Abstract

Drawing on the alliance and identity politics literature, we argue that as the U.S.-China tensions intensify, citizens of U.S. allies tend to hold more negative views against China. This is because the strategic competition between the two powers reinforces the perceptual foundation of shared identity, amplifying perceived threats to national security and economic interests as well as values shared between the U.S. and its allies. For the same reason, we further expect public views toward China and the U.S. to be conversely related among citizens of U.S. allies as the bilateral competition grows. We test our propositions in the Asia-Pacific region, where the U.S. has several allies and its tensions with China are most acute. By analyzing the Gallup World Poll (2006–2022) and Asian Barometer Survey (Wave 3-5), we show that as the U.S.-China tensions intensify, citizens of U.S. allies tend to exhibit less favorability toward China as well as contrasting attitudes toward the two powers. However, such patterns are less likely to appear among those living in non-allies. This study provides not only theoretical implications for the study of foreign public opinion but also important policy suggestions.