income countries offer lessons – frequently cautionary tales – for low- and middle-income countries about how to design social protection programs to be sustainable in the face of population ageing. Technological change and income inequality interact with population ageing to threaten the sustainability and perceived fairness of conventional financing for many social programs. Promoting longer working lives and savings for retirement are obvious policy priorities; but in many cases the fiscal challenges are even more acute for other social programs, such as insurance systems for medical care, long-term care, and disability. Reform of entitlement programs is also often politically difficult, further highlighting how important it is for developing countries putting in place comprehensive social security systems to take account of the macroeconomic implications of population ageing.

The objective of the workshop is to explore the economics of ageing from the perspective of sustainable financing for longer lives. The workshop will bring together researchers to present recent empirical and theoretical research on the economics of ageing with special (yet not exclusive) foci on the following topics:

  • Public and private roles in savings and retirement security
  • Living and working in an Age of Longevity: Lessons for Finance
  • Defined benefit, defined contribution, and innovations in design of pension programs
  • Intergenerational and equity implications of different financing mechanisms for pensions and social insurance
  • The impact of population aging on health insurance financing
  • Economic incentives of long-term care insurance and disability insurance systems
  • Precautionary savings and social protection system generosity
  • Elderly cognitive function and financial planning
  • Evaluation of policies aimed at increasing health and productivity of older adults
  • Population ageing and financing economic growth
  • Tax policies’ implications for capital deepening and investment in human capital
  • The relationship between population age structure and capital market returns
  • Evidence on policies designed to address disparities – gender, ethnic/racial, inter-regional, urban/rural – in old-age support
  • The political economy of reforming pension systems as well as health, long-term care and disability insurance programs

 

Submission for the workshop

Interested authors are invited to submit a 1-page abstract by Sept. 30, 2016, to Karen Eggleston at karene@stanford.edu. The authors of accepted abstracts will be notified by Oct. 15, 2016, and completed draft papers will be expected by April 1, 2017.

Economy-class travel and accommodation costs for one author of each accepted paper will be covered by the organizers.

Invited authors are expected to submit their paper to the Journal of the Economics of Ageing. A selection of these papers will (assuming successful completion of the review process) be published in a special issue.

 

Submission to the special issue

Authors (also those interested who are not attending the workshop) are invited to submit papers for the special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing by Aug. 1, 2017. Submissions should be made online. Please select article type “SI Financing Longevity.”

 

About the Next World Program

The Next World Program is a joint initiative of Harvard University’s Program on the Global Demography of Aging, the WDA Forum, Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, and Fudan University’s Working Group on Comparative Ageing Societies. These institutions organize an annual workshop and a special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing on an important economic theme related to ageing societies.

 

More information can be found in the PDF below.


 

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China announced plans to discontinue its “one-child policy” in October, relaxing over three decades of controversial family planning policies and changing to a universal two-child policy. This new policy is a step forward, but China’s population aging and gender imbalance will create challenges for decades, according to a leading Stanford health researcher.

“China has reached a certain level of social and economic development where low fertility and population aging have become norms,” said Karen Eggleston, a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) and director of the Asia Health Policy Program. “Similar trends are seen in Japan and South Korea, and governments are struggling to catch up.”

 

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The policy change comes amid concerns of potential labor shortages and a burgeoning aging population that could pressure the Chinese economy for years to come. 

The country has had record growth – China’s GDP growth rate averaged 8.6 percent over the past five years – which is now slowing. That trend coupled with China’s rising life expectancy reinforces the need for a healthy, economically productive population to support the elderly, experts say.

“Demographers who study China knew a policy change was coming, but not when,” said Eggleston. “The policy was strategically announced with the Five Year Plan – a sort of developmental roadmap for the country.”

A forthcoming book, Policy Challenges from Demographic Change in China and India, edited by Eggleston examines the policy challenges posed by demographic change in China and India, from family planning to social pensions systems that support the elderly. One chapter looks exclusively at population policy, sex ratio and fertility in China.

A spur to action?

A shift to a consistent, nationwide two-child policy is a step in the right direction, Eggleston said, and it is unlikely to translate to a boom in the birthrate.

Some areas of the country and specific couples already enjoyed a two-child policy due to local policy differences and an earlier national policy easing. In 2013, the Chinese government allowed couples with a husband or wife from a single-child family to have a second child.

Chinese cities that never had a one-child policy to begin with, like Hong Kong and Macau, have very low fertility. A recent article in China Journal noted that, despite the ubiquity of the one-child policy campaign, China’s rapid economic development since 1980 deserves the “lion’s share of credit” for reduced births as the country’s total fertility rate has declined.

“The real question is how responsive the Chinese will be,” Eggleston said. “It’s not clear that there will be a noticeable response in the short or medium-term.”

Implementation of the policy will take time, but China will work “quite expeditiously” to apply such policies so that people’s expectations are met. Alongside legal change of China’s varying local policies, it’s expected that China will employ several public education campaigns and its cadre of family planning staff as conduits for disseminating the new national policy, Eggleston said.


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Chinese Family Planning Poster

A 1986 poster highlights China's one-child policy.

Credit: Flickr/Collection Stefan R. Landsberger, International Institute of Social History (Amsterdam).


But other factors are at play, too, such as urbanization and changes in labor force participation.

“Young and middle-aged couples will be thinking twice about having another child because of education expense, job demands and the need to support aging parents,” Eggleston said.

paper published by Eggleston and three other scholars in the Journal of Labor & Development analyzed how employment of females from rural areas affected fertility, using data from a survey of 2,355 married women in China. The survey examined “off-farm” employment, which was defined as travel to another village, town or city for work.

The researchers found that off-farm employment for those women reduced the probability of having more than one child by 54.8 percent and the probability of preferring more than one child by 49.6 percent. An earlier blog piece on VoxEU highlighted those research outcomes.

Another aspect of China’s demographic change is gender imbalance. Male preference has long been a cultural factor in China and, with the pressures of the one-child policy, a cause behind its skewed population.

That reality will not dramatically change soon, Eggleston said. Even if the end to the one-child policy brought the sex ratio at birth back to normal levels, the existing imbalance of the younger population will create millions of “forced bachelors” among poorer men who cannot find brides, as well as a whole set of related issues.

Choice restored

What the policy assuredly does, though, is remove a barrier. Many Chinese women who before did not have the opportunity to give birth to a second child, now have that opportunity.

 

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“This is a crucial arena of choice restored to the Chinese,” Eggleston wrote of the 2013 policy relaxation in a brief presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Previously, the absence of such a freedom led some couples to face substantial fines from the government, depending on the local variation of the one-child policy.

“Regardless of the new policy, demographic trends point to the importance of investing in child education, nutrition and skill development,” Eggleston said.

A similar message is carried in a chapter in Policy Challenges, co-authored by Sanghyop Lee and Qiulin Chen, who suggest that putting resources toward human capital development – education and health – can offset the destabilizing effects of demographic transition.

Research being done by FSI’s Rural Education Action Program led by Stanford professor Scott Rozelle works to directly inform education, health and nutrition policy in China.

Spending more on education – particularly for women and girls – is win-win. It complements pro-employment policies, and boosts productivity for women and the economy as a whole, Eggleston said.

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A woman in Beijing, China, holds children's balloons.
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Demographic change is fast becoming one of the most globally significant trends of the 21st century. Declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy -- two of the patterns triggering demographic change -- will cause vast socioeconomic strains, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which has some of the world's most populous countries. Stanford health researcher Karen Eggleston says comparison and cross-collaboration are needed to induce creative solutions.

In an interview with the Office of International Affairs, Eggleston discusses her research approaches and partnerships in the study of healthcare systems and health policy in the Asia-Pacific region. She leads a multiyear research initative that examines comparative policy responses to demographic change in East Asia. Eggleston says the goal is to help move global health policy to a place where everyone has an "equal opportunity for a healthier and longer life."

The Q&A may be viewed in full by clicking here.

Analyzing demographic change in China, Japan and South Korea is the focus of the book Aging Asiaan outcome of a conference between the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Stanford Center on Longevity.

Eggleston also coedited a special issue of the Journal of the Economics of Ageing with David Bloom, a professor at Harvard University, looking at a range of economic issues related to population change in China and India.

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Karen Eggleston (left) confers with a healthcare worker at a primary care clinic in Hangzhou, China.
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