Rapid technological advances are reshaping how nations project power, deter adversaries, and work with allies. Against this background, wars are becoming faster, more autonomous, and increasingly dependent on commercial technologies once considered outside the scope of national defense.

This was the central message of “Frontiers of Defense Tech in the Shifting U.S. Alliances with Japan and Beyond: AI, Cyber, and Space,” a conference held May 4 and organized by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s (APARC) Japan Program. The event brought together diplomats, military officials, scholars, and technology executives to examine how emerging technologies are reshaping deterrence, alliance coordination, and strategic competition across the Asia-Pacific.

Policymakers and military officials today face a herculean task of adapting to the rapidly developing technological landscape, as U.S. allies are forced to reassess their long-held national security assumptions at a time of momentous changes in U.S. foreign and trade policies and Washington’s turn away from the international rules-based order, said Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the director of APARC and the Japan Program, in his welcome remarks.

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The conference agenda was designed to address urgent questions, explained Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor in Japanese Studies and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). These include how to formulate effective policies on export controls, data and technology sovereignty, and the integration of commercial technologies into defense systems; how to maintain interoperability, trust, and institutional frameworks that underpin deterrence; and how to ensure that norms, standards, and safety measures keep up with the pace of innovation  – all while alliance commitments are questioned and government leadership in stimulating innovation and technological cooperation is declining.

Across the domains of artificial intelligence, cyber conflict, defense manufacturing, and space infrastructure, speakers returned to a common theme:  technological threats are no longer adjacent to geopolitics. They are increasingly at its center.

Kotaro Otsuki, Japan’s consul general in San Francisco, framed the discussion in terms of democratic governance and alliance cohesion. Maintaining an international order grounded in the rule of law, democracy, and human rights, he argued, remains essential to the U.S.-Japan alliance. He noted that Japan has identified 17 strategic areas for cooperation with the United States, including AI and space technologies, to strengthen deterrence and preserve technological competitiveness.

Alliances in a Time of Crisis

The first panel focused on Pacific alliances and the growing instability created by technological acceleration. Rui Matsukawa, a member of Japan’s House of Councilors, described the current moment as an “era of crisis” requiring greater resilience across economic, military, and technological systems. “We’re trying to strengthen sustainability and resilience – and it’s about survival,” Matsukawa said.

Speakers repeatedly pointed to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as evidence that low-cost drones, cyber capabilities, and AI-enabled intelligence systems are rapidly changing the character of warfare. Victor Cha, professor of government and director of Asian studies at Georgetown University, argued that alliances may increasingly become the primary venue for establishing norms governing autonomous technologies and AI systems. “If the U.S. and allies can work together, someone needs to set the rules and norms for the use of tech,” Cha said.

Former U.S. Ambassador Tom Schieffer warned that technological sophistication can also accelerate miscalculation. Drawing comparisons to Cold War crisis communications, Schieffer emphasized that diplomacy and trust remain indispensable even in highly digitized conflicts. “We’re human, and we’re going to make mistakes – and tech is also going to make mistakes,” he said.

Dual-Use Innovation Reshaping Defense Strategy

The conference’s second panel turned to defense innovation and the growing integration of commercial technology into military operations. Several speakers described the 2026 Iran conflict as the first major war fundamentally shaped by AI-enabled targeting and intelligence fusion systems.

Michael Brown, former director of the Defense Innovation Unit at the U.S. Department of Defense, outlined how AI systems can integrate satellite imagery, drone feeds, radar, and signals intelligence into a unified operational interface capable of generating strike recommendations in near real time.

Yet, speakers also cautioned against overreliance on automated systems. Brown referenced reports that faulty data contributed to civilian casualties during early strikes in the Iran conflict, raising questions about accountability, targeting accuracy, and the ethics of AI-enabled military decision-making.

The panel also highlighted the industrial consequences of technological competition. Multiple speakers argued that the United States and its allies are struggling to produce defense systems, drones, and critical technologies at the scale required for prolonged conflict.

Arthur Dubois, co-founder and CEO of GridAero, described logistics as a central vulnerability in the Indo-Pacific theater, where geographic distance complicates military operations and supply chains. “If you don’t have logistics, everything breaks down,” he said.

Perspectives from Two National Security Advisors

The conference’s keynote fireside chat, moderated by FSI Director Colin Kahl, featured Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, the 25th U.S. national security advisor, and Masataka Okano, former national security advisor and vice minister for foreign affairs of Japan. Both emphasized that technological dependence has blurred the line between economic security and military security.

“We are in a period of urgency,” McMaster said, arguing that strategic competitors increasingly view democratic alliances as “weak, decadent, and divided.” McMaster identified four major priorities for the United States and its allies: maintaining military technological advantages, rebuilding manufacturing capacity, securing critical supply chains, and strengthening energy security. Future wars, he argued, will increasingly involve attacks on information systems and communications infrastructure. “The first battle of the next war will be to blind the enemy and corrupt data,” McMaster said.

Okano focused on the vulnerabilities exposed by prolonged conflict and interconnected digital systems. Cloud infrastructure, transportation networks, semiconductors, and access to energy resources, he argued, must now be treated as core components of national defense. “How can we be confident about the security of the cloud?” Okano asked. “Can we trust the safety of the data and the company of the allied country?”

Rethinking Cybersecurity for the AI Era

A later panel on cyber and AI threats explored how frontier AI models are changing both offensive and defensive security operations. Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at NTT, argued that governments remain overly focused on offensive capabilities while underinvesting in resilience. Matsubara stated that “we tend to focus on the offensive rather than the defensive capabilities […] but isn’t it the same side of the coin?”

Panelists also discussed the role of private firms in shaping cybersecurity governance, particularly as AI systems become more capable of identifying software vulnerabilities, automating attacks, and influencing public narratives.

Space as a Force Multiplier

The conference concluded with a panel on space technologies and their expanding role in military and civilian infrastructure. Speakers emphasized that satellite systems now underpin communications, navigation, financial transactions, weather forecasting, and missile defense architectures.

General John “Jay” Raymond, the first chief of space operations for the U.S. Space Force, described space as “a huge force multiplier” that underpins economic and military power alike.

Jeff Thornburg, CEO and co-founder of Portal Space Systems, stressed how dependent modern societies have become on orbital infrastructure, stating how “without access to GPS, you can’t pump gas or withdraw money at the ATM.”

Throughout the day, speakers argued that alliances are increasingly being redefined through technological interoperability, industrial coordination, and shared infrastructure rather than traditional treaty arrangements alone.

In closing remarks, Tsutsui said the conference reflected a broader shift in global politics – one in which technological resilience, supply chain security, and coordinated innovation are becoming central to alliance strategy. “There are a lot of pain points and bottlenecks that need to be resolved,” Tsutsui said. “There needs to be more collaboration.”