Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia: Deterrence Dominance and Stability

Nuclear weapons play a modest but significant role in the national security strategies of key states in the Asian security region. Relevant in a small number of situations and augmenting conventional forces, their role is frequently indirect. The primary role of nuclear weapons is basic or central deterrence.

Despite ongoing efforts, the offense and defense roles of nuclear weapons continue to be limited. Contemporary conceptions and practices of deterrence, however, span a wide spectrum and differ substantially from that of the Cold War. Absence of severe confrontations, multiple threats of unequal urgency, and the relatively small size of Asian nuclear forces have made general deterrence (as opposed to immediate deterrence) the norm. Extended deterrence continues to be relevant, but is largely psychological and symbolic to assure allies and prevent them from pursuing independent nuclear options.

Nuclear weapons have not fundamentally altered the strategic picture in Asia. They have had a limited impact on the distribution of power, lines of amity and enmity, alliances, and conflict resolution. Although there could be some destabilizing consequences, on net nuclear weapons have contributed to security and stability in Asia that is underpinned by several pillars.

Muthiah Alagappa is a distinguished senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. He has held several appointments at the East-West Center including director of the East-West Center Washington (2001-2007) and director of studies (1999-2001). He has been a visiting professor at Columbia University, Stanford University, Keio University, and the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia; and adjunct faculty at George Washington University, University of Malaya, and National University of Malaysia.

Dr. Alagappa is the series editor for the Asian Security book series published by Stanford University Press and is on the editorial board of several journals. His research interests include international politics and security in Asia and the Pacific and comparative politics of Asia. He has a Ph.D. in international affairs from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

His recent publications include Civil Society and Political Change in Asia: Expanding and Contracting Democratic Space, author and ed., Stanford University Press, 2004, Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features, Stanford University Press 2002, and Coercion and Governance: The Declining Political Role of the Military in Asia, Stanford University Press 2001. He is currently editing a book on nuclear weapons and security in twenty-first century Asia.