The United States Should Seek Engagement Without Provocation of China

The United States Should Seek Engagement Without Provocation of China

While China's current policy prioritizes regime security over economic growth, the United States should hold open the door to a shift by Beijing back to a policy package emphasizing openness. Washington should also restore credibility to its One China Policy and lower the rhetorical temperature.
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen shakes hands with People’s Republic of China Vice Premier He Lifeng in front of U.S. and Chinese flags U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen (R) greets People’s Republic of China (PRC) Vice Premier He Lifeng at the start of a bilateral meeting at the Ritz Carlton Hotel on November 09, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Note: this piece builds on a previous article by the authors, published by The Washington Quarterly.


No foreign policy challenge is more important, or difficult, than finding a way to simultaneously deter and engage China without provoking unwanted behaviors. Achieving this requires understanding the perceptions and priorities shaping Beijing’s actions.  

Despite China’s worsening economic problems and waning international trust, the March 2024 session of the National People’s Congress has reaffirmed Beijing’s determination to stick with policies fuelling domestic discontent and alienating foreign partners. The reasons are structural, not simply strong-man egoism. Policies in China are tightly interconnected, reflecting hard-to-change perceptions reinforced by bureaucratic and personal interests. Changing one facet requires changing the entire policy package. For now, that package prioritizes domestic stability and security over economic growth.

Beijing has fallen into an old mindset that sacrifices growth to reduce vulnerability to external and internal threats that leaders believe endanger the regime and China’s future. This is not good for China, the United States, or the world. Washington cannot achieve immediate or fundamental changes in China’s behavior but ill-considered actions can make things worse. The best we currently can achieve is wary coexistence, careful management to reduce dangers, and keeping the way open for a better day.

Read the rest of the essay online at the East Asia Forum.

Read More

US-China meeting at the Filoli estate prior to APEC 2023 in San Francisco
News

Stopping the Spiral: Threat Perception and Interdependent Policy Behavior in U.S.-China Relations

A new article for The Washington Quarterly, co-authored by Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton, investigates the drivers of Chinese policy behavior, assesses the role of U.S. policy in shaping it, and suggests steps to reduce the heightened tensions between the two superpowers.
cover link Stopping the Spiral: Threat Perception and Interdependent Policy Behavior in U.S.-China Relations
U.S. Seaman Xi Chan stands lookout on the flight deck as the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) transits the Taiwan Strait during routine underway operations.
Commentary

This Is What America Is Getting Wrong About China and Taiwan

For a half-century, America has avoided war with China over Taiwan largely through a delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance.
cover link This Is What America Is Getting Wrong About China and Taiwan
A pair of Kawasaki P-3, part of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force
Commentary

The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness

The ultimate choice that must be made.
cover link The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness