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Over the past two decades, China has pursued an ambitious plan to establish an accessible and affordable health system that meets the needs of its population. As part of this journey, China’s leadership implemented comprehensive health system reforms and achieved near-universal health insurance coverage at a relatively low per capita income level. Key to this process was the integration of rural and urban resident health insurance programs, which has proven to yield positive outcomes in health care utilization, physical health, and related equity issues. Thus far, however, the integration’s potential psychological effects have been understudied.

New research, published in the journal Health & Social Care in the Community, addresses this gap in the literature. The researchers – Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, the director of APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP); Peking University’s Gordon Liu; and Renmin University of China’s Yue-Hui Yu and Qin Zhou, the latter a former visiting scholar with AHPP – find that the urban-rural health insurance integration has been beneficial for improving mental health among China’s rural adults.

Their study underscores the potential of policy-driven health system reforms to address longstanding disparities, promote mental well-being in vulnerable communities, and enhance quality of life among aging populations. This is the researchers’ final installment in a series of studies on China’s urban-rural health insurance integration.



Tracking Mental Health Over Eight Years


For decades, China had a fragmented health insurance system, which led to disparities between different populations and hindered the implementation of the Healthy China 2030 blueprint, a bold national strategy to make public health a precondition for all future economic and social development. Responding to this challenge, in 2016, China announced plans to unify its rural and urban health insurance programs. The unified health insurance system, called Urban and Rural Residents’ Basic Medical Insurance (URRBMI), offered equal health service packages and insurance benefits to rural and urban residents. Studies have shown that the integrated system improved healthcare access for nearly 800 million rural residents and helped reduce coverage gaps and inequality. Yet evidence about the integration’s potential psychological impacts has been limited.

Eggleston and her co-authors hypothesized that this reform might also benefit rural adults’ psychological well-being. To test this hypothesis, the researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationally representative survey that tracks health, economic, and social variables among Chinese adults aged 45 and older. The study focused specifically on rural residents, examining changes in mental health, particularly depressive symptoms, before and after the insurance integration. Data from four waves of CHARLS, spanning from 2011 to 2018, allowed the team to analyze trends over a substantial period.

The researchers used an event study combined with a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) approach, capturing the effect of the health insurance integration on depressive symptoms and comparing changes over time between those affected by the reform and a control group not yet impacted (since local governments introduced the integration reforms in different years, samples in the control group had constantly entered the treatment group during the survey period). This method helps isolate the effect of the policy from other confounding factors, providing a clearer picture of causality. The researchers further examined the heterogeneity of the integration effect across subgroups by gender, age, health status, and family economic status. They also analyzed possible mechanisms through which the reform produced psychological effects

Based on our analysis, the integration reform has improved the overall mental health of rural adults, as both their scores of depressive symptoms and the likelihood of becoming depressed decreased.
Eggleston et al.

Key Findings: A Significant Drop in Depression


The researchers find that the health insurance integration was associated with a measurable reduction in depressive symptoms among rural seniors. Specifically:

  • CES-D scores – a standard measure of depression severity (using a version of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) – decreased by an average of 0.441 points among those covered by the reform.
  • The likelihood of experiencing depression dropped by approximately 3.5% in the post-reform period.
  • The decline in depression scores following the integration was continuous, suggesting cumulative effects of the reform. Notably, some psychological benefits appeared up to two years before the reform took effect, likely due to public awareness and positive expectations generated by advance announcements from local authorities.


The results were statistically significant, indicating that the health insurance integration reform has significantly improved the mental health of rural adults and reduced their risk of becoming depressed.

The findings also indicate that a key driver that produced continuous positive psychological effects was the integration’s reduction of health care costs for rural residents, particularly for hospital care. By lowering financial barriers to treatment, the integration improved access to healthcare and made its use more equitable. This, in turn, boosted rural adults’ satisfaction with their health and overall sense of well-being. The improvement may have set off a positive cycle, encouraging more social engagement and physical activity, which helped further ease symptoms of depression.

While the reform reduced depressive symptoms for both male and female older adults, the findings revealed differences across subgroups. It appears the reform did not significantly reduce depressive symptoms for those aged 40-49 and over 70, individuals in poor health, or those in the lowest economic bracket. The researchers attribute this to ongoing financial barriers and limited insurance financing, which may blunt the perceived benefits for high-need groups.

Policy design should pay more attention to rural adults aged over 70, those with chronic disease or disability, and those with low income and little wealth.
Eggleston et al.

Policy Implications: A Path Toward Health Equity


The study’s co-authors highlight several policy implications for China:

  • Expand and standardize coverage: Build on the success of the URRBMI by moving from local-level integration to broader provincial or national coverage, and encourage enrollment among vulnerable populations through subsidies.
  • Improve equity for high-need groups: Design more targeted insurance policies for older adults, those with chronic illnesses or disabilities, and low-income groups, especially by covering outpatient treatments for high-cost conditions.
  • Increase funding for the URRBMI: Despite progress, reimbursement rates remain low, highlighting the need for greater investment in the program.
  • Strengthen rural health infrastructure: Insurance reforms must be paired with improvements in rural healthcare facilities and services to ensure quality care is both accessible and effective.


China’s experience offers valuable lessons for countries aiming to achieve universal health coverage and those grappling with health disparities and aging populations. The positive association between insurance integration and mental health among rural adults in China underscores the importance of comprehensive, inclusive policies addressing financial and social determinants of health.

The study’s findings highlight the need to ensure that the most vulnerable populations benefit equally from health reforms. They also serve as a compelling reminder that thoughtfully designed and implemented reforms can improve physical health and increase mental resilience and social cohesion.

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In Rapidly Aging South Korea, the Economy Is Slow in Creating “Age-Friendly” Jobs

Despite the nation’s rapidly aging demographics, South Korea's economy has not adapted as well as the United States, a new study finds. The researchers, including Stanford health economist and director of the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC Karen Eggleston, show that age-friendly jobs attract a broad range of workers and that structural barriers in the labor market influence which groups can access these roles.
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New research by a team including Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston provides evidence about the positive impact of China’s urban-rural health insurance integration on mental well-being among rural seniors, offering insights for policymakers worldwide.

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Demographic shifts worldwide have increased the number of older workers, and many economies are facing a critical question: Are their labor markets ready to support older workers?

Researchers have found that, in the United States, the surge of older workers has gone hand–in-hand with an increase in the number of “age-friendly jobs” – roles with working conditions more suitable for aging employees, such as placing fewer physical demands or offering greater scheduling flexibility. Yet it remains unclear whether comparable trends have taken hold in other aging economies.

A new study, published in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing, helps fill in this gap by examining the evolution of age-friendly jobs in South Korea (hereafter Korea), where the number of workers aged 50 and over increased by 165 percent from 2000 to 2023. Korea is now officially considered a "super-aged" society, and the government is doubling down on its efforts to bolster the workforce.

The study, co-authored by Hyeongsuk Kim and Chulhee Lee, both of Seoul National University, and Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, the director of APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program, examines Korea’s workforce and economy to determine whether the nation significantly expanded its 50+ workforce by creating job opportunities favorable for older workers or if some other mechanism is at play. 

The co-authors examined the job characteristics experienced by older Koreans relative to their younger counterparts and U.S. older workers. Second, they analyzed data collected in 2020 about Korean workers, evaluating their jobs based on various parameters in the Age-Friendliness Index (AFI), a tool that measures the degree to which jobs are more suitable for older workers. The researchers considered AFI factors such as the requirement for heavy physical activity, the pace of the job, and the possibility of telecommuting. They also examined how the number of age-friendly jobs changed from 2000 to 2020.

Our results underscore that 'age-friendly' jobs appeal to many kinds of workers, not just older adults; and that labor market frictions shape who benefits from age-friendly jobs.
Hyeongsuk Kim, Chulhee Lee, and Karen Eggleston


The study finds that, while age-friendly jobs have increased in Korea, the number grew more slowly than in the United States, indicating that the U.S. market responded more quickly to changes in workforce demographics. Furthermore, the study indicates that older Koreans were not the main beneficiaries of age-friendly jobs. Instead, women and college-educated workers benefited more from these jobs, while non-college-educated men have seen fewer gains. “These results highlight the uneven adaptation of Korea’s labor market to demographic change and suggest that social norms and labor market frictions shape age-friendly job creation and who benefits from those jobs,” the researchers write.

The study also unveils that, in Korea, the working conditions of employees aged 50–61 differ significantly from those aged 62 or older. Despite the nation's high employment rates for those aged 65 and older, the researchers discovered that a third of working Koreans over the age of 62 held jobs requiring heavy physical activity and earned lower wages. Additionally, only a little over one-fifth of them had jobs that allowed for “mostly sitting.”

Labor Market Frictions


The study’s authors propose several explanations for why Korea’s economy, despite a significant increase in older workers, has not adapted as quickly as the United States in placing these workers in age-friendly occupations. One reason is Korea's comparatively low level of pension support, which forces workers to fill a disproportionate number of low-skilled, temporary, and day jobs. It may be that many older workers are forced to work, regardless of whether the jobs are friendly to their needs. Another reason may be the rigidities of the labor market, including strong protections against employees being laid off. Such protections are beneficial for workers, but they restrict companies' ability to restructure their workforce. Moreover, the role of chaebol, or large corporations, may also be significant. Although chaebol are producing and selling more, they have also increased automation and resorted to outsourcing instead of hiring additional workers.

Older workers in Korea are also facing competition from women for age-friendly jobs. The researchers noted significant gender-related changes in the country's education and employment levels. In 2009, the percentage of women enrolling in college surpassed that of men, and the percentage of women in the workforce increased by 2.5% from 2000 to 2023. Korean women are likely to have an even stronger preference for the flexibility of age-friendly jobs than American women because of gendered responsibilities for household production.

The study’s results, researchers said, reinforce key findings from previous studies: "that 'age-friendly' jobs appeal to many kinds of workers, not just older adults; and that labor market frictions shape who benefits from age-friendly jobs."

As governments grapple with rising life expectancies and shrinking traditional working-age populations, ensuring that older adults can continue working safely and with dignity is key to sustaining economic growth and social stability. According to the study, South Korea has made impressive strides in keeping older people in the workforce, but the next challenge is ensuring work itself evolves to meet their needs.

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Despite the nation’s rapidly aging demographics, South Korea's economy has not adapted as well as the United States, a new study finds. The researchers, including Stanford health economist and director of the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC Karen Eggleston, show that age-friendly jobs attract a broad range of workers and that structural barriers in the labor market influence which groups can access these roles.

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Cover of the Journal of the Economics of Aging

Korea’s labor force shift toward older, female, and more educated workers has been even more dramatic than that of the United States in recent decades. This paper documents how Korean job characteristics vary by age and characterizes the “age-friendliness” of Korean employment from 2000 to 2020 by applying the Age-Friendliness Index (AFI) developed by Acemoglu, Mühlbach, and Scott to Korean occupational data. The AFI measures job characteristics—such as physical demands and job autonomy—based on occupational descriptions and worker preferences. Our primary empirical findings are that the age-friendliness of Korean jobs grew more slowly than in the United States, and that older Koreans were not the main beneficiaries of these jobs. Both findings reflect the demographic, labor market, and institutional differences between Korea and the United States. The slow growth of AFI can be partially explained by labor market rigidities, the role of large firms in Korea, and the flattening of managerial structures.

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  • We study how employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption.
  • Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector. 
  • We study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data.
  •  We find the share of nursing tasks performed by robots increases with adoption. 
  • Employment, retention, care quality, and productivity increase with robot adoption.


Summary
 

How do employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption? Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector, where robot adoption is expanding. As a first step towards filling this gap, we study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data that includes the different robots used and the tasks performed. We find that robot adoption is accompanied by an increase in employment and retention and the relationship is strongest for non-regular care workers and monitoring robots. The share of specific tasks performed by robots increases with the adoption of the respective type of robot, leading to reallocation of care worker effort to “human touch” tasks that support quality care. Robots are associated with improved quality (reduction in restraint use and pressure ulcers) and productivity.

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Karen Eggleston
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Across the world, societies are experiencing unprecedented demographic shifts as migration and aging reshape population landscapes. At the forefront of this global transformation is the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the countries of East Asia. Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific — a new book edited by APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, Deputy Director Karen Eggleston, and Joon-Shik Park, a professor in the Department of Sociology at Hallym University in Chuncheon, Korea — provides a multidisciplinary examination of the demographic challenges facing East Asian nations and possible solutions.

At a virtual book launch held on March 2, 2021, contributing chapter authors James FeyrerJoon-Shik Park, and Kenji Kushida joined Karen Eggleston to discuss their findings.

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Published in APARC’s in-house series, the book is the second volume resulting from APARC’s Stanford Asia-Pacific Research Innovation project. It collects the research findings of participants at the project’s third conference that was held in South Korea in June 2019.

James Liang, a research professor of economics at Peking University and a leading scholar of demographics and social studies, opened the event by situating the discussion about population structure in the context of the U.S.-China technology race. China is quickly catching up with the United States in the quality of its talent pool and the number of its labor resources. It will continue to outpace and surpass the United States in talent and innovation power in the next 10-20 years, Liang says.

China, however, is on a demographic cliff, facing severe population aging and low fertility rates. Its population of young workers aged 25-44 year-olds is projected to decline much faster and sooner than its overall population, leveling out against the labor and innovation gains the United States makes through the inflow of international talent into U.S. universities and entrepreneurial ventures. To sustain its long-term growth in labor quality and innovation, China will need higher birth rates and additional talent gains through migration, argues Liang.

James Feyrer’s book chapter examines the macroeconomic relationship between workforce demographics and aggregate productivity in Asia. Feyrer confirms that the high-income Asian nations like Japan and Korea, and even some middle-income countries of the region, will no longer enjoy a “demographic dividend” boosting aggregate productivity. However, he finds that the negative consequences of shifting to an older population structure may be less severe than previously projected, and even weakening with time. Feyrer believes this may be a result of improved food security and better overall health experienced by old cohorts in childhood, reinforcing the long-reaching impacts of healthcare on societal well-being.

Joon-Shik Park focused on the specific challenges facing Korean society, where birth rates have dropped severely. These historic declines continue to contribute to rising social and political unevenness across Korean society today. Initially seen most visibly in rural areas and smaller villages, Park’s now sees this unevenness affecting the dynamics of medium-sized towns and more urban areas as well. Korea and other aging societies must find viable solutions to address these issues if they are to prevent demographic divides from hobbling development and innovation, Park says.

Closing the book launch event, APARC Research scholar Kenji Kushida offers perspectives from rapidly aging Japan. where the challenges of shrinking and aging populations, rural-to-urban population distribution, and labor shortages spur advances in technology and innovation. Kushida documents this trend across multiple sectors.

He shows that drone technology has increased the productivity of short-staffed surveying firms, while AI-assisted industrial machines allow a broader range of laborers to work in manufacturing. Even in traditionally human-dominated environments like nursing homes, staff increasingly use robots to help improve the physical and mental well-being of elderly patients. Rather than strictly retarding growth, Kushida makes the case that demographic challenges serve as a catalyst for the development and implementation of new technologies.

As the research collected in Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific demonstrates, the challenges facing aging Asian societies are complex, but there is reason to look to the future with optimism. As the editors of the volume state in their introduction to the book, “Few concepts are as critical for sustained improvement in living standards as innovation.” New technologies and solutions will be foundational to addressing the challenges of the new demographic frontiers many societies are now approaching.

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Robot Adoption Brings Benefits to Japan’s Aging Society

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Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific
"Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific" examines the impacts of Asia's demographic challenges on the development of new technology and innovation.
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Contributing authors to the new volume 'Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific' convened for a virtual book launch and discussion of the challenges facing aging societies in East Asia and the roles technology and innovation may play in rebalancing them.

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Book cover showing a robotic hand holding an older human hand.

Demographic transition, along with the economic and geopolitical re-emergence of Asia, are two of the largest forces shaping the twenty-first century, but little is known about the implications for innovation. The countries of East Asia have some of the oldest age structures on the planet: between now and 2050, the population that is age 65 and older will increase to more than one in four Chinese, and to more than one in three Japanese and Koreans. Other economies with younger populations, like India, face the challenge of fully harnessing the “demographic dividend” from large cohorts in the working ages.

This book delves into how such demographic changes shape the supply of innovation and the demand for specific kinds of innovation in the Asia-Pacific. Social scientists from Asia and the United States offer multidisciplinary perspectives from economics, demography, political science, sociology, and public policy; topics range from the macroeconomic effects of population age structure, to the microeconomics of technology and the labor force, to the broader implications for human well-being. Contributors analyze how demography shapes productivity and the labor supply of older workers, as well as explore the aging population as consumers of technologies and drivers of innovations to meet their own needs, as well as the political economy of spatial development, agglomeration economies, urban-rural contrasts, and differential geographies of aging.

Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press.

Table of contents and chapter 1, introduction
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Technological progress boosts productivity and has made societies wealthier, but the impact of new digital technologies could be different from anything seen before. Some experts predict a future with robots and other forms of automation increasingly replacing workers, contributing to stagnant income, and worsening inequality. Yet it is difficult to pinpoint the net impact of advanced technologies on labor. There is anecdotal evidence that robotics and automation reduce manufacturing employment and wages, but evidence from the service sector remains scant. Collaborative research by APARC experts is now starting to fill this gap.

The researchers — including Karen Eggleston, APARC deputy director and director of the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP), Yong Suk Lee, the deputy director of the Korea Program, and University of Tokyo health economist Toshiaki Iizuka, a former AHPP visiting scholar — set out to probe the impact of robots on services provided in nursing homes in Japan. Their study, one of the first investigations of service sector robots, offers an offset to the dystopian predictions of robot job replacement.

Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the study suggests that robot adoption has increased employment opportunities for non-regular care workers, helped mitigate the turnover problem that plagues nursing homes, and provided greater flexibility for workers. It is also published in AHPP's working paper series and is part of a broader research project by Eggleston, Lee, and Iizuka, that explores the impact of robots on nursing home care in Japan and the implications of robotic technologies adoption in aging societies.

Since we are currently still in the early phase of robot diffusion in the service sector, researchers and policymakers need to continue to monitor and assess the extent to which robots complement or augment some types of labor while substituting for others.
Eggleston, Lee, and Iizuka

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Japan has been on the front lines of a demographic crisis, grappling with a declining overall population, increasing proportion of seniors, and aversion to large-scale immigration. It has also been an early adopter of robots to address the shortage of care workers relative to a growing demand for long-term care services. Japan’s experience is especially instructive as more countries face aging populations, helping shed light on how demographics interact with new automation technologies.

In a VoxEU.org article, Eggleston, Lee, and Iizuka describe their study, its findings, and its implications. Examining the relationship between robot adoption and nursing home staffing in Japan, they find that robot-adopting nursing homes had between 3% and 8% more staff than their non-adopting counterparts. The increases in staffing occurred entirely among the non-regular employees. Nursing homes with robots also appeared to have higher management quality and were better able to reduce the burden on care workers. The results suggest “that the wave of technologies that inspires fear in many countries could help remedy the social and economic challenges posed by population aging in others.”

The Financial Times Magazine has recently featured the study by Eggleston, Lee, and Iizuka, calling it “groundbreaking in several ways but perhaps most clearly for setting its sights not on manufacturing but on the services sector, where robots are only just beginning to make their mark.” The great value of the study, the article notes, is that it lays the foundation for an empirical debate “on a subject that will be deluged with human emotion as robots continue their march into the services sector.”

You can also listen to a Financial Times podcast that features the new study (the segment starts at 4:52).

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In one of the first studies of service sector robotics, APARC scholars examine the impacts of robots on nursing homes in Japan. They find that robot adoption may not be detrimental to labor and may help address the challenges of rapidly aging societies.

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Friction between machines and humans has existed since the beginning of the automated industry and machine-assisted work. It’s a trend that fuels the imaginations of pop culture and political debates alike as people voice worries about the roles increasingly sophisticated robots and technology are taking in society and workplaces.

But is this concern warranted? According to APARC’s Yong Suk Lee, the deputy director of the Korea Program and the SK Center Fellow at FSI, and Karen Eggleston, the deputy director of APARC and the director of the Asia Health Policy Program, perhaps not. A recent article published by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) highlights Lee and Eggleston’s ongoing research into innovative uses of technology across industries, particularly in healthcare. Their findings indicate that the adoption of robotics ultimately does more to augment and adjust, rather than outrightly replace, the role of human labor in the workplace.

What will ultimately matter is whether there will be entirely new occupations, what economists call the ‘reinstatement effect.’ Simply saying that robots lead to permanent job reductions isn’t the end of the story.
Yong Suk Lee
Deputy Director of the Korea Program

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Lee studies the impacts of AI and robotics across multiple industries, including manufacturing, retail banking, and nursing homes. A trend he sees across most sectors following the adoption of robotics or AI is a positive increase in productivity. This has impacts for both the short-term and long-term relationships between humans and their robot coworkers, or “co-bots.” While it is true that the introduction of automation and robots initially replaces a significant number of workers in sectors such as manufacturing, over time, that impact reverses and there are job gains in many cases.

“The impact of robots often evolves over time from replacing human workers to augmenting them,” Lee explains, “and productivity gains [can] create opportunities for existing and new occupations.” This happens in a variety of ways. In some cases, the use of robotics and automation in one area frees up time, labor, and resources to employ more people in other, higher-skilled areas. In another situation, increases in productivity brought on by automation allow for greater company growth than would not have been possible otherwise. This, in turn, spurs the need to expand the workforce.

Alternatively, supplementing the labor of a small workforce with robotics and AI can also spread limited resources much farther. Lee and Eggleston’s studies of the impacts of robots on nursing home care in Japan repeatedly show that the use of robots positively increases the quality of service that oftentimes-understaffed care facilities can provide to the elderly and infirm. This can range from monitoring the physical condition of patients and reliably delivering medications to providing mental and emotional support to elderly residents through the use of robotic humanoid companions. Such innovative use of tech fills critical gaps that a human-only workforce would struggle to meet in a staffing shortage like Japan faces.

Looking to the future, Lee shares this perspective: “When the automobile was invented, we suddenly had a new demand for drivers. Now we’ll have to see if [automation] creates demand for other new occupations.” It’s an area of innovation and research he, Dr. Eggleston, and other Stanford researchers will be closely watching with their human eyes in the years to come.

Read the original article by Stanford HAI here >>

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Yong Suk Lee and Karen Eggleston’s ongoing research into the impact of robotics and AI in different industries indicates that integrating tech into labor markets adjusts, but doesn’t replace, the long-term roles of humans and robots.

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The world’s population is aging at a faster rate and in larger cohorts than ever before. In countries like Japan that have low fertility rates and high life expectancy, population aging is a risk to social sustainability. Developing policies and healthcare infrastructure to support aging populations is now critical to the social, economic, and developmental wellbeing of all nations. As the COVID-19 pandemic has repeatedly shown, accurate projections of future population health status are crucial for designing sustainable healthcare services and social security systems.

Such projections necessitate models that incorporate the diverse and dynamic associations between health, economic, and social conditions among older people. However, the currently available models – known as multistate transition microsimulation models – require high-quality panel data for calibration and meaningful estimates. Now a group of researchers, including APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, has developed an alternative method that relaxes this data requirement.

In a newly published paper in Health Economics, Eggleston and her colleagues describe their study that proposes a novel approach using more readily-available data in many countries, thus promising more accurate projections of the future health and functional status of elderly and aging populations. This alternative method uses cross‐sectional representative surveys to estimate multistate‐transition contingency tables applied to Japan's population. When combined with estimated comorbidity prevalence and death record information, this method can determine the transition probabilities of health statuses among aging cohorts.

In comparing the results of their projections against a control, Eggleston and her colleagues show that traditional static models do not always accurately forecast the prevalence of some comorbid conditions such as cancer, heart disease, and stroke. While the sample sets used to test the new methodology originate in Japan, the proposed multistate transition contingency table method has important applications for aging societies worldwide. As rapid population aging becomes a global trend, the ability to produce robust forecasts of population health and functional status to guide policy is a universal need.

Read the full paper in Health Economics.

Learn more about Eggleston’s research projects >>

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Asia Health Policy Director Karen Eggleston and her colleagues unveil a multistate transition microsimulation model that produces rigorous projections of the health and functional status of older people from widely available datasets.

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Accurate future projections of population health are imperative to plan for the future healthcare needs of a rapidly aging population. Multistate‐transition microsimulation models, such as the U.S. Future Elderly Model, address this need but require high‐quality panel data for calibration. We develop an alternative method that relaxes this data requirement, using repeated cross‐sectional representative surveys to estimate multistate‐transition contingency tables applied to Japan's population. We calculate the birth cohort sex‐specific prevalence of comorbidities using five waves of the governmental health surveys. Combining estimated comorbidity prevalence with death record information, we determine the transition probabilities of health statuses.

We then construct a virtual Japanese population aged 60 and older as of 2013 and perform a microsimulation to project disease distributions to 2046. Our estimates replicate governmental projections of population pyramids and match the actual prevalence trends of comorbidities and the disease incidence rates reported in epidemiological studies in the past decade. Our future projections of cardiovascular diseases indicate lower prevalence than expected from static models, reflecting recent declining trends in disease incidence and fatality.

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Journal Articles
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Health Economics
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Karen Eggleston
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