In 1978, under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China began its transition from a centrally planned economy to a more market-oriented system, marking a departure from Mao Zedong's economic strategies and setting the foundation for China’s unprecedented growth, which continues today. Focused on industrial production, infrastructure development, and market mechanisms, the reforms facilitated rapid economic growth, poverty reduction, and significant improvements in living standards. However, managing this monumental transition required careful attention to leadership and organizational changes within the Communist Party. To ensure the success of these reforms, new party elites had to be selected, and the leadership structure had to adapt to a rapidly changing political and economic environment.

These organizational shifts are the research focus of Shilin Jia, APARC’s 2024-25 Shorenstein postdoctoral fellow on contemporary Asia, whose work provides a comprehensive understanding of how leadership changes shaped China’s rise as a global economic powerhouse. Jia examines the career trajectories of high-level Chinese political elites during the country's economic reform period (1978-2011). By combining quantitative analysis and historical data, his research explores how the Chinese party-state strategically managed elite circulation as a governance tool during this period of profound transformation.

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Detangling Bureaucratic Networks

Jia's guiding research topic is how the Chinese bureaucracy filled high-level positions in response to systemic changes. He views these career trajectories not as individual career choices but as reflections of the party-state's strategic needs in filling positions amidst sweeping economic reforms. His study not only examines individual political elites but also explores how the broader political system organized and managed elite careers to ensure stability during this era of great change.

Jia has developed a unique dataset tracking how job vacancies within the Chinese political system cascaded through chains of replacements. These personnel changes were often highly coordinated, reflecting the party-state’s strategy in managing the political elite. Jia’s dataset provides insights into the governance mechanisms that underpinned political stability during China’s reform period.

In addition to his primary research, Jia engages in several side projects, including a study of the evolution of the Chinese party-state’s official ideology. One of his more interdisciplinary projects examines the perceptions of nations over the past 120 years using data from Google Books. These diverse interests highlight Jia’s broader commitment to utilizing data to address enduring questions in political sociology.

A Quantitative Approach

Jia’s research is rooted in a data-driven sociological approach, using new data sources to study traditional questions of political science and sociology. His methodological approach was inspired by the work of sociologist Harrison White, particularly his concept of "vacancy chains"; in the case of China’s political bureaucracy, this concept describes the career sequence in which one official’s departure from a role creates an opportunity for another to fill it. Jia explains why China’s political structure  provides a particularly unique environment to track such vacancy chains: “The Chinese state’s long bureaucratic tradition and closed internal labor market create a relatively structured environment, making tracking such career movements possible.” This means that, despite the opacity of China’s system, Jia is still able to examine political career trajectories more systematically than might be possible in other political contexts.

One issue, as Jia notes, is his reliance on data: “My biggest challenge has always been dealing with observational (and mostly historical) data. I cannot run experiments, and in most cases, I cannot interview my subjects.” As a result, he must balance his quantitative research by extensively engaging with historical sources to understand the broader context in which his data was generated, always navigating the tension between historical complexity and theoretical clarity. He likens this challenge to Richard Feynman’s famous analogy about deducing the rules of chess simply by observing the game. 

An Interdisciplinary Home

LIfe as a Stanford postdoctoral fellow has given Jia “the luxury to focus entirely on my research without the demands of teaching, allowing me to refine my ideas and explore new directions.” Being part of the  APARC community Jia can engage with leading scholars in the field of contemporary Asia; his interactions have inspired him to refine his theoretical approach and explore new research directions.

According to Jia, one of the most valuable aspects of his time at APARC has been the opportunity to collaborate with Professor Xueguang Zhou’s research group, whose members are all interested in studying the careers of Chinese political elites from an organizational perspective. “I learned a lot from the analytical approaches adopted by Xueguang and his students. Thanks to the regular group meetings we had, I also developed some new ideas about how to analyze my data,” Jia reflects.

APARC, with its interdisciplinary approach, has been a boon to Jia’s work. He remarks, “I discovered more ways of doing social sciences. Unlike my PhD institution, APARC… [brings] together scholars from diverse methodological and theoretical backgrounds to a broader audience.” This exposure has expanded his understanding of how social sciences can have a more profound impact beyond academia, especially through collaboration with policy experts.

For young scholars entering the field, Jia urges them not to confine themselves to specialized silos but to seek out interdisciplinary approaches. “The academic division of labor tends to entrench young scholars in specialized niches. But often there is a much bigger world out there in which similar problems are being studied from different angles,” he advises. His message is clear: there are richer insights to be gained by crossing traditional disciplinary boundaries.

Looking to the future, Jia plans to release his vacancy chain dataset so that others can take advantage of his hard work. “I’m preparing to release my vacancy chain dataset for public access, after spending 10 years collecting and refining it to ensure the highest quality,” he shares. His goal is to make his research fully replicable and contribute to the broader academic community.

With plans to present a new paper later this year, Jia is poised to continue advancing our understanding of political elites and the complex processes that shape governance in China. His work promises to be a key resource for scholars and policymakers interested in the intersection of political organization, elite circulation, and governance in contemporary Asia.