Asia's Rise: Thirty Years of Connecting Asia to Stanford
May 2013 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Over the three decades of the Center’s existence, immense change has taken place in the Asia-Pacific.
The early 1980s were a time for tremendous, transformative ripples of social, political, and economic change in many Asian countries; many of those changes set in motion trends, institutions, and events that are prominent aspects of the Asian landscape today.
In Northeast Asia, China embraced market reforms and opened its doors to foreign investment and trade, setting the stage for its role as a contemporary global leader. Japan experienced the peak of its post-war boom, consolidating its role as a pioneer in technology and manufacturing. South Korea underwent a dramatic transformation that, paired with its rapid economic growth, created a regional powerhouse. Southeast Asia emerged from the shadow of war to become a region of economic tigers and emerging powers.
At Stanford, the Northeast Asia-United States Forum on International Policy and the Center for International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) were established in May 1983 as independent, but complementary, entities. The Northeast Asia-United States Forum later grew into the Asia/Pacific Research Center and, in 2005, was endowed as the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). The two centers still closely collaborate on research and events. In the ensuing three decades, Shorenstein APARC expanded its reach beyond core expertise on Northeast Asia to the fast-developing region of Southeast Asia and to South Asia, which has emerged as a new center of power in the Asia-Pacific. The Center has focused increasingly on the crosscurrents of growing economic, cultural, and institutional integration in the region alongside a troubling rise of tensions driven by intensifying nationalism.
Today, Shorenstein APARC boasts five vibrant programs focusing on contemporary Asia and engaged in policy-oriented research, training, and publishing: the Asia Health Policy Program, Japan Studies Program, Korean Studies Program, Southeast Asia Forum, and the Stanford China Program. It also takes great pride in its unique Corporate Affiliates Program, whose alumni roster of over 300 Asian business, government, and media professionals continues to expand. Rounding out Shorenstein APARC’s Asia expertise, its South Asia Initiative has produced many important publications and events for over a decade.
On May 2, 2013, Shorenstein APARC will celebrate its anniversary with a special public symposium exploring Asia’s transformation over the past three decades, developments in U.S.-Asia relations, and the trajectory of Shorenstein APARC’s own history. You are invited to join us in marking this historic occasion.
Panel 1: Asia's Rise
Panel 2: Shorenstein APARC's History
Panel 3: Developments in U.S.-Asia Relations
Bechtel Conference Center
Visitors a vibrant part of the Asia Health Policy Program
Countries throughout the world increasingly share similar health policy challenges such as healthcare and insurance reform, rapid demographic change, and high rates of chronic diseases like diabetes. The Asia-Health Policy Program (AHPP) is one of several Stanford organizations seeking solutions to major global health issues through a comparative study of the health policies of different countries. Visiting fellows and scholars from Asia play an integral part in AHPP’s research, publishing, and outreach activities.
Since AHPP’s founding in 2007, the program has hosted 10 visitors from Asia, including Cambodia, China, and Korea, and, in the coming academic year, it will welcome three new visitors, from Japan, Mongolia, and the Philippines. In just five years AHPP has established strong postdoctoral and developing Asia fellowship programs, in addition to the visiting scholars it hosts. Lasting ties have been established, resulting in numerous publications as well as research and outreach projects in Asia.
Even now we still keep in touch and collaborate on certain research areas.
-Yan Wang, 2009–10 Visiting Scholar
Three former AHPP visitors recently spoke about their experience with the program and about the work they have been doing since their time at Stanford.
Young Kyung Do, AHPP’s inaugural postdoctoral fellow (2008–09), conducted research on the social and economic implications of population aging in Asia. Focusing on education and diabetes care, Do also examined the impact of socioeconomic disparities on the health and health care of elderly citizens. AHPP helped define his future research agenda, and also provided him with publishing opportunities, including collaborating on a chapter on diabetes in the edited volume Aging Asia (2010). Do is now an assistant professor with the Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School, where he studies health economics and policy issues related to population aging and noncommunicable diseases in Southeast and East Asia.
Byongho Tchoe served as a visiting scholar during the 2008–09 academic year, researching and writing about health care reform in South Korea. Tchoe enjoyed conducting research in Stanford’s peaceful campus environment, and taking part in seminars offered by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and other Stanford organizations. He contributed the chapter “Old-Age Pension Reform in South Korea” to Aging Asia, and published a working paper and article on the impact of population aging on medical costs in South Korea. Tchoe is now the president of the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs in Seoul.
Yan Wang (former), an AHPP visiting scholar from 2009 to 2010, is currently deputy director of the Division of Disease Control in the Health Department of China’s Shandong Province. At AHPP, Wang studied how private health care providers, in conjunction with government-run health services, can help improve the overall primary care available in China’s cities. She also collaborated with Stanford’s Asian Liver Center to develop an online program to provide better hepatitis B education to health professionals in Shandong. Wang appreciated attending AHPP seminars and learning about health reform around the world, and still remains in touch with some of the scholars she connected with during her time at Stanford.
AHPP looks forward to continuing to welcome and collaborate with visiting fellows and scholars in the coming years, and to expanding its postdoctoral and developing Asia fellowship programs.
Stanford experts propose new ideas for governments dealing with old age
From Shanghai to São Paulo, people around the world are living longer than ever, challenging long-held ideas about retirement and well-established national retirement systems. Stanford health economists Karen Eggleston and Victor R. Fuchs offer an innovative view of the global aging phenomenon in an article published recently in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Drawing on a century of demographic data from 17 countries, Eggleston and Fuchs show that the share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century but close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century. Expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is now declining. Eggleston and Fuchs share four interrelated responses to the economic and social challenges posed by this “new demographic transition:”
- Increase the retirement age.
- Encourage savings.
- Strengthen education.
- Emphasize healthy lifestyles early to ensure productivity in old age.
Eggleston is director of the Asia Health Policy Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Fuchs is Henry J. Kaiser, Jr., Professor Emeritus, in Stanford’s Department of Economics and Department of Health Research and Policy, and a senior fellow at FSI and SIEPR.
Of the four policy responses the article proposes, is one especially critical?
Fuchs: The most important solution in terms of its potential impact would be people changing their attitudes toward retirement. This would mean people postponing retirement and saving more during their working years. If you work five years longer, for example, you would have greater savings and a shorter period of time when you would need the money.
Eggleston: We tend to think of the solutions as being interrelated. To address this longstanding and inevitable global demographic transition, organizations and policy structures need to support changes in individual behavior. In the case of the retirement age in the United States and European countries, policymakers need to change the many incentives that encourage people to retire younger.
What do you most hope policymakers will take away from the article?
Fuchs: We hope they will recognize the absolute need for individuals and organizations to plan for later retirement.
What are the special challenges faced by China and India, the world’s largest populations?
Eggleston: Longer lives in China and India contribute to improved human development, yet population aging also brings special challenges. China’s population is aging more rapidly than India’s and both countries need to invest more in the education and health of their young people, especially in poor rural areas.
In India, nutrition and education will help to reap a one-time boost to economic growth if the large cohorts of the working age population can be productively employed, while building a foundation for sustained improvement of living standards. China’s youth need to be as productive as possible to support the elderly while continuing to improve the national living standard.
The coming decade will be crucial in China, as the country transitions into a new economic phase and expands its fledging social protection system. The goal should be to ameliorate disparities and protect the vulnerable, while maintaining a financially sustainable and culturally appropriate balance of government and family responsibility for old-age support.
Long-Term Outcomes and Heterogeneity of Effects of Health Interventions in Matlab, Bangladesh
This research aims to better understand the impact of the Matlab health interventions by using panel data to control for unobservables and understand the dynamics and long-term effects of these programs. Heterogeneity in the fertility response to the family planning program is analyzed, using sequential fertility to isolate the family planning program from other interventions and examine heterogeneity based on time-varying characteristics. The link between childhood measles vaccination and school enrollment is examined using instrumental variables, and is motivated by the hypothesis that by avoiding the long-term health effects of a disease, vaccinated children are higher-achieving. Both analyses generate interesting findings that are not captured using the traditional methodologies and outcomes of program evaluation.
Julia Driessen, PhD, is an assistant professor of health policy and management in the Graduate School of Public Health at the University of Pittsburgh. She has a secondary appointment in the Department of Economics. In 2011 Dr. Driessen received her PhD in Economics from Johns Hopkins University. Her research interests include program evaluation and the links between health interventions and socioeconomic status, with an emphasis on heterogeneity of program effects as well as long-term outcomes. Recent research has analyzed the schooling effects of childhood measles vaccination and variation in the fertility response to a family planning program in Bangladesh. Her primary new interest since arriving at Pitt is the clinical and financial effects of electronic medical records in developing countries.
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Study examines school textbook information on malaria
Intergenerational Living Arrangements in South Korea: Health and Economic Implications
Population aging in Asian societies is accompanied by changes in intergenerational living arrangements, which can have substantial health and economic implications for the elderly parents and their adult children. Dr. Young Kyung Do will present some of his recent works related to elderly living arrangements in South Korea. These works include the effect of coresidence with an adult child on depressive symptoms among older widowed women; the relationship between adult children's coresidence with parents and their labor force participation; and interrelations between expectations about bequests and informal care with special emphasis on the role of intergenerational coresidence. In these studies, Dr. Do attempted to account for a common methodological issue: living arrangements are not always randomly assigned but may be jointly decided with the outcome of interest taken into account by either the elderly parents or their adult children. While this seminar will focus on the South Korean context, the significance and implications apply to many other Asian societies undergoing population aging and marked transitions in elderly living arrangements.
Dr. Young Kyung Do is an assistant professor at the Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School (Duke-NUS), Program in Health Services and Systems Research. His research interests include the economic and health system impact of population aging and noncommunicable disease; interactions between self-care, informal care, and formal care interfaces; and health, education, and labor market outcomes over the life course. He received his MD (1997) and master of public health (2003) degrees from Seoul National University, subsequently completing his PhD in Health Policy and Management (2008) at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He was the inaugural Asia Health Policy postdoctoral fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center,(2008−9).
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Young Kyung Do
Young Kyung Do is the inaugural Postdoctoral Fellow in the Asia Health Policy Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. He completed his Ph.D. in health policy and administration at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health in August 2008. He has also earned M.D. and Master of Public Health degrees from Seoul National University (in 1997 and 2003, respectively). He earned board certification in preventive medicine from the Korean Medical Association in 2004. His research interests include population aging and health care, comparative health policy, health and development, quality of care, program evaluation, and quantitative methods in health research.
He received the First Prize Award in the Graduate Student Paper Competition in the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study Conference in 2007. He also is the recipient of the Harry T. Phillips Award for Outstanding Teaching by a Doctoral Student from the UNC Department of Health Policy and Administration in 2007. In May 2008, he was selected as a New Investigator in Global Health by the Global Health Council.
The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life
The share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century for the United States and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development; but that share was close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century, and is almost certainly approaching 100 percent asymptotically. This new demographic transition portends a diminished survival effect on working life. For high-income countries at the forefront of the longevity transition, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is declining. Innovative policies are needed if societies wish to preserve a positive relationship running from increasing longevity to greater prosperity.
Published: Eggleston, Karen N., and Victor R. Fuchs. "The new demographic transition: most gains in life expectancy now realized late in life." The journal of economic perspectives 26.3 (2012): 137-156.
In countries where cooking can kill, trying to promote safer stoves
Preparing a meal in some of the world’s poorest rural areas can turn an ordinary activity into a deadly chore. Animal dung and crop scraps often fuel the indoor fires used for cooking. And before any food fills a hungry belly, thick black smoke fills a family’s lungs.
Pneumonia and other acute respiratory infections kill about 1 million people a year in low-income countries, making them the top cause of death in the developing world and the greatest threat to children’s lives. Makeshift stoves belch much of the polluted air leading to those illnesses. About 75 percent of South Asians and nearly half the world’s population use open-fire stoves inside their homes.
“The smoke is asphyxiating,” said Grant Miller, an associate professor of medicine at Stanford working on ways to get people to buy – and use – cleaner, safer stoves. “It burns your eyes and you can’t stop coughing.”
Governments and humanitarian organizations have urged people to trade their traditional stoves for safer models, many of which have chimneys that funnel smoke out of a home. But the switch from dangerous stoves has been slow to come, even though most people using them know they’re harmful.
Miller and his colleagues are studying what’s behind the reluctance and what can be done about it. They suspect much of the problem rests with the widespread approach to clean cookstove conversion, which focuses on educating people about the appliances’ health hazards and offering new models at a low cost.
Their most recent findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, boil down to this: Clean and modern cookstoves don’t have features people want. And until they’re redesigned, people are unlikely to bother with them.
“People don’t think of cookstoves as health technologies,” said Miller, an associate professor of medicine and a Stanford Health Policy faculty member at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Miller is the senior author of the PNAS paper, which published online June 11.
“They don’t think respiratory illness is the biggest health problem that they have,” he said. “And when you ask them what they want from a stove, they talk about saving time and having better fuel efficiency. They’re not talking about smoke emissions.”
In the first of two studies, Miller – joined by Yale researchers and Lynn Hildemann, a Stanford engineering professor affiliated with the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment – surveyed about 2,500 women who cook for their families in rural Bangladesh.
Nearly all of the women use traditional stoves, and 94 percent of them said they know the smoke from their stoves can make them sick. But 76 percent said the smoke is less harmful than polluted water, and 66 percent said it wasn’t as dangerous as rotten food.
“People know their cookstoves are bad, but they don’t think cookstoves are the most important problem they face,” Miller said. “They’d rather spend their money fixing those things and getting their kids into a good school than buying a new cookstove.”
When asked what features are most important in a stove, the women talked about things that could save fuel costs, cooking time and the hassle that goes into collecting fuel.
“A very small percent said reducing pollution was important,” Miller said.
The researchers then tried to assess more directly how Bangladeshis value new stoves. They offered 2,200 customers across 42 rural villages the opportunity to buy one of two models – one boasted improved fuel efficiency; the other had a chimney to reduce exposure to indoor smoke.
At the market prices of $5.80 for an efficient stove and $10.90 for the chimney stove, less than a third of customers ordered either model. And when the stoves were delivered a few weeks after the orders were taken, a very small number of families actually went through with the purchase of either model. Large randomized discounts increased customer interest in fuel-efficient stoves, but did little to raise purchase rates of chimney stoves.
“A big implication is that the health education and social marketing approaches aren’t going to work,” Miller said. “You need to get inside the heads of the users and figure out what they really want and value – even if unrelated to smoke and health – and then give it to them.”
The lead author of the PNAS paper was Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, an economist at Yale. It was co-authored by Yale researchers Puneet Dwivedi and Robert Bailis. Their work was supported by the Freeman Spogli Institute’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment, and the International Growth Centre.
The Quality of Life and Mortality risk of Elderly People in Rural China: The Role of Family Support
The elderly share of China’s population is projected to grow well beyond the capacity of the nation’s social security system. Meanwhile, family care is being challenged by a decline in fertility and an increase in migration from rural to urban areas. This paper examines the short-, mid-, and long-term effects of family support on elderly well-being in rural China, using four-wave panel data on 1,456 persons aged 60 and above in the Chaohu region of China. Findings showed that compared with living alone, being coresident with others lowered the mortality risk of several chronic diseases; but being coresident with adult children increased the mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases, though it was associated with a higher quality of life in the short and middle term. Children’s educational attainment and financial support increased the quality of life except for an increased risk of new incidence of cardiovascular disease in the middle term.