World Bank
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Anwar Ibrahim was deputy prime minister of Malaysia in the 1990s. He also served as Malaysia's minister of finance. A sharp disagreement with then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad led to Anwar's dismissal, prosecution--many would say outright persecution--and imprisonment.

Upon regaining his freedom, Anwar took up his current role as an opposition voice. He is currently a distinguished visiting professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Since his release he has also held lectureships at St. Anthony's College (Oxford) and the School of Advanced International Studies (Johns Hopkins). He has advised the World Bank on questions of governance and accountability. Recently he was appointed honorary president of AccountAbility, a London-based organization that advocates socially responsible business practices.

This event is co-sponsored by the Southeast Asia Forum at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

Bechtel Conference Center

Anwar Ibrahim Former Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Speaker
Conferences
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For over a decade, policymakers in Washington and other capitals have predicted the imminent collapse of North Korea's political, economic, and social systems. In the last 15 years, however, the regime has survived the loss of its patron states, the death of founding leader Kim Il Sung, massive agricultural failure, and a nuclear weapons dispute with the U.S.

In this public seminar hosted by Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Brookings' Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies (CNAPS), leading experts on North Korea will discuss the most recent developments in its grand strategy, economic, politics, and foreign relations.

 

This seminar is based on the book North Korea: 2005 and Beyond, edited by Philip Yun and Gi-Wook Shin and published in January 2006 by Shorenstein APARC and the Brookings Institution Press. Several speakers in this event contributed to the volume, copies of which will be available for purchase.

Westin Grand Hotel
Washington Room, Lower Level
2350 M Street, NW Washington, D.C.

Bruce Klinger Analyst Speaker Eurasia Group
Wonhyuk Lim Consultant Speaker The World Bank
Daniel C. Sneider Associate Director for Research Speaker Stanford University
Robert Carlin Visiting Fellow Speaker Stanford University
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 723-2408 (650) 723-6530
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
Gi-Wook Shin_0.jpg
PhD

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in Sociology; senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; the director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center since 2005; and the founding director of the Korea Program since 2001, all at Stanford University. As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

Shin is the author/editor of twenty-five books and numerous articles. His recent books include Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Shifting Gears in Innovation Policy from Asia (2020); Strategic, Policy and Social Innovation for a Post-Industrial Korea: Beyond the Miracle (2018); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); Asia’s Middle Powers? (2013); Troubled Transition: North Korea's Politics, Economy, and External Relations (2013); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007); Rethinking Historical Injustice and Reconciliation in Northeast Asia (2006); and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin’s latest book, Talent Giants in the Asia-Pacific Century, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India, will be published by Stanford University Press in 2025. In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. In May 2024, Shin also launched the new Taiwan Program at APARC.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations and historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia and to talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before coming to Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

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Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director of the Korea Program
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Gi-Wook Shin Director Speaker Stanford University

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-6530
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Pantech Fellow
MA

Scott Snyder is a senior associate in the International Relations program of The Asia Foundation and Pacific Forum CSIS, and is based in Washington, DC. He spent four years in Seoul as Korea Representative of The Asia Foundation between 2000 and 2004. Previously, he served as a program officer in the Research and Studies Program of the U.S. Institute of Peace, and as acting director of the Asia Society's Contemporary Affairs Program. He has recently edited, with L. Gordon Flake, a study titled Paved With Good Intentions: The NGO Experience in North Korea (2003), and is author of Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior (1999).

Snyder received his BA from Rice University and an MA from the Regional Studies East Asia Program at Harvard University. He was the recipient of an Abe Fellowship, administered by the Social Sciences Research Council, in 1998-99, and was a Thomas G. Watson Fellow at Yonsei University in South Korea in 1987-88.

Scott Snyder Senior Associate Speaker The Asia Foundation

APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-9747 (650) 723-6530
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Pantech Visiting Scholar
JD

Philip W. Yun is currently vice president for Resource Development at The Asia Foundation, based in San Francisco. Prior to joining The Asia Foundation, Yun was a Pantech Scholar in Korean Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

At Stanford, his research focused on the economic and political future of Northeast Asia. From 2001 to 2004, Yun was vice president and assistant to the chairman of H&Q Asia Pacific, a premier U.S. private equity firm investing in Asia. From 1994 to 2001, Yun served as an official at the United States Department of State, serving as a senior advisor to two Assistant Secretaries of State, as a deputy to the head U.S. delegate to the four-party Korea peace talks and as a senior policy advisor to the U.S. Coordinator for North Korea Policy.

Prior to government service, Yun practiced law at the firms of Pillsbury Madison & Sutro in San Francisco and Garvey Schubert & Barer in Seattle, and was a foreign legal consultant in Seoul, Korea. Yun attended Brown University and the Columbia School of Law. He graduated with an A.B. in mathematical economics (magna cum laude and phi beta kappa) and was a Fulbright Scholar to Korea. He is on the board of directors of the Ploughshares Fund and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy.

Philip Yun Vice President for Resources Development Speaker The Asia Foundation
Seminars
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The rise of Asia is regarded in most of the world as primarily an economic phenomenon. Asian economies have rebounded robustly since the 1997 financial crisis, with growth rates in many countries greatly exceeding the global average. Yet corruption remains a problem throughout the region, significantly cramping the extent and potential of Asia's "rise."

In the 2005 "Corruption Perceptions Index" produced by the watchdog group Transparency International, most of the 22 Asian nations received low rankings and scores. Indonesia, for example, is ranked 137th among 159 nations. India and China fare only somewhat better, ranking 88th and 78th respectively. (The United States, by comparison, ranks 17th in the world.) Corruption -- defined by the United Nations Development Program as the abuse of public power for private benefit through bribery, extortion, influence peddling, nepotism, fraud, or embezzlement -- not only undermines investment and economic growth; it also aggravates poverty. In India, even the

poor have to bribe officials to obtain basic services.

Graft also undermines the effectiveness of states. The World Bank, for example, has estimated that the Philippines government between 1977 and 1997 "lost" a total of $48 billion to corruption. Why is graft a serious problem in Asian countries? Can their leaders minimize it and thereby further improve and sustain economic growth -- or is this task hopeless? My research suggests that curbing corruption in most Asian nations is difficult, mainly because of a lack of political will. However, it is not an impossible dream, as the examples of Singapore and Hong Kong demonstrate.

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Current History
Authors
Jon Quah
Jon Quah
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Professor Park will address the changes that have occurred in the Chinese labor market over the past quarter century, focusing on the extent to which labor market reforms have successfully created a well-functioning market for labor with a high degree of labor mobility. Like other rapidly growing developing countries, China has experienced rapid structural change featuring a steady flow of labor from agriculture to industry, and from rural areas to urban areas. As a transition economy, China has shifted gradually from planned allocation of labor in state-sector jobs to a more open labor market. Although the large magnitudes of these changes are impressive, reform of the labor market has been halting, uneven, and difficult, with much additional reform still required. Prof. Park will look at several dimensions of the Chinese labor market: labor allocation, wage setting, regional differences, and ownership sectors. He will conclude by discussing the key policy challenges that lie ahead.

Albert Park is Associate Professor of Economics and Faculty Associate of the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan. He is also a research affiliate at the Population Studies Center and chairs the faculty steering committee for Michigan's China Data Center. Dr. Park has been a visiting professor and researcher at Harvard University and Peking University, as well as other research institutions in China and Taiwan, and has served as a consultant for the World Bank on several projects analyzing economic development issues in China, including the Bank's current China Poverty Assessment project. Dr. Park earned a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Food Research Institute and Department of Economics at Stanford University in 1996. His research interests include economic development, economic transition, labor, applied microeconomics, and the Chinese economy. He is involved in numerous collaborative research activities in China, including several large survey projects to study labor market developments in urban areas, and rural education, health, and labor outcomes. He has published over thirty journal articles and chapters in edited volumes, and is the coeditor of a forthcoming volume titled Education and Reform in China. At Michigan, he teaches a graduate course on the microeconomics of development and an undergraduate course on the Chinese economy.

This series is co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

Philippines Conference Room

Albert Park Associate Professor of Economics Speaker University of Michigan
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In this paper we set out to accomplish three objectives. First, we wanted to track and describe the way the fiscal reforms have been implemented in China's townships. Second, we have tried to identify the effect that the fiscal reforms have had on the fiscal health of the township. This objective was pursued in three contexts: the effect on the average township; the effect on townships in different provinces; and the effect on townships in poor and rich townships. Finally, we sought to assess the impact that the fiscal reforms had on village fiscal health and farmer satisfaction.

Although farmers certainly have expressed their support for tax and fee reduction through a variety of media, our results show that the fiscal reforms are far more complicated and complex than tax reduction policies. They include a large set of policies that have sought to reassign expenditures, realign responsibilities (for control over resources that flow from county to town and town to county), reduce the importance of extrabudgetary and self raised funds, and increase investment into the public goods infrastructure in rural areas. When assessing the broad impact of these policies on township fiscal health, we find the average township has not fared well. Although county to town transfers have risen, the targeted transfers to offset the decline due to the tax and fee reduction policies do not nearly cover the losses of fiscal resources in the system as a whole. In addition, many policies are putting increasing control in the hands of the county financial office. through changes such as increasing requirement to hand up town to county transfers and expenditure reassignments (even though the fiscal resources come out of the township's budget). Hence, overall the fiscal condition of township's operating budget has clearly deteriorated between 2000 and 2004.

The bright side of the fiscal reforms has come in the area of capital budget management and flows of fiscal resources into new infrastructure investment. Between 2000 and 2004 there has been a veritable explosion of investment into the rural economy, mostly in roads, but also into irrigation, drinking water and to a lesser degree into clinics. The investments have risen largely due to the rising allocation by upper level governments. While we show that the rising investment from any source increases farmer satisfaction, there are some concerns with the new effort to improve rural infrastructure. First, in many places (and especially in Jiangsu and other richer townships) as investments from above have risen requirements for matching funds apparently have led to an increase in township debt. Second, the increasing reliance investment from above also has a drawback. While any investment from any source is shown to increase the satisfaction of farmers, ceteris paribus, when the investments come from above, they appear to reduce farmer satisfaction. Apparently, when villages are less involved with the project selection, design and implementation, the projects leave farmers less satisfied.

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Report to the World Bank, Fiscal Reform and the Role of the Township
Authors
Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
Linxiu Zhang
Haomaio
Loren Brandt
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This report provides a preliminary examination of changes in village fiscal affairs between 2000 and 2004. The basis for this assessment is a survey of 101 villages in 50 townships in 25 counties in 5 provinces in China that was carried out between March and April of 2005. The provinces include Jilin, Hebei, Shanxi, Sichuan and Jiangsu. In each province, the counties, townships and villages were selected to provide a representative cross-section. Our village survey was complemented by an investigation into fiscal changes in each of the 50 townships. In this report, we focus on the revenue and expenditure implications of these changes at the village level. We provide an overall assessment for all 100 villages, but also examine village-level differences across provinces, as well as differences between villages in the richest and poorest quintiles of our sample.

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Report to the World Bank, Village Finance: Tax-for-Fee-Reform, Village Operating Budgets and Public Goods Investment
Authors
Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
Linxiu Zhang
Yuanyuan Yan Yuanyuan Yan
Loren Brandt Loren Brandt
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In the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis and the Chinese accession to the WTO, the East Asian countries that have up until now been ambivalent towards regional trade integration have recently begun actively to pursue regional and bilateral trade agreements. The recent start of negotiations between Korea and Japan on a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) has spurred much debate among many different groups and financial sectors in Korea. However, the contention of the various interest groups is not necessarily based on an economic rationale. Professor Bark will present the political issues that may emerge during the negotiation of the Korea-Japan FTA and some policy recommendations to reduce the negative effects of the FTA.

Taeho Bark is a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University. From 1998 he has served as commissioner of the Korea Trade Commission. He has also served as Chair of the Investment Expert Group of APEC, Secretary for Economic Affairs, Office of the President, ROK, and as a consultant at the World Bank.

Philippines Conference Room

Taeho Bark Professor, Graduate School of International Studies Seoul National University
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As seen in the previous sections, China's reformers, more than anything, have followed a
strategy based on providing incentives through property rights reforms, even though in China the shift to private ownership is today far from complete. The reforms started with the Household Responsibility System (HRS), a policy of radical decollectivization that allowed farmers to keep the residual output of their farms after paying their agricultural taxes and completing their mandatory delivery quotas. Farmers also began to exercise control over much of the production process (although in the initial years, the local state shared some control rights and in some places still do today). In this way the first reforms in the agricultural sector reshuffled property rights in an attempt to increase work incentives and exploit the specific knowledge of individuals about the production process (Perkins, 1994). In executing the property rights reforms, leaders also fundamentally restructured farms in China. Within a few years, for example, reformers completely broke up the larger collective farms into small household farms. In China today there are more than 200 million farms, the legacy of an HRS policy that gave the primary responsibilities for farming to the individual household. McMillan, Whalley and Zhu (1989), Fan (1991), Lin (1992) and Huang and Rozelle (1996) have all documented the strong, positive impact that property rights reforms had on output and productivity. 

In addition to property rights reform and transforming incentives, the other major
task of reformers is to create more efficient institutions of exchange. Markets-whether
classic competitive ones or some workable substitute-increase efficiency by facilitating
transactions among agents to allow specialization and trade and by providing information
through a pricing mechanism to producers and consumers about the relative scarcity of
resources. But markets, in order to function efficiently, require supporting institutions to
ensure competition, define and enforce property rights and contracts, ensure access to
credit and finance and provide information (John McMillan, 1997; World Bank 2002).
These institutions were either absent in the Communist countries or, if they existed, were
inappropriate for a market system. Somewhat surprisingly, despite their importance in
the reform process there is much less work on the success that China has had in building
markets and the effect that the markets has had on the economy.

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Food and Agricultural Organization
Authors
Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
Jikun Huang
Xiang Bi
Authors
Daniel Sneider
News Type
News
Date
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President Bush's week-long swing through six Asian nations is long overdue. Despite being home to half the world's population and the globe's most dynamic economies, Asia has received scant attention from this administration. Unfortunately the president has only one subject on his agenda -- the war on terrorism. The president is touching lightly, if at all, on the other issues that matter most to this region -- economic globalization, China's growing presence, and political instability fed by economic disparities. This is not surprising. The Bush administration doesn't seem to think much about global economic issues. And when it does speak, as it has recently on the issue of currency manipulation by China and Japan, the administration's policy is confusing and contradictory. In Asia, the single-minded focus on terrorism leaves an opening for others -- China first of all -- who are more in tune with the region's concerns. "I've never seen a time when the U.S. has been so distracted and China has been so focused,'' Ernest Bower, the head of the U.S. business council for Southeast Asia, told a business magazine.

Regional economic bloc

Faced with multiple challenges, the countries of Southeast Asia have accelerated plans to create a regional economic bloc like the European Union. The Chinese, followed closely by India and Japan, are embracing the idea, proposing the creation of a vast East Asian free trade area that would encompass nearly 2 billion people, but notably not include the United States. When national security adviser Condoleezza Rice briefed reporters on the president's trip, the focus was almost entirely on security issues. Bush's itinerary is designed to highlight the nations working closely with the United States to combat Al-Qaida-linked Islamist terror groups in Southeast Asia -- Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand. Or to reward those who are backing the war in Iraq -- Japan and Australia. Even at the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok, Bush plans to `"stress the need to put security at the heart of APEC's mission because prosperity and security are inseparable,'' Rice said. No one can argue with that basic proposition. The example she cited was the terrorist bombing a year ago in Bali, Indonesia, which shut down tourism, a vital source of income for Indonesians. But let's not look at that link through the wrong end of the telescope. We need to grapple with the poverty and income inequality in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-populated nation, which feeds growing Islamic radicalism.

China drives growth

East Asia has largely emerged from the financial crisis that swept through this region in 1997-98 and sent countries such as Indonesia into economic collapse. Economic growth should pick up to almost 6 percent next year, the World Bank has predicted. But much of this is driven by China's rapid growth, which is in turn sparking a sharp rise in trade within the region, much of it between countries in the region and China. These countries look warily on this rising giant. China is sucking away foreign investment from places like Silicon Valley that used to flow to them, and with it, jobs. At the same time, progress toward a global free market that ensures fair competition has stalled. The world trade talks in Cancun last month collapsed in rancor, and the United States seems content now to pursue its own bilateral trade deals with favored countries such as Singapore and Australia.

10-nation association

This has encouraged the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations to accelerate plans to create a European Union-style economic community. The Chinese sent a huge, high-powered delegation led by their premier to their recent meeting, signed a friendship treaty with the group and pledged to negotiate a free-trade zone with the group. "The Chinese are moving in in a big way,'' says Stanford University expert Donald K. Emmerson. Where is the United States in all this? "We're outside, and our businesses are going to be outside,'' says Brookings Institution global economic expert Lael Brainard. "The Bush administration needs to get a handle on this.'' If it doesn't, the United States will wake up one day from its infatuation with unilateralism and return to Asia to find that the furniture has been rearranged and the locks have been changed.

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