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Lin Shu-ya will discuss the Taiwanese government's reserved land policy that is aimed at aiding indigenous people to be self-sufficient and integrate into mainstream society. This policy has been the main government policy for 50 years even though Ms. Lin argues that collective management might be a better option for the indegenous communities, allowing them to collectively manage their traditional territory. Varamon Ramangkura will discuss te impact of recent WTO free-trade versus the environment disputes on industry in Thailand. Ms Ramangkura will show that pressure from the WTO on the Thai government is forcing the closure of local shrimp farms and reducing the sustainability of this industry in Thailand. Shimamura Kazuyuki will analyze the problems of the land use system in Japan. Even after recent reforms in land use, the municipalities enact undemocratic, informal and opaque local ordinances for land use. Mr. Shimamura argues that the reforms must be adopted by the local governments and made fiscally transparent, be based on the needs of the citizens and that there is a necessity to create a legal foundation for broader delegation, particularly regarding the comprehensive planning system at the municipality level.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, third floor, east wing

Lin Shu-ya Fellow Stanford Program in International Legal Studies
Varamon Ramangkura Fellow Stanford Program in International Legal Studies
Shimamura Kazuyuki Fellow Stanford Program in International Legal Studies
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The overall goal of our paper is to explore this question of how China's policy will likely respond as the nation enters the WTO. Specifically, we will have three objectives. First, we briefly review China's existing agriculture policy and past performance of China's agriculture and how it has changed during the past 20 years of reform. Next, we examine the main features of the agreement that China must adhere to as they enter WTO. Finally, we consider a number of possible ways that policy makers may respond, primarily focusing on the national government's viewpoint.

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Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
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The overall goal of this section is to understand how WTO will affect the agriculture sector in China. To accomplish this goal we have two specific objectives. First, we seek to provide measures of the distortions in China's agricultural sector at a time immediately prior to the nation's accession to WTO. Second, we seek to assess how well integrated China's markets are in order to understand which areas of the country and which segments of the farming population will likely be isolated from or affected by the changes that WTO will bring. Ultimately, with a knowledge of the size and magnitude of the impacts, researchers will be better able to being working on understanding how the policies that WTO will impose on China will change the gap between the domestic and international price and affect imports and exports, domestic production and production, income and poverty.

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Scott Rozelle
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China and the World Trade Organization

On balance, will the nation's accession to WTO help or hurt rural residents? How will they affect rural incomes? Who in the rural economy will get hurt? Are there some in the rural economy who will be insulated from the effects of WTO?

The general goal of our essay will be to begin the discussion of these critical questions. In particular, we will attempt to meet this broad goal by pursuing three sets of objectives. First, we will examine the record of rural incomes, in general, and then focus on how employment may be affected by China's accession to WTO.

Second, we will attempt to understand how WTO will affect the agriculture sector, in particular. To do so, we will provide measures of the distortions in China's agricultural sector at a time immediately prior to the nation's accession to WTO and seek to assess how well integrated China's markets are in order to understand which areas of the country and which segments of the farming population will likely be isolated from or affected by the changes that WTO will bring. Ultimately, with a knowledge of the size and magnitude of the impacts, researchers will be better able to begin working on understanding how the policies that WTO will impose on China will change the gap between the domestic and international price and affect imports and exports, domestic production and production, prices, income and poverty.

Third, we will examine the policy options that the government has available to them in the wake of WTO.

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Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
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How has the largely American war in Afghanistan--the terrorist attacks of 11 September, the counterattack that began on 7 October, and the retreat of Taliban forces since 13 November--affected the foreign policy environment now facing Northeast and Southeast Asian states? Is this the beginning of Cold War II? Has terrorism replaced communism as the enemy of a new and enduring global alliance led by the United States? How do East Asian governments see themselves in relation to this anti-terrorist coalition? As enthusiasts eager to defend or promote democracy in politics and moderation in religion? As joiners hoping to elicit American support for the repression of "terrorism" inside their own countries, e.g., in Tibet, Aceh, and the Sulu archipelago? As bystanders skeptical of American motives and resentful of American influence, but resigned to their inability to curb American hegemony? As balancers eager to organize East Asia into a region able to defend itself against unchecked American power? Matters relevant to the answering of such questions include: disappointing economic trends in much of East Asia; the likely impact of the compromises reaching at the recent World Trade Organization meeting in Qatar; the status and implications of the proposed free trade area between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); changing affinities and tensions among ASEAN members; military progress or failure in the effort to destroy Al Qaeda; and the possible involvement of East Asian contingents in a UN-brokered arrangement for the stabilization of Afghanistan. Simon SC Tay teaches international law at the National University of Singapore. He was selected for three terms as a Nominated Member of the Singapore Parliament. His many publications include A New ASEAN in a New Millennium (2000); Preventive Diplomacy and the ASEAN Regional Forum (1999); and "Towards a Singaporean Civil Society," in Southeast Asian Affairs 1998. He also writes stories and poems; his 1991 book, Stand Alone, was short-listed for the Commonwealth Prize. In 2000 the World Economic Forum named him a "global leader of tomorrow."

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Simon SC Tay Chairman Speaker Singapore Institute of International Affairs
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Mr. Clark has over ten years of telecoms and technology financing and consulting experience. He has seven years of experience in China's telecom market and has been involved in the Internet in China since its commercial inception in 1995. He is the founder and managing director of BDA (China), a telecommunications and technology consulting and research firm focused on China. Duncan has leveraged his understanding of finance, telecoms and technology to build BDA into a leading Internet and telecoms consultancy in China. He speaks at a variety of industry, academic, and government events and is a technology columnist for The South China Morning Post.

Encina Hall, third floor, Philippines Conference Room

Duncan Clark Founder and Managing Director BDA
Seminars
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As China is gradually integrated into the international economic, security, and politics system, the tension between technological self-reliance and the need to build its technological enhancement on what is available in international market, will inevitably increase. Reflecting this tension, China's encryption policy was thrust into the international limelight in late 1999 and the first half of 2000. The early encryption regulations were announced and later were clarified. A wide range of international media has covered controversies related to the encryption policy. For every nation in the world, encryption's multifaceted nature requires a painstaking effort balancing potentially competing interests. It is even more so for China, the country which will officially join the WTO at the end of 2001. The concerns of multiple stakeholders about the future of encryption technology and its impact have raised policy questions about the management and control of encryption technology. Among the questions Chinese decision makers face are the following: --How to evaluate China's current encryption policy from an international perspective? --How to justify the toughness of the original encryption regulations and the relaxation afterwards in China's complex and rapidly changing domestic and international context? The purpose of Dr. Yuan's study is to assist Chinese policymakers in analyzing the status quo of the policy, objectives, and factors affecting encryption policymaking and to offer suggestions for the future. It provides an integrated assessment of how encryption policy decisions can and might affect diverse military, commercial, and political interests in China and suggests how those interests might be balanced most effectively.

Okimoto Conference Room, Third Floor, Encina Hall, East Wing

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Mr. Tai is on leave from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Taipei, Taiwan while he is here at Shorenstein APARC. To attend the luncheon program please respond to Leigh Wang by Wednesday, September 26, 2001. You can reach her at 650-724-6405 or via email at lzwang@stanford.edu.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Stephen Tai Visiting Scholar Speaker the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Hailed by the New York Times as one of China's most influential intellectuals, Liu Junning is the founder and editor of the Journal Res Publica. Formerly a Fellow at the Institute of Political Science at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liu is responsible for the Chinese translation of numerous works on democracy and classic liberal thought. In 1999 his collected essays were published as Republic, Democracy, Constitutionalism. He holds a doctorate in political theory from Beijing University.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Central Wing, Third Floor

Liu Junning Former Fellow Speaker Institute of Political Science, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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